MS: Rasmussen: McCain up by 6%

[BamaObama]

It's not at all inconceivable for Obama to net 44% in the 'Sip.  Why?  Because even though MS blacks have always voted for the Democrat, they've had embarrassingly low turnout levels.  If he can increase their turnout totals, it will certainly be a help to him here.

I'm looking forward to see what Obama can do here, though.  Even though nobody is actually thinking he can win it, I'd like to see him stump in Jackson to motivate black voters... thus, helping Musgrove.  He's got the money to make a late August appearance.

[BamaObama]

Made a stupid little calculation based on the figures in the thread above: (%Kerry - %Black)/ (1 - %Black). That is to say, an approximation of Kerry's *minimum* share of the white vote, by county.

Same thing, Musgrove vs Parker 1999.

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In Black-majority counties, Musgrove underperformed worse than Kerry, sometimes ridiculously so. This even goes for Hinds.
Of course, MS governor's races are held in off-years, so black turnout may have been quite low
 

That's definitely it.

Black Southerners, while voting overwhelmingly Democratic, have traditionally low turnout numbers.  This is particularly true in Mississippi.  Given that the Musgrove v. Barber was held in the off-year of 2003, it's easy to see how fewer voters would be driven to the polls.

That's probably applicable across all ethnic groups, too.  Though, it's probably amplified among those with low turnout to begin with...