Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Is Putin's recent international isolation permanent of temporary following the events of the past week?

But Putin has started to look more isolated than he was before the revolt. In the days since the mutiny, just eight world leaders have spoken with him by telephone, including those of Turkey, Iran and Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and three Central Asian neighbors, according to readouts from the Kremlin and the countries involved. “Numerous” others have called to express their solidarity, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a Russian TV channel — but, he added, they have asked for their calls not to be publicized.

Conspicuous among those who haven’t phoned Putin in recent days is Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who once called Putin his “best, most intimate friend” and counts as Russia’s most powerful and important ally. The only comment from China’s Foreign Ministry — that the rebellion was an “internal affair” — unusually put China on the same page as Washington and other Western capitals that have used the same language to maintain distance from the upheaval, noted John Culver, a former CIA analyst focused on China.

The upheaval is unlikely to prompt any immediate policy changes for most countries in the world that have declined to join the Western alliance against Ukraine, said Elizabeth Shackelford, a former U.S. diplomat who is now with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. But it may force a more assertive push for a negotiated solution acceptable to Ukraine and its allies, from China or from countries in Africa, where most leaders have remained favorably inclined toward Putin.

The presence of Wagner mercenaries in several African countries puts Africa at the heart of the rivalries unfolding in Russia and Africans have suffered disproportionately from the food and fuel inflation triggered by the war in Ukraine. An early test of how other leaders continue to view Putin will come in July, when he is scheduled to host a second summit of African leaders in Saint Petersburg. The first, held last October, was attended by 45 African heads of state.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/28/putin-strongman-image-damaged/

[NOVA Green]

Am curious to see if they end up using these T-55/54 tanks for infantry support as well. They are going to get smoked, if so. Last I read, Russia was using these museum pieces as improvised artillery due to heavy losses of actual artillery systems and high shell expenditure rates.

I seem to recall reading within the past couple days that Putin actually mentioned something like (50) Russian tanks lost just within the past week in one of his recent speeches.

Don't have the quote straight at hand, but it is certainly true that despite Ukraine haven lost assets in recent offensive operations, the Russians might well have lost even more.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, regardless of the Israeli sideshow, Tatianna Stanovaya, who is a bit of a Russian guru, not to mention having a significantly increased demand from news outlets for her takes, has a new Tweet out.

Unlike many others, she actually chooses to write on Twitter, more in the style of a basic 2 1/2 page double spaced 100/200 level college course, in this case consisting of (5) paragraphs, each of which contain (3)-(4) sentences.

Unfortunately the nature of such a style of Twitter, is that you will likely need to click on the link in order to read the full text.

Paragraph (3) takes us more into the "meat" of the matter:

I don’t expect a purge in the style of Stalin; that's not Putin's approach. His perspective splits individuals into heroes, traitors (who face severe consequences), or lost souls who may be pardoned if they repent in time. Arrests are possible within this framework, but figures like Surovikin are less likely to be targeted. The challenge here is that Putin isn't the same as before, and there are influential figures with their own agendas, like Sergei Shoigu, who may be interested in eliminating internal opposition. So final fate of Surovikin is unclear.

Paragraph (4) enhances the analysis further:

Prigozhin’s mutiny has underscored a potentially newer quality of the regime, which is not entirely new but is now more apparent. If Putin used to control the players, the power dynamics are now shifting. Given Putin's detachment and distorted view of reality, the players are starting to manipulate Putin. While I was always very reluctant to perceive Putin as being manipulated, the effects of his 23-year reign, his ageing, and the pressures of war could be leading to this shift. Prigozhin's struggle to reach the president and Shoigu's attempt to tackle the Wagner issue are the outcomes of Putin's inaction. This mutiny was so shocking that the regime appeared to many as near to collapse, which significantly undermines Putin’s ability to secure control in the eyes of the political class.

Paragraph (5) starts to move a little more towards the future, which is obviously more prone to pitfalls, than a rigorous examination of past historical events, let alone immediate events where the consequences and implications are far from clear:

Lastly, we're now witnessing the initial signs of an anti-elite trend in society. This shouldn't be confused with anti-Putin or anti-war sentiments. People are becoming increasingly frustrated with an inefficient and bloated elite, either scoffing at them or expressing silent indignation. Although this trend may not have immediate political implications, it may pose potentially a significant challenge later.

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1674422450585731074?s=20

[NOVA Green]

There were unreliable rumblings of this on tg but thought it was propaganda but it looks like it’s true
👀
https://twitter.com/armedmaidan/status/1674540142441250816?s=12
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/29/frontline-report-ukraine-captures-stranded-airborne-company-near-bakhmut-uses-increasibly-flexible-tactics/

Well... ISW has just posted something within the past 45 minutes with a map.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1674601207480958978?s=20

Here is some footage from the Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade posted yesterday:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1674070461221617665?s=20

Naturally let's wait and see more details, but regardless it does appear that thus far the Bakhmut Front has been much more active compared to some of the more limited gains on other fronts.

