1964: Stevenson/Humphrey vs. Goldwater/Miller

[cmt]

Let's assume that President Johnson does decide to not seek a full term in the WH.  He announces just prior to the convention, so that he will have a big hand in naming his successor.  It comes down to Sen. Hubert Humphrey and UN Ambassador Adlai Stevenson.  Stevenson, twice the Dem nominee (or sacrifice) vs. Eisenhower in the 50's is nominated and asks his good friend Hubert to be his running mate.  On the GOP side things go according to convention--and Goldwater is nominated and selects Rep. Miller of NY as his running mate (just as he actually did).



I still see '64 as a Dem year with Stevenson (third time the charm) winning 323-215 in the electoral college.  Goldwater picks up some southern states like Texas and Florida and some conservative farm belt states like NE, KS, and the Dakotas.  He also takes traditionally GOP Indiana and narrowly beats Stevenson in Ohio.  I think Stevenson/Humphrey still hold all of the Northeastern states and Illinois and Michigan--as well as the west coast and a couple of other western states. 

[cmt]

Well Mac, believe it or not there was speculation that Stevenson might be Johnson's VP nominee which I found in the book "Adlai Stevenson and the World".  Also, Stevenson was not a terrible candidate, infact, he came out of his 1952 campaign with a lot of respect from voters for his intelligence and wit.  He happened to have the misfortune of running against Eisenhower the most popular man of his time and still was able to win 45% and 43% of the vote respectively.  In my scenerio I didn't make it clear but I have Johnson arranging for Stevenson and Humphrey to be his two top choice and they would have to fight it out at the convention and at the convention Stevenson still had a lot of support from his 1950's campaigns. 

Finally, Barry Goldwater couldn't of won in 1964.  I know you wish it to have happened, but it couldn't have.  You give him NH, ME, VT, CT and NJ and given his hard right reputation at the time he would not have won the liberal independent and repbulican vote (both of which was still strong in the early 60's) in the Northeast.  I would also argue that it is much more likely that Goldwater would have won Texas than California.  1964 with JFK's assassination still fresh and a strong, robust economy was a Democratic year.

[cmt]

Mac, I never said Stevenson was a "great candidate" I just pointed out that he was respected for his intelligence and wit.  If he had run against a mere mortal like Taft I think he may have won in 1952.  Now you keep saying that Johnson delivered Texas to HHH in '68--certainly he helped, but remember HHH won Texas over Nixon by only about 39,000 votes.  What really delivered Texas to HHH was George Wallace in 1968 who won 584,269 votes.  If Wallace hadn't been the American Independent candidate in '68 I feel pretty confident that Nixon would have won Texas.  I feel Goldwater would certainly have defeated Stevenson in Texas in '64 if it had been a race between them.