2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[NOVA Green]

I'm a bit surprised people are just writing off OH-12. Balderson barely squeaked it out, and this fall, Dems will have the turnout edge with someone like Brown probably having huge margins in the Senate race. It's definitely plausible for O'Connor to win.

Not to mention, I wouldn't be surprised if the Franklin County margin was even bigger for O'Connor now than it was before after Balderson's remarks sink in. When he said it, it was only like a day before the election.

I'm not writing OH-12 off....

Assuming that when you talk about Franklin County % margins is what you are speaking to, since overall turnout will likely be quite a bit higher in November, as will raw vote margins for both DEMs and REPs alike within their respective support bases.

This race is still very much a tossup, albeit with an extremely narrow PUB edge....

[NOVA Green]

I love having all these homophobes and homophobia apologists on ignore. Really stresses me out on a personal level to see people denying my humanity and part of my identity but, hey, they chose the GOP for a reason

Well, people are entitled (and will stick) to their opinion, even if Supreme Court decided otherwise. I support LGBT rights, but, for example, in my country 95% of people think otherwise. Ignore all? You will not be able simply live in country in that case.

You live in a Neo-Fascist Dictatorship where the elites under the Oligarchy, especially since the rise of Putin, have systematically used extremely sophisticated tactics to steer social discontent into "hatred of the others", where the organs of the State, Church, and Media reinforce Homophobic narratives domestically, as well as Wars of Aggression targeting ethnic and religious minority populations not only domestically, but additionally within the former states of the USSR, and even beyond.

Obviously you are not personally responsible for these actions, and seem like a decent and reasonable individual, but it is difficult to compare these types of discussions within a Democratic Society versus a totalitarian one-party state (despite the rhetoric to the contrary), especially in light of the role of the Counter-Revolutionaries that attempted to destroy the original goals of the Gorbachev era....

At least in the United States, Civil Society has changed the narrative when it comes to LGBT issues, despite the attempts of the reactionaries to advance forward progress....

Where is Civil Society in modern day Russia, where journalists and business leaders are murdered in the streets of the Country, and even abroad and former states of the USSR that can stand against the repressive apparatus of the State?

[NOVA Green]

Honestly, I wish one our Entrepreneurial and Innovative Atlas Members could find a way to develop some type of spreadsheet to track all of these house polls into one database....

IDK, it doesn't seem like there is currently a mechanism to include a variety of polls (Internal/External) topline numbers, hyperlinks to official or semi-official sources, etc....

Surely that would be a service that would be valuable to internal and external customers alike, and make it much easier to examine these numbers ourselves, rather than being heavily influenced by various pundits elsewhere, that sometimes might have less valuable contributions, and in other cases where we might be able to compliment the data that they provide?

Something to think about....

Maybe Atlas already has that feature, but it requires some sort of subscription fee?

If not, that might be a Forum improvement, which might convince some leaners to chip in a few $$$  for access to such a database?

[NOVA Green]

Honestly, I wish one our Entrepreneurial and Innovative Atlas Members could find a way to develop some type of spreadsheet to track all of these house polls into one database....

IDK, it doesn't seem like there is currently a mechanism to include a variety of polls (Internal/External) topline numbers, hyperlinks to official or semi-official sources, etc....

Surely that would be a service that would be valuable to internal and external customers alike, and make it much easier to examine these numbers ourselves, rather than being heavily influenced by various pundits elsewhere, that sometimes might have less valuable contributions, and in other cases where we might be able to compliment the data that they provide?

Something to think about....

Maybe Atlas already has that feature, but it requires some sort of subscription fee?

If not, that might be a Forum improvement, which might convince some leaners to chip in a few $$$  for access to such a database?

538 keeps a record of all these polls.

If it's good enough for 538, then it could be even better on Atlas....

Plus, if we have a "voluntary donation" that allows one to access not just "current data" but also "historical data" that is a sales pitch right there, and maybe even justify a potential minor increase in the price point to the core institutional consumers of Atlas.... (Academia and possibly even the Media Sector).