[NOVA Green]

Not quite sure what is going on here...

Is Russia looking a possibly increasing their fixed wing air assets to use in dangerous usage to blunt potential Ukrainian breakthroughs?

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1673768159768379393?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Putin and Modi had a chat today, although the content of the discussions are not exactly clear:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Vladimir V. Putin on Friday spoke on the phone about last weekend’s short-lived rebellion in Russia and the war in Ukraine, later offering differing accounts of the tone and tenor of the conversation.

The Kremlin said Mr. Modi had asked for the call with Mr. Putin and had expressed understanding and support for the Russian president as he coped with an armed uprising by a mercenary leader.

The Indian government’s brief description of the call, however, said only that Mr. Putin had informed Mr. Modi about the weekend’s developments, and that Mr. Modi had again called for “dialogue and diplomacy” to end war in Ukraine.

According to the Kremlin’s account of the call between the two leaders, Mr. Modi also spoke about his recent visit to Washington, and Mr. Putin described the current state of affairs in Ukraine, emphasizing Kyiv’s unwillingness to resolve the conflict. The conversation was described as informative and constructive, with both leaders reaffirming their mutual commitment to their strategic partnership.

India’s account of the phone call was markedly different in its tone. It said the leaders had agreed to continue further strengthen their strategic partnership.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/30/world/russia-ukraine-news

[NOVA Green]

Russia claims their air defense systems repelled a Ukrainian strike in Berdiansk, although there is some footage which suggests Ukrainian strikes might have hit at least some of their target(s), even if Russian air assets had been redeployed prior.

Storm Shadow missiles quite possibly involved.

On Friday — a day after Ms. Malyar said Kyiv’s forces in the south had advanced about 1,400 yards in the direction of Russian-occupied Berdiansk — explosions were reported in the city. The Ukrainian military said it had carried out a “successful” strike on Berdiansk, though a Kremlin-installed occupation official in southern Ukraine, Vladimir Rogov, claimed that air defenses had repelled a Ukrainian strike.

https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1674720748752056320?s=20

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1674689528886329345?s=20

https://twitter.com/Jackoboyse/status/1674768682399023105?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Yet another likely demonstration of the effectiveness of HIMARS courtesy of "Uncle Sam":

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1675133004614696962?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile within the context of surprising Ukrainian gains around Bakhmut, which most military analysts had considered to be a bit of a feint to tie down Russian troops to prevent reinforcements from what was presumed to be the two main offensive points in Southern Ukraine, talk of even the possibility of a significant encirclement of Russian forces is starting to increase.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1674823927049207828?s=20

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1674080451181289474?s=20

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1674080500221202433?s=20

Jaichind in shambles.

Yeah... Phil's on the mark here.

Overwhelming majority of Americans don't like what they see when it comes to Russian Invasion and Occupation 2.0.

Sure we might have a chunk of Hardcore PUBs rooting for candidates for PREZ '04, including a couple "Cheerleaders" on this very Forum.

Reality is that even the "Cray Cray" PUBs in the US-House, likely won't be able to block additional $$$ for Ukraine come FY '24.

"Power of the Purse", also extremely likely to fail in the US-SEM. regardless of '24 elections.

So yeah, basically looking like crazy repubs trying to block weapons shipments to UKR aren't really representative even with their own constituents.

[NOVA Green]

Prigozhin may still have avoided the fate of "defenestration" (Thanks to Storr for adding a new word to my vocabulary), considered he is rumored in a windowless hotel in Minsk, and assuming the new audio release was made within a timely fashion.

The founder of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, shared an audio message Monday — his first since calling off his mutiny aimed at the leaders atop Russia’s Ministry of Defense. In the recording, which was published on a Telegram channel closely associated with Wagner, Prigozhin said his fighters will win the “next victories” in the war in Ukraine. He also assessed his march on Moscow as successful.

“Our ‘March of Justice’ was aimed at fighting traitors and mobilizing our society,” Prigozhin said. “I think that we have succeeded in much of this.” He did not specify where he is now or discuss Wagner’s plans. It was not immediately apparent when Prigozhin’s latest message was recorded. Other channels linked to Wagner and Prigozhin did not broadcast the message.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/03/russia-ukraine-war-news/

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile for a brief humor interlude (Tweet recommends turning on the volume)...

It's only (9) seconds long so you will not be losing much of your life to watch.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1675015388571090944?s=20

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1676637595302854673?s=12
The consequences of the Wagner Coup D'Blyat is going to be Putin having to purge the only people in his military that are semi competent lol

If true, this runs counter to the vast majority of "informed experts" who see a post mutiny purge of the Russian military as a very bad idea, and more likely to weaken Putin domestically and not strengthen him.

