Afghan government collapse.

[NOVA Green]

Massoud Update:

Apparently he is now reaching out to France for military support in Panjshir:

America may have abandoned Afghanistan, but the most prominent anti-Taliban rebel in the country is pinning his hopes on support from France.

For Ahmad Massoud, France is the most natural place to turn as he tries to marshal a resistance army in the Panjshir Valley north of Kabul. After all, his father, Ahmad Shah Massoud, the “Lion of the Panjshir” is close to a household name in France and lives on (after his assassination in 2001) as the country’s epitome of a freedom fighter thanks to his battles against the Soviets and Taliban in the 1980s and 1990s.

In op-eds published in the French press, the 32-year-old Massoud has appealed to Paris as his main hope. His intermediary with the top echelons of power is the philosopher, public intellectual and journalist Bernard-Henri Lévy, who traveled to the Panjshir Valley to write a story on him in the magazine Paris Match last October.


....

For now, however, the French government is declining to comment publicly on whether it will respond to Massoud’s carefully tailored appeals. Much will depend on whether the Taliban respond to pressure, particularly from Iran, to form a pluralistic government with other ethnic and religious groups like Panjshiri Tajiks and Shiite Hazaras, who are more likely to oppose the Taliban, or whether the country slides back into all-out civil war.

....

And it’s not as if Massoud does not have access to the very top. At the Elysée in March, he discussed “advancing Afghanistan-France relations” with Macron and stood with the French president for an official photo, in which the two held a framed drawing of Massoud’s father.

....

When contacted by POLITICO about what support France was willing to give, government institutions in Paris were evasive. A spokesperson for the Elysée confirmed only that “France is in contact with [Massoud] since he visited Paris.” The foreign ministry ducked the question and said that its priority was the “evacuation of nationals” and the “protection of Afghans.”

A spokesperson for Massoud also did not respond to a question on French support.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ahmad-massoud-big-hope-france-anti-taliban-rebel-afghanistan/


Meanwhile other reports are circulating that negotiations with between Massoud and the Taliban are continuing via 3rd Party Channels:

The Taliban gave Massoud four hours Sunday to surrender the Panjshir Valley, saying they were deploying forces “after local state officials refused to hand it over peacefully.” Ahmad Massoud has been holding negotiations with the Taliban since the Islamist movement seized power in Kabul a week ago, but one of his advisers told VOA that the talks were stalled and appeared unlikely to advance. 
 
“There has been no progress,” Ali Nazari, Massoud’s spokesman said. The talks have mainly been conducted in Pakistan via emissaries, including Ahmad Massoud’s uncle. The Taliban said it will establish a centralized government and will not be holding elections. To end his nascent resistance, Massoud is demanding elections, decentralization of government, with regions and provinces allowed semi-autonomy, and for the Taliban to guarantee civil rights.

https://www.voanews.com/us-afghanistan-troop-withdrawal/taliban-targets-panjshir-valley-resistance-leaders-remain-defiant

Also reports of scattered clashes in the area close to the Southern entrance of the Panjshir Valley, Massoud reportedly has just returned from Tajikistan as well as possible Tajik Military support for the Panjshiris (Unconfirmed and possibly sketchy since from a Russian News source).

[NOVA Green]

With so much of the US and European Media focusing on the airport evacuations from Kabul, there are various other stories which have not received much attention.

As I posted several days ago Karzai was involved with conversations with the Taliban about a future Government.

This report from earlier today from The New York Times helps possibly shed some light on what might have been going on behind the scenes:

Forced to leave his home, former President Hamid Karzai remains in Kabul despite the risks.

Last week, former President Hamid Karzai stood outside his home in Kabul to record a video message, surrounded by his daughters, and said that he would stay in the Afghan capital with his family to try to coordinate with the Taliban for a peaceful transition.

But even as he has tried to position himself as a mediator at this crucial moment, his ability to play that role is tenuous. By the time Mr. Karzai appeared in a second video — recorded in the garden of the former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah — he appeared less confident and his speech was stilted. Mr. Abdullah stood beside him in silence.

Mr. Karzai found refuge with Mr. Abdullah, two Afghan officials said on Monday, after the Taliban disarmed his guards and took over security of his compound several days ago.

....

Saad Mohseni, the director general of MOBY Media Group, which owns the independent news channel Tolo TV, said that he had been in touch with Mr. Karzai and Mr. Abdullah and that his impression was that the meetings between the Taliban and the former leaders were little more than show.

...

“We are very worried,” Mr. Hyatt said, noting that he had learned the circumstances of the takeover of Mr. Karzai’s home from people still in Kabul. An aide to Mr. Abdullah reached by telephone said that he was not available to speak to the news media.

...

[NOVA Green]

There are various reports floating around that The Taliban might have possibly acquired MANPADS from former ANA stockpiles.

This is not yet verified, so take it with a healthy shake of salt or two....

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The Taliban* got a huge amount of weapons after taking over Afghanistan, including more than a hundred man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), and this poses a threat, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday.

