Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,975
|
 |
« on: October 25, 2022, 03:20:33 PM » |
|
I think the race is tossup, but I don't understand the Laxalt hype for the following reasons:
1) Nevada polls tend to underestimate Ds, even in 2020 the RCP average was dead accurate. (I know it says Biden+2.7 for the final result, but it's actually Biden+2.4 RCP updated it too early)
2) CCM seems like a decent incumbent. She isn't a titanium individual like Manchin by any means, but her biggest problem is that people don't know who she is, not that she is very unpopular or anything.
3) Out of the "big 4" Senate races, Nevada went to Biden by the largest margin. I know that doesn't mean much, but it's important to note it was still bluer than AZ, GA, and PA in 2020 and is there any evidence that it is redder than them now?
Like I said, I'm not saying Laxalt can't win or anything, but I see so many people putting the race as seat 50 for the GOP. I think Rs have better odds here than AZ, but is it really an easier win than holding PA or flipping GA?
|
