OH, Ras: Romney in the lead

[Ljube]

A two point lead within the margin of error is not very convincing.

It's actual votes that matter, not polls.

Pollsters have a tough time polling people correctly due to low response and huge early voting efforts. I also think Democrats tend to not respond to Rasmussen inquiries and Republicans to PPP. That seems to be the root cause for their perceived partisan bias and not their respective agenda.

[Ljube]

The early voting numbers are bad for Romney in Ohio.
Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray, Bush’s assistant in 2000 and 2004.

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[Ljube]

The early voting numbers are bad for Romney in Ohio.
Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray, Bush’s assistant in 2000 and 2004.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

How is that bad for Romney? An 8% GOP shift, whether a gross increase of GOP vote share or even just PVI, from 2008 would translate to a Romney win (assuming that increase correlates to final statewide totals, of course).

I don't expect a general swing of 8% in GOP favor. That would be a Romney win for sure.

I’m saying if Romney matches Bush’s turnout on Election Day with an 8% swing of early votes in his favor compared to 2008, he still loses.