"The first and main threat is that the Taliban got a huge amount of weapons. A huge one," he told reporters.

Shoigu noted that it included hundreds of armored vehicles, airplanes and helicopters.

"I'll tell you that there are more than a hundred MANPADS alone," the minister said.

"Nobody controls and cannot control it," he added.

https://sputniknews.com/world/202108241083702895-taliban-got-huge-amount-of-weapons-including-over-100-manpads-russian-defense-minister/

New Kabul Scare: Terror Groups and Anti-Aircraft Missiles
No one knows the number of MANPADS left behind in Kabul, if any. But the DoD-linked RAND Corp estimated 4,500 last year.

The Taliban, its Al-Qaeda ally, and the renegade ISIS-K terror group may have inherited hundreds of deadly shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles from the fallen Afghan government’s weapons depots, experts tell SpyTalk.

The exact number of missiles and their origin, kind, age and viability are hard to come by. A 2019 report by the RAND Corp. think tank put the total at an alarming 4,50O, but experts consulted by SpyTalk called that figure unreliable. That number almost certainly represents the number of MANPADS—Man Portable Air Defense Systems—acquired by successive Kabul regimes going back decades, they say. It’s highly unlikely, the experts say, that Washington supplied any to Kabul. Any left today is likely a fraction of those acquired by the Taliban regime overthrown by the U.S. in 2001, or its predecessors. The truth is that nobody seems to know the disposition of the missiles.

Still, even the possibility of a fraction of MANPADS in the hands of the Taliban, Al-Qaeda or ISIS-K, an Islamic State faction active in Afghanistan has alarmed officials and pilots.

“Military planes have been executing corkscrew landings, and other aircraft have fired flares upon takeoff — both measures used to avoid missile attacks,” the Associated Press reported Monday.

....

Some experts doubt there were any workable MANPADS left in Kabul in the weeks and months after U.S. forces invaded Afghanistan in 2001.

“I was under the impression we cleared out all [the MANPADS] after we toppled the Taliban government in 2001,” said a former Green Beret officer who led one of the teams into Afghanistan in October 2001. “I remember the reports of all the MANPADs being inoperative as they collected them, due to age and poor maintenance.” U.S. special forces troops took care to render inoperative the MANPADs they did discover, he and another expert told SpyTalk.

“I am very skeptical of the existence of any MANPAD stockpiles” at present, the former Green Beret added on condition of anonymity to discuss such a sensitive issue. “Those would have been blown up first during this drawdown. And I don’t believe [U.S.-backed Afghan governments over the past 20 years] “had an independent procurement system that would have allowed this.” He said he “wouldn’t assume there are zero” MANPADS, “but I have no idea where RAND got its numbers.”

https://www.spytalk.co/p/new-kabul-scare-terror-groups-and

[NOVA Green]

One item to note, is that even outside of the current clashes being reported on the outskirts of Panjshir Province, as well as possibly some still contested terrain in Baghlan Province (Andarab District), there are some other areas in Afghanistan some clashes have been alleged.

Not going to link to the source of the report yet, since I don't want to accidentally spread misinformation from various foreign intelligence agencies which might be trying to spin events, but IF the Hazara Militias are fighting with Taliban forces, this obviously opens up another front for the Taliban.

MAIDAN-WARDAK PROVINCE:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markazi_Bihsud_District

Early and unverified reports are trickling in of clashes breaking out in Behsud District between Taliban and Anti-Taliban Militias starting Yesterday, but no claims of the District been taken or seriously contested at this point.

Commander Abdul Ghani Alipur is an Ethnic Hazara from Miadan-Wardak Province Afghanistan in Central Eastern Afghanistan, and historically a bit of a reputation as a local Warlord over the years with an "interesting" background, whose forces were allegedly involved in these clashes, who was reported as recently as March as having some 2,000 fighters and has clashed with both Taliban and ANA forces in recent years.

Going to post some various links below for background history but not quote all of them....

Who is Alipoor, aka Commander Shamshir?

Alipoor has not provided figures on his militia, but one of his fighters said that he has at least 2,000 armed men.

Who is Abdul Ghani Alipoor--also known as Commander Shamshir--and why has he established an illegal armed group in his province? Where did the rift between his militia and government forces begin?

Alipoor is a commander in Behsud district of Maidan Wardak province, whose armed men--according to the Defense Ministry--shot down a government security forces helicopter around midnight on Thursday.

In a recent interview with local media outlets, Alipoor said that he is a commander of the Hizb-e-Wahdat-e-Islami Afghanistan (the Islamic Unity Party of Afghanistan) faction of Abdul Ali Mazari; however, in 2004, when the government started the disarmament process, he handed over his weapons to the government and started working as a driver on the Kabul-Behsud route. 

He said that after the attack of Kochis on people’s houses in Behsud district, and following the killing of people by the Taliban in 2014, he established a resistance group in Behsud, but reportedly the activities of “Commander Shamshir” have expanded to Ghor, Daikundi, Ghazni, Uruzgan, Sar-e-Pul and Bamiyan province.

