As the global food crisis continues to accelerate would not be surprised to see more governments fall globally.
The Economist in their 6/25/22 US edition posted a long story (Pages 59-61) including graphics.
The Economist has built a statistical model to assess the relationship between food- and fuel-price inflation and unrest. We used data from acled, a global research project, on “unrest events” (ie, mass protests, political violence and riots) since 1997. We found that rises in food and fuel prices were a strong portent of political instability, even when controlling for demography and changes in gdp.
We also found cause for alarm about the coming months. Expenditure on imports of food and fuel is set to increase, especially in poor countries (see chart 1). Poor countries’ debts have also risen (see chart 2). The average low-income country has a public-debt-to-gdp ratio of 69.9%, estimates the imf. This, too, is set to increase, and to overtake the (unweighted) average for rich countries this year. Since poor countries typically have to pay much higher interest rates, many of their debts look unsustainable. The imf says 41 countries, home to 7% of the world’s population, are in or at high risk of “debt distress”. Some, such as Laos, are on the brink of default. Our model suggests that many countries will see a doubling of the number of “unrest events” in the coming year (see map).
Places that were precarious before may be tipped over the edge. In Turkey, for example, the disruption of food and fuel imports from Ukraine and Russia adds to the damage already being caused by barmy monetary policy. Mr Erdogan believes that high interest rates cause inflation, rather than curbing it. So he has ordered rates cut even as prices have raged out of control.
https://www.economist.com/international/2022/06/23/costly-food-and-energy-are-fostering-global-unrest
