Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[Cinemark]

I know posters on here arent happy with how many candidates have qualified, but its not really that unprecedented. The 2007 November dem debate had 7 candidates. The 2015 November republican debate had 8 candidates and a lower threshold(that's not even counting the "secondary" debate for candidates who didn't qualify). The two republican debates in November of 2011 also each had 8 candidates. If this upcomming debate holds at 9 candidates(which i think it might), it'd be a tad more crowded than previous years.

I think what i'm getting at is that the bar the DNC has set to qualify for these debates hasnt been unusually low compared to other open primaries in the past. Also, Since this is basicly the first open democratic primary in over a decade, there was bound to be alot of interest.

[Cinemark]

I think Klobuchar can make it in December if she has a good debate. While not a qualifying poll(?), she did just get 4% in the most recent Iowa poll.

Everybody else not in the top 6 is probably out.

[Cinemark]

Klobuchar has cleared the December 200k donor threshold according to her campaign's communications director.

https://mobile.twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1187802762924482562

[Cinemark]

Pretty obvious Tulsi owes Hillary a debt a gratitude for extending the life of her campaign. That being said, if the UNH poll is right, almost all of Tulsi's support is coming from republicans or right leaning independents/democrats who voted for Trump. I dont suspect this bump will be long lived unless Tulsi has a few great moments in the next debate.

[Cinemark]

For November:
Gabbard: 2/4 total polls, or 1/2 state polls
O'Rourke: 2/4 total polls
Castro: 0/4 total polls

Gabbard now 3/4 for November, with the new USA Today / Suffolk poll.

For December, of those who haven’t qualified yet here are the number of polls at 4% (4 needed to qualify):

3/4 polls: Harris
2/4 polls: Gabbard
1/4 polls: Klobuchar, Steyer, Yang

How long does she have?  Any chance she doesn’t get the last poll?

In theory, I think candidates have until the day of the debate.  In practice, the candidates are at the mercy of the approved pollster's release schedules.

Edit: Yeah, i keep giving wrong information (T___T).
See below...
V

[Cinemark]

Klobuchar definitely has some type of momentum. If that translates into something more tangible is up for debate, but it seems like she has an actual shot of making the December debate. That didn't seem all that plausible a few weeks ago

[Cinemark]

With the new NBC/WSJ poll, Klobuchar gets her third December qualifying poll. Harris finally gets her forth.

[Cinemark]

I want to know who these Klobuchar and Steyer people are.

Klobuchar got around 400 people tonight at a campaign event in Philadelphia. There is definitely alot of democrats looking for a competent moderate, something Biden cant deliver on half the time.

[Cinemark]

Gabbard's got one week left to qualify for the November debate.  She hasn't done very well in the latest round of polls, but she only needs one more qualifying poll to make it for November, so it could happen at any time.

And looks like Quinnipiac will have an Iowa poll coming out today:

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll/status/1192110643110768640

Which I think is their first Iowa poll of the cycle, so it should count for everyone.  Since Iowa's a good state for Klobuchar, maybe Klobuchar will qualify for December today?  She's certainly got a chance.

Gabbard probably needs a New Hampshire poll. Seems like her best state.

[Cinemark]

Lectern order for next week's debate:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/line-announced-msnbc-washington-post-democratic-debate-n1082421

The lectern order was announced by MSNBC, and will feature Booker and Steyer on the outskirts of the stage. From left to right, the order is Booker, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Sanders, Harris, Yang and Steyer.

The order is quite strange, since Yang had more qualifying polls than Klobuchar (15 vs 11), and he's also currently ahead of her in RCP's national polling average (2.8% vs 2.3%). MSNBC should clarify this ASAP.

On the surface, it definitely seems like more MSM suppression and preference bias in action, especially since MSNBC has been by far the least fair and most biased broadcaster towards Yang all year long. Yang also has more Twitter followers than her - despite Amy being a public figure for so many years now - and many, many times more YouTube activity than her, and outraised her by a lot in the third quarter. By no objective measure should she be ranked ahead of him at this stage in the race.

I think your making a mistake looking at the RCP average. If you average just the debate qualifying national polls, I believe Klobuchar is ahead of Yang.

[Cinemark]

The new Quinnipiac poll doesn't change anything for December, since every candidate who got 4% or more has already qualified for December.

And the Emerson NH poll later today is non-qualifying.

It’s getting hard for both Gabbard and Yang, because I don’t see that many additional polls coming that would qualify them ...

Maybe FOX or Monmouth in NH, but that’s about it and Gabbard has been polling low in their previous polls.

CNN might have a national poll coming out tomorrow. Probably wont help Gabbard but could get Yang across the line.

