IA-CNN/DMR: Sanders 20%, Warren 17%, Buttigieg 16%, Biden 15% (user search)
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  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  IA-CNN/DMR: Sanders 20%, Warren 17%, Buttigieg 16%, Biden 15% (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-CNN/DMR: Sanders 20%, Warren 17%, Buttigieg 16%, Biden 15%  (Read 7275 times)
Cinemark
Jr. Member
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Posts: 870


« on: January 10, 2020, 06:04:42 PM »

*sigh*

Lets go Warren then.
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Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2020, 06:11:21 PM »

First choice + second choice combined:
Warren 33 (17+16)
Sanders 32 (20+12)
Buttigieg 31 (16+15)
Biden 27 (15+12)
Klobuchar 14 (6+8)
Yang 11 (5+6)
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Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2020, 06:17:35 PM »

Do remember the 15% threshold. Klobuchar might be damaged disproportionately.

Just off the top of my head, both Biden and Richardson got screwed in 2008 because of that.
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Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2020, 06:28:22 PM »


They always release one right before the caucus so I dont think so.
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Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2020, 07:06:04 PM »


Are you really quoting Charlie Kirk?
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Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2020, 07:39:53 PM »

Biden could easily "win" on these numbers if you assume that the lion's share of Klobuchar supporters redistribute to him. Klobuchar is not going to be hitting viability at most caucus sites.

If so, that ought to show up in the 2nd choice numbers, which it doesn't really. One could also say that Sanders would be likely to gain supporters from when i.e. Yang and Gabbard don't hit viability.

No evidence at all that Yang and Gabbard supporters support Bernie.

No evidence at all that Klobuchar supporters support Biden.

Personally, Klobuchar is my first choice, and Biden is like my forth or fifth choice.
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Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2020, 07:48:26 PM »

Personally, Klobuchar is my first choice, and Biden is like my forth or fifth choice.

Well, that's nice. However, there is a reason why the phrase "anecdotal evidence" includes an adjective, namely "anecdotal."

I was just trying to back up your point :/
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Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2020, 09:20:45 AM »


Polling definitely indicates Biden is the stronger general election candidate. Whether that holds up remains to be seen.
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