NY-20 Special Election

[Rowan]

there are actually more absentee ballots from counties Murphy won that Tedisco did.

So? That means nothing.

[Rowan]

Although there are more absentee ballots from Republicans than Democrats to be counted, there are actually more absentee ballots from counties Murphy won that Tedisco did.

I predict another "fraken" recount with enough spoiled and illegal votes being counted to give Murphy the win.

More absentees are from Republicans than Democrats, but the district itself is more Republican than Democrat, and the GOP advantage is absentees is a bit smaller than the GOP registration advantage.  If the GOP & Dem turnout was similar (giving the GOP close to the 16 point registration edge they have) the fact that a 16 point GOP registration advantage wound up in pretty much a tie, a smaller advantage than that with the absentees favors Murphy.  The real question is, are the Republicans who voted absentee as likely to cross party lines as the Republicans that voted on March 31st.  If that is the case its going to be very hard for Tedisco to pull this off.  With that being said, it is still likely going to come down to a couple hundred votes either way once this is all over.

But we don't know that the people that went to the polls were at a 16 point GOP advantage.

[Rowan]

It would be helpful to know if this is the results of a complete recanvass or if there are still more counties to finish.

[Rowan]

Murphy up 83 now.

Only 2 small counties left to recanvass, Greene and Essex.

http://www.politickerny.com/2949/murphy-leads-83-judge-says-start-counting-paper-ballots-wednesday-finish-machine-recanvass-asap

[Rowan]

Murphy up 83 now.

Only 2 small counties left to recanvass, Greene and Essex.

http://www.politickerny.com/2949/murphy-leads-83-judge-says-start-counting-paper-ballots-wednesday-finish-machine-recanvass-asap

Greene is not that small - it has about 6.4% of the NY-20 vote in so far.  By comparison, Washington County has 8.4% of the vote - and had the biggest flip in the pre-recanvass numbers.  Essex is the second smallest county in the district.

My mistake. I knew Essex was a small one, but wasn't sure about Greene. I think Ostego is the other small one.

[Rowan]

Also, The Albany Project is reporting that Murphy has gained 13 votes from Dutchess.

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6234/ny20-murphy-picks-up-33-votes-in-delaware-dutchess-counties

[Rowan]

NY-20 Update:

Tedisco up 24 overall.

This includes all recanvassing and some absentees being counted. Murphy has gained 44 votes from absentees counted so far.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults040909.pdf

[Rowan]

Take this as you like. Dailykos claims Tedisco is challenging every ballot from a voter with a 2nd home in the district in Columbia county, which may be depressing Murphy's total by as much as 100.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/4/9/718067/-NY-20:-Urgent-distress-call-from-Columbia-County

They'll be counted eventually, so it really doesn't matter. It's not like they are being thrown out, they are being put aside for now.

[Rowan]

Hm, I'm not following this as closely as I intended. Is there a date where all the ballots must be counted?

Nope. Could take weeks.

[Rowan]

NY-20 Update

Murphy ahead by 8.

Murphy ahead by 76 on absentee ballots counted so far.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults040909b.pdf

[Rowan]

Why doesn't every state just have touch screen machines?

[Rowan]

NY-20 Update:

Murphy up by 46.

Delaware, Essex, Ostego, and Rensselear have finished counting paper ballots.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults041009.pdf

[Rowan]

Seems like a good enough Murphy lead in absentees only so far.

Can anyone please explain to me (I haven't followed this all the time) why there's such a discrepancy between the Election Night Vote (Murphy up by 60 or so) and the recanvassing (Tedisco up 70) Why are these counties not able to produce final numbers on Election Night ... ?

They were just errors in reporting. For example, a person on the phone saying 769 instead of 796. During canvassing they go back and check for errors.

[Rowan]

Seems like a good enough Murphy lead in absentees only so far.

Can anyone please explain to me (I haven't followed this all the time) why there's such a discrepancy between the Election Night Vote (Murphy up by 60 or so) and the recanvassing (Tedisco up 70) Why are these counties not able to produce final numbers on Election Night ... ?

They were just errors in reporting. For example, a person on the phone saying 769 instead of 796. During canvassing they go back and check for errors.

But 100 votes ? The should check the numbers in a precinct 2 times or 3 times or 5 times on Election Night and then report it to the SBOE. Sry, but I just hate it if there are 10 different results around all the time ...

I think in the rush to get the results out as soon as possible, errors are inevitable. Most of the time these errors go unnoticed because the race isn't close enough to begin with. The only time we notice it is when we have an extremely close race like this.

[Rowan]

Update on Saratoga:

Tyler Brown, a Tedisco spokesman, said the assemblyman was up around 90 votes in the county. Democrats involved in the recount there put Tedisco's net gain in Saratoga closer to 70.

These numbers don't include any of the ballots that have been objected to, which one attorney representing Murphy's campaign estimated at around 400. They will be sent to Poughkeepsie, where they are subject to an ongoing court case scheduled to continue Monday.

http://www.politickerny.com/3023/murphy-46-latest-still-no-results-saratoga

[Rowan]

Update on Saratoga:

Tyler Brown, a Tedisco spokesman, said the assemblyman was up around 90 votes in the county. Democrats involved in the recount there put Tedisco's net gain in Saratoga closer to 70.

