Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[n1240]

Adam Griffin I raised concern in a different thread about GA-07 being called a runoff prematurely by AP, would you agree with my assessment? It seems like there may be around 23k outstanding uncounted mail-in votes in just the Gwinnett portion of the district (Forsyth has not counted their mail-in votes as well). Considering Bourdeaux's strength in the counted mail-in votes in Gwinnett and relatively strong numbers among early in-person voters as well, I imagine she should be able to exceed 50% and avoid the runoff?

[n1240]

So just glancing around - for the Democratic primary alone - it appears there are at least 75,000 votes outstanding in Fulton/Dekalb combined, and potentially 50,000 or more in Gwinnett/Cobb.

On top of that, there are still plenty of counties where mail ballots are obviously not (fully) counted. Forsyth is one example: there should be no fewer than 10,000 D ballots there (maybe closer to 15-20k), yet there are only around 6,000 D presently.

Floyd is another example: only around 1,500 D presently, when it will likely end up in the 4k range.

Several thousand D ballots at minimum haven't been counted in Bibb based on its turnout relative to Muscogee and Richmond.

My estimates based on comparing votes counted by vote type and number of absentees reported as returned:

Fulton has around 20k left, DeKalb maybe around 75k.

Gwinnett around 50k, Cobb 35k.

Forsyth has yet to report any mail-in absentees, around 9k or to there.

Bibb hasn't even included any absentees (mail-in or early in person) in their totals, should be around 17k votes there.

[n1240]

Democrats ahead by just over 15% in GA-06 now. GA-07 has fallen to 58-42 D

Assuming I haven't made any mistakes...

Comparing last night's absentee spreadsheet to current SoS votes in Gwinnett, there are still another 60k ballots outstanding in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett Early Vote/Mail Ballots Accepted (via SoS Results):
DEM: 23558 (59.30%)
GOP: 16165 (40.70%)

Gwinnett Early Vote/Mail Ballots Accepted (via SoS Absentee Spreadsheet):
DEM: 61364 (60.41%)
GOP: 40209 (39.59%)

Which means, outstanding...

DEM: 37806 (61.12%)
GOP: 24044 (38.88%)

Bourdeaux is still running pretty strong, holding steady at winning 67% of the mail-in absentees. She's gone from 46.0% -> 47.0% in overall margin from the last 3000 votes added.

[n1240]

Bourdeaux is still running pretty strong, holding steady at winning 67% of the mail-in absentees. She's gone from 46.0% -> 47.0% in overall margin from the last 3000 votes added.

Up to 48.7% after Forsyth absentees, seems like I was correct to say the AP called this race prematurely.

[n1240]

Bourdeaux is still running pretty strong, holding steady at winning 67% of the mail-in absentees. She's gone from 46.0% -> 47.0% in overall margin from the last 3000 votes added.

Up to 48.7% after Forsyth absentees, seems like I was correct to say the AP called this race prematurely.

Oh wow. If the AP called this many races prematurely here in Georgia primaries alone...

This is going to be a nightmare in November. A lot of premature calls are going to go for Republicans before Dem-heavy Counties finish

I'd imagine the AP might take more precaution in November to not prematurely call races. I don't have too sharp a memory of prematurely called races but I know the AP was forced to retract their call in CA-21, which should've been some sort of a warning that there is a fairly large margin of uncertainty for contests with considerable amount of absentee vote.

Of course it's necessary to address the larger scale issue of establishing infrastructure to ensure that a large number of absentee ballots can actually be counted before election day, hopefully states like Georgia and Pennsylvania use this as some sort of a lesson for November, and other states which have not held primaries under similar conditions to take notice as well. The AP might be better at not calling races prematurely, but it won't stop the VBM truthers from expressing doubt over leads potentially changing days or weeks after election day.