CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[NOVA Green]

MSNBC 800k Mail in Dump on recall

60.6% NO
38.4% YES

EDIT: Beaten to the punch by other voters by a sliver of seconds.

[NOVA Green]

Orange:

YES: 58.3%
NO: 41.7%

[NOVA Green]

LA County looks like

76% NO
24% YES

1.85 MIL Votes Counted

https://results.lavote.net/#year=2021&election=4278

[NOVA Green]

Orange County is at 58% No?

Must be a wave of conservative same day Conservative Asian-Americans and Latinos votes still to be counted....

[NOVA Green]

Placer County is leading NO thus far

[NOVA Green]

Wtf happened in Santa Clara

MSNBC seems to think its an error

It clearly is, WaPo results show No at 78.1%

Santa Clara County Election website is 78% no

[NOVA Green]

Damn Del Norte ruining the pacific coast sweep

Del Norte County results might indicate gains for the PUB challenger in OR-CD-04 in 2022 against DeFazio in similar communities across the OR-CA border.

Question is how far maxed out are PUB CD results in rurals of CD-04?

[NOVA Green]

*HOT TAKE *

Latino swings in CA and elsewhere as a % of voters btwn Trump '16 and Trump '20 was overrated.

Can't recall my exact quote I made sometime around the 2020 GE, but something to the effect that: "I would happily exchange raw vote margins for % vote margins".

Marginal gains among occasional voters in a large TO election (2020 GE PRES) do not translate to an overall net gain of RAW VOTES.

[NOVA Green]

Regarding OC & CA GOV Results in General:

*HOT TAKE *

Latino swings in CA and elsewhere as a % of voters btwn Trump '16 and Trump '20 was overrated.

Can't recall my exact quote I made sometime around the 2020 GE, but something to the effect that: "I would happily exchange raw vote margins for % vote margins".

Marginal gains among occasional voters in a large TO election (2020 GE PRES) do not translate to an overall net gain of RAW VOTES.

https://results.lavote.net/#year=2021&election=4278

Also:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=391670.msg8250605#msg8250605

Orange County is at 58% No?

Must be a wave of conservative same day Conservative Asian-Americans and Latinos votes still to be counted....

Sure once all of the ballots are counted YES might and will likely improve overall, but it really does look like PUBs dream of taking out Newsome with Elder and activating a SoCal Anglo Base plus building on the % margins of Trump '20 in more heavily Latino & Black communities of SoCal appears to have been a mirage.

"Angel Dust"--- "Pipe Dreams"--- "Trial Balloons".

Reality is that the Cali PUB Party has become so "Cray Cray", and "Purity Oriented" that they can't even attempt a decent replay of the Gray recall in the '00s when Schwarzenegger won as an "Independent", despite his prior affiliation with the Republican Party.

I mean what is not to like about Schwarzenegger way back in '03/'04 in California?

Here's a picture from a Wrestling Match back in '67 and YouTube Link further down and below:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmVq9UKeOiI

[NOVA Green]

Are there gonna be daily dumps like after the 2020 election? There's still a lot of votes to be counted.

Not quite sure how this will work in the context of a recall election where theoretically counting should go much quicker than during a regular GE or PRIM election, but general rule is that each county maintains their own update schedule.

Some counties such as OC & Santa Clara would typically update daily.
Others dumps might be 1x or 2x /week, although possibly with a greater frequency earlier on (Seem to recall Riverside & San Bernadino fitting more into that category).

Others don't necessarily much much reason or rhyme  with their schedules.

Some tend to be notorious for always being some of the last to finish counting their votes (Kern & Humboldt seem to always be some of the last).

Hope that helps, but really when I was doing daily tracking updates in the '16 and '20 PRES elections for Cali (Primary & GEs), I would typically go to each County website and create updates and notes in my daily result tracking spreadsheets.

Hope that helps--- don't plan on doing it for this election myself however.

[NOVA Green]

CASOS said there were 2.9 million ballots left to be counted (as of a few hours ago). Looks like we're on track for ~12.5m ballots.

IMHO CA SoS numbers need to be carefully vetted vs county #s, since have experienced database upload differential numbers in Cali vs County in the past....

Obviously certain counties are much easier to quantify, but I've seen multiple times Large Counties such as Alameda and Los Angeles had issues where the estimated vote out numbers ended up being a false metric....

Always tend to be cautious on Cali, especially with the "estimated total remaining column on the report.

[NOVA Green]

Just wondering, what was the result in Beverly Hills?

Well... assuming you know that these will not be broken down by City yet on the Los Angeles County election website, just like Orange County, we will need to rely on other sources.

