Although, I have been extremely reticent to post on this topic over the past Five Months, except an occasional handful of individual threads, I'm starting to move towards the opinion that Brown will likely win this by at least +5% D margins this November.
Anyone who followed or spent any time in my Oregon 2016 GE Thread is well aware of the import that I place on "Upstate vs Downstate Oregon politics" ....
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.01.) I'm coming of the opinion that in the current political environment Trump essentially "Maxed Out" the Republican Vote Share in most of Southern and Eastern Oregon.
The only places where I could see Buehler improving might be around the margins in places like Medford, Grants Pass, and Bend, but NOT in the heavily RURAL precincts of essentially CD-02.
2.) If we move further up in the Southern Willamette Valley, and some parts of Southern Coastal Oregon (CD-04) we generally see a similar phenomenon compared to Several Decades of partisan electoral history, even for Statewide Elections, where 'Pubs tend to perform a bit better than FED candidates.
2016 in many ways was more of an alignment in Southern Oregon areas that had been voting heavily Republican for Statewide Contests, while simultaneously some voters filling in their Mail in Ballot for Democrats for PRES, US-SEN, and OR CD-04.
Still, how many more PUB votes are there to be bagged for OR-GOV in '18 compared to TRUMP '16 and OR-GOV '16 #s?
Sure there are potential Indy Voters in parts of Eugene-Springfield that voted HRC '16 that might vote Buehler '18,
BUT IS IT ENOUGH.3.) We roll into the Mid Willamette Valley (OR-CD-05), which is a weird hybrid CD stretching from PDX suburbs and Exurbs all the way down to encompass all of Marion County, grabbing a chunk of Benton and Linn Counties....
In theory, if Buehler were to win, he would need to bag some major numbers in this CD in Oregon....
Problem is that Marion County contains Salem, the State Capitol, and running against Salem doesn't play very well in Marion County, considering that there are HUGE number of State employees covered under Union contracts that come from a wide array of Political, Social, and Economic classes, that don't buy the message that "Government is the Enemy"....
Additionally CD-05 contains some pretty swingy parts of Metro PDX suburban Clackamas County, where quite frankly the 'Pub brand is pretty toxic these days in the "Era of Trump".
Many of the bills that Kate Brown signed into law and helped support through the Democratic Oregon Majority State House and Senate, are fairly popular in these very communities where Buehler needs to reverse some of the massive DEM swings we have seen in the past few election cycles, in areas traditionally more receptive towards a 'PUB GOV, regardless of what the political alignment is "Out East in Washington (DC not State
)"
4.) We look at CD-01.... The Coastal Oregon sliver of the District is heavily aging and Ancestral Democrat, and historically has been fairly resistant to "Downstate" vs "Upstate" political dynamics in terms of FED vs OR STATE elections.... (Excepting Columbia County).
Now we move into the West PDX Suburbs that compromise a large majority of the Vote Share in CD-01 and again we hit that brick wall of places likes Hillsboro, Beaverton, Tigard, etc that started shifting hard DEM at the FED level going back over 20 Yrs, and even increasingly DEM at the Statewide level, although these elections typically have been much closer in these communities contrasted against FED DEM margins.
It's hard for me to envision in 2018 a "Compassionate Moderate Conservative" like Buehler playing well in these types of places, considering the leader of the "PUB BRAND" he is representing, in arguably one of the most educated and ethnically diverse Counties in Oregon (Washington County), which ever since I was a kid in the '80s was nicknamed "Silicon Forest"....
5.) OR-CD-03- East Portland & Gresham
Well, obviously the game here for Buehler would be to keep DEM TO low, since the raw vote totals out of East MultCo can one hand completely slaughter PUB raw margins elsewhere in Oregon.
Many people seem to forgot how poorly Trump performed in both the Working-Class, Middle-Class, and Upper Middle-Class precincts of most of the Big Cities of the West Coast....
Sure, Buehler might well be able to jack up some numbers in fast growing Gresham and Troutdale, but I'm not really seeing the math here, even in both WWC precincts in the North part of the District, heavily SE-Asian-American precincts in outer SE and Inner NE Portland, etc....
I might well be wrong, so my opinion is not gospel and can and certainly should be challenged....
6.) Kate Brown is already reviled and despised in many parts of rural and small-town downstate Oregon.
A.) Much of that has less to do with her actual policy decisions, but rather that whole Oregonian thing where in more peripheral parts of the State there is a disassociation between the "Core and Periphery" that goes back in Decades of Oregon State Elections, especially with the start of the "Timber Wars" of the late '80s/ Early Mid '90s.
B.) Guns is a major issue that I have heard voiced in the large MFG Facility where I work, and even excepting partisan bias on the part of some individuals, there is a perception among many DEM persuadable voters that, she has an "Anti-Gun" agenda...
This is a part of Oregon, where if someone brings in some Venison Steak or Sausage to work, because they or their spouse filled out their tags, it get's brought in to share with co-workers at the Plant, because there are already plenty of Venison Steaks in the freezer to last until next Deer Hunting Season.
C.) Kate Brown's alleged sexual orientation is a non-issue to the overwhelming majority of Oregon Voters....
Haters will be haters, and honestly most Oregonians don't give an eff about any of that.
Evangelicals will def vote hard PUB in OR since they have from the '90s onwards, but quite frankly there aren't very many of them in Oregon, and since the days of the OCA, the swingy ones are long since disassociated from the Anti-LGTBQ Hate Agenda that we experienced from the late '80s to the early '90s....
D.) One thing that in theory might have worked in the PUBS favor the OR-GOV election, "Tax Cuts", which in theory disproportionately benefit Middle and Upper Middle-Class voters in the 'Burbs of PDX, Salem, Eugene, not to mention many other similar communities in places like Corvallis, Jackson and Deschutes County, has effectively been neutered by the "Trump Tax Cuts" that disproportionately targeted Democratic leaning States where individuals could deduct State Income Taxes from FED taxes to lower their overall Tax Burden....
Not seeing how well this will play in Wealthier places in Deschutes, Jackson, Washington, Clackamas, Benton, and even Multnomah Counties.....
