Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Rowan]

McCain obviously won last night. I'm waiting to see by how much.

[Rowan]

Three night actual average:

Obama 48.07%-McCain 47.80%

Last night McCain won by 5.09%.

So the last three days(most recent first):

McCain +5.09%
Obama +3.40%
Obama +2.12%

[Rowan]

I get the numbers from another person Sam, who I am beginning to start to doubt....

[Rowan]

Nevertheless here are the numbers.

Three day average:
Obama 49.40%
McCain 46.56%

Last nights result(estimated of course):
Obama +9.83

[Rowan]

I trust my numbers. Whether you want to believe them or not, it's up to you.

I will continue to post them here for those that want them.

[Rowan]

Why'd the doubt go away since lunch time?

When I originally got the numbers, I misread them and thought that the result was impossible.

After talking to the person, they assured me of the results, and I agreed.

I trust my numbers.

[Rowan]

Do you both have RAS premium? I can send it to both of you if you want.

[Rowan]

Thursday- September 25,2008

Obama 48%(-1)
McCain 45%(-2)

[Rowan]

Rowan, with leaners it's:

Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 46% (-1)

Oops I effed up.

[Rowan]

Actual three day total:

Obama 49.47%
McCain 45.96%

Obama +3.51

Last nights sample:

Obama +5.78

And with a McCain +5 sample rolling off, this could get real ugly in a hurry tomorrow.

[Rowan]

Told you it was gonna get ugly real quick. Tomorrow should be a little better for McCain.

[Rowan]

Actual three day average:
Obama 49.95%
McCain 45.16%

Last nights estimate:

McCain +1.25

A HUGE Obama +11 sample will fall off tomorrow.

[Rowan]

Interesting to see that the public thinks Obama is the better debater. I'd say they are about even, although I'd probably give Obama a slight edge if I had too.

Also I'm certainly looking foward to that VA update.

Maybe its not that they see him as a better debater, but that they see him as a better speaker overall, which they think will translate to the debate.

[Rowan]

at this point, I am more inclined to believe Ras over Gallop, but it is strange that they are moving in opposite directions

Two big Obama outliers will roll off in the next two days. Gallup and RAS will be back near each other shortly.

[Rowan]

Interesting to see that the public thinks Obama is the better debater. I'd say they are about even, although I'd probably give Obama a slight edge if I had too.

Also I'm certainly looking foward to that VA update.

Maybe its not that they see him as a better debater, but that they see him as a better speaker overall, which they think will translate to the debate.

He is a better debater, but if I was in talking point campaign mode, I would say he wasn't, as to lower expectations.

Hillary is better than them both, and she made Obama look bad at times, but McCain would get owned in a debate by Hillary too.

I agree about Hillary. She owned Obama sometimes, and probably would have done the same to McCain on some points.

[Rowan]

at this point, I am more inclined to believe Ras over Gallop, but it is strange that they are moving in opposite directions

Two big Obama outliers will roll off in the next two days. Gallup and RAS will be back near each other shortly.

but the state data tells me that Obama is ahead nationally by about 3-5 points, that's why I believe RAS over Gallup

That's because the state polls lag the national polls by a week or so.

[Rowan]

I thought the sample that will fall off is O+10?

Ya, state polls tend to lag national polls a little.  Never quite figured out why.

O +10, O+11 same difference.

[Rowan]

Saturday- September 27, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

I'm starting to get worried now.

[Rowan]

If it remains at least a 3-4 point lead two weeks from now, I will be ready to throw in the towel.

[Rowan]

Also Obama has gained a lot among white women the last couple of days. He now leads by 3, when McCain lead by 5 as recent as a few days ago.

[Rowan]

Unfortunately, your image is incorrect looking at the numbers.  It should be a missile crashing into the ground.  To help with some actual numbers:

Obama 49.81% (yesterday - 49.95%)
McCain 44.37% (yesterday - 45.16%)

So McCain is losing support but Obama is not gaining? Thats a little bit of good news.

[Rowan]

So a huge Obama day rolled over the tracker and he still gained 3 points??

He didn't gain anything. McCain lost one point.

[Rowan]

One other minor point:  The gender gap has gotten quite large over the past couple of weeks.

Does that mean anything? Or is it just an interesting observation?

It means that women like Obama and men like McCain.

[Rowan]

It's now 49-42 without leaners and the certain to vote for question is 42-38.

MAC gains two among Indies but other than that not much real movement in the internals.

[Rowan]

Numbers-wise, today's sample was better than the one that went off for Obama.  For McCain it was roughly about the same.  I'll estimate it as Obama +7.68%.  A pro-McCain sample comes off tomorrow, so there well could be another bump.

Last night estimate:
Obama +7.7%

But it is a bit of an improvement considering it was Obama +11 the previous night.