Hell, "The Chef" was able to waltz into Saint Petersburg just the other day and pick up his guns and Millions in cash and gold bars and waltz away with no harm done.

Granted if I were him, I would have had somebody else touch the guns and money with gloves and PPE, so as to not contact some weird chemical poisoning.

[NOVA Green]

I wonder if the cluster bombs will help to dislodge Russian troops from the trenches or if it won’t make an impact.

American and foreign military officials seem to believe they will help:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/07/04/ukraine-wants-american-cluster-bombs-quickly

America itself has not used cluster bombs in action since the first weeks of the Iraq war in 2003. But even those countries that disavow their use recognise that they can be potent weapons. In an article for the British Army Review published in 2019, a British brigadier noted that American DPICMs had “saved the day time and again” by breaking up big enemy formations during division-level exercises. “They were, and are, a game-changer.”

Ben Hodges, a former commander of the US Army in Europe, says that cluster munitions could suppress Russian fire from trenches and artillery, giving Ukraine more time to clear a path through minefields, which are proving to be a serious problem. There are other advantages, too. The area effect means that cluster bombs can be fired more quickly than ordinary high-explosive rounds, since the attacker needs less precise intelligence on the target, allowing the gun to scoot away faster. The supply of DPICMs would also ease pressure on ordinary artillery shells, which are in short supply, and on the overworked barrels that fire them. “I cannot see how momentum can be maintained without them,” says a Western official.

I've seen enough war videos at this point to realize that many Russian targets escape annihilation because regular artillery is only so accurate and often misses, particularly when a given strike can only lob a few shells at a position. Cluster bombs would pepper an area up to 100 meters with dozens of bomblets that could significantly enhance the lethality of strikes while reducing ammunition usage, letting Ukraine do more with less.

I don't really know if the end outcome will allow Ukraine to progress faster, because the issues hindering some advances are not necessarily guys in trenches but minefields, obstacles, and drones that pick off units trying to breach those minefields. But the US government seems to think that they will help enough to be worth the scandalous nature of those munitions.

Besides, if Ukraine wants to keep its artillery fed, it basically has to be cluster bombs, at least until additional production of regular shells comes online. It's the only type of shell America has to give in the millions, considering the military has phased those out.

It should be noted that regardless of the (IMHO: very justifiable reasons why cluster bombs are frowned upon) in terms of impacts on civilian populations, we have yet to see practically how they will play out in a War such as the Ukraine war.

Additionally, apparently these also have a huge % of duds as well...

President Biden is prepared to waive U.S. law prohibiting the production, use or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1 percent to send them to Ukraine, a decision that may come as early as this week amid concerns about Kyiv’s lagging counteroffensive against entrenched Russian troops.

The principal weapon under consideration, an M864 artillery shell first produced in 1987, is fired from the 155mm howitzers the United States and other Western countries have provided Ukraine. In its last publicly available estimate, more than 20 years ago, the Pentagon assessed that artillery shell to have a “dud” rate of 6 percent, meaning that at least four of each of the 72 submunitions each shell carries would remain unexploded across an area of approximately 22,500 square meters — roughly the size of 4½ football fields.

“We are aware of reports from several decades ago that indicate certain 155mm DPICMs have higher dud rates,” said a defense official, one of seven Pentagon, White House and military officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive pending decision. The defense official used the acronym for Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions.

There is no waiver provision in the 1 percent limit Congress has placed on cluster munition dud rates, written into Defense Department appropriations since 2017. Biden would bypass it, according to a White House official, under the Foreign Assistance Act, which allows the president to furnish assistance, regardless of appropriations or arms export restrictions, as long as he notifies Congress that it is “vital to the security of the interests of the United States.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/06/biden-cluster-bombs-ukraine/

[NOVA Green]

Elton John in Ukraine?

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1676712340287287302?s=20

[NOVA Green]

So for anybody curious about the whole DPICM Cluster Munition thing and potentially military applications for UKR, the War Zone has a good summary.

(Free website no paywall or registration required).

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/what-dpicm-cluster-munitions-are-and-why-ukraine-wants-them-so-bad

[NOVA Green]

This is a really good article. My hope is that maybe these could blow up some of the mines in the area. It seems like the minefields are really making this counteroffensive slow going because or the huge risk walking through them.

The Ukrainian army has special demining vehicles. The question is their number.

The good thing about the clusters are that each will essentially take out a football field’s worth of space, destroying mines and Russians in the area. Plus they’re much quicker and borderline impossible to hit unlike a truck moving 15 mph.

