🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Pick Up the Phone]

The result was a disaster for the sum of left/center-left parties. Linke+SPD+Grüne had only 1/4 of the total vote. Sachsen-Anhalt is not a conservative state like Sachsen. I saw now in Wikipedia that the sum of red red green had ~1/2 of the total vote in Sachsen-Anhalt in 2006 and 2011.

I may have written this before but it doesn't make any sense to think in these 'bloc' categories (SPD+LINKE+GRÜNE vs. CDU+FDP) when discussing German politics. Many Green voters would never vote for the LINKE but have no problems with the CDU (or are even former CDU supporters). Many LINKE voters detest the SPD but like the anti-system attitude of the AfD. And many SPD voters are pragmatists who feel nostalgic about the sozialliberale coalition their party once had with the FDP.

This is the first point. The second is that Saxony-Anhalt is hardly indicative of any general trend. It is a sparsely populated, aging, demographically crippled (the state lost 25% of its population since 1990!), economically weak Eastern German state where a popular incumbent just won a low-profile election. Meanwhile, in neighboring Thuringia, the LINKE is polling around 35% - which shows you that this has nothing to do with party ideology and everything to do with contextual factors.

The future of the left/center-left in Germany doesn't look like bright. According to the exit polls, Linke and SPD perform better in the group of >60 voters. In the west, the Linke performed better in the group of young voters, but this party has low share of vote in every age group. SPD performs better in the group of senior voters in the west too.

Unlike what is happening in the english speaking countries, in Germany, the millennials don't vote on the left of their parents and grandparents.

I really don't see any evidence for this argument. Compared to the last 10-15 years, the German 'center-left' is in great shape. And obviously, Germany's millennials are clearly to the left of their parents. Just consider the last 'federal' election (i.e. the 2019 European Election).

Greens (Age 18-24 = 34%):



CDU (Age 18-24 = 12%):



AfD (Age 18-24 = 5%):

[Pick Up the Phone]

I mean, a review of their Wahlprogramm

Which rarely gives one a realistic idea of a party's ideological coordinates.

indicates they want to cut corporation taxes, raise the income level at which you start paying the top rate of income tax, limit social spending, continue privatising the railway and, absolutely insane given the current circumstances - bring the public debt back under 60% of GDP. In stark contrast to Baerbock, who is open to investment funding deficit spending.

This is a minor issue, at least for the Greens. Neither Baerbock nor Habeck are hardliners when it comes to questions of taxation or public spending. It's not why people vote for them and they know it.

While the FDP may have a "social wing" (even the Swiss one does ftr), the centre of gravity of the party is very definitely on the political right

Depends on what you define as 'the right' - the German political debate in the 2010s/2020s revolves almost exclusively around social issues and not around taxation or the welfare state. The latter are considered of secondary importance by almost all parties and also by most voters. It might be that you give too much weight to them?

And when it comes to social issues, the FDP (and especially its your wing, the JuLis) has been in the vanguard on a wide range of matters: same-sex marriage, cannabis legalization, assisted suicide, surrogate motherhood, trans issues, immigration policy... In this sense, the party is indeed much closer to the Greens than to the CDU. And the same is true for the demographic composition of its electorate (younger, more educated, more urban, less religious).

[Pick Up the Phone]

Why it was considered a so important issue the CDU to have more votes than the AfD?

Because many people, journalists included, don't understand our political system and care for symbolic "wins".

I would contest this. They care for symbolic 'wins' BECAUSE they know how the German political system works.

[Pick Up the Phone]

I remember a similar back and forth on Macron in 2017, but being progressive on cultural issues is not enough to make a party left wing.

Well, I didn't call the FDP left-wing. I also wouldn't call the Greens left-wing. All I did was pointing at the various similarities between both parties. And these similarities obviously exist.

The FDP quite clearly and explicitely sets itself as being in favour of more free markets, less state intervention, a smaller welfare state. A party that takes those lines can not ever be understood as a party of the political left, regardless of its attitude towards trans rights or refugees.