From an Afghani Private Media outlet in March 2021

https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-170870

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/27/afghan-militia-commander-freed-after-several-killed-in-protests

Attacked and Vulnerable, Some Afghans Are Forming Their Own Armies
With U.S. troops leaving, the Taliban advancing, and a steady collapse of security force bases and outposts, the Hazara and other ethnic groups in Afghanistan are raising militias.

....

As U.S. and NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan, and talks falter between the Taliban and the American-backed government, ethnic groups across the country have formed militias or say they plan to arm themselves. The rush to raise fighters and weapons evokes the mujahedeen wars of the early 1990s, when rival militias killed thousands of civilians and left sections of Kabul in ruins.

A concerted and determined militia movement, even if nominally aligned with Afghan security forces, could fracture the unsteady government of President Ashraf Ghani and once again divide the country into fiefs ruled by warlords. Yet these makeshift armies may eventually serve as the last line of defense as security force bases and outposts steadily collapse in the face of a fierce onslaught of attacks by the Taliban.

Since the U.S. troop withdrawal was announced in April, regional strongmen have posted videos on social media showing armed men hoisting assault rifles and vowing to fight the Taliban. Some militia leaders fear the flagging peace talks in Doha, Qatar, will collapse after foreign troops depart and the Taliban will intensify an all-out assault to capture provincial capitals and lay siege to Kabul.

....

The most prominent Hazara militia commander is Abdul Ghani Alipur, whose militiamen in Wardak Province, a mountainous area that borders Kabul, have clashed with government forces. Mr. Alipur had been implicated in the shooting down of a military helicopter in March. In an interview, he denied any involvement, although an aide said at the time that Mr. Alipur’s militiamen had shot at the aircraft.

“If we don’t stand up and defend ourselves, history will repeat itself and we will be massacred like during the time of Abdul Rahman Khan,” Mr. Alipur said, referring to the Pashtun “Iron Emir” who ruled in the late 19th century, massacring and enslaving Hazaras. Afghan folklore says he displayed towers built from severed Hazara heads.

“They forced us to pick up guns,” Mr. Alipur said of the government, which has failed to protect Hazaras. “We must carry guns to protect ourselves.”
....

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/world/asia/vulnerable-afghans-forming-militias.html

‘People Will Defend Themselves to Their Last Drop of Blood’: Is the U.S. Leaving Afghanistan on the Brink of Civil War?

As President Joe Biden withdraws U.S. troops nearly 20 years after the U.S.-led invasion, Afghanistan faces instability on a number of fronts: The Taliban is resurgent; fears of civil war are rising; and a new threat is emerging — Iran’s growing influence.

Those are some of the key takeaways from Leaving Afghanistan, a special FRONTLINE report premiering Tuesday, July 20 from acclaimed Afghan journalist Najibullah Quraishi, who has covered the war between the Taliban and the American-led coalition since the beginning.

...

Quraishi uncovers claims that an Iranian-backed Afghan militia, the Fatemiyoun Brigade — drawn from Shia Afghan refugees in Iran, and also from members of the Hazara Shia minority living in Afghanistan — that has fought in Syria is now operating on the ground inside Afghanistan. Some say the Fatemiyoun is even present within the country’s government and military. Iran’s foreign minister said Iran had supported Afghan fighters in Syria but that they are not active in Afghanistan now.

....

n response, Quraishi reports that some of the Hazaras — like other ethnic groups — are forming militias, hoping to protect their communities from the advancing Taliban. One senior commander, Abdul Ghani Alipur, claims to have thousands of fighters at his command.

The Hazaras’ mobilization has also brought them into conflict with the Afghan army. Earlier this year, as Hazaras demonstrated in the town of Beshud, government troops opened fire on the crowd, killing 11 people.

Quraishi spoke with a mourner at a funeral for Hazaras killed in Beshud.

“People will defend themselves. Too much has happened,” the man says. “People will defend themselves to their last drop of blood.”

....

Frontline PBS article from July 2021

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/us-withdraws-afghanistan-hazara-status-civil-war/

https://afghanistan.asia-news.com/en_GB/articles/cnmi_st/features/2021/02/09/feature-02

Here is a link to the transcript of the interview he had with TOLO TV in Feb 2021:

https://hazaraworld.com/interview-with-the-lion-of-hazaristan-general-alipur/

[NOVA Green]

Really solid article from an extremely knowledgeable individual from a few days back, who I am following on Twitter because of the overall quality of his data.

Despite the .IN link, unlike the overwhelming majority of information (or disinformation) coming out of India in recent weeks he doesn't fall into the trap of misrepresenting data, despite the fact that he is not a big fan of the Taliban he still actively follows and monitors their media to help decipher the "big picture", while simultaneously being able to drill down into the "micro picture" and nuances as events unfold in real time.

No paywall required....

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/news-analysis/story/afghanistan-afghan-taliban-cia-nato-us-withdrawal-india-pakistan-china-1843785-2021-08-21?__twitter_impression=true

[NOVA Green]

Afghanistan: Military Updates- 8/25/21

Not too many reports coming out today of clashes between various different Afghan Armed Political-Military Formations.

