NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[NOVA Green]

I mean the ad was kinda spammy and annoying but Murphy saying NJ's not your state if you don't like high taxes is probably not the best statement.

He actually said that?

SALT is likely a bigger issue in NJ than VA....

Even working-class folxs got screwed by the Trump / Republican tax cuts in '17.

Not being able to deduct the same amount of State taxes from our Fed taxes hosed us when we moved back to OR and the rent had shot through the roof, while all of the money goes into the pockets of rich folks elsewhere....

[NOVA Green]

There goes my Murphy+7 prediction, up in smoke.

Happens sometimes, best to contain it and chill, still looks like it might be a longer night than expected in NJ....

[NOVA Green]

There goes my Murphy+7 prediction, up in smoke.

Happens sometimes, best to contain it and chill, still looks like it might be a longer night than expected in NJ....

Oh, I'm not mad, no need to chill. I'm just surprised. This came out of the left field.

No hate pack from my side....    we cool?

[NOVA Green]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

This has, of course, always been the case.

And it leaves Democrats with a problem which is at once simple and all too difficult to solve: their vibes are simply atrocious at the moment.

Those bickering over who’s progressive or moderate enough need to hear this. People vote based on feelings. The Democratic Party needs new blood, and to give a different impression to voters; policy and ideology are secondary to voters.

This is why Bernie is better electorally than AOC. AOC seems like a whiny socially far-leftist whereas Bernie seems like an old angry dude who cares about people and wants to shake up the system.

Quoted for Truth!!!!

[NOVA Green]

So Ciattarelli still up 1.7k votes.

Assuming this will likely flip, but anybody have opinions on the margins?

[NOVA Green]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pWm-E6k-nsFNQZU8oJpYxcN1iVuv2VpA1d0A_03rz1U/edit#gid=1371359546

We're not done counting yet, but it's safe to say the margin won't change too much.
I input my county-only results.

1) Not surprisingly, the highest turnout came from red counties. Their turnout mostly ranged from 59-66% of 2020 turnout. Some of the most important blue counties' turnouts were below 50% of 2020 turnout.

2) Cittarelli improved upon Trump's margin in almost every county by double digits except Hudson county, where margin roughly stayed the same. It is one of the counties Trump made significant inroad in 2020. You'd have thought Cittarelli could input more damage to it. Nope. Truly odd anomaly.

Many Republicans would have voted more if they knew it was going to be this close. Republicans that sat out this election thinking Murphy had it in the bag is going to be banging their feet.

For those interested, I have my bluest and reddest cities in 2020 in "Total" tab, which is the leftmost tab. The bluest city was East Orange City and reddest city was Lakewood. 

Nice!

Interesting to see no swing in Hudson County between '20 and '21 (Not sure how many votes are still out there??? ). 

So were Working-Class Latino swings from '20 > '21 a non-issue and really this was more of the "Suburban Moms" vote?

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1456382601887895552?s=20

The margin is widening as expected. There's no grounds for a recount. Why is he doing this?

He learned it from Trump.....

[NOVA Green]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pWm-E6k-nsFNQZU8oJpYxcN1iVuv2VpA1d0A_03rz1U/edit#gid=1371359546

We're not done counting yet, but it's safe to say the margin won't change too much.
I input my county-only results.

1) Not surprisingly, the highest turnout came from red counties. Their turnout mostly ranged from 59-66% of 2020 turnout. Some of the most important blue counties' turnouts were below 50% of 2020 turnout.

2) Cittarelli improved upon Trump's margin in almost every county by double digits except Hudson county, where margin roughly stayed the same. It is one of the counties Trump made significant inroad in 2020. You'd have thought Cittarelli could input more damage to it. Nope. Truly odd anomaly.

Many Republicans would have voted more if they knew it was going to be this close. Republicans that sat out this election thinking Murphy had it in the bag is going to be banging their feet.

For those interested, I have my bluest and reddest cities in 2020 in "Total" tab, which is the leftmost tab. The bluest city was East Orange City and reddest city was Lakewood. 

Lakewood, huh?  So what did Murphy do to pass off the Orthodox community.

Believe that is the 2020 PRES results he was reffing...

We did see some similar results in various other Uber-Orthodox places in 2020 in certain communities in New York for example (But the tab was not 2021 NJ-GOV results).