ESPN March Madness Bracket Challenge - Atlas Group

[Associate Justice PiT]

Zags all the way

     I like your style.

[Associate Justice PiT]

heatcharger is now the only one left with a perfect bracket so far (thanks to a dumb foul from Vanderbilt).

     Bucknell also screwed me over. I had pegged West Virginia to choke again this year.

[Associate Justice PiT]

My bracket has been busted

     If everyone's bracket is busted, then it's really alright.

[Associate Justice PiT]

JGibson has the unique position of being both tied for first and in the worst setup for future points.

     In fact, three of the top four brackets have their national champion pick eliminated. My bracket is pretty thoroughly busted, but I could still finish well if Gonzaga wins. Admittedly this looks unlikely given their lackluster wins in the first two rounds, but I still have pretty decent potential.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Going into the final four there have been 14 upset seed wins out of 60 games or 23.3%. That's very close to my expectation of 22% and within the normal range of 19-25%. If you picked the higher seed to win every game so far you would have 820 points and be sitting in third place in Atlas pool.

Picking by seeds would leave 4 number 1 seeds in the Final Four. If you picked the last three games based on the postseason rank in the AP poll (1-Villanova, 2-Gonzaga, 3-Kansas, 6-North Carolina) then you'd have Villanova over Kansas in the final and finish with those same 820 points.

You would have probably used the committee's ordering of the 1's- Villanova, Kansas, UNC, Gonzaga.

     That order produces the same result, as Villanova beats Gonzaga and Kansas beats UNC to reach the final. To achieve deviation you would have to allow that Gonzaga beats Villanova, in which case your prediction for the final will change depending on which ranking system you use.