Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Rowan]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Alcon's model disagrees with you (on both extremes). His makes much more sense, too, because it doesn't have the wild swings.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=84114.0

I've already shown that model to be wrong. If you aren't using the exact three day number to two decimal places(which he is not) there is no way for the numbers to be right.

[Rowan]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Thats just really really silly. Of course there is noise within a tracker, but O+10 to M+1, back to O+12 and then down to M+3 is completely illogical. If those are the actual results (and we know ras doesn't release them) then there is something badly badly wrong with his polling. But I don't believe those are his figures and thats just someone somewhere (maybe you?) taking the piss. There will be 1 to 3 point movement from day to day, thats all - backed up by the tracker only moving 1 or 2 points every day.

Who the heck makes you the resident expert on tracking polls?

[Rowan]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Thats just really really silly. Of course there is noise within a tracker, but O+10 to M+1, back to O+12 and then down to M+3 is completely illogical. If those are the actual results (and we know ras doesn't release them) then there is something badly badly wrong with his polling. But I don't believe those are his figures and thats just someone somewhere (maybe you?) taking the piss. There will be 1 to 3 point movement from day to day, thats all - backed up by the tracker only moving 1 or 2 points every day.

Who the heck makes you the resident expert on tracking polls?

No-one and nothing. Just like to see a bit of logic being used, thats all.

I mean, if you're telling me that its perfectly normal for wild 15 point swings to occur from one day to the next in tracking polls, and yet the three-day tracker to not move over that time, well I think you're a loon.

It all depends on who picks up the phone that night.

[Rowan]

The only thing I would point out, muon2, is that I separately calculated the averages of the one-day samples using the internals of the separate one-day only polls used in:

1) Debate results (Saturday Prez sample)
2) Bailout numbers (Sunday Prez sample)

When Rasmussen gives these numbers, he also gives the internals of how they break down in GE w/leaners (McCain v. Obama).  

While not entirely accurate (he does not include the small number of undecideds), we can use these internals multiplied to the actual support of the other numbers to make an educated guess at the end number.  So, this adds a bit of a cross-check into the analysis.

For Saturday, I said Obama +7 to 8 (the formula has it at 7.70%)
For Sunday, I said McCain +2 (the formula has it at 3.22%).  Looking at the numbers again now, and doing the calculations, McCain +3 actually fits more accurately with the internals.

I'm not saying your estimate is wrong, I'm just saying that the variation is suspiciously large. I recognize I only have 6 points to deal with, so this set can be a statistical fluke. However, I think the occurrence of three points outside the 95% range, when I expect less than one gives me reason to raise a question.

Nah, I understand your point.  My main concern has to do with whether the beginning of the sequence is incorrect or not.  If it is, then the entire sequence would be wrong.  All we could do is tell, vis-a-vis the three-day average, that McCain's numbers improved 2.09% (roughly) in comparison to yesterday's numbers.  We couldn't tell the *starting off point*, which would allow us to determine how this movement compares to the sample that dropped off (which would then be able to give us the actual daily sample).

This is one of the reasons why I'm starting to do the internal one-day checks on Rasmussen's other questions that he asks that are released separately in the polling database.  I want to see how close my guesstimates come to the ladder sequence.  So, for the last two days, these have been my guesstimates (based on the internals):

Sat (debate sample):  O53-M45
Sun (bailout sample):  M50-O47

They might be a tad lower on both sides (more undecideds), but considering the fact that Friday's sample was most certainly a high undecided sample (both candidates moved downwards in raw internals, clearly), I have to believe that this is a reasonable guess.

The best test would be an extended time correlation analysis. If data over the last 3 weeks shows a strong three day cycle then the initial data is likely off. The good part of this type of analysis is that it can pick up cycles independent of an underlying long-term trend.

I'm not saying your estimate is wrong, I'm just saying that the variation is suspiciously large. I recognize I only have 6 points to deal with, so this set can be a statistical fluke. However, I think the occurrence of three points outside the 95% range, when I expect less than one gives me reason to raise a question.

but this is statistics, clustering is always a possibility.

Clustering is a statistical possibility, but a persistent three-day cycle would indicate a systematic bias in the process. This assumes that short term effects should be statistical, and there is no external environmental effect to provide voter shifts in a three-day pattern.

I agree with your conclusion, muon.  I really don't have the time to implement it though.  So, this is the best I can do unless Rowan provides us proof for his sequence, which is the same third-party that provided us the secrets to begin with. 

Yeah, all mine is from a third-party source, who without we wouldn't know the exact three day average. But I do not know how he determines the individual days, and I am not smart enough to figure it out.

