Super Tuesday Results Thread

[n1240]

A word of caution-We will not know the CA margins for a few days after the election. This is not the establishment rigging it, just a ton of mail in ballots.
Also, does anyone know when we get the (American) Samoa caucus results?

More like a few weeks (closer to a couple actually) in California. Harley Rouda for example, who advanced to the general election and won, was in 3rd place on June 16, 11 days after the primary.

[n1240]

Another California counting tidbit, all previous runs are accessible for Orange County dating back to 2016 - here's what the count looked like in the 2016 primary:

Initial run 7:49 pm June 7: Clinton 62.91% Sanders 35.93% (104808 votes)
Final election night run 2:11 am: Clinton 54.59% Sanders 44.49% (226639 votes)
Official results June 24 6:36 pm: Clinton 51.90% Sanders 47.26% (330595 votes)

https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2016/Run%2001/cumulative.pdf

You can change the URL to view different elections/runs (e.g. pri2016 -> gen2018 or Run%2001 -> Run%2010)

[n1240]

Another California counting tidbit, all previous runs are accessible for Orange County dating back to 2016 - here's what the count looked like in the 2016 primary:

Initial run 7:49 pm June 7: Clinton 62.91% Sanders 35.93% (104808 votes)
Final election night run 2:11 am: Clinton 54.59% Sanders 44.49% (226639 votes)
Official results June 24 6:36 pm: Clinton 51.90% Sanders 47.26% (330595 votes)

https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2016/Run%2001/cumulative.pdf

You can change the URL to view different elections/runs (e.g. pri2016 -> gen2018 or Run%2001 -> Run%2010)

While the initial results in 2016 were very unfavorable to Sanders, I'm not sure it's guaranteed to be that way this time. Sanders voters tended to be locked in from the beginning, whereas non-Sanders voters waited to see who would emerge from later primaries. This may be offset by how younger voters vote later as do many poorer voters. We'll have to see.

Yeah it's definitely a bit harder to say, and 2016 didn't really have the momentum factor that will probably cause Biden to do better in the votes that are counted later (but maybe not as good as Sanders since there are a lot of provisionals + late VBM which skew young and non-white). The early results will still skew a bit old and more white - 45% of the ballots returned are from over 65+ on the dem side and 67% white and 19% latino. I think we should expect to see a pretty mixed bag from the very first returns, with Biden cutting into the deficit as the night rolls on, then Sanders building his lead slightly from the late counted ballots

[n1240]

Do we know if the early vote in Texas and other states is counted before the day of election votes are counted?

Texas, North Carolina, Colorado, California, and Utah should. Arkansas, Alabama, and Tennessee probably report absentees but I'm not certain on this. Not much of a clue/memory on Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Maine.

[n1240]

Saw this concerning Boston turnout: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yZ6KNqOT29hyYiNIqoEcPEwhTDxGC3Z-DjiII9XTsi8/edit#gid=265520355

Turnout so far is highest relative to 2018 in Wards 2-5, 21, 22. That's the area immediately around Cambridge. Turnout is lowest in Wards 14, 15, and 18 which are in southern Boston.

ward results from 2016 primary

[n1240]

The collective Super Tuesday exit makeups don't seem very useful without any sort of solid reference point.

[n1240]

656/2581 precincts in Virginia

Biden 55.54%
Sanders 22.70%
Warren 9.71%
Bloomberg 9.37%

[n1240]

Virginia 927/2581 (35.92% reporting)

Biden 55.85%
Sanders 22.42%
Bloomberg 9.64%
Warren 9.51%

[n1240]

Bloomberg on track to win 0 delegates in Virginia

Warren likely to be viable in VA-08 and earn 1 delegate

[n1240]

What's taking the NC results too long to roll in?

There's a precinct that had issues setting up so they extended hours there, won't start reporting results until they close (media technically shouldn't have called the state?)

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1235049888867446786

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1235052762380959745

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1235055668299583488

seems like a very hasty call

[n1240]

Not sure how much people have been paying attention to the TX-28 primary but Jessica Cisneros continues to narrow the margin against Henry Cueller, down to 3.26% or 2393 votes. I believe most of the outstanding vote is in Bexar where Cisneros performs strongest. 219/280 precincts in Bexar have reported, unclear how many are in TX-28 though.

