How Did Division I-A College Football Cities Vote in 2016?

[NOVA Green]

Conf USA- West

Louisiana Tech

Ruston, Louisiana

Ok, now that we have the same day voting numbers corrected:

3,251 HRC (54.1%), 2,373 Trump (39.5%)            + 14.6% D

I woke up this morning still thinking about how to try to break down the 31.2% of the County Vote that was Early Votes, since not only is that a significant chunk of the voting population of the County, but the EVs were a bit more Republican than the County as a whole, which is interesting considering how EV in the South frequently tends to skew more Democratic than the ED votes in many places....

So, I decided that it might be possible to "reverse engineer" the numbers *IF* I could determine the actual total votes by precinct (ED +EV), and that maybe I hadn't fully explored the Lousiana SoS website or County website, or various other sources I have available where at least I might be able to obtain top level TV numbers by precinct that include both ED and EV.

Fortunately, buried within the LA-SoS Elections website was the resource that I was precisely looking for.... Total Vote numbers by precinct, not broken down by candidate nor race, so included some votes there for people that voted on election day, but simply declined to vote for US President....

1.) So if we look at the Total Votes in Lincoln County, we see that 5,977 individuals voted early....

If we break that down by Ruston vs Non Reston precincts, we see that 56.7% of the EV was cast in Ruston vs 43.3% in Non-Ruston Precincts.

2.) This creates a variance between the 5,810 EV + Provisional ballots.... Not having the ability to determine exactly where these variances occurred by precinct throughout the County, we see a total 97.2% of the EVs chose to vote for US President and 2.8% did not.

Ok--- This gives us a baseline number, so we can see that about 3,295 people voted early in Ruston, and 2,515 in other places within the County.

3.) Next step--- Now we know how many individuals voted early by precinct (Using the 97.2% multiplier) let's take that as a EV-TV number let's multiply that by the actual ED results for all 57 precincts to see what the numbers say, since we have identified precisely how many EV voters there were by precinct and we know exactly how these precincts voted on ED....

This model would indicate the following results:

Ruston: 1,632 HRC  (49.5% D), 1,448 Trump (43.9% R)           + 5.6% D
Non-Ruston: 698 HRC (27.8% D), 1,717 Trump (68.3% R)       + 40.5% R


So, interestingly enough it appears based upon the known missing votes by precinct, that HRC performed significantly better among EVs in rural and small town Lincoln County, and worse in the College town of Ruston!!!

4.) Next step is to compare the actual total EV numbers for the County versus the modelling numbers by missing votes for every precinct to see where the variances lie....

Actual EV numbers for the County:

2,217 HRC (38.1%), 3,432 Trump (59.1%)               + 21.0% R

Modeled EV numbers for the County based upon missing votes per precinct:

2,330 HRC (40.1%), 3,165 Trump (54.5%)              + 14.4% R

So OK, no surprises here HRC did worse in EV voting in the County at large than same day voting, but least it provided a control point to adjust the numbers versus the actual ED precinct numbers ...

5.) How to adjust the numbers to provide the best accurate estimation of EVs within Ruston, based upon a systematic scientific methodology?

So HRC received 118 less votes in the County than the model suggested, and Trump received 267 more votes than the model suggested....

So that accounts for a 385 vote Swing---- let's divide that by two for 193 Votes....

We know that 56.7% of the EVs were located in Ruston, so we have some movement on the margins with about 110 votes moving from HRC to Trump (Ballpark math here).

6.) Ok---- now let's adjust the model numbers to reflect the actual numbers for Ruston for EVs we see the following:

Ruston EV: 1,522 HRC (46.2%) , 1558 Trump (47.3%)        + 1.1 % R


7.) Estimated Total Results from Ruston, including both ED and EV:

Ruston- Election Day- 3,251 HRC (54.1%), 2,373 Trump (39.5%)
Ruston- Early Votes- 1,522 HRC (46.2%), 1,558 Trump (47.3%)


TOTAL RUSTON VOTES: 4,733 HRC  (50.8%),  3,931 (42.2%) Trump        + 8.6% D

I believe these are the best numbers available, and that the political scientific method is sound, but if anyone has better data, feel free to jump in and explain/discuss...

