FDU Says Christie Up By 9

[Rowan]

FDU NJ

Christie 42%
Corzine 33%

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/cvsc/tab.html

A 16 point swing from their January poll.

[Rowan]

Starting to look like the same old New Jersey, eh, guys?

Yeah because an incumbent at 33% is perfectly normal...

[Rowan]

Starting to look like the same old New Jersey, eh, guys?

Yeah because an incumbent at 33% is perfectly normal...

Uh, yeah, in NJ it is pretty normal.

Really? Show me a poll.

[Rowan]

Starting to look like the same old New Jersey, eh, guys?

Yeah because an incumbent at 33% is perfectly normal...

Uh, yeah, in NJ it is pretty normal.

Really? Show me a poll.

Go look up the countless ratings for NJ's statewide elected officials! You really mean to tell me that Menendez and Corzine (even Lautenberg) haven't had approval ratings this low before? Now I know this isn't a rating poll but the same thing applies - the GOP candidate is polling in the low 40s and while most can't stand the Dem incumbent, they think they're better off disliking the Dem in power than hating the Republican in power.

At the end of the day, the undecided voters break the other way, pal. I wish it wasn't so. It's sad but true. Work your ass off and fight for your candidate but don't be shocked when it ends the same way it always ends.

They were NEVER at 33% in a poll, and no they have never had approval ratings this low. And Christie is only in the low 40's because people don't know who he is yet. Also, show me the last time 4(REPEAT 4) polls in a row showed the Democrat AT LEAST 9 POINTS DOWN. What about Quinnipiac having Christie at 46% or Rasmussen having him at 49%? The more people know about this guy, the more his support will grow. It is hard to get out of the 40%'s if only 60% of the electorate(most likely less) have any idea who you even are.

[Rowan]

They were NEVER at 33% in a poll, and no they have never had approval ratings this low.

Blatantly false.

From Corzine's own Wiki page:

An April 26, 2006, polls from Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed Corzine at a 35% approval with a 42% disapproval

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Corzine#Governor

 

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It's April, dude. Get real. Once they know he was a Bush appointee and an evil Republican, things will change. Your state falls for the most ridiculous rhetoric.

All that shows is Corzine has never really been that popular in NJ. I don't get what your point is there.

[Rowan]

All that shows is Corzine has never really been that popular in NJ. I don't get what your point is there.

Uh...you said his approval was never this low (33%). It clearly was that low before.

No, I said other NJ politicians. It's not a NJ thing, Lautenberg and Menedez have pretty good favorables right now. People just don't like Corzine.

[Rowan]

NRO:

Chris Christie: How Can We Have a Governor Forbidding Local Tax Cuts?

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine has handed his Republican challengers a golden issue. He appointed Burlington County Superintendent of Schools Lester Richens, who recently decided to forbid the Borough of Pemberton from cutting school taxes.

    The proposed school district budget would have sliced almost $300 from the tax bill of the owner of an average home in the Borough. But Richens, appointed to his job by Governor Corzine, stepped in and enforced a “minimum tax levy” that effectively erased almost 60 percent of that savings.

GOP challenger Chris Christie has already issued a statement:

    "It's not enough for Governor Corzine that New Jersey tax rates are among the highest in the country, he's also hard at work making sure that local governments who want to lower taxes in their community are penalized.  The Pemberton Borough School Board has done what Governor Corzine has failed to do - they used fiscal responsibility and careful budgeting to lower taxes this year.  Instead of rewarding Pemberton for their efforts, Governor Corzine would rather punish them. This is emblematic of the backwards fiscal policies of the seven years of the Corzine/McGreevey Administration, and one I will permanently end as Governor."

[Rowan]

Starting to look like the same old New Jersey, eh, guys?

Yeah because an incumbent at 33% is perfectly normal...

Menendez was as low as 36% as late as September '06 in a uni poll.  not sure if he was technically an 'incumbent' but the point remains.

Not an incumbent.

[Rowan]

Starting to look like the same old New Jersey, eh, guys?

Yeah because an incumbent at 33% is perfectly normal...

Menendez was as low as 36% as late as September '06 in a uni poll.  not sure if he was technically an 'incumbent' but the point remains.

Not an incumbent.

Technically, yes, he was.

Well he was appointed, so he didn't have a history of being elected by the people.

[Rowan]

The poll has him at 40/49 in approval, and it keeps getting lower.

[Rowan]

The poll has him at 40/49 in approval, and it keeps getting lower.

