Rate Arizona in a Clinton vs. Trump election

[Ljube]

TRUMP will win it, but it will be close.

[Ljube]

but the whites around the state will stay a stubborn 60% R or so.

Actually, if whites are only 60% R, that could flip the state.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2015/08/27/on-the-prospects-of-a-blue-arizona/

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Hispanics leaned more to McCain than Obama relative to nation in 2008 in Arizona, but quickly moved D, especially after Romney's self deportation. Trump is only going to accelerate that trend.

If Clinton can bring whites back to their historical norm of 40% D, she stands a decent chance of winning here, with the exploding Hispanic population, and their continued migration to Ds.

Just why do you believe Clinton can get more whites than Obama?

[Ljube]

Just why do you believe Clinton can get more whites than Obama?

Democrats have averaged 41% -/+ for a long time. 39% in 2012 was likely due to the slow recovery from the recession and other Obama-related factors. Just because a Democrat pulls in that number once doesn't mean it's the new ceiling. If it were, then Democrats would be in the low 30s by now seeing as Mondale got something like 36% in 1984. Or we could go with Clinton's 39% in one of his elections?

Democratic policies are generally anti-white and in particular against working class whites. No way Hillary can get more whites against TRUMP if Obama couldn't against an enemy of the working class - Romney.

[Ljube]

Dems didnt field a strong Senate challenge, here, given defference to McCain. McCain will win and so will Trump, around six points

A more pertinent question here would be: will TRUMP and McCain reconcile?

[Ljube]

But more importantly, your theory here rests on a shaky foundation. You think Trump won't lose any white voters due to his nasty campaign and policies? If you think he won't, then you are lying to yourself.

Virginia, TRUMP doesn't have those votes. But no Republican would be able to win those votes. Let's not kid ourselves.

[Ljube]

Virginia, TRUMP doesn't have those votes. But no Republican would be able to win those votes. Let's not kid ourselves.

What? No Republican can win white votes?

He's trying to make the argument that white voters who hold an unfavorable view of Trump are already unwinnable for Republicans.  

Exactly! Plus all Republicans telling pollsters now they will never vote for TRUMP will eventually fall in line. Even dudeabides will vote for TRUMP. Torie will probably be the last holdout.

[Ljube]

He's trying to make the argument that white voters who hold an unfavorable view of Trump are already unwinnable for Republicans.  

Oh, thank you!

And with that - That is basically the stupidest thing I've read all day. To act like Trump is a Republican hero and offends none of them is preposterous. So typical of some people to think that only Democrats can lose voters due to unfavorable candidates, but certainly not Republicans!

Today has been exceptionally hard with the Trump-related idiocy and bias.

If today was hard, think how hard Nov 9th is going to be.

[Ljube]

Virginia, TRUMP doesn't have those votes. But no Republican would be able to win those votes. Let's not kid ourselves.

What? No Republican can win white votes?

He's trying to make the argument that white voters who hold an unfavorable view of Trump are already unwinnable for Republicans. 

I'm a white voter who holds an unfavorable opinion of Trump. I voted McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 and Rauner in 2014. Am I "unwinnable" for Republicans?

No, you are a Republican and you will vote TRUMP.