🇩🇪 German state & local elections (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2024, 05:59:54 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  🇩🇪 German state & local elections (search mode)
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4
Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German state & local elections  (Read 131537 times)
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #25 on: November 18, 2019, 02:56:23 PM »

The majority of the GRÜNEN members in Brandenburg (90.8%) have voted in favor of a so-called Kenya coalition with SPD and CDU. Their approval was the last pending issue - now the rest is a mere formality. Will be only the second time we see this coalition on the state level.

Dietmar Woidke (SPD) will continue to lead the future coalition with the SPD getting five (State Chancellery; Finance; Education; Economy and Labor; Science), the CDU three (Interior; Infrastructure; Justice), and the GRÜNEN two (Environment and Agriculture; Social Affairs, Women, and Health) cabinet positions. Personally, I'm not too happy with this; I think that the GRÜNEN could have aimed quite a bit higher.

In Saxony, coalition talks between the three same partners are supposed to be completed by the end of the year. Thuringia... well, nothing new on this front. The state CDU remains paralyzed and refuses to hold talks with the LINKE while the state AfD tries to unnerve Mohring and friends.

_____

Meanwhile, the SPD benefits from the basic pension for low-income workers that was recently passed. According to Trend Research/Radio Hamburg, they are now back in first place in the North. Change from the last election in brackets:

Hamburg 2020

CDU: 13.0% (-2.9)
SPD: 32.0% (-13.6)
GRÜNE: 23.0% (+10.7)
FDP: 7.0% (-0.4)
LINKE: 12.0% (+3.5)
AfD: 8.0% (+1.9)
Others: 4.0% (-0.2)
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #26 on: December 15, 2019, 11:14:20 PM »

It looks like the Kenya coalition in Sachsen-Anhalt could break up over the far-right past (and present) of a CDU Landtag member.

This guy is not even a Landtag member but an ordinary party member who represents the CDU in some boring district level committees. And the problem is evidently not his far-right past(?) but rather that the state CDU refuses to take appropriate action (i.e. kick him out of the party). The GRÜNEN have every right to be appalled and disgusted.

For some strange reason, the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt is really running wild at the moment. A few weeks ago, the Minister of the Interior, Holger Stahlknecht, tried to appoint a controversial police union leader called Rainer Wendt (who is quite famous in Germany for his extremely populist claims and hypocritical behavior) to the position of Staatssekretär (basically the highest-ranked civil servant in a state ministry). Both SPD and GRÜNE firmly rejected this appointment; and then it turned out that Wendt was prohibited from getting such a promotion for legal reasons. Subsequently, the CDU faction almost mutinied against Stahlknecht who was accused of gross incompetence and political stupidity. Another low point was the state party convention last week, when the delegates agreed on a manifesto according to which "Islam doesn't belong to Germany" - a frontal attack against Merkel, former President Christian Wulff, and many others from the more moderate CDU wing who repeatedly stated that Islam belongs to Germany and is an important part of contemporary German culture. One might agree or not, but the idea that a few (overwhelmingly white, male, Christian, and old) CDU state delegates decide about German identity in the 21st century is laughable. It's neither their job, nor is there any strategic advantage in going full AfD in a Kenya coalition...

And now this. It seems that they haven't learned anything. Time for Merkel or AKK to call Haseloff and tell him to get his sh*t together.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #27 on: December 16, 2019, 07:32:29 PM »

The Greens should mind their own business. They're gonna bring down a coalition over the non-expulsion of some local party member who claims he's no longer a member of the far right?

Doesn't really matter what this nazi is claiming. He was a member of the far-right Uniter network until, uh... yesterday (and apparently only quit under mounting pressure)? He has a Black Sun tattoo and still holds that the only reason is his "interest in Celtic mythology"? All right, seems totally convincing to me.

But, as I already said, the problem is indeed not him but rather the state CDU and its toxic combination of incompetence and right-wing populist tendencies. Given the full scope of recent developments, the GRÜNEN have every reason to contemplate whether they want to maintain such as coalition or not. The Wendt affair was already enough of a scandal but with its stubbornness in the Mörike affair, the state CDU proves that it doesn't really care about the fight against the extreme right. And that should be a major problem for the GRÜNEN.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #28 on: February 05, 2020, 12:41:23 PM »

The FDP Bundestag Caucus' deputy leader (and former Vice President of the European Parliament) Alexander Graf Lambsdorff has just tweeted that Thomas Kemmerich should resign immediately.

