New DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll

[Rowan]

Are we going to sticky this tracking poll too?

And what about the IA tracking poll?

[Rowan]

If DailyKos is showing a tie, McCain is winning.

Just because you wish it to be true doesn't make it so.

Apparently, they over represent Democrats.  So even after that, McCain's tied.

They have McCain up 7 among independents. If that is true, they HAVE to be oversampling Dems in order to get a tie.

If MAC wins Indies by 7 on election day, he wins comfortably.

[Rowan]

At least they are willing to release ALL internals of their tracking poll, unlike the major pollsters.

[Rowan]

How convienent that the night a Obama +3 sample rolls off a new one comes on. Couldn't be any bias in there could it?

[Rowan]

More trash from the Kooks:

Obama 48%
McCain 45%

[Rowan]

More trash from the Kooks:

Obama 48%
McCain 45%

The internals look decent.

Did you look at the part where the party breakdown is D-35/R-26?

That is not decent.

[Rowan]

They have blacks and latinos both at 13% which is pretty questionable IMO.

[Rowan]

The internals are just downright hilarious.

[Rowan]

And tell them to stop somehow finding all Palin haters in their polls. They actually have her as a -5 NET UNFAVORABLE.

They are a joke.

[Rowan]

It's stickied now because Obama has a 6 point lead in the poll now.

[Rowan]

Last nights sample Obama +7, is actually better for McCain than the previous two nights which were Obama +8. McCain has the momentum!

[Rowan]

Last nights sample Obama +7, is actually better for McCain than the previous two nights which were Obama +8. McCain has the momentum!

You've piqued my curiosity:  Are you being serious?

Yes, the previous two nights were Obama 50%-McCain 42%. Last night was Obama 49%-McCain 42%. Clearly Obama's support is eroding!

[Rowan]

Sunday September 21, 2008
Obama 49%
McCain 42%

McCain has the momentum! Last nights sample was only Obama +6!

[Rowan]

Futher erosion of Obama's lead. Last nights individual sample was Obama +4.

MAC IS BACK!

[Rowan]

Tuesday September 23, 2008
Obama 49%(nc)
McCain 43%(nc)

[Rowan]

Todays numbers adjusted for a more reasonable E-Day composition:

White (76%): Obama 39%, McCain 50%
African-American (11%): Obama 94%, McCain 3%
Latino (10%): Obama 67%, McCain 21%
Asians/Others (3%): Obama 83%, McCain 4%

Obama 49.2%, McCain 40.6%

Dailykos/R2000 is based on 73% White, 13% African-American, 13% Latino and 1% Other.

Underestimating both McCain's white and Latino support. It's a dirty little trick they pull in their polls, instead of raising Obama's number(which would raise suspicion), they just move all of McCains support to Undecided. It happens at the rate of a point a day in each of the internals. I have a spreadsheet with the internals from everyday of the poll. It's striking how they are manipulating the numbers. Here are a few examples:

60+ on September 11
McCain 54%, Obama 39%
60+ Today
McCain 45%, Obama 42%

McCain favorability on September 11
55% favorable, 44% unfavorable
McCain favorability Today
42% favorable, 45% unfavorable

So apparently Kos wants us to believe that 13 percent of seniors are now undecided when there were only 7 percent undecided 3 weeks ago. Yeah right.

And now they want us to believe only 87% can form an opinion on McCain when 99% had some type of opinion on him 3 weeks ago. They are a joke.

EDIT One more example:
Latino on September 11
Obama 67%-McCain 28%
Latino Today
Obama 67%-McCain 21%

So Obamas support hasn't grown but 7% of McCains has moved to undecided? Yeah right.

[Rowan]

Todays numbers adjusted for a more reasonable E-Day composition:

White (76%): Obama 39%, McCain 50%
African-American (11%): Obama 94%, McCain 3%
Latino (10%): Obama 67%, McCain 21%
Asians/Others (3%): Obama 83%, McCain 4%

Obama 49.2%, McCain 40.6%

Dailykos/R2000 is based on 73% White, 13% African-American, 13% Latino and 1% Other.

Underestimating both McCain's white and Latino support.

EDIT One more example:
Latino on September 11
Obama 67%-McCain 28%
Latino Today
Obama 67%-McCain 21%

So Obamas support hasn't grown but 7% of McCains has moved to undecided? Yeah right.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx

Rasmussen has long not shown a breakdown by race, but when they did they had Obama up by 30 or so among Latinos and that was when the race was close nationally. McCain can be really happy if he gets a third of Latinos right now or on E-Day.

But 21%? Thats one out of 5, he has to be doing better than that.