1.) Diplomatic negotiations are continuing between Panjshiri Tribal Elders and TB representatives (Haqqani Network).

According to the Taliban, the Tribal Elders expressed "disgust" with Saleh.

Jamiat-e Islami confirmed that a twelve person group had met with the TB and that "talks were ongoing".

This meeting took place in the City of Charikar, in Parwan province where there were reported clashes last week between Anti-Taliban elements and Taliban forces.

Note that Parwan Province is plurality Tajiks and geographically located South of Baghlam Province, West of Panjshir Province, and East of Kabul, so has significant strategic and military import.

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1430634350610092038?s=20

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1430582387235229702?s=20

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1430583097226141706?s=20

2.) Haven't seen any confirmed information regarding the alleged reported clashes between the Taliban and Hazara Alipoor militia in Wardak province.

Could well be it occurred, but relatively small scale and being handled locally through negotiations.

The Hazaara Militias will have a rough time sustaining long term struggle against the Taliban, without some degree of weaponry sneaking over the border with Iran.

Iran also has various local Hazara Shii'te, clerics, such as Eisa Hosseini Mazari, supporting the Taliban Government.

https://twitter.com/SAMRIReports/status/1430458495657201669?s=20

Meanwhile, just a couple days ago, Iran reopened it's borders with Afghanistan to allow refined petroleum to ship into the Country for the first time since a massive explosion a year ago took out some 550 oil tanker trucks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-23/taliban-regime-seek-hike-in-iran-fuel-imports-as-prices-jump

Also, I would imagine that the Taliban success (thus far) in preventing a major spectacular terrorist event against Afghani Sh'iites since assuming power (Perhaps most visible in the significant protection their forces provided during Ashura Festivities, has also potentially muted the potential for a significant Hazara uprising at this time.

[NOVA Green]

ISIS-K official claimed responsibility for the attack at the Airport and released a photo of the Jahadi militant along with his name about an hour ago.

Apparently they only claimed credit for one PBIED (Person Bourne Improvised Explosive Device) and not two, which is a bit odd.

Also reports of additional explosions in Kabul (the last two an hour or so back) for a total of seven different explosions thus far today.

Taliban are claiming these are US forces destroying their equipment.

Also reports of gunfire in Western Kabul until about 1 1/2 hours ago.

[NOVA Green]

ISIS would probably love nothing more than to have an attack on the airport that the Taliban gets blamed for.

I guess too much subtlety for ISIS to try to pin the blame on someone else.

They’d like their enemies fighting, but theyve always preferred self-promotion. IS needs attacks like these to win legitimacy among potential Taliban defectors, and the ideal outcome for them would be getting the blame for the attack but triggering animosity between the US and the Taliban anyway.

Reports are that ISIS-K has been attempting to garner recruits from elsewhere to come to Afghanistan vs alternative places such as Syria or Iraq.

Would not be surprised if their "spectacular" attack today could well enhance recruits from elsewhere to fight against the "False Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan".

Meanwhile the US has never surrendered the rights to conduct air strikes against "terrorist targets" in Afghanistan, regardless of the Trump surrender at Doha.

Obviously the first time a US Air strike kills women and kids at a wedding targeting terrorist formations, could well cause a massive regional backlash, even if the Intel was considered good.

Also, tensions appear to be arising slightly between Pakistan and the Taliban vs the TPP leaders and fighters recently freed from prisons in Afghanistan.

Situation still pretty fluid, but reality is that the Taliban are "The State" and the entire International Community, as well as various neighbors will likely expect "Taliban 2.0" to tow the line or else....

[NOVA Green]

Jeff has gone apes**t crazy on Twitter regarding tons of Tweets over the past years since at least 2019 regarding the conflict between The Taliban and ISIS-K.

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff

IDK--- might be hitting the point with a massive blunt anvil.... personally would prefer to read a (60) page academic article vs tons of Tweets & Videos, but still I guess for the ADD Millennial Gen, might be more interesting than any quotes from academic articles I could post after a two hour reading session, only accentuating highlights....

Meanwhile prior to the Terrorist Daesh attack at the airport, a Senior Taliban Commander was assassinated in Khost Province, assailants unknown:

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1430825239328477192?s=20

There are other things going on in Afghanistan, with apparently temporary breakdowns in negotiations between the Panjshiri's and the Taliban, but obviously today's news has tended to cloud over various items going on between the lone "Rebel Province" (Asterix & Obelisk style) as well as various international items involving Taliban appointments to GVT positions, China, Russia, & Iran, etc....

[NOVA Green]

Sigh.... now that most Americans and the International Community are first learning about ISIS-K, we are being asked to use a shorter acronym ISKP to refer to the Daesh.   