Unfortunately, at this point I haven't found a way to crack how the campus precincts voted here, but will try to take a look at it if possible....

[NOVA Green]

Sun Belt Conference:

University of Louisiana- Monroe

Monroe, Louisiana....

Same Day Votes: 13,205 HRC (60.1% D), 8,155 Trump (37.1% R)      +23.0% D

EV's plus a small numbers of Provos account account for 31.7% of the County Vote....

Used the same technique that I did with Ruston, LA to calculate the EV by precinct, and then look at the variance between the model numbers and EV numbers and shift voters over to the City to account for the variance in EV numbers...

Monroe, LA EV numbers:

4,808 HRC (46.0%), 4,994 Trump (47.7%)        + 1.7% R



TOTAL Monroe, LA election numbers (ED + EV Numbers)

18,013 HRC (55.6% D), 13,149 (40.6%)     Trump....         +15.0% D

So, this is a bit interesting....

Once again we see Early Votes favoring the 'Pubs in yet another City in the Deep South...

One must certainly wonder to what extent this is a variation from the norm, or that potentially for all of the MSM focus on early voting by African-Americans in the deep South, or simply yet another false narrative, based upon Presidential Election voting numbers from '08...

Once again, I don't have the ability to break down the data by College precincts, but it certainly appears that the 8th largest City in Louisiana voted for HRC by significant numbers....


Edit: I was able to locate precinct voting locations for Ouachita County, and the two precincts located on the Campus of the University of Louisiana- Monroe went same day voting:

479 HRC (68.2% D), 195 Trump (27.8% R)        + 40.4% D

There were an additional estimated 369 early votes cast on campus.

Note that ED support for HRC was higher on the University campus precincts than in the City at large.

Also, as a bit of an interesting side note, there are two precincts located on the LSU Agricultural Center in West Monroe that went:

250 HRC (73.3% D), 81 Trump (23.8% R)       + 49.5% D

There were an additional 77 Early Votes cast on these precincts....

Most of Trump's support in Ouachita County appears to have come from overwhelmingly Republican precincts in West Monroe, rather than the City of Monroe, nor campus populations here.

[NOVA Green]

The bottom line is it is impossible to know with certainty how undergrads voted.  Also, it is likely that at public colleges only the freshmen (maybe less likely to register on campus their freshman year) and a few students who are "in with the administration" like RAs and the like will live on campus.  Even still, it is impossible to square the precinct (13% Trump??) with the campus mock election (Trump +15 at a time when it did not look like he would win the election) and other general demographic trends (plus, I think we could all agree that there is no way a majority white group of students in the Deep South voted overwhelmingly Democratic).  It may be that there is selection bias or that others (a significant number of live-in faculty members?).  The bottom line is that the best we can do here is make educated guesses, and we have different starting points.

Also, didn't DDHQ or somewhere do an analysis of the neighborhoods of all FBS schools (this would account for a mix of undergrads, postgrads, faculty, staff, and academics) a month or so following the election?

Finally, what do you think about the issue of Nashville's boundaries, as I mentioned earlier?  Should we just take Davidson County, or should we exclude the semi-independent neighborhoods that vote for both their own mayors and the mayor of Nashville?

Sigh....

Extreme Republican--- Sometimes in the world of Political Science, it is less a question of trying to squeeze the foot into the shoe (Cinderella style metaphor) , versus trying to scientifically analyze the size of the shoe, and the size of the foot using height, width, and length dimensions....

Honestly, I do not care an elephants ass about some fake student election at LSU....

These are not official election results, as opposed to the actual election returns and results from overwhelmingly student precincts at LSU...

