This looks accurate, not +14. Lining up with a solid, but not landslide Biden lead, especially if the majority of undecideds break for the incumbent.
Why would the majority of undecideds break for a highly unpopular incumbent?
He is not highly unpopular. His numbers are below his approval rating.
*shrug* Believe what you like. Trump has been underwater in approval throughout his entire presidency, and his disapproval numbers have been mostly "strong disapproval", a group that is almost impossible to convert. Yes, his horse race numbers are below his approval ratings, but not by much -- 1.7 points at 538 and 3.1 at RCP. But even his approval numbers would be losing in the two-way race.
I am explaining why the majority of undecideds would break for Trump. Not saying he is winning.
