Oregon Governor Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Do we know what the final EV total was in 2018?

No such thing as EV total in Oregon.

100% VbM state for a long time (First in the Country)

Also, Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) only kicked in at '18.

Now, the '20 GE allowed ballots postmarked on ED to be considered valid (COVID stuff).

Also, since '20 it is now free to mail in your ballot (no stamp required), so people don't need to worry about if they have stamps in their house, or how far away it is to drop their ballot off at the designated ballot drop site.

(Many PUBs like this as well, especially in more remote areas, where it might be a bit of a drive to the local ballot drop box, and rural postal mail routes might be considered a bit more sketchy in case somebody tries to steal your mail, but now you can track your ballot.)

In '21 OR GVT voted and now ballots in '22 are valid so long as posted on ED.

Maybe missing your question, and not trying to score points, but not quite sure exactly what your question is?

There is a decent chance we won't even know rough final OR TO levels until a couple days after election day, since basically OR has gone the route of CA and WA when it comes to mail ballots.

[NOVA Green]

I meant what was the final VBM total ("early vote") going into Election Day. Target Smart has these by voter registration:

2018: 1.86M (42.0% D, 30.3% R, 27.7% other)
2020: 2.38M (39.8% D, 28.8% R, 31.1% other)

Gotcha you...

The numbers I have from my 2020 Oregon tracking sheet based upon the 11/2/22 SoS AM votes received dump was:

*** Note- it could be that Target Smart got updated End of day numbers by directly contacting the County election offices? ***

TOTAL:   1,969,549
DEM:         836,045      (42.5% of TVs)       79.3% of DEM RVs     
PUB:          560,390      (28.4% of TVs)       73.7% of PUB RVs       
OTHER:      573,114      (29.1% of TVs)       50.5% of OTHER RVs

If we contrast the 2020 data by looking at the last vote dump before the election day weekend:

We see that Dems held a significantly larger Turnout lead than they do for the 2022 election:

TOTAL:   1,806,172
DEM:         785,234    (43.5% of TVs)       74.5% of DEM RVs     
PUB:          506,416      (28.0% of TVs)     66.6% of PUB RVs       
OTHER:      514,522     (28.5% of TVs)      45.3% of OTHER RVs

Granted, this is not totally insurmountable and it could simply be that without Trump on the ballot DEM inclined voters are simply holding out longer getting their ballots turned in, but still this is definitely something that I would be a bit concerned about if I were a Democratic strategist or campaign advisor.

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- I started working on this last night, but since unfortunately I need to manually tabulate % by party by county it's slightly more labor intensive than it should be.

Here is a map showing % of RV turnout by Party based upon the OR-SoS- 11/4/22 AM ballot return update.



A few brief observations:

1.) Republicans lead in almost every part of Oregon when it comes to the % of their registered voters who have already returned ballots

2.) The turnout differential is most pronounced in most of Eastern and Central Oregon.

The major exception in that part of the state is Deschutes County, which has been increasingly trending Democratic in the era of Trump, and perhaps significantly includes the city of Bend, which might be considered a positive side in the heavily competitive CD-05 election.

3.) Democrats continue to maintain a decent turnout lead along the Oregon Coast.

This includes both solidly Democratic counties (Lincoln, Clatsop), solidly Republican Coos County, and Lean Republican Tillamook & Curry counties.

Note these counties have a much higher % of older voters than most parts of the State.

4.) Overall there appears to be rough parity in Turnout in most of non-Coastal Southern Oregon, including in the critical "rump" of CD-04 (Douglas and Lane counties).

Turnout in Lane County is still lagging significantly across the board, which as a Democratic stronghold, might be an issue if this continues and especially if the OR-GOV election ends up being close as some polling has indicated.

5.) PUB Turnout leads in both Marion and Linn are notable, since the former is a crucial part of CD-06 with the City of Salem being a solid DEM stronghold, Keizer a moderate PUB base.