Whatever... meanwhile we some reports that the Taliban are conducting house-to-house searches in Kabul to round up ISKP members.

https://twitter.com/MuradGazdiev/status/1431311728206299138?s=20

Also, reports that the Taliban is requesting the US maintain a diplomatic mission in Afghanistan post 8/31/21:

The Taliban has asked the United States to keep a diplomatic presence in Afghanistan beyond the Aug. 31 withdrawal of U.S. military forces, an option the Biden administration is “actively discussing,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said Friday.

The request comes as the Taliban seeks international recognition following its rapid takeover of the country and grapples with a dire economic landscape after billions of dollars of international aid to Afghanistan was frozen.

In considering retaining a diplomatic presence, Price said the safety and security of U.S. personnel in that mission would be “first and foremost on our minds,” particularly after Thursday’s deadly suicide bombing.

President Biden has said the United States will help Afghan allies seeking to leave the country even after U.S. troops leave, an effort that could be easier if it retains a diplomatic mission....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/27/afghanistan-kabul-taliban-live-updates/#link-KFQMWZKFSNH4DBBMK2VAJMAZF4

Also, extremely heavy TB "elite" presence in areas around the airport, using US Military gear, courtesy of the ANA...

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1431215542958968842?s=20

Meanwhile in Nangarhar Province (One of the few ISKP remaining areas of significant activity):

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1431191393800753152?s=20

I won't even post all of the old footage from 2018 of ANA units evacuating ISKP members in Zawjzan Province, but suffice it to say that the Taliban have long and historical "beef" with the ISKP, which if anything will likely accelerate as various foreign "Jihadis" shift to Afghanistan vs elsewhere in the Taliban 2.0 GVT.

I believe that although we all have legitimate reasons to be extremely skeptical and cautious regarding the Taliban, considering their previous history when it comes to all types of atrocious and egregious human rights violations, that the Taliban are legit when it comes to fighting against ISKP and similar allied and aligned elements, as they attempt to claw their way back into at least a veneer of domestic and international respectability almost 20 years since 9/11/01, not to mention since they first achieved de facto control of the country way back in 1996.

Sure... it could seem like a bad spin off the classic movie Casablanca when it comes to "Round up the Usual Suspects", with names provided by US SIGINT sources, various other Intelligence agencies etc, possibly some local TB Intel, but at this point it does appear that the Taliban are seriously trying to address the ISKP movement, which is apparently not only trying to poke an eye and establish legitimacy for killing Americans, but also effectively declaring war against the Taliban regime itself...

Towards the end of the movie set during French Vichy (But NAZI controlled North Africa), a classic scene (Couldn't find a short clip from the start of the movie where "round up the usual suspects" line was first used), is still a relevant part of Americana regardless of age & generations....

[NOVA Green]

*** Breaking NEWS ***

US has conducted unmanned airstrikes against ISKP in Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan.

https://twitter.com/elizondogabriel/status/1431430974626271232?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Sigh.... now that most Americans and the International Community are first learning about ISIS-K, we are being asked to use a shorter acronym ISKP to refer to the Daesh.   

It was kind of silly to act like they have anything to do with Iraq or Syria in the first place. ISK makes more sense.

Yes and no...

ISIS has been a legit contender among hardline International Jihadis going way back to the Iraq / Syria war, where AQI basically got destroyed as US & Allied Military forces worked their way down the "rat corridor" down the river valleys in the Heavily Sunni and Tribal countries all the way to the Syrian Border.

Here is a (350) Page paper, which I have not read in full from 2014 which examines the Iraqi Insurgency in much greater detail, which I would never attempt to boost lines from, simply to make a cheap political point when it comes to current political events.

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/140513_Cordesman_IraqInCrisis_Web.pdf

We might look at how ISIS expanded turf from Iraq-Syria into places such as South Asia, but reality is that there is a bit of a "Global Market" when it comes to expansion of outfits, recruiting from places, $$$ invested, etc...

AGAIN--- Not a hater in any way shape or form against Muslims, totally disagree with some of the political and economic systems established in various countries.

Fundamentally their is a bit of a mixture going on with the "Post-Colonial Movement" mixed with the various increase of support among Western Countries for "Friendly Military Dictatorships" vs "Foreign Military Dictatorships".

Left vs Right was virtually not on the radar when it came to the Super Powers, where "Imperialism" could eventually come from all sides, while generally the local population are stuck in proxy wars from Mozambique to Afghanistan.

Regardless, ISKP has been rebuilding over the past 2 years, regardless of massive military losses against both TB & ANA fighters (Not to mention US Air Strikes).

New Dude running the joint has been mostly quiet, other than setting off some massive explosions murdering tons of kids in Kabul, and various other atrocities not getting as much attention.

Regardless--- US and allies can and will strike at will against those behind this, and would not be surprised to see the Taliban start getting aggressive in some of their few remaining "rear bases" in East Afghanistan.