This is the 3rd time where once again you have made your spurious argument based solely upon your ideological paradigms and partisan belief structures from West Virginia to Jonesboro, to Baton Rouge, without yet providing a single shred of evidence to support your "theory".

I don't have an ax to grind on this, and don't even consider myself a Democrat.

What I am interested in and care about deeply, is transparency of election results, and objective discussions and analysis of the data, regardless of whatever "team" those results might benefit.

We don't have different starting points, since the math is the math, and the data is the data. Maybe what you refer to as different starting points assumes partisan and ideological bias?

Regarding Nashville, I would approach it in a classical style and say that precincts located within the City Limits of Nashville are the Votes from the City of Nashville....

I know there's some weird crap going around these days in various States, where essentially poorer and heavily minority Cities throughout the US are now essentially being annexed as part of "extra-jurisdictional" bodies as some type of fiscal power grab, but Nashville is Nashville, regardless of how the Unincorp areas and suburbs try to make it otherwise....

I think I made one exception to this rule regarding Athens, Georgia where the City became the County, but even there I threw some asterix's around it asking for a second opinion....

Anyways, hope you don't think I'm hitting at you at all----   at this point there is very little evidence to suggest any significant support for Trump in the overwhelming majority of I-A University campuses....

What might be interesting would be to see to what extent, how well Romney performed in '12 in many of these College/University towns....

[NOVA Green]

Sunbelt Conference:

University of Louisiana- LaFayette:

Lafayette, Louisiana:

ED including split precincts:

18,842 HRC (39.3%), 26,505 Trump (55.3%)         +16.0% R

If we exclude split precincts results look more like the following:

15,212 HRC (44.4% D), 17,022 Trump (49.7% R)    + 5.3 % R

So now lets run the numbers for the early vote, since we know exactly how many early votes there were by precinct to try to break down the numbers between the City and other communities in the County...

So out of the 18,793 Early Votes in the County, we can safely say that about 11,382 votes came from the City of Layfayette (Although only 95.4% of the voters in the County in the EV numbers actually voted for US PRES).

So if we were to model these numbers by the missing votes in the County by precinct, it looks like we have an additional 11,382 EVs from Lafayette...

Based upon the precinct modelling from same day voting these should break down to:

3,533 HRC (31.0%), 6,964 Trump (61.2%)            + 30.2% R

What are the likely totals for Lafayette?

ED: 18,842 HRC--- 26,505 Trump
EV: 3,533  HRC---   6,964 Trump

TOTAL: 22,375 HRC (37.7% D) , 33,469 (56.4% R) Trump          + 18.7% R

So, not a complete surprise considering that Fayetteville, which is the informal capitol of Cajun Country has shifted from being a generally Democratic leaning part of the State, and then a "swing district", and increasingly become a bit more Republican over the past decade or so....

Now, if we look at the college precincts right next to the University of Louisiana- LaFayette, we see roughly a 3:1 Democratic two Party breakdown....

Although the informal capitol of Cajun Country just recently shifted Republican at the Presidential level, it does not appear that these sentiments are mirrored by their children and grandchildren (Millennial Generation) at least in the age of Trump....

[NOVA Green]

Finally, what do you think about the issue of Nashville's boundaries, as I mentioned earlier?  Should we just take Davidson County, or should we exclude the semi-independent neighborhoods that vote for both their own mayors and the mayor of Nashville?

Hmm.... that's an interesting question.

My apologies for the delayed response on this question.

So for whatever reason, in many Southern precincts and parishes, it is not unusual to see a hybrid City-County mayor (Where typically my preference is to try to isolate the actual precinct results from the "City"), mainly because municipal results translate more easily into commonly defined US Census Bureau categories, so we can cross-reference the data against various objective statistical data points.

My thought would be to break it down (As best as possible) into a few different categories if possible as separate line items:

1.) Voters located solely 100% within precincts that vote exclusively for Mayor of Nashville. (Nashville proper ?)

