Sooo... what happened in the 2008 Democratic NH primary?

[prometheus]

Ah yes, I remember sitting there, watching the results come in and turning to my friends after about an hour and saying "You know, I don't think Hillary's lead is going away."  And so the primary went on for another five months.

Basically one reason, mentioned earlier in the thread, is that a lot of NH voters were on the fence about voting for Obama or McCain (hard to believe now), and independents are allowed to show up at the polls and choose which primary to participate in.  Polls show Obama easily winning and McCain barely ahead of Romney = these voters vote for McCain.  Romney actually won registered Republicans.

There was also record turnout for the primary, especially for the Democrats and (I believe) in Hillsborough County in particular (I know that my town, in Hillsborough, ran out of Democratic ballots).  High turnout probably helped Hillary (again, I know my town was overwhelmingly for her and I think she also cleaned up in Manchester).

Another reason which I've heard is something called the "Spiral of Silence" which essentially says that once it looked like Obama had it locked up, there was pressure to vote for him and so a lot of Hillary supporters felt kind of intimidated when talking to pollsters.  They then said that they were undecided or not planning to vote.

The debate may also have shifted a few votes- "likable enough" for example- and possibly the tears.