538 is but a fleeting glimpse in time and space, and despite some of the awesome stuff that we saw starting roughly back in '08, is essentially destined to confine political analysis as a "side gig" to shop other stuff they do, such as sports statistics, etc....

Atlas will outlast 538 by a 100 Years, even with an "Old Skool" web template....

[NOVA Green]

AK-AL (Alaska Survey Research):

https://twitter.com/lruskin/status/1049756787082219520

What's the margin of error on this?

4.4%.  The poll details are here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/13gTXhrZlbn3FRMbCoSIC1PkIyUWa3gEN/view.

Tossup Alaska?

They are technically part of the Pacific Northwest, albeit a bit more ornery (Throw in a decent dash of Maine, Coastal Oregon, Native Voters, then mix it up a bit with some Resource based communities (Mining & Petro), add in a MatSu, et voila you have a unique Molotov cocktail that could potentially hit a tank turret against a Panzer Mark I circa WW II....

Not saying this will happen, but honestly it wouldn't surprise me to see something unusual happen in Alaska-AL in '18 or '20....

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1051833792145575936?s=19

Why the huge swing in the Iron range ?

Because that's a junk poll.

No, this is a junk poll:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1051939004512460801

This....

It appears to be the creation of an individual who has been on a 3-4 Day Crystal Meth Smoking Binge, in an extremely remote part of Polk or Eastern Clackamas / Marion Counties, conducting an informal poll of aforementioned economically deprived Republican regions of the district.

The more benign or charitable explanation might be that the pollster in question simply accidentally flipped the Democratic and Republican levels of support within the District?

Considering that roughly 35% of the Vote Share of the District is in the relatively Upper-Middle Class Portland Suburbs of Clackamas County, including places such as Lake Oswego and West Linn, not to mention heavily traditionally overwhelmingly Democratic Working Class suburbs such as Milwaukee and Oregon City, that did not experience any significant movements towards Trump in '16, these results are a bit bizarre.

I could certainly see a OR-CD-'05 Rep doing well in the fast growing Exurbs of Happy Valley, although this region of Clackamas did swing significantly Democratic in '16 at the Presidential Level, and is fairly well educated and upper-middle class.

Then we get into Marion County, where Metro Salem accounts for roughly 30% of the District Vote Share, with Salem being a Democratic stronghold, and Keizer being a narrow Trump plurality.

There are tons of smaller communities within Marion County, many of which swung heavily towards Trump '16, but even there it starts to become a bit problematic considering the largest of these is Woodburn, located fairly close to Salem, and an historically Latino Majority City, but now becoming a fast growing Exurban part of Metro PDX as well.

Roll West into Dallas County, and although it is certainly plausible that a Republican REP could improve on '16 margins overall throughout the County, there are still major population Centers (West Salem), which is fairly educated and Middle-Class, heavily Democratic College Twin Cities (Monmouth-Independence), and then of course Dallas, which is the largest Republican population center within the County, but still doesn't account for a huge chunk of the overall vote share, and still isn't an overwhelmingly Republican City.

Move over to the Oregon Coast, and Lincoln County has one the highest % of 65+ within Oregon, but they are generally Democratic leaning Seniors.

Tillamook County, also has a decent % of Seniors, and tends to be a bit swingier...

Generally true rural precincts within this district already tend to be overwhelmingly Republican historically, much of which is a direct result of the "Yankee Farmer Settler Population of the Region", and then once you start heading up into the Hills of the Coast and Cascade Mountain Range, more recently Republican, as a result of the collapse of the logging industry in these communities, and local perceptions that Democratic Statewide officials weren't fighting hard enough for their interests versus those of the "Environmentalists" in Salem and Washington DC.

Simply put: The math does not support anything close to these numbers at all, even if the "Buehler Effect" is causing massive swings in OR-CD-05.

Still.... anybody who believe this poll is anywhere close to reality, needs to immediately file a complaint with the Oregon Attorney Generals Office as a Consumer Complaint against the quality of the Crystal Meth they have consumed.