OR-Oregon Public Broadcasting Poll: Gov. Kate Brown (D) not in danger, up by 10

[NOVA Green]

I will have to see a few more polls before I move this into the +7.5% D category, but it does appear that Buehler's "faux hipness" campaign targeting Indies in Metro PDX, and to a lesser extent in downstate smaller Metro areas such as Salem (Marion/Polk), Eugene-Springfield (Lane), and in the Mid Valley places such as Linn-Benton Counties is starting to scrape deep into the bottom of the barrel.

Simply put, it's not the Year for a "Liberal Republican" to unseat a relatively new Progressive Governor of Oregon in a State that generally has extremely high levels of voter turnout thanks to AVR and VBM....

Trump obviously is something in the back of every potential Dem > R swing voters minds in Oregon, regardless of the suburbs of PDX, the Cities of the Valley, Southern Oregon and the Coastal parts of the state.

[NOVA Green]

Surprised it's only 10 points tbh.

Its an improvement from 7% in the 2016 Governor race. Plus Oregon has a lot of conservative rural areas and towns doesnt it?

This should give you a decent starting point about Oregon Politics....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5386692#msg5386692

Here is another really good poster on another Forum, who actually inspired some of my works when it comes to looking at Oregon from a more holistic perspective....

https://www.dailykos.com/news/OregonPoliticalGeography

Bottom line: Frequent divergence between Presidential / US Senate / US REP results vs Statewide Oregon Elections, but "Conservative" in Oregon even in rural areas isn't exactly what it means in many other places in the US.   

Hope that helps provide further research angles, especially when we start to look at "Upstate" and "Downstate" dynamics.....