GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[n1240]

Considering there is possibly hundreds of thousands of votes still out, it will also look embarrassing for Tomlinson if Ossoff ends up at 50% when all is said & done

There are some 40 Precincts left in the DeKalb and 20 in Fulton and Ossoff needs a Net Gain of 30K to 50K to avoid a Runoff.

DeKalb has counted 0 absentee votes (out of a bit over 100k) and Fulton is missing a large amount of their mail-in absentee votes.

I'd expect Ossoff to avoid a runoff pretty easily at this rate, unless some counties are lumping in absentee mail-in vote with election day vote for whatever reason.

[n1240]

Considering there is possibly hundreds of thousands of votes still out, it will also look embarrassing for Tomlinson if Ossoff ends up at 50% when all is said & done

There are some 40 Precincts left in the DeKalb and 20 in Fulton and Ossoff needs a Net Gain of 30K to 50K to avoid a Runoff.

DeKalb has counted 0 absentee votes (out of a bit over 100k) and Fulton is missing a large amount of their mail-in absentee votes.

I'd expect Ossoff to avoid a runoff pretty easily at this rate, unless some counties are lumping in absentee mail-in vote with election day vote for whatever reason.

Yes, this is election week. The increase in absentee voting means that most counties have not had the time to process these ballots yet - reminder they took a long time with 10x fewer ballots in 2018 which dragged out the count. The question if if the absentee ballots put Ossoff over. These absentee ballots could be more white than the day vote, since educated liberals are more likely to use the system. This scenario probably puts Ossoff over. If the absentees match the e-day demos, then Ossoff probably doesn't gain enough, but still goes up since urban areas have more people visibly concerned about corona.

Just sampling from counties that seem to have reasonable amount of absentee vote in:

Cherokee:
Eday: Ossoff 52.8%
Early In-person: Ossoff 59.4%
Absentee by mail: Ossoff 63.8%

Clayton:

Eday: Ossoff 46.5%
Early In-person: Ossoff 60.1%
Absentee by mail: 66.2%

Fulton:

Eday: 53.3%
Early In-person: Ossoff 60.2%
not enough absentee by mail

Richmond

Eday: 38.1%
Early In-person: 47.4%
Absentee by mail: 46.4%

Cobb

Eday: 52.7%
Early In-person: 59.0%
Absentee by mail: 67.1%

Fairly arbitrary selection of large counties but the trend is pretty clear, Ossoff does much better among absentee votes. Considering the bulk of the outstanding absentee vote is centered in the Atlanta metro area, I'd be pretty shocked if he misses 50%.

[n1240]

This is JUST Dekalb-

https://twitter.com/ByTylerEstep/status/1270758645534527488

These are not all dems btw. If you go back a bit in the statewide GA thread you will find large county breakdowns of the mail ballots by partisanship. In general it's what you expect with big dem leads in the blue metro counties, but there is some signs of educated liberals using the system, since the dem numbers were good in the red counties and not just the blue ones.

I suspect 85-90 percent of DeKalb mail ins are Dems though. So lots of potential votes for Ossoff.

105k Dem votes as of about 12 hours ago in the absentee vote file, but there are 122k total returns in the file, meaning some absentee returns weren't reported to the state at the time the voter file was published, so might be able to expect 115k absentee votes in DeKalb assuming the elections board estimate of remaining ballots is accurate

[n1240]

Ossoff up to 49.1% after some more election day precincts and about 20% of the absentee vote in DeKalb (all of the early in-person absentee, it appears). Ossoff received 60.4% of the early in-person vote in DeKalb.

[n1240]

Ossoff up to 49.996% statewide with new Fulton County results, they don't seem to be done with absentee votes yet, he's definitely advancing without a runoff.

[n1240]

We still have more votes to go, but this is highly interesting - Dems outvoting Reps in both GA-06 and GA-07 (especially 7th)

GA-06
Dems 42,428
Reps 36,118

GA-07
Dems 50,342
Reps 34,812

Gap has grown in GA-06

Dems 58721
GOP 48063

[n1240]

Ossoff up to 49.996% statewide with new Fulton County results, they don't seem to be done with absentee votes yet, he's definitely advancing without a runoff.

Where's the best place to look for results?

I received updated Fulton results from here (some county pages on the GA clarity site update before they do on the cumulative statewide page): https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/Fulton/103674/web.247524/#/summary?v=252536%2F

Updated DeKalb results from here: https://www.dekalbcountyga.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/ElectionSummaryReportRPT%20-%206.10.20%20139p.pdf

[n1240]

NYTimes has Ossoff at 50.01% now.