Kemmerich is such an idiot, it is incredible. His only chance now is to immediately step down and offer a public apology for accepting his election. Otherwise, we'll see new state elections very soon, which will most likely end in a disaster for both CDU and FDP.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #29 on: February 05, 2020, 12:45:25 PM »

Next CDU-FDP-AfD cooperation candidate is Saxony-Anhalt, where Greens and CDU despise each other, and several district level CDU barons are calling for a CDU minority government supported by AfD and FDP.

After what happened today, there won't be any 'next' - the backlash we see right now is way too massive and AKK, Söder, and Ziemiak made it clear that any sort of (informal) cooperation with the AfD is not acceptable. And other than Mohring, Haseloff will do what they tell him.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #30 on: February 05, 2020, 12:47:57 PM »

This is very ironic that all the discussion is on the FDP and Kemmerich when to me the real story is the vote of the much larger CDU bloc voting for Kemmerich.  If the CDU was so concerned about Kemmerich winning with a AFD backed plurality vote, all they needed to do was abstain and let Ramelow be reelected.

Correct. The CDU's goal was to get rid of Ramelow and now that they got what they wanted, they throw Kemmerich under the bus. They are as much to blame as the FDP.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #31 on: February 06, 2020, 03:19:22 PM »

Looking at that poll, what happens in the plausible scenario where all of SPD, Greens and FDP fall below threshold?

Interesting question.... maybe Left and CDU agree to support a non-partisan government of experts? There aren't really much options left.
Communists supporting a government of "expert" i.e. liberal clerks. now that's something

The LINKE in Thuringia is everything but communist. Not even on paper. In fact, it's probably even more social democratic than the SPD.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #32 on: February 06, 2020, 03:23:07 PM »

Honestly, the FDP is the most unlikely party to drop under 5 %, Mr Kemmerich is beloved by those who hate Mr Ramelow.

I disagree. Kemmerich looks like a failure and a joke now who has been played by the AfD and then thrown under the bus. I can't imagine anyone "loving" him. It's even unclear whether he'll run again for parliament in the upcoming snap election. And considering the Left's election results and polling numbers, hatred against Ramelow is a fringe position in Thuringia. His approval rating is high across the supporters of pretty much any party with the exception of maybe the AfD (but they tend to hate everyone).

Did you talk about that to your colleagues again? Well, my East German parents are happy that Kemmerich's is gone so quickly, including my formerly FDP-suppporting dad.

Mr Kemmerich: Personally, I totally agree. Don't think I appreciated anything at him. I am glad that he is as good as gone. In every western state, he would be burnt toast.
But even if 80 % of the electorate in Thuringia consider him a laughinh stock, if only half of the rest votes for him, he would gain votes. And his campaign followed Mr. Lindner's playbook quite closely (seemingly anti-refugee or AfD-lite).

Poltical talk: Not yet. Usually, I don't talk about politics this much and avoid this as potential conflict source. Some have a "distinct opinion" about the Left and left-leaning policies, to say the least.

And please consider the article I linked: A good portion of the CDU/FDP voters and functionaries approve of a collaboration with the AfD for the sake of political positions. These adverse interests (local vs. federal) will prove as millstone in an election campaign. The functionaries at the base of these parties want something real for their motivation. A "expert government" is no motivation, just perceived as cover for the federal CDU and western state CDUs.
could with in 20 years you see a cdu and fdp working with the afd?

If the AfD changes completely and abandons 90% of its (mostly far-right and racist) positions: Maybe. If not: No.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #33 on: February 06, 2020, 03:25:43 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2020, 03:33:30 PM by Pick Up the Phone »

Just wondering what would happen if say the afd ever won a outright majority in any of the Landtag?

Won't happen but would probably lead to major riots in the street and total chaos in Berlin.

If the AfD won the election fair and square, the federal government would have to accept the outcome. But there are other ways to render a state government incapable of governing.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #34 on: February 06, 2020, 05:42:39 PM »

So, the current situation is that - similar to Christian Lindner earlier today - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer personally went down to Erfurt to meet Mike Mohring and the rest of the Thuringian CDU. For 8.30 p.m. a joint press conference of AKK and Mohring had been scheduled. 8:30 p.m. was about two hours ago. Current rumours indicate to a very heated discussion behind closed doors, AKK setting the Thuringians the ultimatum that they need to accept a snap election, and so on.