[NOVA Green]

So for anybody interested in reading an extremely detailed summary and high-level overview of the ISKP & Taliban relations in Afghanistan, here is an article from earlier today and Jeff as always hits it out of the ballpark:

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/world/story/explained-why-islamic-state-khorasan-and-taliban-are-at-loggerheads-with-each-other-in-afghanistan-1846475-2021-08-28?__twitter_impression=true

Also, Politico has an opinion magazine article out today regarding ISKP that might be worth a read for those who haven't already seen it:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/27/what-isis-k-means-for-afghanistan-507034

[NOVA Green]

Obviously not the most significant thing now, but to combat the revisionist history (i.e lies) of the media and the foreign policy establishment, it's simply false that the Afghan military only fell apart after the U.S withdrew air support.

U.S offers further air support to Afghan troops amid Taliban offensive

The Taliban has escalated its offensive in recent weeks, taking rural districts and surrounding provincial capitals, after U.S. President Joe Biden said in April U.S. troops would be withdrawn by September, ending a 20-year foreign military presence.

"The United States has increased airstrikes in support of Afghan forces over the last several days and we're prepared to continue this heightened level of support in the coming weeks if the Taliban continue their attacks," U.S. Marine General Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie told a news conference in Kabul.

Reeling from battlefield losses, Afghanistan's military is overhauling its war strategy against the Taliban to concentrate forces around the most critical areas like Kabul and other cities, border crossings and vital infrastructure, Afghan and U.S. officials have said

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-offers-further-air-support-afghan-troops-amid-taliban-offensive-2021-07-25/

So, the Afghan Army was in full retreat if not outright falling apart while the U.S was still providing air support.

This is very misleading. The US did ramp up air support after the Afghan army began to collapse, but the Afghan Army still only did begin to collapse in the first place with the withdrawal of air support, and even that later ramp-up was still (to my understanding) less than the air support that was provided prior to the withdrawals beginning in the first place.

Everything I posted there was quoted from the Reuters article.  The article mentions the Afghan army had suffered defeat after defeat to the Taliban and was in full retreat while the United States was still providing air support.  Far from me being misleading, it is you who are trying to continue the lying revisionist history.

Which is more likely to be true: an article that was written at the time that detailed what was going on, or neoconservatives speaking after the fact and trying to cover their asses and get revenge?  

I never said the US stopped providing air support: only that it ramped it down, which is true. (I did say withdrawal, so I see how that could be misinterpreted, but my reference was to the withdrawal of CAS for regular Afghan units -- not to a total withdrawal). I'm neither lying nor revising history.

The reality is that there was still significant air support at the time that the Afghan Army was being rapidly defeated and forced to retreat.  The claim that it was the loss of U.S air support that caused the Afghan Army to cave is a lie.

I'm sorry, this is really a strange debate. Are you claiming that the US withdrawal did not cause the collapse of the Afghan government?

How would you get that I said that when I have been continuously been referring to U.S air support.  I'll say it again then: it's a lie that the Afghan army collapsed because they did not have U.S air support.  The Afghan Army was already being steadily defeated and forced to retreat, if not already in a state of collapse, while they still had U.S air support.

Okay, so you're just talking about air support. The article you linked is from July 26. Here's a more in-depth article from two days before explaining what you're not understanding. Although the US did re-ramp up air strikes on July 26, that was only after the US withdrew from Bagram and other in-country airbases -- meaning that even that later ramp up was still less effective, less potent, and less sizable than prior to the US withdrawal. It remains an absolute fact that the withdrawal of US airsupport was correlated with the collapse of the Afghan Army. If you want to argue it wasn't the primary cause, fine -- but don't claim that the US didn't ramp down airstrikes prior to the fall of Afghanistan, because that's simply untrue.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2021/07/24/how-can-the-us-maintain-over-the-horizon-support-for-afghanistan/

If you read the Forbes article and the Military.com article together, I think it is clear that the United States had been providing air support while the Afghan Army was losing and was in a full state of retreat back to Kabul.  I do not disagree there might have been a one week period where the Afghan Army was defeated in a number of provinces when no air support was provided.

While the U.S was in Bagram and other air bases and was providing air support

A significant amount of territory has been seized over the course of six, eight, 10 months by the Taliban, so momentum appears to be -- strategic momentum appears to be -- sort of with the Taliban," Milley said.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/07/22/us-launched-several-airstrikes-support-of-afghan-forces.html

After the U.S military ramped up bombing again:
From the same article:
As the Taliban seize more territory, the Afghan security forces are consolidating their positions to protect key population centers, including Kabul, he said.

I do not dispute there seems to be this one week period where the U.S did not provide air support, but the article also mentions that the Afghan Army had been losing for months while full air support was still being provided.  And, the U.S air force did ramp up air support again.

So not to disrupt the conversation you are both having, which has interesting merits and perspectives, but simply do want to make a point which one of my best friends and myself have been discussing for some (20) years, and the reality is that air power does not control territory, which requires active military ground forces.

Trying to think of an historical war where air power has actually *Won* a war, and certainly even looking back to WW II, which was arguably the first war where Air Power was used as part of combined operations, it did definitely impact events, for example the "Blitzkrieg" military tactics of the German military, the US/UK Air superiority on the Western Front certainly played a significant role there, but both were supplemented with a significant investment in ground forces to both defend, hold, and expand territory.

