Switch Warren's and Biden's numbers, and I'd say it's a little more realistic. Sanders could definitely do better in SoCal this time around, given his strength among Latinos.
Well to be fair, Bernie actually did quite well among Latinos in California in '16, and even possibly better than Anglo voters.
Here's the Oldie but goodie 2016 Final Primary Megathread, which you posted into a bit as well back in the dayz.
(C&P into a web-browser since it looks like it doesn't directly link into an archived file?).
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238320.10501.) SoCal--- Interesting that Sanders 2020 appears to be doing better in LA County than OC or San Diego County, considering that it was the other way around in 2016. Obviously a +10% HRC win in LA County is a much bigger deal than a +4% HRC margin in OC or SD.....
Now if we look at the ethnic makeup of the entire population (Not just the Democratic electorate), SD County has the highest % of Anglos (and most likely a
much higher % of Anglo Voters). Even accounting for greater Republican proclivities among Anglo SoCal Voters, this still leaves a pretty decent DEM Primary Constituency of wealthier and Middle Class Anglo Voters, which needless to say were not Bernie's greatest voting bloc in '16. Many Asian-Americans of similar age, occupation, economic, and educational background, frequently residing in the same types of communities and precincts voted similarly to their Anglo neighbors.
2.) Bernie's success in SoCal was heavily based upon a coalition of working and middle class Democrats from a wide variety of educational backgrounds, ethnicities, and social experiences, hence his success in winning overwhelmingly working-class overwhelmingly Latino Majority Regions (CD-34) and (CD-46)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_34th_congressional_districthttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_46th_congressional_district3.) The most surprising regional breakdown in the poll was the SF Bay Area (and Bernie's worst region within the State in '16).
Although he performed extremely well in Alameda County (Even winning Oakland!?), managed to track his statewide averages in the City, he got absolutely slaughtered in the Vote Bank of Santa Clara County (Metro San Jose). Numbers were less than impressive in the wealthy hills overlooking the flats of Contra Costa, the "eco designed towns of Marin", and got absolutely slaughtered in the Peninsula.
A Bernie tie in the Bay Area would certainly presage a major statewide win.... key question will be what DEMs drop out before CA starts early voting the same day as Iowa (Feb 3rd), and then NH, etc....
4.) This could work to both Bernie's advantage or disadvantage.... let's say hypothetically Yang, Mayor Pete, Klobuchar drop out before/after a significant number of EV ballot ballots are cast and before the March 3rd Primary....
5.) How will the first round of potential culls impact the outcome of the CA DEM Primary? (again throwing out some random names, so please don't take offense if I implied your preferred DEM candidate might be dropping out).
6.) The other trippy scenario is that because it takes CA so long to count their ballots, mainly to protect the right of the voter, allow access to elections, but also to prevent voter fraud, we don't even know if we will have a declared winner in CA on election Night (Which could impact the perception of Super Tuesday in subsequent States and spin the Media narrative).
7.) I tracked absentee, provisional ballots etc on a daily basis during the '16 DEM Primary into my Excel spreadsheets to see "what votes were out and where" and posted on Atlas Forum, but the reality is that there will be a HUGE number of CA votes that will not be fully counted until close to the wire to meet State Certification deadlines....
Anyways---- rant aside.
California is a really fun State to cover when it comes to election results, because it is the gift that keeps giving (Which in someways is more fitting for a grand finale than a Super Tuesday State, where we won'g even know the final numbers until likely close to the Wisconsin Primary....