[Rowan]

Rasmussen now says 46% of people think Obama is too inexperienced, up from 41% two weeks ago.

[Rowan]

For some reason Rasmussen is being lazy about posting the daily snapshot today so that I can tell you more, but IMO, the ladder Rowan's been posting has to be incorrect, examining the other internals for the inexperienced and old polls conducted today.

In sum, they really don't make any sense, especially considering the undecideds have to be so low, unless today's sample is roughly about Obama +4 to Obama +6, maybe Obama +7.

It probably could be wrong.

Looks like a lot of the movement today came from Independent men.

Obama stretched his lead among indies from +2 to +6, and cut MAC's lead among men to just two points.

[Rowan]

Black vote in Rasmussen polls:
MS: Obama 98%-McCain 2%
TN: Obama 98%-McCain 2%

Disgusting....

[Rowan]

Black vote in Rasmussen polls:
MS: Obama 98%-McCain 2%
TN: Obama 98%-McCain 2%

Disgusting....

If you were a voter of X descent and A party embraced the X group while the B party has people who have prejudices against you, how would you vote?

Oh thats right, Republicans are racist. I forgot. My bad.

[Rowan]

Thursday-October 2, 2008
Obama 51%(nc)
McCain 44%(-1)

[Rowan]

Very true. You would be shocked by the amount of times at work I've heard McCain called a "cracker" and Palin called "a stupid whore".

Where do you work that it's appropriate to call someone a whore?

McDonalds.

[Rowan]

I wish we just posted the raw margins:

Obama +6.70 to Obama +6.63

Change: McCain +0.07

Ain't no stoppin us now, we've got the groove...

[Rowan]

Are people seriously arguing McCain's 0.07% gain is statistically significant?

A change doesn't magically become meaningful at the 95% rate.  That's dumb.  Being "out of the MoE" isn't magic, it's just arbitrary.  This change is at the low 50%s confidence rate.  That doesn't make it meaningless.  Statistically, yeah.

But that's a generalized nitpick with "statistical tie"-type stuff.  A 0.07% change is almost meaningless, and is grasping at straws.

It just depends on what kind of day fell off the tracker. Since its almost impossible to know, we will have to wait a couple of days.

[Rowan]

Time to start looking to 2012. Who's up? Palin? Romney? Huck?

[Rowan]

Time to start looking to 2012. Who's up? Palin? Romney? Huck?

With those names, you should start looking to 2016

Believe me, if the economy doesn't improve in the next 4 years, Obama will be out in a heartbeat. Anyone will be able to beat him.

[Rowan]

Thursday- October 9, 2008
Obama 50%(-1)
McCain 45%(nc)

[Rowan]

It takes me way too long to find the results of the tracking poll in this thread because of the two pages of bullsh**t discussion involved after every posting.

Just go to rasmussenreports.com and shut your trap.

[Rowan]

Drudge is reporting tomorrow is 50%-45% Obama lead.

[Rowan]

Interestingly, both candidates have lost support the past few days and there are now more undecideds.

[Rowan]

Sam Spade, do you know what states besides New Mexico will be released today ?

I know I'm not Sam Spade but I'll answer anyway.

5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Kansas President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       New Mexico President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Massachusetts President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Illinois President

[Rowan]

Sam Spade, do you know what states besides New Mexico will be released today ?

I know I'm not Sam Spade but I'll answer anyway.

5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Kansas President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       New Mexico President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Massachusetts President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Illinois President

Ahhh, thx !

My predictions:

Kansas: McCain 55-42
New Mexico: Obama 51-44
Massachusetts: Obama 59-37
Illinois: Obama 56-41

Here's a hint: you'll like the numbers.

[Rowan]

Very good news. The "certain to vote for" is now at 41%-41%. The base support is now even for each candidate so its up to the leaners that will decide it.

[Rowan]

3 p.m. Eastern: New York President
5 p.m. Eastern: Ohio President
5 p.m. Eastern: Oregon President
5 p.m. Eastern: Connecticut President

[Rowan]

3 p.m. Eastern: New York President
5 p.m. Eastern: Ohio President
5 p.m. Eastern: Oregon President
5 p.m. Eastern: Connecticut President

Why can't they poll AR, ND or WV ?

Because CT and NY are clear battleground states. DUH.

[Rowan]

Probably a debate bounce.

Or noise.

[Rowan]

Saturday-October 18, 2008
Obama 50.25%(-.09%)
McCain 45.46%(-.43%)

Tomorrow will be the most important day. A really good Mac sample will fall off tomorrow meaning that Obama should gain a point or 2 IMO.