I digress slightly and do not want to distract from the conversation (and no disrespect to my USAF friends), but the concept that air power alone could have changed the balance of the war in Afghanistan alone does not make logical sense (look at Soviet Air superiority for example in the '80s).

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile... looks like the TB are continuing their full court press when it comes to international legitimacy and foreign policy / diplomacy, and looks like they directly reached out to India (at least in terms of Political Communication).

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1431653566167412736?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Also, looking like the TB met with a Senior delegation of Afghan Sh'iites:

https://twitter.com/SAMRIReports/status/1431555883771863050?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Interesting article from The Economist regarding how deep rooted the financial corruption was in Afghanistan under the previous government:

Why Afghan officials have washed up in the United Arab Emirates

In some cases, their cash arrived first

For days the world wondered where President Ashraf Ghani had gone as the Taliban advanced on Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. It was little surprise when he surfaced in the United Arab Emirates (uae) on August 18th. Mr Ghani joins a long list of former leaders who have sought shelter in the sunny Gulf state. Pervez Musharraf, a former Pakistani president, Thaksin Shinawatra, a former Thai prime minister, and Juan Carlos, Spain’s erstwhile king, are all thought to call the uae home.

Most of these leaders left their countries under a cloud. Mr Musharraf was convicted of treason for abrogating and suspending Pakistan’s constitution in 2007. Thaksin Shinawatra was convicted of corruption committed while prime minister. Juan Carlos is accused of dodgy dealing with Saudi Arabia. And Mr Ghani (pictured) has been criticised for cutting and running, though he denies reports that he left Kabul with millions of dollars in cash. In a video posted on Facebook he said he fled “with one set of traditional clothes, a vest and the sandals I was wearing.”

Other Afghan officials planned ahead: they are suspected of having moved hundreds of millions of dollars from Kabul to Dubai, the uae’s financial hub, over the years. A former vice-president, Ahmad Zia Masood, once flew to Dubai with $52m (£38m) in cash, according to American diplomatic cables. (The average yearly income in Afghanistan is around $500.) Some of this money has gone towards real estate. Sher Khan Farnood, the late chairman of Kabul Bank (and high-stakes poker player), reportedly owned dozens of properties on the ritzy Palm Jumeirah in Dubai—or, at least, his name was on the property records. He gave loans to associates of Hamid Karzai, a former Afghan president, for the purchase of villas in the emirate. “What I’m doing is not proper, not exactly what I should do,” Farnood told the Washington Post in 2010. “But this is Afghanistan.”

Just as important, it is Dubai, which takes a relaxed attitude towards dirty money. The uae scores poorly on an index of money-laundering risk put together by the Basel Institute on Governance. That has made it the bane of foreign governments trying to tackle corruption—but a preferred haven for money-launderers, arms-smugglers and shady officials. Stable and secure, Dubai usually benefits when capital takes flight from more volatile parts of the region. Afghan officials are not the first to show up with suitcases full of cash. Baathists from Iraq rushed there when America invaded in 2003. So did relatives of Syria’s blood-soaked president, Bashar al-Assad, in 2012.

....

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/08/28/why-afghan-officials-have-washed-up-in-the-united-arab-emirates?utm_campaign=editorial-social&utm_medium=social-organic&utm_source=twitter

[NOVA Green]

First footage from inside the building hit by the US drone strike:

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1431782953219153920?s=20

[NOVA Green]

New US airstrike against IS:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/29/us-drone-strikes-an-isis-k-vehicle-packed-with-explosives-in-kabul.html

The United States carried out a military strike on Sunday against an ISIS-K target in Kabul, a development that comes in the final days of an immense humanitarian evacuation mission.

“U.S. military forces conducted a self-defense unmanned over-the-horizon airstrike today on a vehicle in Kabul, eliminating an imminent ISIS-K threat to Hamad Karzai International airport,” U.S. Central Command spokesman Navy Capt. Bill Urban wrote in a statement.

“We are confident we successfully hit the target. Significant secondary explosions from the vehicle indicated the presence of a substantial amount of explosive material,” he added.

There were no known civilian casualties following the strike.

Looks to be in the Khaje Bughra neighborhood of Kabul West of the airport (PD-11).

Unconfirmed reports multiple casualties including a child. Elsewhere (2) dead and (3) injured have been reported.


https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1431964281118003211?s=20


Edit: Just in Al Jazeera is reporting (3) children, based upon info from Afghan sources.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/29/kabul-airlift-enters-final-phase-us-warns-of-more-attacks-live

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- had been seeing reports of (9) civilians killed as a result of the drone strike, but was waiting to post until we had something more official.

https://twitter.com/holmescnn/status/1432070021300195328?s=20

[NOVA Green]

From the first individual to report on this who is an independent journalist who does some work for TOLOTV in Afghanistan, and does not appear to be a pro-TB / Propaganda guy based upon his previous posts.

Again, this is the problem with drone strikes especially within crowded densely populated areas....

Even if this was a result of secondary explosions, still doesn't make it any easier.


https://twitter.com/MuslimShirzad/status/1432067670141243394?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Surprised that there has not been a single comment yet on this....