My friend, you don't even have a majority of those polled disapproving.

Listen, if you want to argue that Christie can win and he's slightly favored, fine. I disagree but whatever. However, if you argue that Christie is a lock...well...your head is in your ass.

Did I say lock? No, I said a incumbent Democrat in New Jersey has never been in this bad of shape, so to compare it to previous elections is just ridiculous.

[Rowan]

Did I say lock? No, I said a incumbent Democrat in New Jersey has never been in this bad of shape, so to compare it to previous elections is just ridiculous.

Lautenberg's ratings were in the low 40s/high 30s last year.

I just looked at Pollster. He was never under 45% and never trailed in a poll.

[Rowan]

Did I say lock? No, I said a incumbent Democrat in New Jersey has never been in this bad of shape, so to compare it to previous elections is just ridiculous.

Lautenberg's ratings were in the low 40s/high 30s last year.

I just looked at Pollster. He was never under 45% and never trailed in a poll.

Lautenberg at 43% approval rating - http://www.surveyusa.com/100USSenators0805SortedbyState.htm

By the way, I'm sure Corzine trailed at some point in 2005 and his approval rating wasn't hot then either.

I was talking about his percentage in a poll, not an approval rating(also, that is 2005, irrelevant to what I am talking about).

No Corzine did not trail. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/NJ_Gov_05.html

[Rowan]

I was talking about his percentage in a poll, not an approval rating

...

What?

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How? He was an incumbent in a statewide office with mediocre ratings (as I recall) who beat his opponent by nine points.

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Fair enough though I thought Forrester lead in a few polls early on.

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Lautenberg didn't have an election in 2005 so his approval ratings for that year don't really mean much. His approval ratings for 2008 would be a better barometer.

[Rowan]

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Ok but you also mentioned approval ratings for Democratic incumbents. Lautenberg's ratings were low.

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Yeah, thanks. I was talking about Corzine in 2005.

In an election year.....

2005 wasn't an election year for Lautenberg, so his approval ratings don't matter.

[Rowan]

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Ok but you also mentioned approval ratings for Democratic incumbents. Lautenberg's ratings were low.

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Yeah, thanks. I was talking about Corzine in 2005.

In an election year.....

2005 wasn't an election year for Lautenberg, so his approval ratings don't matter.

44% rating in 2008 - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1214

It's 44-38, +6, which isn't a bad approval. Corzine's is -10 or worse depending on which poll you look at.

[Rowan]

New Radio Ad for Christie. "Overtaxed"

http://christiefornj.com/blog/2009/04/08/new-radio-ad-overtaxed/

[Rowan]

did you create your own tinyurl for that?

Oops, copied it off Christie's Twitter. Didn't realize it was a tinyurl.

[Rowan]

The woman's voice is awful too. I think the point of the ad is to show that the Corzine administration doesn't think New Jerseyans are overtaxed but Christie does.

[Rowan]

it's also the type of ad you run in the last week before the election, not your first ad overall.  It's vague and confusing dialogue between someone  in Corzine's administration instead of Corzine himself, giving Corzine ample time to adjust his own position on the issue.  Christie's own comments on the issue are moderately clear, if it were an interview, but it's not concise and impactive enough for a radio ad.  I have no idea what's going on here in the Christie camp but I'm unimpressed.



I don't know who the hell is managing Christie's campaign, but after observing this opening salvo, I'm upping Corzine's chances at reelection

It was his second ad, but still point taken. His campaign manager is Bill Stepien, his Wiki entry:

Bill Stepien (born 1977) is currently working for Chris Christie's New Jersey gubernatorial campaign. Previous to that, he was a Regional Campaign Manager for Senator John S. McCain's presidential campaign before serving as National Field Director.

Stepien began his political career working on Anthony Bucco's 1997 State Senate campaign, and on Bob Franks' 2000 U.S. Senate race. He worked for Public Opinion Strategies and DuHaime Communications before managing Bill Baroni's 2003 bid for New Jersey State Assembly -- the only Republican to oust a Democratic incumbent that year, and one of PoliticsNJ.com's Best Campaigns of the Year.

Stepien served as Political Director of the 2004 Bush/Cheney campaign in New Hampshire, and as Director of the Republican National Committee's 72-Hour Campaign in 2005 and 2006. He is a Rutgers University graduate. He played on the Rutgers Hockey team with Giuliani campaign manager Michael DuHaime.