Looks like the Los Angeles Times is tracking this (Not sure their update frequency).

Don't have LA County precinct coding at my fingertips, but in the 2020 Primary following precinct codes assigned to Beverly Hills:

LOCATION   PRECINCT
BEVERLY HILLS   0900004A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900005A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900010A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900014A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900016B
BEVERLY HILLS   0900025A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900026A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900030A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900033B
BEVERLY HILLS   0900037A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900041A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900046A


Doesn't match precinct numbers from 2021 based upon LAT data set but here are numbers from Beverly Hills based upon their latest update:

Pct 1A:   52-48 YES     (890 TVs)
Pct 4a:   62.5-37.5 YES (451 TVs)
Pct 5a:   51-49 YES     (777 TVs)
Pct 8a:   62-38 YES     (586 TVs)
Pct 10a: 45-55 NO       (1623 TVs)
Pct 16a: 45-55 NO       (1438 TVs)
Pct 18a: 41-59 NO       (1484 TVs)
Pct 20a: 46-54 NO       ( 748 TVs)
Pct 25b: 38-62 NO       ( 356 TVs)
Pct 33a: 34-66 NO       (1405 TVs)
Pct 39a: 36-64 NO       (1568 TVs)

Hope that helps!!!!







https://www.latimes.com/projects/newsom-recall-election-results-southern-california-analysis/#nt=00000175-c749-da42-a377-ff5f38920001-7030col1-main

[NOVA Green]

Just wondering, what was the result in Beverly Hills?

Well... assuming you know that these will not be broken down by City yet on the Los Angeles County election website, just like Orange County, we will need to rely on other sources.

Looks like the Los Angeles Times is tracking this (Not sure their update frequency).

Don't have LA County precinct coding at my fingertips, but in the 2020 Primary following precinct codes assigned to Beverly Hills:

LOCATION   PRECINCT
BEVERLY HILLS   0900004A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900005A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900010A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900014A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900016B
BEVERLY HILLS   0900025A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900026A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900030A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900033B
BEVERLY HILLS   0900037A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900041A
BEVERLY HILLS   0900046A


Doesn't match precinct numbers from 2021 based upon LAT data set but here are numbers from Beverly Hills based upon their latest update:

Pct 1A:   52-48 YES     (890 TVs)
Pct 4a:   62.5-37.5 YES (451 TVs)
Pct 5a:   51-49 YES     (777 TVs)
Pct 8a:   62-38 YES     (586 TVs)
Pct 10a: 45-55 NO       (1623 TVs)
Pct 16a: 45-55 NO       (1438 TVs)
Pct 18a: 41-59 NO       (1484 TVs)
Pct 20a: 46-54 NO       ( 748 TVs)
Pct 25b: 38-62 NO       ( 356 TVs)
Pct 33a: 34-66 NO       (1405 TVs)
Pct 39a: 36-64 NO       (1568 TVs)

Hope that helps!!!!

Took the liberty of crunching current numbers per LAT by precinct and putting a map up:




Numbers= Pct ID Numbers
Digits= Yes %- NO %
TV= Total Votes

Interestingly enough the precincts North of Santa Monica Blvd are the most "Pro-YES", and are roughly 90% Anglo with MHI's in NE precincts $184k /Yr and in NW precincts $250k/yr.








https://www.latimes.com/projects/newsom-recall-election-results-southern-california-analysis/#nt=00000175-c749-da42-a377-ff5f38920001-7030col1-main

[NOVA Green]

Santa Barbara County vote margin is now the same exact margin as statewide to the tee! Both are No 62.7% - Yes 37.3%!

Solano County is at the same margin as well: No vote - 97,780 - 62.7%; Yes vote - 58,248 - 37.3%.

Does anybody know why the number of unprocessed ballots in Los Angeles County went UP drastically about 2-3 days ago? The number of unprocessed ballots used to be under 300,000, and it has gone up by more than 100,000 to nearly 413,000.

Probably ballots that were mailed by election day but didn't arrive till after the weekend.

Not unusual at all to see LA County numbers fluctuate wildly since they provide guesstimates to the SoS based upon data modelling and then adjust as actuals come in.

Sbane is pretty tight on the money here, although I could be wrong but from my recollection when I used to follow it more closely is that Provisionals in LA County tend to drop off more so than in most other counties in CA as a % of ballots.

[NOVA Green]

I just learned something I never knew before as I was comparing the results to previous elections

Romney LOST riverside county in 2012?

How did I not know that lol

It still blows my mind that Dukakis only won LA County 53-47 back in '88, and how San Diego County used to be a Republican stronghold for quite some time after....