2.) Split Precincts where part of the population votes for Mayor of Nashville, but in what many other states would be considered Unincorporated Communities (Hence not voting for "dual mayors" other than the "Mayor of Davidson County").

3.) Precincts that vote for both the Mayor of Nashville, as well as another recognized municipality other than "Mayor of Davidson County".

4.) Precincts where the only vote is for the "Mayor of Davidson County".

Honestly having not really looked at the way in which municipal government is structured in Davidson County, some of these categories might well be superfluous, but I think the better we can break results down by municipality/CDP etc, the easier it is to look at variable such as age/ethnicity/income/occupational Sectors, etc.....

[NOVA Green]

For what it's worth, I do think that the precinct numbers are somewhat valuable for the "academic culture" of the reason, so I decided to check out the Tennessee schools' (sticking to precincts that contain campus):

MTSU (precinct 17-1, though it includes some off-campus area):
2016-PRES: 52-40 Clinton
2014-GOV: 60-29 Haslam
2012-PRES: 53-45 Obama
2012-2016 Swing: D+4

ETSU (combining precincts 25 and 29):
2016-PRES: 53-40 Trump
2014-GOV: 65-24 Haslam
2012-PRES: 55-42 Romney
2012-2016 Swing: R+0
Precinct 29 is overwhelmingly Republican, while Precinct 25 is competitive, but it seems that the campus spills into both, while Precinct 25 includes a good amount of downtown, while 29 has some suburban areas.

UT-Knoxville (precincts 10S and 10W):
2016-PRES: 57-33 Clinton (it is worth noting that the vote total is comically low for a large university)
2014-GOV: 43-41 Brown (Brown takes it by 5 votes out of only 228- precinct 10W was literally 1-1)
2012-PRES: 59-37 Clinton
2012-2016 Swing: D+2

Memphis (precinct 46-2, includes some neighborhood areas, low vote total in 2012, better in 2016):
2016-PRES: 50-44 Clinton (technically a plurality of 49.66%)
2014-GOV: 48-35 Haslam (that 3rd party vote is crazy)
2012-PRES: 51-44 Obama
2012-2016 Swing: R+1

UT-Chattanooga (Courthouse 1), includes significantly more than just campus:
2016-PRES: 70-21 Clinton
2014-GOV: 45-42 Haslam
2012-PRES: 72-24 Obama
2012-16 Swing: D+1

Austin Peay (unfortunately, I don't know if we can get good numbers there because it is a largely white university that is located in a broader precinct that appears to be majority-minority)

UT-Martin (Martin precincts 5 and 7, includes the entire college town):
2016-PRES: 67-29 Trump
2014-GOV: 69-23 Haslam
2012-PRES: 67-31 Romney
2012-16 Swing: R+2

So, based on these numbers (even when adding in less elite schools) not adding up to what we saw for college-educated 18-29 voters even in 2012 (in fact, the average swing was less than a point between 2012 and 2016), I am willing to conclude that campus precincts are not a fair representation of the undergraduate student body, but may represent more the views of the academic culture (grad students, professors, administrators) or may just represent which party registered students to vote on campus.

Wow!!! Pretty cool research there----

So basically we know have a few more data points to examine from the Volunteer State, when it comes to the larger subject of how did College Students at larger and more prestigious State Universities vote (Although obviously the presence of a 1-A Football team represents just one section of the University student population).

Interestingly enough your precinct level data also showcases a theme that I have observed in many other States and regions, which is an extremely large 3rd Party Vote (Especially by Tennessee standard?).

Now regarding your theory that college precincts are not entirely representative of the Undergrad population, sure this is true. Undergrad voters are extremely difficult to isolate, and certainly "on-campus" housing isn't the only means to interpret the data.

Additionally, many students do vote via absentee ballot at their parent's address in different precincts, cities, states, etc....

Still, the "student ghettos" with extremely high percentages of individuals 18-21 on the edge of Universities is generally a good proxy estimate for the "off campus" undergrad population.

If you roll precinct numbers surrounding campus against census data looking at the 22-29 yr population will generally give one a decent number about the Grad Student vote....