In Linn County a significant PUB TO differential could create issues in CD-05, since this is basically the solid base of PUB voters now with the 2022 redistricting lines.

6.) Yamhill and Polk county numbers are relatively close for both and as tilt PUB counties could be of minor benefit to PUB chances in CD-05.

7.) PDX 'Burbs---

Clackamas County numbers are close, and with DEMs have a county wide +6.5k voter registration lead do not yet indicate any major warning signs for DEMs.

Now, we don't know where the ballots are being returned from and since the county has a mixture of some heavily affluent PDX 'burbs and exurbs such as Lake Oswego, Happy Valley, Beavercreek, and West Linn, a decent chunk of rural, small town, and far outer exurban voters, this will likely be a critical county to watch on election night since really it is difficult to see a PUB GOV victory without taking Clackamas by decent margins.

Washington County turnout numbers are definitely an issue of concern for DEMs, since this county has moved over the past couple decades from being a swing county to a pivotal part of the DEM winning margins in OR, especially as many parts of small town and rural OR have move heavily Republican.

Again we don't know exactly where the votes are being returned from, so not much in the way of tea leaves when it comes to CD-06 since the Southeastern portions of the county include some fairly swingy upper-income 'burbs which have been moving DEM starting with Obama and more so with Trump as the PUB standard barer.

8.) Multnomah County---

This is a major issue for DEMs...

Although PUBs have become virtually an endangered species in recent years within the county, with a +230k net DEM voter registration advantage, you simply gotta do better than the current +61k net DEM TO numbers.

MultCo has always been critical to successful DEM statewide election margins, and in fact basically was the reason why Dukakis won OR in '88.

Now, it could be that voters in Multnomah County, and especially in the city of Portland are still weighing their choices in other elections, but really DEMs need to step up their GOTV game here considerably to put a final nail in the coffin of the OR-GOV race.

9.) The relatively low turnout to date of Non-affiliated-voters (NAVs) and 3rd party voters is significant and a potential wild card since OR has had automatic voter registration since '18 and in lower turnout elections the lack of certain NAVs that might be more predisposed towards one party or the other, could prove to be critical.

[NOVA Green]

https://mobile.twitter.com/horvick/status/1589332993373786112


This change in election law was complete BS in every way and frankly ballots that come in after Election Day should not be counted and that’s how it used to be in Oregon too

Why should ballots postmarked election day not be counted?

How is that any different from voters dropping it off at the designated ballot drop boxes in various states and counties?

Also, arguably California and Washington State have allowed ballots post-marked to be counted as well, so it makes it a bit less confusing for newer voters, especially transplants from fellow West Coast states.

Plus one could make an argument, that this actually also benefits Republican turnout as well, especially considering that many Republicans living in rural areas are much further distances from ballot drop boxes than in the cities of Oregon, which tend to generally be much more Democratic, with some exceptions such as Medford, Keizer, and some smaller to medium sized cities such as Lebanon, Dallas, etc...

One should note as well that now that ballots do not require a postage stamp it makes it more accessible to voters, (who rightly IMHO) believe that one should not have to pay for the right to vote.

Again notably this offers advantage to many Republican base voters as well, such as Seniors on fixed incomes, WWC voters with low incomes, etc...

Still, just because one might perceive this as benefiting one political base more than another (which quite frankly I still find a confusing argument), doesn't mean that it is good public policy to allow for  the voting process to be more accessible to larger pools of voters.

I will also note, that if we look at the dramatic increase in total Republican vote in OR between '16 and '20, it is entirely plausible that both the automatic voting registration (AVR) enacted for the '18 GE, combined with the easier access to voting, likely played a significant roll in both PUB PRES swings in Republican parts of OR, as well as significant increase in NET PUB votes as well.

Needless to say, this is likely part of the reason why the OR CD-04 numbers were much closer than many had predicted, since many of these "newer" voters basically went straight-ticket PUB.