These numbers don't include any of the ballots that have been objected to, which one attorney representing Murphy's campaign estimated at around 400. They will be sent to Poughkeepsie, where they are subject to an ongoing court case scheduled to continue Monday.

http://www.politickerny.com/3023/murphy-46-latest-still-no-results-saratoga

That's good news for Murphy.  Tedisco is going to get crushed in the Columbia County absentees, which are majority Democrat.  90 votes will be easy to overcome.  Tedisco has to hope the objected-to Saratoga ballots are overwhelmingly pro-Tedisco.

They are less than halfway done counting Saratoga.

[Rowan]

Update:

Washington attorney and former President Reagan White House counsel David Nolan has been acting as a volunteer attorney for the Tedisco campaign, and says though the numbers are currently going in Murphy’s favor, the Democrat has not widened the gap enough in the county to pull out a victory in the entire 20th District.

“How I see it, is that Columbia County is make or break,” Nolan said Thursday night. “I think we are over the top and have weathered the storm.”

Nolan says the republicans have been making most of the challenges over the past two days and the majority have been related to ballots from people who are registered to vote in Columbia County but whose driver’s licenses state that they live in New York City.

Nolan said it is his estimation that Murphy will need to carry 66 to 75 percent of the vote in Columbia County to top Tedisco district-wide.

http://www.registerstar.com/articles/2009/04/10/news/news01.txt

[Rowan]

The BIG news so far is that Tedisco is leading those Warren ballots. Murphy won Warren big so if Tedisco can win or at least keep it close there, he has to like his chances.

[Rowan]

4:30PM Board of Elections Update:

Murphy  77,804 (50.01%)
Tedisco  77,769 (49.99%)

Difference 35

Some of the Warren County votes came in (about 46%).  They were breaking more Republican than the machine count.  Overall, the absentees are still running 3.4 points better for Murphy than the machine count.  Otsego is the only other county running more pro-Tedisco.

The Rennselaer county difference was reflected in this update - Tedisco picked up a handful of votes from absentees voting for him on the Conservative party line.  Still nothing from Saratoga or Washington Counties.

If you add the Columbia County numbers from the Poughkeepsie paper, Murphy is up by 77. 

What Poughkeepsie numbers? If they were valid I'm sure they would have been reported to the state by now.

[Rowan]

4:30PM Board of Elections Update:

Murphy  77,804 (50.01%)
Tedisco  77,769 (49.99%)

Difference 35

Some of the Warren County votes came in (about 46%).  They were breaking more Republican than the machine count.  Overall, the absentees are still running 3.4 points better for Murphy than the machine count.  Otsego is the only other county running more pro-Tedisco.

The Rennselaer county difference was reflected in this update - Tedisco picked up a handful of votes from absentees voting for him on the Conservative party line.  Still nothing from Saratoga or Washington Counties.

If you add the Columbia County numbers from the Poughkeepsie paper, Murphy is up by 77. 

What Poughkeepsie numbers? If they were valid I'm sure they would have been reported to the state by now.

Numbers from an article published last night by the Poughkeepsie Journal newspaper.  They were right on the money with the Rensselaer County missing Tedisco votes.  They probably independently contacted the Columbia County Board of Elections for their higher count.  The Albany Times-Union's Capitol Confidential blog had the Essex County numbers before the State BOE did.

Exercise caution on the Warren County numbers.  Only half is in - and Republicans may have made a bunch of objections that decreased Murphy's count.  Same in Otsego - the other county where Tedisco is performing better than the machine count.  Many votes were objected to, so things might not be as good for Tedisco as they may appear.

The Poughkeepsie numbers now match the state numbers.

http://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/article/20090411/NEWS01/904110320

[Rowan]

NY-20 Update:

Murphy up by 56.

Columbia County counted more ballots where Tedisco is getting killed. I really don't see how Tedisco wins this.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults041409.pdf

[Rowan]

Saratoga is reporting its absentees today, Tedisco could be back in the lead within 24 hours

It won't last long. Columbia, Warren, Dutchess, Washington still have to count ballots too.

[Rowan]

Saratoga is reporting its absentees today, Tedisco could be back in the lead within 24 hours

It won't last long. Columbia, Warren, Dutchess, Washington still have to count ballots too.

I thought they had to count the overseas, still.

Only 205 military ballots came back, and around 200 "federal" ballots. Most likely the military will break for the Republican and the federal will break for the Democrat, it being a wash.

[Rowan]

NY-20 Update:

Murphy leads by 47.

Delaware and Ostego counted their military and overseas ballots today.

In Ostego, only 4 military and federal ballots were returned. They went 4 for Tedisco and 0 for Murphy. In Delaware, it says 33 military and federal ballots were returned, but only 25 were counted so far. Tedisco has won 15, and Murphy has won 10.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults041409b.pdf

[Rowan]

apparently the complaint against Gillibrand is that Tedisco's campaign say that they knew for a fact that she was in the district that day and thus should have voted in person

I kinda don't like this "no-excuse" absentee voting. It allows for too much chance for fraud.