OR-Gravis: Tied race

[NOVA Green]

Oregon’s inelastic. Brown will win by about 5 points. Although I like Buehler and he’s just about as left-wing as you can get for a Republican these days, similarly moderate Republicans like Dudley have failed to win even in 2010, so I don’t really see him winning in this environment.

Pretty much this....

Trump basically maxed out the small town and rural Oregon vote in '16, and the only way a Pub would make it close to a Statewide race would be make the PDX burbs somewhat competitive...

Not really seeing that happen with Trump waving the banner of the Modern National Republican Party....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon is definitely not tied with likely voters in the 2018 OR-GOV election....

Sure Gravis is actually hitting many of the right numbers from a polling methodology in terms of age groups, voting history in the 2016 Presidential Election, still their overall Trump Approval/Disapproval numbers look a bit suspect...

It is absolutely true that Kate Brown will perform much more poorly than a Democratic Candidate for US-PRES or OR-SEN (Upstate-Downstate Oregon political dynamics that I have mentioned frequently on other posts).

There are many voters in Downstate Oregon not enamored of her support for Gun Control Legislation that she signed into law, as well as your usual fringe Oregonian Christian Coalition types pissed about support for Female Reproductive Choice that she signed into law, expansion of protection for LGBTQ Oregonians, etc...

We also have the old canard of the "jobs vs environment" bag, etc....

Still, even this Gravis poll shows that the vast majority of "undecided voters" are 18-49 which is a demographic that will be most supportive of her candidacy in a 100% Vote-by-Mail (VbM) and AVR state with extremely high turnout even in Mid-Term elections.

That old Gravis dawg don't hunt and once again is up to some funky business with the numbers and none of them have ever likely set foot in Oregon in their lives....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon is definitely not tied with likely voters in the 2018 OR-GOV election....

Sure Gravis is actually hitting many of the right numbers from a polling methodology in terms of age groups, voting history in the 2016 Presidential Election, still their overall Trump Approval/Disapproval numbers look a bit suspect...

It is absolutely true that Kate Brown will perform much more poorly than a Democratic Candidate for US-PRES or OR-SEN (Upstate-Downstate Oregon political dynamics that I have mentioned frequently on other posts).

There are many voters in Downstate Oregon not enamored of her support for Gun Control Legislation that she signed into law, as well as your usual fringe Oregonian Christian Coalition types pissed about support for Female Reproductive Choice that she signed into law, expansion of protection for LGBTQ Oregonians, etc...

We also have the old canard of the "jobs vs environment" bag, etc....

Still, even this Gravis poll shows that the vast majority of "undecided voters" are 18-49 which is a demographic that will be most supportive of her candidacy in a 100% Vote-by-Mail (VbM) and AVR state with extremely high turnout even in Mid-Term elections.

That old Gravis dawg don't hunt and once again is up to some funky business with the numbers and none of them have ever likely set foot in Oregon in their lives....

Still, both sides have been nuking the airwaves so things could get interesting down the line

Sure, especially if we start to see significant 'Pub gains in Washington and Clackamas Counties, not to mention some of the more affluent precincts within Portland, where Republican historically in relatively recent years have been known to do quite well in various Statewide non-Federal elections....