[NOVA Green]

Okay--- time for the daily OR ballot update.

11/7/22 9:54 AM DROP

Significant increase in total % of votes received between the 11/4/22 and the 11/7/22 update.

The part that gets a bit confusing for those attempting to cover the OR daily ballot return numbers, is that some counties are still working through recovering the numbers from the previous workdays returns and don't meet the state SoS publishing deadlines to report all numbers, but instead you get the "carryover" numbers from the preceding reporting period in the following daily returns, but yet allocated to the date in which ballots were received from boxes or via US Mail batches.

Regardless, I might get to that part a little bit later on in a subsequent post this PM, but will simply start with doing my usual drill of running the topline numbers from the official OR-SoS AM data dump after having posted the previous working-days official SoS reporting numbers:

11/04/22 UPDATE

DEM: 357,866 Returned     (+45,786 DVs Day-On-Day)
DEM: 1,020,961 Registered
DEM TO %: 35.1% TOTAL TO to date (+4.5% Day-On-Day)

PUB: 292,391 Returned   (+39,884 RVs Day-On-Day)
PUB: 736,671 Registered
PUB TO %: 39.7% TO to date  (+5.4% Day-On-Day)

OTHERS: 219,118 Returned    (+32,194 RVs Day-On-Day)
OTHERS: 1,236,032 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 17.7% TO to date  (+2.6% Day-On-Day)

11/07/22 UPDATE

TOTAL VOTES RETURNED TO DATE= 1,080,052 (36.0% of RVs)   
+210,677 (11/4 > 11/7) (+7.0% increase of Total RVs).

DEM: 446,224 Returned     (+88,378 DVs Day-On-Day)
DEM: 1,020,328 Registered
DEM TO %: 43.7% TOTAL TO to date (+8.6% Day-On-Day)

PUB: 355,525 Returned   (+63,134 RVs Day-On-Day)
PUB: 736,818 Registered
PUB TO %: 48.3% TO to date  (+8.6% Day-On-Day)

OTHERS: 278,283 Returned    (+59,165 RVs Day-On-Day)   
OTHERS: 1,239,498 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 22.5% TO to date  (+4.8% Day-On-Day)

Thinking about following up with another post shortly, since after all it is "Election Eve", which typically only happens in most places every two years in the US for GE, with the exception of more unusual things like special elections, off-cycle GOV elections in certain states such as VA & NJ, etc...

[NOVA Green]

Looking like quite possibly, the OR-DEM stronghold of MultCo is coming through with a last minute surge...

WashCo also looking decent.

Deschutes numbers are a bit through the roof, making me wonder if Jamie will get a bit of a "home town boost" from Bend area in her new district.

ClackCo numbers look a bit low???

Marion County numbers are interesting, especially since vast majority of voters are in Metro Salem in CD-06, plus one of the highest % of Latino voters by county in Oregon???

To be continued...

[NOVA Green]

So... elections in Oregon have entered a brand and brave new world starting in '15 and continuing into '22 where we now have:

1.) VBM passed overwhelmingly in GE '98

2.) AVR (Automatic Voter Registration) passed into law 3/15 by Governor Kate Brown

3.) Expansions of voting rights in '22 when it came to: 

       A.) Free postage for "Mail-In-Ballots"

       B.) Ballots postmarked Election Day by the USPS are "Same Day Ballots" (Deleted a brief rant regarding FL '00 US-PRES GE), just like they should be for US Military Service Members overseas...

4.) Honestly I have no fracking idea what TO in OR will be once all of the ballots have been counted in the GE '22 election.

5.) Personally, I suspect that overall DEM RV leads will most likely overcome significantly higher PUB RV EV TO than we have seen in OR-GE *at this point* in the election cycles (Obviously same-day ballots could be a thing) for quite some years.

6.) There is definitely a reason why Oregon is so much in the headlights these days for elections, and it is not entirely Timber Unity related.

Maybe a few more thoughts to come tonight on this topic.

