I'm changing my prediction, Tedisco will win:
Tedisco 53%
Murphy 47%
why?
I was looking over the internals of the Siena poll again. The Siena poll breaks down by counties/area. They have Tedisco winning 49-43 in Saratoga/Rensselaer which are two out of the three highest population counties in the district. Also, they have Murphy winning 58-29 in Essex/Warren/Washington, which is hard to believe considering Obama only won Essex by 13, and Warren and Washington were 50/50 races. Also, I believe Tedisco will get more than the 64% of Republicans as shown. Furthermore, there are 9% of Republicans undecided compared to only 5% of Democrats.