I really think these are just what Ukraine needs to blast through the orcish lines. But Biden better give them ATACMS once they’re near the Sea of Azov to splash down the bridge

Not quite sure where this whole thing about DCPIM's being able to take out minefields came from.

Sure they have capabilities on reinforced Russian trenches in weak lines, plus Russian armored military counter-attacks on open terrain, but yeah demining vehicles and UKR capabilities are an entirely different issue on the flat lands of the Southern Front.

Let's face it we are a bit beyond Ukrainian Farmers towing Russian tanks from back in the dayz, plus defensive capacity of Russian forces have improved, regardless of how degraded many of these units are.

Sure Russia has no real reserves left, and continues to camp down 35-50k Russian troops alone in Bakhmut, but still no breakthrough with about two months left until the Fall "Mud Season" kicks in.

Still, UKR still has roughly (9) full strength BTGs with Western kit, many of whom have had crash course training in England, Germany, or Poland.

Patience young Jedi...

[NOVA Green]

Babe, it's 4pm! Time for your military aid package

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3451570/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Thanks Virginia for continuing to provide these updates!

While much of the list appears to be basically maintaining existing inventory, on some of these items (unless Ukrainian losses have been much larger than previously expected, it would seem a net increase of certain assets (155 mm Howitzers, Bradley's, Strykers), not to mention tossing a bit more into the mine clearing and vehicle recovery department.

I'm thinking the increase in howitzers might be tied into the DPICM drop to increase capabilities along wider stretches of the front?

[NOVA Green]

Looking for Prigozhin's whereabout almost makes "Where Waldo?" seem easy, even if one assumes that he is not wearing one of multiple disguises posted by Russian authorities.

Now Mr. Lukashenko's officers are hosting tours for Western journalists of potential sites where Wagner forces might be housed.

Mr. Lukashenko said last week that Wagner might use an old Belarusian military base, but despite the speculation spurred by the new tents, it was not clear that he meant this one, in the village of Tsel’. He also said that Mr. Prigozhin was in Belarus, though there was no confirmation of that.

On Thursday, in a rare session with foreign journalists, Mr. Lukahsenko said Mr. Prigozhin was in Russia, a free man. On Friday, a Pentagon official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss military intelligence, said Mr. Prigozhin was believed to be in Moscow, with no apparent restrictions on his movements.

When it comes to Wagner’s murky future, Igor Ilyash, a journalist, said the “creation of a sense of uncertainty is beneficial to everyone: Lukashenko, Putin and Prigozhin.” Mr. Ilyash and his wife, Katsiaryna Andreyeva, published a book in 2020 about Belarus and the war in Ukraine, which includes a section on Wagner; it was banned in Belarus almost instantly and Ms. Andreyeva was arrested in November of that year while working as a T.V. journalist.

“For Putin, it is useful because it distracts the attention of Ukraine and NATO away from Russia and towards Belarus,’’ he said. For Lukashenko it is useful because it shows him as more than simply a vassal of Putin, Mr. Ilyash said, “at a time when many people already stopped considering him an independent actor.” And for Mr. Prigozhin it leaves open the possibility that Wagner is not being shut down.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/world/europe/belarus-wagner-base-lukashenko.html

[NOVA Green]

Again regardless of the moral questions involved when it comes to supplying Ukraine with "Cluster Bombs", Michael Kofman has a mini thread on why he thinks the "timing" played a role in the decision.

You might need to click on the Tweet to see the ~6 posts on his thread.


https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1677435175238524930?s=20

[NOVA Green]

In traditional Atlas Election Day Threads, Weather Forecast for Ukraine coming up...

https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1677315178529005568?s=20

[NOVA Green]

We haven't seen Woody Woodpecker around for awhile, let alone Bakhmut Bob, but Phil is on the skeptical side that UKR would actually fight street by street to retake Bakhmut.

There is much more and obviously a better way to "skin a cat" (Never quite understood that expression in popular vernacular from historical context, but still), as opposed to the mass street by street storming of Bakhmut by Wagners and regular Russians with an estimated 20k of theirs KIA/WIA.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1677389864042373141?s=20

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/matbabiak/status/1677756300803940352?s=12
Lol Crybar is cope mode is the best

This isn't necessarily all good yet.

I did post the weather forecast yesterday and it does appear that heavy rains are impeding Ukrainian breakthroughs, although it should be noted that this might make it harder for Russian reinforcements as well...

[NOVA Green]

ISW "Discussing with maps":

Note for best resolution you will likely want to open each map in a new browser window.

Stuff is still hot on the Bakhmut front, while tens of thousands of Russian soldiers tied down to defend a  place which in no way shape or form to be considered strategic, but rather symbolic at best.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1678222516513284098?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Now that elections in Turkey are over, looks like the "Grain Corridor" will be protected by Turkish Warships...

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1678106624441851908?s=20