[n1240]

Anyone know what's up with Dallas? No updates in the past three hours.

[n1240]

Bloomberg dips below viability statewide in Texas

[n1240]

Bloomberg dips below viability statewide in Texas

That is probably mostly good news for Bernie.

Well Biden is winning in Texas so in terms of delegate margin it's better for him.

[n1240]

Bloomberg dips below viability statewide in Texas

That is probably mostly good news for Bernie.

Well Biden is winning in Texas so in terms of delegate margin it's better for him.

Right, but Bloomberg having less delegates that he can try to get to vote for Biden is good for Bernie.

Fair point, I'm operating under the assumption that the collective results are putting Biden in a good position to win a majority of delegates and thus thinking too much in terms of raw difference between Biden and Sanders.

[n1240]

Bloomberg dips below viability in California, can't see him recovering.

[n1240]

Texas results with Dallas, Harris, and Tarrant counties finishing (not sure if there is any notable outstanding vote left)

Biden 734045 (34.25%)
Sanders 639502 (29.84%)
Bloomberg 316464 (14.77%)
Warren 241393 (11.26%)

[n1240]

So how much longer does Bloomberg last? He's not going to be viable statewide in California or Texas (although he'll be really close in Texas so he'll get some CD delegates still) and is likely only going to be viable statewide in Colorado, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

[n1240]

It's not very scientific but from my math if current delegate ratios hold Bernie will open with around a 80 delegate lead over Biden (not counting first 4, adding 6 to sander's margin in that case)

I'm about to calculate preliminary California delegate estimates shortly but I can assure you that your estimates are way off at a glance (and borderline misinformation, honestly).

The currently allocated delegates are essentially guaranteed delegates, the rest are just uncertain - Sanders has a lot of guaranteed delegates in California since he's comfortably over 15% statewide and across most districts.

[n1240]

It's not very scientific but from my math if current delegate ratios hold Bernie will open with around a 80 delegate lead over Biden (not counting first 4, adding 6 to sander's margin in that case)

I'm about to calculate preliminary California delegate estimates shortly but I can assure you that your estimates are way off at a glance (and borderline misinformation, honestly).

The currently allocated delegates are essentially guaranteed delegates, the rest are just uncertain - Sanders has a lot of guaranteed delegates in California since he's comfortably over 15% statewide and across most districts.

As I stated all I did was assume delegate distribution at the ratios they are at now. This is not sure fire and yes it will be inaccurate. That being said the possibility of a Bernie lead in pledged delegates is a pretty fair one. Given I personally expected it to be about double the lead it's not a bad sign for Biden nor misinformation.

But it's an odd assumption to make since it isn't how delegates are distributed, it's pretty evident that Sanders won't be ahead in pledged delegates unless he ends up winning California by around 20 or so which I think is very unlikely so I don't think there is any scenario where Sanders ends up ahead on pledged delegates.

These are the delegate counts I have in California currently, although I expect the delegate margin Sanders has here to grow as the late results come in.

Sanders 223
Biden 161
Bloomberg 23
Warren 8

[n1240]

How often is CA going to update? They haven't pushed an update since this morning

Varies by county, some like to do daily updates in the afternoon/evening (usually the bigger counties), some will only update all their outstanding in one large batch. Usually county websites (again particularly larger counties) will announce reporting schedules. Orange County will post new results at 5 pm PST for example.

[n1240]

How often is CA going to update? They haven't pushed an update since this morning

Varies by county, some like to do daily updates in the afternoon/evening (usually the bigger counties), some will only update all their outstanding in one large batch. Usually county websites (again particularly larger counties) will announce reporting schedules. Orange County will post new results at 5 pm PST for example.

By the end of the week we should have a statewide report of the number of ballots in each county left to county.

In the past they've posted the following day, idk where it is though. Orange county has some 150k VBM to count and an unknown amount of provisionals.