1968

[dunn]

nixon home state in 68' was ny and he really is from ca. was he not?

[dunn]

he even tried running for ca governor in 62'. so he was registered in ny but that was not really anykind of 'home' state

[dunn]

A 4% swing outside the South would put New Jersey, Delaware (if that counts), Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Missouri (if that counts), California and Alaska into the Democratic column.
That's 305 EVs against 187 (or 188) for Nixon, 46 (or 45) for Wallace.
290 without Missouri or Delaware.
A three point swing would throw the election into the House.

4% is a lot

[dunn]

A 4% swing outside the South would put New Jersey, Delaware (if that counts), Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Missouri (if that counts), California and Alaska into the Democratic column.
That's 305 EVs against 187 (or 188) for Nixon, 46 (or 45) for Wallace.
290 without Missouri or Delaware.
A three point swing would throw the election into the House.

4% is a lot

A 4% percent swing in the sense that 2% of the population go from voting Republican to voting Democrat.

understood, still alot. in a trend like that bush-Dukakis would be instead of 426-111    306-231