KY, MS etc. Results Thread

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Rating Change: Lean Bevin -> Tilt Bevin

Umm sorry ratings are CLOSED once results start coming in.

Yeah, thats cheating.

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New York Times is really far behind in some places.

https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1191862739830034432?s=20

Politico too.

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Bevin at 5.1% ahead with 69 precincts in.

DDHQ has it at 114 precints and Beshear +4 51-47?

They're using Politico/NYTs.

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In Taylor county Bevin leads with half vote in with 63%, in 2015 he got 61%. Doesn't look god for Democrats, they would need huuuuuge numbers from Lexington

Democrats are currently getting huge numbers from Lexington.

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Not a clue whats going on but its certainly exciting to watch.

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I've seen like 4 different sets of benchmarks tonight. Its honestly unhelpful lol.

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Franklin County's all in. Bevin's getting 36.1, he got 35.2 in 2015.

Apparently Beshear netted more votes than Conway from it though.

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Honestly, these bencharmarks seem useless.

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Even if Bevin still wins, those swings in Kenton, Campbell and Boone should be setting off alarm bells for the GOP.

Ehh, i'm not sure. Bevin is super super unpopular.

[Cinemark]

Beshear takes lead 50-48 on CNN 74% reporting

It was another 33% from Louisville.

Which means theres still a large chunk left too.

[Cinemark]

And still a chunk of Louisville left too.

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Wow, I am very very wrong and I thank the people of Kentucky for proving me so.

Dude, take a chill pill.

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I'm terrible at math, but both Grayson and Ballard counties are small in terms of population. I dont think either have enough votes to get Bevin back on top.

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Yeah, thems the brakes. Not sure theres anything really left out.

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NBC calls it for Beshear.

Talk about skin of your teeth.

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So which counties arent a 100% in , I hate how the CNN website hasnt separated the counties which are fully in compared to the ones that arent 

There's a precinct left in Henderson according to CNN. Beshear is winning Henderson narrowly overall, and NYT says Henderson is 100% in with the same number of votes. I think that's the only precinct reported out on CNN's map. NYT is missing results for Russell County, which accounts for the differences between the two outlets.

Green county also has some out, but it cant be more than a few hundred or so.

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The only bad thing about this win in KY is now a lot liberal are going to waste money against McConnell.

To quote Klobuchar:

"Every Race, Every Place"

Not a bad thing to contest races everywhere.

[Cinemark]

The only bad thing about this win in KY is now a lot liberal are going to waste money against McConnell.

To quote Klobuchar:

"Every Race, Every Place"

Not a bad thing to contest races everywhere.

Gubernatorial races are very different than Senate races, as it will be much more dominated by national issues and also unlike this election will be held during a Presidential year

I get that, but i think its better to contest elections instead of surrendering to huge blowouts.

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Theres a few counties still not at 100% that are heavily Bevin, but i cant imagine it netting him more than a few hundred votes. I think Beshear's lead is safe.

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Even with Hood losing, he's not doing all that badly. I think fears of impeachment backlash might have been put to rest tonight, atleast for the moment.

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Also, Beshear went from 5,500 to 5,900 with Henderson County finished. So.....

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Maybe its early, but Mississippi is closer than i thought it'd be.

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Maybe its early, but Mississippi is closer than i thought it'd be.

MS does seem close all of a sudden, but the state is so racially polarised, that it may just be a case of waiting for a vote dump from some white, conservative precincts that return it to the 10 point Reeves lead.

Lol, you were saying.

Still, not a bad performance from Hood all things considered.

[Cinemark]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

I certainly can and I will.

[Cinemark]

Then you have to extrapolate the downballot races too

Trump nationalized the governor race. He went and held a huge rally with McConnell and Rand Paul for Bevin. Trump said it would look bad for him if Bevin lost. Its not hard to connect the dots.