Although this poll seems a bit of an outlier, the trend lines have been clearly moving in Ducey's favor since the end of the Teacher's Strike....
I do wonder if we're starting to see a lagging indicator from the recent Gubernatorial Debates, as well as increased focus on how to address public education funding?
I suspect that Garcia might be experiencing a two-way hit:
1.) Teacher's won a +20% pay increase by 2020, and Ducey appears to possibly be benefiting from this to some extent.
2.) Part of Garcia's funding model to pay for increased spending on education involves a significant tax increase on upper middle-class households,
the very same population that has been swinging against the Republican Party over the past few election cycles in the 2016 Presidential Race, and also in the AZ CD-08 Special Election.
3.) This is ultimately part of the "inherent contradiction of the welfare state", where voters want increased services from the state, but also generally aren't crazy about tax raises to fund such services.
4.) Garcia, with his background in educational policy, might well be expected to be a favorite on this issue, but it appears that Ducey might be "one-upping" him and essentially neutralizing the issue by effectively running as the "Education Governor", and undermining what *should* in theory be an area where Garcia would have an edge.
Not sure this is exactly what's going on here, but fuel for thought at least.
https://www.azpm.org/p/home-articles-news/2018/9/25/137890-ducey-garcia-spar-on-education-economy/https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2018/09/07/education-funding-david-garcia-doug-ducey-invest-ed/1214326002/https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/01/arizona-governor-election-doug-ducey-david-garcia-talk-policy/1490567002/https://www.npr.org/2018/08/27/641649941/3-ways-education-is-influencing-arizonas-midterms
