Colombian congressional and presidential elections - March 13/May 29/June 19, 2022

[Associate Justice PiT]

This has been a very different election from any past ones, and a massive break from the past 20 years of politics.

     Without a doubt, because this is the first time in many years there wasn't an Uribista candidate in the second round. Hernandez came out of nowhere and took second place in large part because Colombians are tired of the corruption and violence of Uribismo. I think it was just last week I first heard Hernandez's name, when my wife told me that she was planning to vote for him (previously she had backed Fajardo). Had Gutierrez advanced, I would have considered Petro the favorite to win. As is, I agree that Hernandez has a small but real edge.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I don't see how Petro can break 50%, I think he already lost. I'll probably still vote for him with much skepticism (not particularly a fan of the guy). The problem with Petro is that he carries too much baggage for the majority of people from medium to small cities, and rural areas in the Colombian hinterland.

     Baggage is a good way of putting it. It's not an accident that Petro's worst departments were near the Venezuelan border; Hernandez's native son status in Santander aside, the fear of Colombia turning into another Venezuela weighs heavily on the minds of a lot of people.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Interesting to see that Petro seems to have peeled off a lot of the support Fajardo lost from 2018. It doesn't surprise me in Manizales since they both have a lot of appeal with college-educated voters, but the same trend appears in other cities that are not as known for being home to universities.