[NOVA Green]

Thought it might be interesting to look at the top ten counties in OR by POP and voter ballots received as of earlier today...

Food for thought, and haven't really made up my mind about what that means exactly yet, although certainly Deschutes County stands out pretty dramatically, especially with the overwhelming % of DEM voters there are in CD-05 and not CD-02.

Jackson County TO numbers are also interesting, especially since there aren't any competitive elections on the ballot, and plus POP isn't as old as elsewhere, and certainly not Up North in Douglas.

Still confused a bit as to why Metro PDX reporting numbers are running so slow, but obviously there is easily potentially 300k+ DEM voting ballots yet to be returned from MultCo and WashCo alone in a couple counties where it is doubtful that Johnson will be able to perform well in come Election Day.

[NOVA Green]

Here are the updated numbers from the OR SoS Daily Ballot Return posted 10:31 AM today.

As usual with open with the preceding days numbers:

11/07/22 UPDATE

TOTAL VOTES RETURNED TO DATE= 1,080,052 (36.0% of RVs)   
+210,677 (11/4 > 11/7) (+7.0% increase of Total RVs).

DEM: 446,224 Returned     (+88,378 DVs Day-On-Day)
DEM: 1,020,328 Registered
DEM TO %: 43.7% TOTAL TO to date (+8.6% Day-On-Day)

PUB: 355,525 Returned   (+63,134 RVs Day-On-Day)
PUB: 736,818 Registered
PUB TO %: 48.3% TO to date  (+8.6% Day-On-Day)

OTHERS: 278,283 Returned    (+59,165 RVs Day-On-Day)   
OTHERS: 1,239,498 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 22.5% TO to date  (+4.8% Day-On-Day)

11/08/22 UPDATE

TOTAL VOTES RETURNED TO DATE= 1,080,052 (46.4% of RVs)   
+309.878 (11/7-11/8) (+10.4% increase of Total RVs).

DEM: 573,627 Returned     (+127,403 DVs Day-On-Day)     
DEM: 1,020,636 Registered
DEM TO %: 56.2% TOTAL TO to date (+12.5% Day-On-Day)

PUB: 440,920 Returned   (+89,395 RVs Day-On-Day)     440,920
PUB: 737,126 Registered
PUB TO %: 60.4% TO to date  (+12.1% Day-On-Day)

OTHERS: 371,383 Returned    (+93,100 RVs Day-On-Day)   
OTHERS: 1,239,716 Registered
OTHERS TO %: 30.0% TO to date  (+7.5% Day-On-Day)

[NOVA Green]

Updated Turnout map by party for largest counties in Oregon, plus a few others in critical CD races.

[NOVA Green]

Very curious how Kotek did in OR-04, 05, and 06

So still data mining OR-2022-GE precinct results.

Good news is that I believe we now do have final precinct results for all of the "split counties".

Still, a bit more difficult in some of the larger counties split between CD's to yet calculate numbers easily after the 2022 redistricting.

Main reason being there are tons more precincts, and manual tabulation starts to become more problematic when running off of official county level PDF reports.

I do have a work subscription to a Adobe Pro, so might try to "automate the conversion", once the factory reopens after the New Year.

Still, was at least able to calculate at least the CD-04 numbers without being excessively labor-intensive.

OR-CD-04-22

DEM-   171,372   (50.5%)       +7.4% D
PUB-    146,055   (43.1%)
TOT-    339,077 

OR-SEN-22

DEM-   187,932   (55.3%)       +22.9% D
PUB-    140,995  (32.4%)
TOT-    339,789

OR-GOV-22

DEM-                159,835  (45.6%)       +2.1% D
PUB-                152,685   (43.5%)
IND (Betsy)-      27,507    (7.8%)
TOT-                 350,704

Bonus points could always run the numbers for guns, shrooms, and free affordable health care ballot initiatives ...

