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« on: November 29, 2017, 11:53:16 PM » |
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So, actually back to the subject at hand, which is the JMC poll of Alabama, as opposed to an individual poster who brought us the "West Virginia" is the redneck hateful Capitol of America posts not that long ago, who apparently needs to check with his shrink regarding "Alabama is the new West Virginia" memo, and arguably is derailing every thread on the topic, along with a handful of Moore supporters, and various Democratic avatars venting steam about Moore's predilection for Underage Girls....
This poll obviously has certain issues when it comes to both methodology and assumptions regarding the Alabama Electorate in the 2017 Alabama Special election..... The sample size is heavily weighted towards much older and Whiter voters than the statewide electorate as a whole, and I suspect much of that is because of the landline based polling model employed, where it appears that younger voters (18-35) appear as only 3% of the electorate, and over 50% of the electorate in all of their polls is 60+ years, where even according to their own poll Jones is carrying every single age bracket from 18-64....
Still, despite all of these flaws it does at least give us some data points to examine and measure against historical election results in 'Bama, even if we were to assume that their modeling of the 12/12/17 electorate is accurate in a poll conducted right after the Thanksgiving Holiday....
I have long complained about the lack of a regional breakdown in Alabama Senate polls, which might help give us a better idea of how the election might well play out, which is in a State similar to Ohio (But much smaller) where there are various large Metro Areas where a significant chunk of the voters are concentrated, as well as various rural and small town communities....
Ok---- so here is JMC's estimation of the electorate by Region within Alabama:
It actually pretty closely mirrors the 2016 breakdown by region, with the exception that Dothan is overpresented having only 3% of the statewide vote in '16 versus 5% in the JMC poll (Whatever, let's call it statistical noise around the margins)....
Now let's look at the JMC breakdown of regions (Which apparently is based upon Media markets identified from their business partner Nielsen). Here is their breakdown by County....
Now, the definitions of regions that they use is a bit diffuse, especially when one looks at the sprawling Birmingham Media Market/Region, where one must certainly wonder about why certain counties are included/excluded from various regions....
Still basically it breaks down into the following categories:
1.) Birmingham Region--- 40% of the statewide electorate
Needless to say it includes not only the overwhelmingly African-American and Democratic Cities of Birmingham and Bessemer, but also heavily White Middle and Upper-Middle Class suburbs and Exurbs of Jefferson, Shelby, St Clair, etc, stretches all the way up the "Outlaw Country" Moonshiner and Dope-Growing Country of NE 'Bama, includes Moore's old stomping grounds of Gadsen when he would troll for Teenage Girls as DA, wraps all the way West to include Tuscaloosa, and even grabs some counties from the "Black Belt" region of the State.
2.) Huntsville-- 20% of statewide electorate--- is a more classically defined region of the State, and despite the name of the largest City actually includes quite a few rural counties that used to be old "Southern Whig" Country at the time of the Civil War, and were some of the last holdouts of the "Yellow Dog White Democrats" in 'Bama, that weren't nearly as keen on segregation as many other Whites within 'Bama.
3.) Montgomery---19% of Statewide Electorate--- Basically this map includes much of the classic "Black Belt" region of 'Bama and perhaps is considered one of the least elastic parts of the State in terms of voting patterns, is part of the "Minority Central" region that the authors of Patchwork Nation identified shortly after the '08 elections.
4.) Mobile--- 15% of the Alabama electorate--- Includes a handful of Counties in SW 'Bama along the Gulf Coast, that perhaps has one of the highest Catholic populations within the State, combined with a mixture of Working-Class retirees from throughout the region and elsewhere.
5.) Dothan--- 3-5% of the electorate---- Basically consists of one of the Whitest Parts of 'Bama (Other than Northern 'Bama), and long considered to be the classic evangelical White stronghold of the State.
Here is a visual representation of the support for US Senate by "Region" based upon the JMC Poll....
Now lets look at the polling results and election History by Region:
1.) Birmingham--- "Metro Media Market"
So Doug Jones is actually performing as well as Al Gore here with one of the lowest % of undecideds in the State....
2.) Huntsville--- Metro Media Market
This is obviously a place where Jones needs to perform well, and even if we take this poll at face value with only 4% undecided, it's pretty clear that Jones will have brought back all of the Clinton/Gore Democrats in Northern 'Bama that just recently shifted 'Pub, and then some...
Wildcard isn't just the City of Huntsville and surrounding 'Burbs and 'Exurbs of Madison County, but places like Colbert, Jackson, and Lawrence County which Gore won in 2000.... Margins matter a hell of a lot here, and I suspect that Jones needs to win this part of the State in order to become the next US Senator from Alabama...
3.) Montgomery Media Market---
The most traditionally Democratic Part of 'Bama, and also the part of the state with the highest % of African-American voters....
Not only is this must win, but a part of the State where he has a chance to rack up some serious margins to offset loses elsewhere within the State....
According to JMC there are 7% undecideds here (One of the largest numbers within Alabama), that likely are heavily African-American, but still don't totally trust a White Democrat from Alabama, despite his positive endorsements....
4.) Mobile Media Market--- 15% of the Statewide Electorate:
This is perhaps the most perplexing of the Survey results....
We have a traditionally overwhelmingly Republican Part of the State, where Jones is + 7% in the polls with 8% undecided, where no National Democrat has been able to capture over 40% of the Vote since Jimmy Carter....
As I posted elsewhere, when looking a precinct level results for Mobile County, I suspect that this region of the State has a much larger White Catholic Vote than anywhere else in Alabama, not to mention the whole French-Canadian/ Cajun gig....
Maybe many of these voters are reacting differently to the Child Sexual Assault charges leveled against Jones than White Evangelical and Southern Baptists elsewhere in the State???
I do have some serious questions regarding the Mobile sample in question, since we have a decent explanation for why Northern 'Bama (Huntsville) is swinging hard towards Jones, we have yet to see a solid argument as to why Mobile Area is swinging hard towards Jones....
Ok---
Even if we take this poll at face value and the electorate will be overwhelmingly 65+ and much Whiter than the typical Alabama electorate, it really doesn't look like the "Good News" from scripture, Mark 1:14-15:
"After John was put in prison, Jesus went into Galilee, proclaiming the good news of God. 15 “The time has come,” he said. “The kingdom of God has come near. Repent and believe the good news!”
Last time I saw Moore has not yet repented for his actions....
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