Really hope that AKK finds the right words here. It is unbearable that her authority is challenged by a loser like Mohring and a few backbenchers from a state with less inhabitants than Munich + suburbs.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #35 on: February 08, 2020, 10:26:42 PM »

Let's take a deep breath and look back on this week's event. What did I learn from it?

(...)


Good summary with which I can basically agree. I would add that this is a major strategic defeat for the AfD and perhaps the most important one so far. The massive backlash from all(!) sides has turned the party so toxic that no career conscious CDU/FDP politician will even greet one of his AfD colleagues in the hallway anymore. It might take years, if not decades, to change this again.

It was also amazing to see how powerful Merkel still is. Widely considered a lame duck, it was her verdict ("inexcusable") that ultimately sealed Kemmerich's fate and forced Lindner to act. Her influence (and moral authority) shouldn't be underestimated.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #36 on: February 09, 2020, 08:00:47 PM »

Does it make any sense to even refer to Die Linke as “far left” anymore? They have led a government in Thuringia for the last few years. Have they nationalized all the banks and industries? Have they put non-socialists in re-education camps? Have they done anything at all that could be considered especially radical?

Not at all. As written earlier, the LINKE in the Eastern states is actually quite pragmatic and moderate; the true radicals are almost all in the West (+Berlin). Basically, Ramelow governed like a left-leaning social democrat and the fact that he had to consider the wishes of not only one but two coalition partners further moderated his position on many issues. The same was true for the LINKE in Brandenburg (which is now governed by SPD-CDU).

On the federal level, I would still classify the LINKE as far-left (but as less "far" than 5 or 10 years ago - also because of the fact that Sahra Wagenknecht has been ousted).
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #37 on: February 09, 2020, 08:04:03 PM »

Ironic the west didn’t want to work with the moderate afd

It's unclear and it doesn't really come across what you're trying to say here.

I also don't get the part about "the moderate AfD". There is no moderate AfD. The only meaningful difference here is between radicals and extremists.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #38 on: February 17, 2020, 12:28:36 AM »

With elections next year and some polls suggesting a Red-Red-Green coalition would have majority, if that happens is it likely to form or will you more likely see another Grand Coalition.  Black-Green grand coalition seems most likely although Jamaica coalition possible but probably too difficult as didn't work out last time.  On other hand if CDU chooses someone more right wing like Merz, could he attract a lot of AfD supporters over and do so without alienating moderates?

While this is on state not national, will what is happening in Thuringia have spillovers nationally or not?  Lots of times it seems like state elections have little correlation with federal and also I believe in state elections turnout tends to be much lower than in federal too so will this have any impact or as usual will it be irrelevant?

That's a difficult question. First and foremost because there haven't been any indications of Red-Red-Green (or: Green-Red-Red) becoming a realistic possibility until recently. I assume that the leadership of the GRÜNEN prefers it in principle, but only if the LINKE can be tamed and gets rid of some of its more controversial positions (the party still wants to leave the NATO etc.). And only if there is a solid enough majority (meaning: 5/10+ seats).

Entering a coalition with both SPD and LINKE has several advantages for the GRÜNEN. The most obvious one is that they would be by far the strongest party in this alliance and thus able to pit their junior partners against each other. Without the CDU, there also would be better chances to implement progressive policies and change the overall direction of German politics. On the other hand, working with a weakened and desperate SPD and a potentially unpredictable LINKE for four years could be perceived as a gamble. Black-Green/Green-Black is certainly less of a risk. Jamaica seems to be a merely theoretical option at this point that won't happen as long as one of the other coalition models remains possible.

If I would have to rank them in order of likelihood:

1. Black-Green
2. Green-Black
3. Green-Red-Red (mainly because I have my doubts that they will be able to get a majority)
4. Jamaica
5. FDP with AfD support Tongue

Concerning the second question, I really doubt that there will be any lasting effects. Sure, the optics are quite bad for both CDU and FDP at the moment - but since they apologized for what happened in Thuringia and decided to blame their state parties, it probably won't matter too much.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #39 on: February 21, 2020, 04:39:13 PM »

Pretty bad deal for the CDU. On the other hand, it's probably the best one they could have hoped for.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #40 on: September 13, 2020, 10:11:47 AM »

SPD looking set to lose more ground than CDU, though?

