GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The thing I fear is that as Perdue is a relatively strong candidate, or at least a credible one, the GOP will be tempted to throw a lot of money in this race, only to lose it by a small margin in the end.

There is nothing wrong to throw a lot of money into a race unless its something ridiculous like the McGrift movement or a hypothetical defeat Schumer one. Republicans only really have 4 potential pickups and they should invest as much as possible into them. The only real issue is if voters get angry over outside money coming in and too many ads being ran like what happened in Maine.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Walker only getting 68% in the primary IMO looks kinda rough for him. He had the whole thing to himself and couldn't even beat Kemp's share.

The RCP average had him at 65%, so he did still outperform the polling data. It just wasn't the same level as Kemp and Raffensperger.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Using Trump-Biden as the baseline
Walker just has to do 1 of these 3 things to win
1) Juice out the rurals a little more compared to Trump
2) Improve slightly on Trump in the suburbs (Walker doesn't even have to keep Gwinnett within 15% or Cobb within 10%)
3) Gain slightly with black voters compared to Trump or if black turnout decreases overall, he wins

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Could this be like Biden where if he just speaks sane he gets a win? The media is biased towards the Dems so probably not.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Walker says a lot of dumb stuff, but it's probably baked in the calculus already. If people haven't been turned off by his previous 1788 moments, I doubt more will hurt him unless it's like a Roy Moore one. Most people who think Walker is an idiot and dislike him are already in Warnock's camp, but he is still well under 50%.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Walker looks great for someone 60 years old.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Katie Hobbs doesn't debate > death knell for her campaign, everyone obsesses over it
Walker refuses to debate, has an empty podium tonight > meh, whatever!

Anyway... this has shades of the Ossoff debate now

https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1581782406885167104

Don't get me wrong, I think Walker should have debated here. However, there was literally a debate between them just 3 days ago so it's not as big of a deal as avoiding any debate at all.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Warnock is just unable to put this away as Walker just keeps crawling back. The first abortion scandal didn't seem to work, so now they have to pull out a second. Next time they should claim Walker gave one of his dogs to Dr Oz's lab expiriments and that might just do it. Honestly though, I think this goes to a runoff and Walker's best bet for winning that is Rs already have 51+ seats after November.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's interesting that the guy who lost Georgia twice is doing a better job campaigning than the sitting president who won it.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1586846185859465216

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Walker is viewed as the pro-life and pro-family candidate even if he has a somewhat questionable past because his opponent is a pro-choice pastor. That's why the race is still a tossup.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If you were the Walker campaign or the GA GOP how would you play your cards for the runoff? It's pretty clear Walker isn't favored at this point, but there still has to be some path to victory for him. I would do a few things.
1) Keep Trump out of the race at all costs, he will drive up Dem turnout and many Rs are starting to get sick of him. This applies to people like Loeffler or Perdue as well, although I doubt they even care that much. The only people who should be leading rallies in Georgia are Kemp, DeSantis, Youngkin, and maybe Zeldin. They are probably the most popular figures in the GOP at this point. Bonus points if you can get Raffensperger's support.
2) Still frame it as if the senate matters. Say an R vote will lead to conservative agenda being able to pass and holding Biden accountable. If its possible, even straight up say Senate control is still at stake even though that is a lie. You gotta push that the election matters.
3)Shut tf up, just be a blank slate for conservatism. Walker has a habit of saying weird things he needs to play as safely as possible. Let Kemp and DeSantis do the talking.
4) Push for early vote. Despite what many stopthestealers and Trump may say, you need to get your voters out and locked in as quickly as possible. Hedging everything on ED turnout is not a smart move... Support VBM if that's what it takes.
5) Tie Warnock to Abrams - its worth a shot. She is not popular and you need to try to connect that to Warnock. If they are going to try to tie Walker to Trump he needs to fire back somehow.

I still think Warnock is favored in the runoff rn, but Walker's campaign needs to thing long and hard about this if they are still in it to win it.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1593343994041405442

Kiss of death

[Arizona Iced Tea]

After tonights Performance JON OSSOFF for me is a sure GONER in 2026 regardless if it's a Biden or Republican Midterm bcuz he won't be able to replicate the Warnock Coalition from 2021 and 2022.

You sound like a well-paid, high-ranking GOP strategist

Was gonna say, Warnock’s metro margins in 2022 will probably be a worse case scenario for Ossoff come 2026 based on migration change alone LOL

LOL, are you kidding me! Ossoff ain't going to squeeze off anymore Votes out of Cobb, Gwinnett, Fulton, DeKalb, etc. Tonight was pretty much worse case scenario in GA for R's unless Trump is the Nominee. If Kemp, Chris Carr, Burt Jones or Geoff Duncan run for Senate in 2026 they will post better Numbers.

I think you are a good poster dude, but please stop this is just embarrassing.