As I mentioned previously, University Professors that have finally made it into the ranks of the Middle Class, but still relatively low-paid "knowledge sector workers", that would likely make twice the wages in the Private Sector, live much further off-campus.....

So let's just say, we need more data points to dissect this further, which was actually originally where I was planning on going with the thread after rolling up total numbers by City....

[NOVA Green]

I did check the campus precincts for Alabama and Auburn, and they both went for Trump by double digits and were more Republican than that downballot (AL gives data on straight-ticket voters, and they were roughly 2:1 GOP).  Maybe it's easier for more students to register on campus there compared to other states?  There is no reason that Alabama and Auburn would go for Trump comfortably while LSU wouldn't even give him one-in-seven votes.

Would be interesting in seeing your data from Auburn and Tuscaloosa, in terms of which individual precincts you are referring to....

Unfortunately election results from Alabama are much less transparent than those from many other States within the region.

[NOVA Green]

University of South Dakota

* Flagship University*

Vermillion, South Dakota:

HRC (57.8%), Trump (34.8%)         +23.0% D

[NOVA Green]

University of Montana:

* Flagship University*

Missoula, Montana

1.) Firstly I want to make a formal complaint to the Missoula County Elections division for engaging in the nefarious and dubious practice of engaging in an egregious level of "Split-Precintism".

2.) Although I have experience this phenomenon many times before, Missoula County takes it an egregious level, whereby 17/32 precincts that have boundaries that fall within City Limits are split precincts!

3.) This is a lazy and sloppy practice, and obviously enables the charlatans and scoundrels that inhabit this fine county, to continue to deliberately deceive and obfuscate, the finer details of what should be a relatively transparent and visible election reporting system.

4.) This is not my first run-in with Montana precinct level election results and municipalities within Big Sky country, and will likely not be my last.

5.) Although I get the reason why occasionally split precincts are necessary, particularly in cases where there is a significant amount of annexation to City Limits between redistricting periods, this takes it to a whole new level. I haven't tried to overlap school district boundaries with precinct boundaries, but I suspect that part of the reason for this shady phenomenon in Missoula has to do with school district related elections, which in my mind should be completely separated from municipal elections.

6.) I am sure that I am not alone, as many fellow posters on Atlas, Political Scientists, and thousands of of other Americans condemn this practice in the strongest terms!

Ok---- rant aside....

What do the numbers show?

Missoula, Montana  (Including Split Precincts)

24,930 HRC (58.9% D), 13,348 Trump (31.5%)             +27.4% D

Note: These are the "official numbers" that I will include in my spreadsheet as results from the City of Missoula.

Missoula, Montana (Excluding Split Precincts)

12,950 HRC (67.7% D), 4,111 Trump (21.5% R)            +46.2% D

University District Neighborhood: (Pop ~7k+)

68% of the population is in their '20s....

This includes three precincts w/o splits and very cleanly overlaps with US Census Tracts...

2,422 HRC (74.3% D), 503 Trump (15.4% R)               + 58.9% D

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- time to update the Flagship University City map and numbers....

So, also I decided to add in the 3rd Party combined vote by Flagship University City to see the extent to which voters in these college towns defected from the two major party candidates....

In five states thus far the combined 3rd Party vote exceeded the Republican candidates vote totals   (Berkeley, California--- Amherst, Massachusetts---- Salt Lake City, Utah---- Burlington, Vermont---- Seattle, Washington)

Additionally, I coded Gray Flagship University Cities where the combined 3rd Party vote exceeded 10% (Although I accidentally skipped Morgantown WV).... the list would look something like the following:

Fayetteville, Arkansas--- 10.1%
Moscow, Idaho--- 20.8% (!!!)
Lincoln, Nebraska-- 10.4%
Eugene, Oregon---  11.6%
Morgantown, West Virginia--- 11.1%
Laramie, Wyoming--- 17.3% (!!!)