Always a safe bet. Wink

After all, NRW is one of only a few states where the SPD is still in a position to lose much ground...
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #41 on: September 13, 2020, 11:27:57 AM »

Exit polls



Very solid CDU result. And SPD not as bad as expected (although -8% is still underwhelming). Little surprised that Reker (Cologne mayor running for re-election; supported by CDU and GRÜNE) seems to be below 50%.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #42 on: September 13, 2020, 11:37:08 AM »
« Edited: September 13, 2020, 11:41:57 AM by Pick Up the Phone »


Dortmund city council results (projection). Dortmund is a traditional SPD stronghold; the party dominated city politics for more than 70 years. After today, they will control less than a third of all council seats.


Cologne city council results (projection again). Green dominance.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #43 on: September 13, 2020, 03:03:19 PM »

Overview...

CDU: Some minor losses, but overall solid performance and better than mostly expected. This result will rather strengthen Laschet than weaken him and once again shows that CDU is the only "large party" remaining.

SPD: Ouch. Losing several of their strongholds and might get defeated in important cities (Düsseldorf...) in runoffs.

Greens: Good results in total, strengthening their position to be in 2nd spot in federal elections next year.

AfD: Gains on paper, but it should be noted that AfD didn't file candidates in many cities six years ago. Not great, not terrible, but really not overwhelming.

FDP: Very weak. They're governing in NRW and still lost in comparison to the terrible result of 2014. This election will make it even more questionable how long Christian Lindner will be leader after a likely underwhelming result next year.

Left: Weak. They lost (mostly in favor of Greens), I personally wonder whether the "radical" wings' presence in last week following the Navalny murder attempt could have hurt them. Not good sign for a possible reentrance into state parliament in 2022.

PARTEI: Gains overall, usual left protest vote.

VOLT: Remarkable result for a grassroots movement. They outperformed FDP in Cologne and might hurt both FDP and Greens as they are a progressive, liberal and pan-European party. Could see them gaining 1-2 % in next federal elections.

Agree.

There are two winners tonight: The Greens and Armin Laschet. The former got some strong results, especially in urban areas and have shown again that they are the future of the German center-left. The latter has avoided a loss which could have severely harmed his chances to become CDU leader. Now, NRW is pacified once again.

As I had remarked before, the SPD's result is weak but still better than expected. Fortunately, they did not lose enough voters to find themselves in third place. If this had happened... well...

I would also question if anything the LINKE did at the federal level was a factor today. Especially not this Navalny story which is of no interest to the average voter. The truth is that after the sacking of Wagenknecht (which was the correct decision), the LINKE has failed to (a) exercise any control over the political agenda and (b) give their young and urban voters a good reason why they should not switch to the Greens. The party has hardly anything to offer at the moment.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #44 on: December 02, 2020, 05:56:14 PM »

Underwhelming result for the center-left, but that is essentially the fallout of the Stuttgart21 disaster.

Should be a warning shot for whenever Kretschmann retires, though. I think the only person who has enough profile to succeed him is Özdemir, but he may have greater Ambitions in Berlin. If he doesn't want to, the Greens are probably going run into a lot of trouble.

Not sure if Özdemir has so many career options left. He spectacularly failed to become foreign minister when Lindner and Kubicki pulled out of the Jamaica coalition negotiations. Then he failed to replace Hofreiter as chairman of the parliamentary group. He may still harbor ambitions but so do many others in Berlin. And some of them may have broader support and therefore better chances to get a cabinet position in 2021. Especially when it comes to the high-profile jobs (i.e., not agriculture or transportation).

Running in Baden-Württemberg as Kretschmann’s successor seems like an elegant way out.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #45 on: December 02, 2020, 08:28:39 PM »

Underwhelming result for the center-left, but that is essentially the fallout of the Stuttgart21 disaster.

Should be a warning shot for whenever Kretschmann retires, though. I think the only person who has enough profile to succeed him is Özdemir, but he may have greater Ambitions in Berlin. If he doesn't want to, the Greens are probably going run into a lot of trouble.

Not sure if Özdemir has so many career options left. He spectacularly failed to become foreign minister when Lindner and Kubicki pulled out of the Jamaica coalition negotiations. Then he failed to replace Hofreiter as chairman of the parliamentary group. He may still harbor ambitions but so do many others in Berlin. And some of them may have broader support and therefore better chances to get a cabinet position in 2021. Especially when it comes to the high-profile jobs (i.e., not agriculture or transportation).

Running in Baden-Württemberg as Kretschmann’s successor seems like an elegant way out.

