BRTD's county map predictions

[NOVA Green]

Why is Obama not hitting 60% in Blaine county, BRTD?

Because I didn't realize Kerry came that close and Obama will likely go over the top. Will be changed.

Thanks BRTD! I appreciate your hard work here, I'm glad that someone is making this effort.

Assuming Obama +5 as per your comments, I think that there is an extremely good chance that Marion, Jefferson, Polk, and Curry counties will flip towards Obama. Jackson county is more of a long-shot, although it has been moving increasingly Dem as a result of migration from California and the social conservative vote is much more diluted than in the past.

There is also an outside chance that Deschutes county may go Democratic this year, despite the prevalence of upper-income voters. Remember that this is a county which voted for Lonsdale over Hatfield in '90, and has been trending Democratic the past few cycles.

[NOVA Green]

Larimer and Jefferson are the ones that piss me off in general, because I have no idea which way they will go (in a close race, at least).  Larimer pretty much trended hard to the Democrats because all of the Nader voters broke for Kerry in '04.  Hence that Bush got the same percentage of votes in '00 and '04.

Jefferson pisses me off because it always votes the same way as Arapahoe, but I feel it will vote for McCain in a close race.

The question for those is if McCain can close the gap nationally.  If he can, I feel Jefferson and Larimer will vote for him.  Stay tuned.

I'll tell you for a fact that McCain is losing at least 500 Republican votes from the HP-FTC facilities if not more. Remember that Carly is an "economic adviser" and that this company is still losing jobs overseas as a result of shipping manufacturing jobs overseas to Ireland and Singapore. It might be a relatively small percentage of county votes, but this is one of major large companies operating in Larimer County, and every time a large local employer lays people off while shipping jobs overseas in an election year, it usually doesn't benefit the incumbent pro free-trade party.