Now Moscow and Laramie are likely partially explainable because they are part of two states that are at the heart of the "Mormon Belt", so a decent chunk of the 3rd Party defections went to McMullin, as well as your typical Johnson/Stein voters seen throughout most states.....

[NOVA Green]

Sun Belt Conference:

Georgia Southern University:

Statesboro, Georgia (Bulloch County):

5,287 HRC (52.9% D), 4,245 Trump (42.5% R)      + 10.4% D

So basically the City consists mainly of three precincts, with a small part of the City extending into two neighboring precincts, which I did not include in these numbers.

Most likely this wouldn't significantly change the overall numbers, since part of Statesboro Precinct which is included also has rural areas on the Western portion that likely voted Republican by significant margins, offsetting any potential improved Republican performance in the small slivers of the City included in Fair precinct and Hagin Precinct.

If anything Statesboro proper likely voted slightly more Democratic than the numbers above suggest.

How did the University area student vote go in '16?

Although there isn't a "University Precinct" per say, the campus falls heavily inside of the Pittman Park precinct in the South Central part of the City with Census block tracts with populations 80-90% 18-21 years old located on campus, and the neighboring Census Block tracts being roughly 80% 18-29 years old for off-campus student housing.

Also note, that the University precinct is only 25-35% African-American when looking at Census tract maps, versus 58% in the Statesboro precinct that falls within the City of Statesboro, on the Western/ Northwestern part of the City.

Pittman Park: University situated precinct:

1,944 HRC (59.2% D), 1,108 Trump (33.7% R)        + 25.5% D

[NOVA Green]

Atlantic Coastal Conference- Atlantic

Florida State University:

Tallahassee, Florida:

City without split precincts:

43,877 HRC (67.9% D), 17,002 Trump (26.3% R)           + 41.6% D

City only including split precincts:

26,440 HRC (61.4% D), 14,406 Trump (33.4% R)           + 28.0% D

City including both split precincts and city only precincts:

70,317 HRC (65.3% D), 31,408 Trump (29.2% R)            + 36.1% D

Since unfortunately there are so many split precincts we'll have to go with the combined number, although it likely slightly overstates the Republican percentage within the City (Areas outside of the City completely went (47.0% D and 48.5 % R)

Now what about the undergrad FSU vote on campus?

Precincts 2503, 1507, and 1314 are located on the FSU campus:

2,427 HRC (60.1% D), 1,367 Trump (33.9% R)                +26.7% D

If we look at several neighboring precincts with large numbers of undergrad students...

1301/1302: (66% D- 28% R)
1303/2502/2504 --- including the FSU football stadium-   (66% D- 25% R)
2506- (65% D- 26% R)

So interestingly enough it looks like the FSU "dorm vote" was slightly more Republican than the City at large, the "off campus" undergrad vote about as Democratic, but Trump performed worse, with significant 3rd Party defections....

Now, since Tallahassee is a major College/University town beyond just FSU, I would be remiss not to take a look at some other large educational facilities in the City.

Florida A & M University, one of the oldest historically African-American Universities in the US....

Precinct 1309 (Located on the campus of FAMU):

1,753 HRC (95.2% D), 33 Trump (1.8%), 55 Others (3.2%)....      + 93.4% D
Trump actually lost to combined 3rd Party voters here.

Precinct 1313: (Located directly adjacent to FAMU)

1,621 HRC (92.5% D), 81 Trump (4.6%)                                      +87.9% D


Now meanwhile down the Road to the West of FSU....

Tallahassee Community College:

Precincts 2305/2358:   (Located on the campus of TCC and adjoining neighborhoods)

3,511 HRC (74.6% D), 909 Trump (19.3% R)                              + 55.3% D

So the Community college vote appears to have gone not only to the Left of the FSU vote, but to the Left of the City of Tallahassee vote as a whole......

So I think this gives us a pretty good idea of the Millennial vote in Tallahassee, which is one of the largest student concentrations within Florida, not to mention compared to most other Cities in the US....