I'm pretty sure Tübingen Mayor Boris Palmer will succeed Kretschmann as MP.
He may be a very polarizing political figure, but his divisive policies are very popular among conservatives, plus he has been a guest on every possible talk show for over a decade now, thus having become well-known among the electorate.
He wanted to become the MP ten years ago anyway, and he was reported to be very affronted and enraged about the party establishment's decision to choose Kretschmann over him.

By the way, with Kuhn leaving office, there is no Green mayor of a city in Baden-Württemberg with >100,000 citizens ("Großstadt") left anymore.

Not sure if you're serious about this. Palmer is totally isolated within the state party and quite a few high-level party leaders of the Baden-Württemberg GRÜNE would love nothing more than to expel him as soon as possible.* And while he may be quite popular among some soft conservatives and Swabian housewives, he is absolutely detested by the rest of the party base. And I really mean detested. Even considering to nominate him would tear the party apart and severely endanger the Greens' current dominance among urbanites, migrants, U30, and the academic middle class.

I would also say that 'polarizing' is quite an understatement. He repeatedly made racist remarks, coined terms such as Menschenrechtsfundamentalismus (human rights fundamentalism), and was publicly accused of narcissism (Roth), social Darwinism (Kuhn) and xenophobia (the whole federal parliamentary group) by his fellow Greens. Even worse, he downplayed the dangers of COVID-19 and literally asked if the lives of the elderly are worth the lockdown measures.

There's probably a higher chance of Stefan Mappus getting his second term than of Palmer being anywhere near the Villa Reitzenstein.
___

*In May 2020, the Baden-Württemberg GRÜNE called on Palmer to leave the party voluntarily while announcing that they would not support him for another mayoral run in 2022.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #46 on: March 08, 2021, 07:29:33 PM »

Looking at that Thuringia poll, and given that a negative majority seems almost a certainty again; I wonder when will any German state eventually "bite the bullet" and go with some sort of CDU-FDP-AfD coalition (doesn't even need to be a proper coalition, standard toleration would work).

The answer is: 'Never' - especially not with the AfD being a Verdachtsfall for the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. It is more likely that the party gets dissolved than that the CDU will ever enter into a state level cooperation. Let alone the FDP (for which it would be political suicide).

Even CDU-LINKE is ten times more likely. And it is unlikely enough.

Honestly cordon sanitaires are unsustainable and eventually end up backfiring.

Disagree. They work just well.

I'd rather have AfD giving external support with 10% of the vote, than it growing to 25% because "all parties are the same, they don't care about us" and them getting to lead a minority government of some sort or more likely forcing dumb coalitions like CDU-Linke (or eventually 50% but I will admit the party growing that much is nearly impossible).

There is no guarantee that the AfD will lose support once in power. Quite the contrary is possible. 

And even if we hypothetically assume that such a guarantee exists, there is still one important point to consider: In the first scenario (AfD at 25% but maintaining total opposition), the only real downside is that the other parties will have a harder time forming a coalition. In the second scenario (AfD at 10% but providing outside support), (a) the AfD's racist and xenophobic positions are legitimized; (b) the AfD has actual power over policy-making; (c) the AfD can blackmail the ruling coalition at any time.

I have no doubt which scenario is better for German democracy.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #47 on: March 09, 2021, 08:19:04 PM »

The answer is: 'Never' - especially not with the AfD being a Verdachtsfall for the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. It is more likely that the party gets dissolved than that the CDU will ever enter into a state level cooperation. Let alone the FDP (for which it would be political suicide).

Even CDU-LINKE is ten times more likely. And it is unlikely enough.

Disagree. They work just well.

Not really, just look at Thuringia. The fact that there is a negative majority there means the cordon sanitaire has 100% unambiguously failed. There is no question about that.

Quite the contrary! There is no 'negative majority' of any sort, just a little bit of political theater until the CDU/CSU decides to tolerate Ramelow's R2G "for the sake of democracy". Estrella is spot on here.

The AfD, by contrast, remains powerless and completely isolated. As it should be.

Yeah I know there is no guarantee that they'd go down after a coalition but they are a party that gets 15% of the vote and up to 25% in certain states. Given just how many people vote for them, why shouldn't they be normalized gradually?

They got 12.6% of the vote. Four years ago. They currently poll between 9.0% and 11.0%. In addition, their last state election results were pretty bad (they almost missed the electoral threshold in Hamburg), they are on track to underperform their 2016 results in BW and RLP this week, and only poll around 6.0% in NRW, Germany's most populous state...