[NOVA Green]

Okay... still working on "cracking" a few more of the bigger counties split between CD's, especially within context of OR redistricting which rearranged a ton of precinct lines.

Still, here are the numbers for CD-01:

Thought this might be an interesting one, especially since there were chunks of the district which used to be in Betsy Johnson's old stomping grounds.

Plus Phil Knight was one of the earliest and biggest boosters, where many of the employees and contractors who work at the Nike facility actually live and are voters in CD-01.

I will not excessively pontificate yet on findings regarding the 2022 OR-GOV election and the impact of Betsy Johnson, but it does appear that in most places in Oregon, there were significantly more folks who voted DEM for other elections, but chose Betsy as their candidate for GOV.

Meanwhile, we don't necessarily see a couple % increase for Drazen versus US-SEN or US-REP in many places, but still strongly suspect without Johnson in the race many voters would have put the clothespin to their nose and voted Kotek over Drazen.

Should also be remembered that in "Silicon Forest", DEM pols have long been considered strong supporters of the Tech sector, including OR-DEM-GOVs, so regardless of WashCo voters opinions of "what is going on in Portland", which both Betsy and Drazen tried to use to peel away PDX suburban voters, doesn't appear to have played as well as their "consultants" thought it might have.

OR-CD-01-22

DEM-   210,682  (67.9%)       +36.0% D
PUB-     99,042   (31.9%)
TOT-    310,243

OR-SEN-22

DEM-   209,714  (66.4%)       +36.5% D
PUB-     94,413  (29.9%)
TOT-    315,650

OR-GOV-22

DEM-                183,723  (57.6%)       +26.2% D
PUB-                100,184   (31.4%)
IND (Betsy)-      33,731   (10.6%)
TOT-                 319,127

[NOVA Green]

Interesting one, since after all got a bit Gerrymandered as a PUB "Vote Sink" for the new CD-02, but still we can also observe US-SEN and OR-GOV results...

Key number to watch are the US-SEN numbers, despite Bend having got shifted into CD-05 with redistricting, and significantly lower REG DEM TO vs REG PUB TO compared and contrasted with the '20 GE and the '18 Midterm GE.

Jackson County numbers were bad for DEM's in '22 but Wyden only lost by ~ 5k, while meanwhile Drazen wins by ~ (14-15k) with Johnson hitting ~ 7k votes.

Needless to say, take a look at Josephine County, which doesn't have the student population like Jackson.

Wyden did something like 4k votes ahead of Kotek, while meanwhile Drazen did roughly 2.5k votes ahead of the Q OR-SEN pub candidate.

Regardless, this pattern replicates itself in virtually every county in the district from the "Grain Belt" of the North to the "Cow Country" of the Southeast.


OR-CD-02-22

DEM-    99,882   (32,4%)       +35.1% R
PUB-    208,369  (67.5%)
TOT-     308,676

OR-SEN-22

DEM-   120,299 (37.5%)       +22.4% R
PUB-    192,094 (59.9%)
TOT-    320,849

OR-GOV-22

DEM-                 89,608   (27.6%)       +35.7% R
PUB-                 205,335  (63.3%)
IND (Betsy)-      25,435   (7.8%)
TOT-                 324,370

[NOVA Green]

Interesting! So I'm gonna assume Kotek definitely lost OR-05 and OR-06 then, if she was only +2 in OR-04

Just finished crunching the numbers for all OR-CD's now that I have finally "cracked ClackCo numbers", following a little of work transferring Marion County numbers into an Excel based format...

Looking at cleaning up the numbers into more of an Excel Table style format, and migrating the data over to another thread...

Here you go Altas Nation...

