Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[n1240]

JBE's performance in the largest parishes compared to DK's benchmarks (the one in the comments that corrects for the obvious ceiling in NOLA):

EBR: EVEN
Jefferson: EVEN
Orleans: -2
St. Tammany: -1
Caddo: +1
Lafayette: EVEN
Calcasieu: +1
Ouachita: +5
Livingston: -2
Rapides: +2
Ascension: EVEN
Tangipahoa: +1
Bossier: +1
Terrebonne: -2
Lafourche: -3

Overall was +1, of course, since it was calibrated for a 50/50 outcome.

Not sure if this was mentioned yet, but increased turnout in Orleans seemed to be pretty big for JBE, turnout was up about 12% statewide, but 29% in Orleans, relative to the first round. On the other hand, some parishes with lower turnout than the first round tended to be solid Republican parishes (Vernon, Vermillion, Beauregard, etc.)

[n1240]

There's been emphasis on Edwards getting his vote out, but the highest turnout I found for any parish was mega racist hick LaSalle at a whopping 66.4%.  The only parish above 60% that I've seen so far.

Turnout in the first round in LaSalle has 65.0%, only a slight increase. Orleans however, went from 38.7% to 49.2%, quite a notable difference, considering statewide turnout went from 45.9% to 50.7%. Parishes like East Baton Rogue, Jefferson, and Caddo also had considerable turnout increases, while increases in turnout in the parishes that Rispone won handedly tended to be smaller, with a few exceptions

I decided to run the numbers since I was interested in observing how the margin would've changed if the turnout remained constant with the first round, and found that the margin of victory would've decreased from 2.67% to 1.33%, a fairly small decrease, but still large enough that it could've been a decisive factor in a closer election.

[n1240]

There's been emphasis on Edwards getting his vote out, but the highest turnout I found for any parish was mega racist hick LaSalle at a whopping 66.4%.  The only parish above 60% that I've seen so far.

Turnout in the first round in LaSalle has 65.0%, only a slight increase. Orleans however, went from 38.7% to 49.2%, quite a notable difference, considering statewide turnout went from 45.9% to 50.7%. Parishes like East Baton Rogue, Jefferson, and Caddo also had considerable turnout increases, while increases in turnout in the parishes that Rispone won handedly tended to be smaller, with a few exceptions

I decided to run the numbers since I was interested in observing how the margin would've changed if the turnout remained constant with the first round, and found that the margin of victory would've decreased from 2.67% to 1.33%, a fairly small decrease, but still large enough that it could've been a decisive factor in a closer election.

Good work, now pick a better display name.

Thanks, I'll try and think of one haha