Again, I haven't even insinuated that the FDP is left-wing. It seem that you have mistaken my argument?

And not that it matters - but I would indeed claim that a party's position on immigration is today a much better indicator of its ideological core than its position on the welfare state. Your categorization appears a little dogmatic/static in this regard.  

And even if they aren't the most emotional topic right now, I dip in and out of following German politics enough to know that things like the Corona debt, or even Hartz IV are topics that get coverage.

Sure, they get coverage. But I still believe that you greatly overestimate their relative importance. Statista has actually a nice poll of Germany's "most important problems" (change between Spring 2018 and Winter 2020):

Environment/Climate Change: 14% -> 27% (No 1 issue after COVID/Health)
Economy: 3% -> 23% (mostly COVID-related)
Education: 22% -> 22%
Inflation: 10% -> 14%
Unemployment: 8% -> 12% (mostly COVID-related)
Housing: 20% -> 12%
(...)
Pensions: 16% -> 7%
Taxes: 3% -> 3%

People care about the general state of the economy or COVID-induced unemployment, no doubt. But they certainly don't care about lower corporate taxes or the like. If anything, I would even assume that a considerable number of center-left voters would support them if it helps the economy to recover.

I mean, I know there is a contextual imperative to downplay this in light of a potential future traffic light coalition - but it doesn't change the fact that a party that supports free markets and a redistribution of wealth in favour of the wealthy is a right wing party.

Again, I think that's a pretty dogmatic view that I would certainly not agree with. Being 'right-wing' is something different in my books - namely, an anti-egalitarian worldview that necessarily transcends the redistributive dimension.

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Economic positions really don't matter in the German perception of the left-right concept. Right and left are almost fully associated with cultural conservatism or progressivism.

Indeed. In Germany, no one would call a market liberal party a "right-wing" party. It doesn't make any sense.

[Pick Up the Phone]

AfD Thuringia will introduce a motion of no confidence against Minister-President Bodo Remelow this week. The motion would only succeed with a majority of votes (46 of 90) electing a successor and the AfD has proposed Björn Bernd Höcke. It's doomed to fail obviously, as CDU and FDP have rejected the move immediately.

I despise Höcke, but he knows how to play politics (which makes him especially dangerous). The motion of no confidence was - strategically speaking - the best idea the AfD could have.

Not so sure. Pretty pointless to do it now when nobody pays real attention to Thuringia and the floods + #Laschetgate + Baerbock's CV continue to dominate the news. It's not February anymore.

I also don't think that Höcke knows 'how to play politics' but consider him rather incompetent. All he knows is how to create media headlines, which is not particularly difficult if you talk about "memorials of shame" and "ausschwitzen". But ultimately, he is much more of a media phenomenon (remember the SPIEGEL cover) than of an actual threat.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Wow, CDU now almost 10 points ahead. Pretty humiliating for the SPD - and especially for Kuschaty.

I also liked Lindner’s reaction to the FDP’s terrible result: “We should not forget that last time, when I was lead candidate, we did great...”

But, yeah, Black-Green is by far the most likely option. Merz should keep an eye on Wüst though - he could be a serious competitor by 2025.

[Pick Up the Phone]

SH: Surprisingly, the Greens have decided against another five years of Jamaica - “there is no common foundation for a coalition in which one of the partners is not needed.”

Sounds strange and Günther seems irritated. Now he has no choice but Black-Yellow (or Black-Green but that would be a little ridiculous).

[Pick Up the Phone]

SH: Surprisingly, the Greens have decided against another five years of Jamaica - “there is no common foundation for a coalition in which one of the partners is not needed.”

Sounds strange and Günther seems irritated. Now he has no choice but Black-Yellow (or Black-Green but that would be a little ridiculous).

I guess black-yellow may cause some backlash because it's not what people "voted for". Sure, there's a majority, but it seems to me black-green is easily preferred from the electorate.

Yes, Black-Green is the objectively better choice (and probably also favored by Günther). But it would be ridiculous to first let the Greens kick the FDP out and then reward them for it.