Also, nobody cares if the AfD occasionally gets 20+% in the East German wilderness. But everybody would care if one of the other parties were to break up the cordon sanitaire. Basically all relevant actors agree that integrating the AfD into the political system would have devastating consequences; not only for German democracy but also for the parties doing it. It would completely delegitimize them and tear them apart.

Linke was also not normalized at one point and that was a mistake in my opinion; leading to the disastrous grand coalitions of 2005 (Red-Red-Green or Traffic Lights should have been the pick there) and to a lesser extent 2013 (R2G had a majority though I'll admit going for it would have been slightly undemocratic)

Indeed, but the public perception of LINKE and AfD is fundamentally different: The LINKE is often treated with suspicion but the AfD with outright contempt and hatred. It is by far the most toxic party in Germany's post-war history (with the exception of the NPD perhaps).
__________

Edit: I fully agree with what Old Europe has written on the 'bloc question'. There are literally zero similarities between a socially liberal but fiscally conservative party like the FDP (which is not right-wing!) and the quasi-socialist neo-nazis of the AfD. Zero.
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #48 on: March 11, 2021, 09:43:14 PM »

You could as well have written that the AfD is only one of two parties (if you consider the Union one party: three), in the near future maybe even the only party, that is represented in each and every state parliament, that even managed to get re-elected into the Bürgerschaften of states where the Antifa controls all four divisions of power.

Absolutely irrelevant. Strong emphasis on 'irrelevant'. And with all due respect - but you are in need of psychological help if you think that the 'Antifa' is in control of any German state. Unless you are simply referring to the SPD...



No, seriously, you overestimate the importance of the AfD. It is a weak and impotent party that has clearly missed its window of opportunity. In terms of actual politics, its existence is only inasmuch relevant as it ensures that the 'traditional blocs' (i.e., CDU/CSU-FDP and SPD-GRÜNE) won't get a majority on their own any time soon. And this obviously helps the CDU.


In your dreams perhaps. There is nothing right-wing about the FDP barring some sort of market liberalism. I also don't know any serious political scientist who would classify the FDP that way.


Now, that's something I would want to see. Proof? By the way: 'Bürgerlich' is not right-wing. And neither is 'Mitte' or any related attribute.

that's why they sit to the right of the Union in the Bundestag.

Wow. Party politics is so much easier than I had thought. Thanks for the lesson.

The FDP is de facto the successor party to the NSDAP as measured by the number of its former NSDAP members, which is why the Allies even wanted to prohibit the FDP initially.

Okay, we're definitely in clown cuckoo land now. No. Simply no.

1) The FDP is not a 'successor party to the NSDAP'. What the hell?
2) The number of former NSDAP members in the postwar period is absolutely irrelevant for the party's ideological position in 2021. As you might know, the CDU's 'Ahlener Programm' (1947) also called for 'overcoming capitalism' - I guess that makes it the 'de facto successor party' of the USPD?

Moreover, the AfD isn't nearly as right-wing as the CDU, CSU an FDP of 2000.

You're 100% wrong on this. The AfD is far more right-wing than both CDU and FDP ever were. Neither CDU nor FDP ever referred to the Nazi era as 'a speck of bird poop' (Alexander Gauland) or engaged in völkisch lines of argument.

But getting political ideologies right is simply not your strength I guess. Wink
Logged
Pick Up the Phone
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 431


« Reply #49 on: March 13, 2021, 10:52:04 AM »

Could the free voter enter federal politics???
Not this year, but if they manage to join the state parlament of Rhineland-Palatinate, this could be the start of them entering more state parlaments; they've already got stronger in many states. Then they would not be a Bavaria-only phenomenon. If they succeed in RLP, what I doubt at the moment, this could be a signal to voters in states like Hesse, Saxony, ..., that they can make the 5% threshold.
If they manage to get into enough state parlaments in the next 5 years, I could see them entering the Bundestag in 2026, but that is a big IF.
Aren’t they in another parliament outside of Bavaria? And what are the free voter politician centre left or right?

No, they are not (at least not at the state level).* There are two Freie Wähler representatives in the European Parliament however, and several more at the local level and in various city councils.

Center to center-right I would say. Definitely more conservative than the FDP on most social matters but hardly in an ideological way. In the European Parliament, they are part of 'Renew Europe' (liberals) though. I guess 'center-right regionalism with liberal elements' is an apt description.

*There is also one single MP in Saxony-Anhalt (former independent member of the CDU parliamentary group) who switched to the Freie Wähler in 2019.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.058 seconds with 12 queries.