OR-CD-03- 2022

DEM-    212,919   (70.2%)       +43.9% D
PUB-      79,766   (26.3%)
TOT-     303,334

OR-SEN-22

DEM-   220,775 (70.8%)       +45.4% D
PUB-     79,293  (25.4%)
TOT-    311,835

OR-GOV-22
DEM-                 201,727 (64.1%)       +36.2% D
PUB-                   87,644 (27.9%)
IND (Betsy)-        23,358  (7.4%)
TOT-                  314,678

OR-CD-05- 2022

DEM-    171,514   (48.8%)       +2.1% R
PUB-     178,813   (50.9%)
TOT-     351,233

OR-SEN-22

DEM-    177,252 (52.3%)       +7.7% D
PUB-     151,103 (44.6%)
TOT-     338,607

OR-GOV-22

DEM-                 146,649  (42.7%)       +4.7% R
PUB-                  162,810  (47.4%)
IND (Betsy)-        20,923   (6.1%)
TOT-                   343,353

Time to hit OR CD-06 Compare and Contrast numbers from 2022...

OR-CD-06- 2022

DEM-    147,156  (50.0%)       +2.7% D
PUB-     139,146  (47.3%)
TOT-     294,377

OR-SEN-22

DEM-    160,452 (53.2%)       +9.7% D
PUB-     131,093 (43.5%)
TOT-     301,401

OR-GOV-22

DEM-                 136,232  (44.3%)       +1.8% R
PUB-                  141,689  (46.1%)
IND (Betsy)-        27,084   (8.8%)
TOT-                   307,598

[NOVA Green]

Interesting (At least to me) that Drazen got less support than the House GOP candidates in OR-5 and OR-6, yet did better than the OR-3 candidate

Good observation...

So I did go in this morning to take a look at the Clackamas County numbers, which is split into three different Congressional Districts and believe some of the differential you observed can perhaps be somewhat explained by the presence of (11) split precincts where part of the voters are in CD-03 and others in CD-05.

Since it was easier to calculate by doing the subtotals of the CD's with fewer precincts (CD-03 and CD-06) and then subtracting from the County totals to get the CD-05 numbers for OR-GOV and OR-SEN these numbers were inadvertently lumped into the CD-03 numbers.

Naturally this creates a problem in getting a fully accurate count by CD...

I could try to go in and "weigh" by % of ballots cast in each of these precincts for the Congressional races, however that has its own issues since overall turnout was likely lower in the safe CD-03 versus the competitive CD-05.

I could just split out the "problem precincts" into their own bucket with a separate tabulation for each race.

Now regarding CD-06, what I suspect,  without taking a deeper dive yet into the numbers, is that it is most likely statistical noise with an increase 13k votes for the GOV race over the CD race, combined with Johnson probably drawing some voters from Erickson (CD-06-PUB).

Should also be noted that Salinas significantly outperformed Kotek within the Marion County portion of the district and Drazen only captured 49.4% within Marion County with Erickson nabbing 50.8%.

[NOVA Green]

For anybody with an Oregonlive subscription you should be able to pull this up for free...

If not and interested, maybe do a trial sub to view the article???

Basically, the actual graphic shows OR-GOV precinct results from everywhere within Metro-PDX.

Here are a few quotes from the text side of the article:

Kotek’s crowning electoral achievements in the November election came in the Kerns and King neighborhoods on Portland’s inner east side, where she crushed Drazan by 90% to 5%. That’s a bigger margin than even Kotek’s home turf of Kenton, where she secured about 84% of the vote after serving 15 years as a state representative or House speaker.

Still, there were many neighborhoods where Drazan narrowly edged or even trounced the Democrat, including in her home base of Clackamas County, which she won.

In precinct 101 in Clackamas’s Happy Valley neighborhood, for instance, Drazan’s margin of victory was 48% to 44%. In precinct 424 in the Sherwood Tualatin area of Washington County, Drazan bested Kotek 47% to 43%.

There were neighborhoods in Multnomah County, too, where Drazan prevailed, primarily some of the precincts west of Gresham.

https://www.oregonlive.com/data/2023/01/tina-kotek-is-oregons-new-governor-see-which-candidate-your-neighbors-wanted-in-office.html