Just recently got back after having run a few errands and a few more media outlets are starting to cover:

CNN:

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/afghanistan-kabul-taliban-us-news-08-29-21/h_2bd817e241b383fb2d746202ef5ed752

A man named Ahad, who said he was a neighbor of the family, told CNN: "All the neighbors tried to help and brought water to put out the fire and I saw that there were 5 or 6 people dead. The father of the family and another young boy and there were two children. They were dead. They were in pieces. There were [also] two wounded." 

Ahad told CNN he had witnessed the airstrike at around 5 pm local time as he walked towards his home. He said he heard the noise of the rocket and a loud bang, and ducked for cover, before trying to help rescue his neighbors. Ahad told CNN that two other people were wounded in the attack.

The US military said in their statement that there were “Significant secondary explosions from the vehicle indicated the presence of a substantial amount of explosive material,” the spokesperson said.

A local journalist who visited the scene soon after the airstrike told CNN that "whatever material was in the car, I don’t know. The car was in a very bad state, just a skeleton of the car was left." 

The journalist — who is not being named for security reasons — was told by family members of the deceased that there were two cars parked at the home: One was a Corona and the other was a Camry.

The journalist said he'd been told that one of the cars contained one of the fathers and his three children getting ready to go to a family event. 

The Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/aug/29/afghanistan-live-news-terror-attack-highly-likely-in-next-24-36-hours-says-biden-last-uk-troops-leave-kabul

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1432082514991009797?s=20

[NOVA Green]

So originally when I first got up this was something I was planning on posting an article I read from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ):

Taliban Move to Ban Opium Production in Afghanistan


Prices of the raw material for heroin soar in anticipation; the group is seeking acceptance from the international community

Taliban leaders, seeking international acceptance after seizing power in Afghanistan, have told farmers to stop cultivating opium poppies, residents of some major poppy-growing areas say. This has caused raw opium prices to soar across the country.

In recent days, Taliban representatives began telling gatherings of villagers in the southern province of Kandahar, one of the country’s main opium-producing regions, that the crop—a crucial part of the local economy—would now be banned.

This followed a statement by Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid at an Aug. 18 news conference in Kabul that the country’s new rulers won’t permit the drug trade. Mr. Mujahid at the time didn’t offer details of how the Islamist group intends to enforce the ban.

Local farmers in Kandahar, Uruzgan and Helman provinces said raw opium prices have tripled, from about $70 to about $200 per kilogram, due to uncertainty about future production. In the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif, the opium price has doubled, residents there said. Raw opium is processed into heroin.

The Taliban have long been one of the narcotics industry’s top beneficiaries, using taxation of the drug business to finance their 20-year insurgency, Western governments say. Afghanistan accounts for some 80% of the world’s illicit opiates exports, and the poppy-planting season starts in about a month.

Two decades of U.S. attempts to curb Afghanistan’s drug business have failed, partly due to the huge political cost of alienating Afghan farmers who depend on the poppy crops for their livelihoods.


....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/taliban-afghanistan-heroin-ban-opium-production-11630181316?mod=searchresults_pos1&page=1


Needless to say this is a HUGE deal, in that illicit supplies of Opiates have been causing havoc in Iran & Russia / (Some former Soviet Republics) for quite some time, w/o even going into the dimensions in Pakistan, but ALSO within Afghanistan over the past 20 years from when it was not considered Haram by the TB when they first took power, as opposed to Cannabis & Tobacco.

Opiate addiction in Afghanistan has gone through the roof compared to 1996, so might also net some domestict benefits as well as INTNL.

Still, much of the Talib base in rural Afghanistan when they started to recover ground starting maybe around '05/'06 started as alliances with local impoverished farmers, tribes, etc while drug eradication efforts were aligned with "Anti-Taliban" measures.

Obvious question here is that although the price of Opiates might be going through the roof according to the WSJ in some of the largest metro areas, to what extent will their be effective border controls and/or if TB choose to clamp down, will various other even more handline political-military formations move to guerrilla warfare and protect drug manufacturing outfits for $$$.

Not like this is a new thing if anybody really wants to bring up countries such Columbia for example....

[NOVA Green]

Hate to cross-post from my recent post on the "Sewer Board", but looks like we now have conformation from US Military that (5)-(6) civilians died.

Naturally I still have questions on "where the Intel came from" for the US drone strikes or if it might have been deliberately supplied from various hostile actors, but F**K this is not what the US should be doing, even though sometimes the folx running remote centers might have last minute decisions to do before they give the order, but yeah--- still would exactly be the def of a "bad day at work" for the team that made the decision on the US side.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=461200.msg8227774#msg8227774

[NOVA Green]

Breaking News:

New rocket strikes in Kabul apparently fired from a vehicle towards the airport and then following a retaliatory fire....


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/aug/30/afghanistan-live-news-kabul-taliban-latest-updates-airport-attack-islamic-state-isis-k-us-drone-strike-civilians-children-killed-deaths-reported