Trump vs Harris - Arizona 2020

[NOVA Green]

Lean/Tilt Harris.

Honestly it's difficult for me to envision Trump winning Maricopa County in 2020, (and with it Arizona), regardless of whomever the Democrats choose to select as their nominee.

Considering Trump only received 47.7% of the Maricopa County Vote in 2016, and won it by less than 3% against HRC, who had some major liabilities with Registered Independent voters, it is difficult to see Trump improving his performance here.

We not only have some significant demographic changes in Maricopa County, with a relatively fast growing Metro area experiencing both net population growth from outside of Arizona, but additionally a growing chunk of younger voters coming of age, that are a fairly ethnically diverse lot, as well as politically one of Trump's weakest Demographics.

I mean if we look for example at what happened in CD-08 in the 2018 Special Election, which had one of the smallest swings between '12 and '16 between the major parties compared to many other parts of Maricopa County, it is looking pretty grim within the "breadbasket of Arizona voters".

Sure it's *possible* that Latino turnout might drop in 2020 compared to 2016 without "Sheriff Joe" on the ballot.... it's entirely possible that suddenly Middle and Upper-Middle Class Anglos might swing back a bit if they feel they are getting a major tax cut gain courtesy of Mr. Trump....

The problem is we don't have any real evidence that this is happening at all at this point, and if anything what data point we do have post November '16 would appear to indicate the opposite is occurring with a significant erosion of support among the most reliably Republican demographic, Anglo Senior Citizens sitting on some fairly comfortable assets when it comes to their retirement homes, that appear to be a bit upset at the Republican's attempt to gut "Obamacare" / Affordable Care Act.

I suspect we'll have a better clue on this come November 2018, which again should likely represent a much more favorable electorate for Republicans than a Presidential Election Year.

[NOVA Green]

If a Democratic Candidate wins Maricopa County by 4%, would that be enough to win the entire state in 2020?

Traditionally Maricopa County votes more Republican than all of the other counties in the State combined, and accounts for an overwhelming chunk of the total Arizona Voting population regardless of Primary, GE, Presidential/ off-year elections....

This is heavily caused by Pima County (Tucson and suburban/exurban/rural), as well as to some extent significant Native American and Rural Latino populations elsewhere in the State....

If a Democratic Candidate is winning Maricopa by 4%, they are likely winning a statewide election in Arizona by more like 6%..... (Ballpark math here off the top of my head).