[Cinemark]

Not sure how many more qualifying polls are still left to come out between now and the 12th. Especially since pollsters wont be out in the field the rest of the week due to Thanksgiving.

[Cinemark]

Both Gabbard & Yang received 4%+ in two NH polls recently, both (Suffolk, Emerson) do not count for the December debate ...

Emerson has never been considered a qualifying poll. Suffolk never got counted as a qualifying poll either. It was USA Today that counted towards the debate, they just always used Suffolk. For the November and December debates however, the DNC made it so that USA Today has to use Suffolk(and vice versa) if they want to have a poll that counts towards qualification.

https://democrats.org/news/dnc-announces-details-for-sixth-democratic-presidential-primary-debate/

For individual entities that are included only in Qualifying Poll Sponsor pairs but are not listed individually, independent polling by such individual entities or polling conducted in new partnerships with such individual entities shall not meet the Qualifying Poll Criteria.  The DNC reserves the right to add a Nevada-specific poll sponsor to this list in the near future.

That said, there are quite a few pollsters who haven't released data in a while that will probably put something out before the 12th. I have a hard time imagining Yang, Gabbard and Steyer not making the next debate.

[Cinemark]

But the DNC isnt being "arbitrary and inconsistent". The rules including USA Today and Suffolk have been in place since September. And the Boston Globe has never been a debate qualifying sponsor.

[Cinemark]

The DNC isn't being inconsistent, but the rule that an otherwise-accepted pollster needs a particular press sponsor for the results to be considered "real" is totally arbitrary.

Except Suffolk was never considered a qualifying pollster until this September with the new sponsorship rules.

[Cinemark]

I think the RNC and Fox had a good solution for their January debate in 2016. Candidates qualified if they were polling in the top 6 nationally, top 5 in Iowa or top 5 in New Hampshire. This would eliminate Steyer and Yang but probably save Harris and possibly Klobuchar and Gabbard. It could also get Bloomberg on the debate stage like Tom Perez seems to want.

Edit: Although, now looking at it. Yang could very well pass Harris for sixth nationally if his current trajectory holds. So Harris could get eliminated under these conditions if the stars align for Yang.

[Cinemark]

Now that Harris is out, it looks like we'll have a five person debate.

Nope. Currently, we're at six candidates with Harris gone. Yang and Gabbard have 9 days to get another qualifying poll.  I think its more likely than not we will have an 8 candidate debate.

[Cinemark]

You know, as much as I want a six person debate, I'd hate for Yang and Gabbard to miss qualifying because of lack of polling. I'm still confident we'll get something soon, but I'd be nervous if I were in either camp right now.

[Cinemark]

There are some rumors on Twitter about Quinnipiac releasing a new national poll soon. That probably wont help Gabbard or Yang.

[Cinemark]

We are back up to 7. Still better than 10.

[Cinemark]

Has Biden even 225k donors? Would be hilarous if he at one point hasn't enough donors despite leading national and some state polls.

Biden has passed 200k donors already in July ...

The most at risk are Steyer, Gabbard and even Klobuchar. They only reached 200k donors on Dec. 3, Nov. 28 and Oct. 26 - while Yang is safe with the donors, just like Biden, Sanders, Warren and Pete.

Klobuchar reached 250,000 donors early this month I think.

[Cinemark]

Wait...

I think Klobuchar has already qualified for the debate.

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1208047014694543360

[Cinemark]

Yang has the donors, but only 1/4 polls so far (Marist, national).

Its going to be very tricky for  him. We are entering another polling slowdown because of Christmas and New Years and the poll cut off is on January 10th.

[Cinemark]

Where's the donor info for Bloomberg? Is he just running on name recognition?

Bloomberg is not accepting donations.

Therefore he won't be at any debate, unless the DNC drops the donor requirement.

Technically, selling merch = donations. So Bloomberg could conceivably hit the donor requirement by selling 225,000 bumper stickers.

[Cinemark]

Where's the donor info for Bloomberg? Is he just running on name recognition?

Bloomberg is not accepting donations.

Therefore he won't be at any debate, unless the DNC drops the donor requirement.

Technically, selling merch = donations. So Bloomberg could conceivably hit the donor requirement by selling 225,000 bumper stickers.

Are bumper stickers not given out for free by the campaigns ?

At least in Austria, you will get pencils etc. for free from the parties (but our parties are publicly financed, so ...)

I'd wager you could probably still get a free one at a campaign event.

But most campaigns now sell them separately or will include them with a donation.
Bloomberg for example:
https://shop.mikebloomberg.com/mike-bloomberg-2020-11-5-x-3-vinyl-sticker/