[NOVA Green]

Atlantic Coastal College- Coastal:

University of Miami:

Coral Gables, Florida:

15,875 HRC (56.3% D), 11,183 Trump (39.7% R)                + 16.6% D


What about the student precinct(s)?

Precinct # 640 located on the campus of University of Miami:

1,047 HRC (63.6% D), 531 Trump (32.3% R)                      + 31.3% D

Precinct # 612 located directly next to campus which is part of a census tract that is 88% 18-21 years old, and most of the remainder in their '20s....

568 HRC (61.8% D), 321 (34.9% R)                                   + 26.9% D

[NOVA Green]

Conference USA- East

Florida Atlantic University:

Boca Raton, Florida:


22,782 HRC (48.5% D), 22,769 Trump (48.4%)         + 0.1% D

So this is an interesting one, an although Boca Raton doesn't really fit the conventional definition of a "college" or "University Town", neither do some of the other cities that are home to Division I-A Football teams....

Actually looking at the numbers I really suspect that Boca Raton actually was likely a City that flipped from Romney '12 > HRC '16 and would likely fall on the list of "wealthier places that swung towards Clinton".... I'll probably take a look at those numbers at some point here. since I can pull a precinct report for all of Florida for 2012, but will still need to play around with the precinct changes between '12 and '16 for coding purposes....

Much of Boca Raton consists of upper-income White voters, and this number is likely understated when looking at the Median Household Income (MHI) for the City and various Census tracts, since retirees frequently have relatively modest incomes, even as they own Millions of dollars worth of property and assets, such as the expensive beach homes along the SE Coast of Palm Beach County.

Regardless, it's pretty clear that HRC only won Boca Raton because of the student vote....

University Campus Precinct.... (Located almost entirely on campus). 88% 18-21 Yrs Old

Precinct # 4166:

1,170 HRC (65.0% D), 558 Trump (31.0%)             + 34.0% D

Near campus in a Census Tract that is 60% 18-29 Yrs....

Precinct # 4188:

825 HRC (57.8% D), 549 Trump (38.4% R)             + 19.4% D

[NOVA Green]

Ok.... updated Chart....

Still missing:

Most of these are larger cities where amalgamating precinct level results can frequently be a bit more of a headache for various reasons (Although there are many times I have spent as long dealing with relatively small cities because of various other complicating factors when it comes to precinct coding by municipality....

Arizona: Tucson & Tempe
Texas: Austin, Waco, Dallas, Houston, Denton, San Antonio, San Marcos
New Mexico: Albuquerque
Nevada: Las Vegas
Hawaii: Honolulu
Florida: Tampa, Orlando
Tennessee: Memphis, Mursfreesboro, Nashville
Kentucky: Louisville, Lexington
Georgia: Atlanta
Virginia: Blacksburg
North Carolina: Charlotte
Alabama: Birmingham, Mobile
Indiana: South Bend
South Carolina: Conway

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- since I just bought a new PC yesterday, which is significantly faster than the old "pea-brained dinosaur" kid computer I have been using for the past year plus to run data, I decided to grab a comprehensive '16 GE precinct level data set for Florida yesterday, and then today decided to grab a '16 GE data set for Tennessee....

Fortunately in the case of the former the SoS office was happy to provide, in the case of the latter had to spend about 15 minutes copying massive lines of CSV data to the point my index finger was getting numb, before I could convert select files into an Excel based format, let alone do all of the precinct level coding for individual counties that I am looking at....

So Tennessee has been in the National political news a lot lately what with the Corker retirement and Corker-Trump feud, not to mention a failed attempted White Supremacist march through the streets of Murfreesboro, Tennessee that was cancelled before it even happened, because local folks weren't too crazy about that crap...

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/28/us/tennessee-white-nationalist-rally-shelbyville-murfreesboro/index.html

So, while I was trying to pull up the precinct results for Rutherford County, Tennessee (Murfreesboro), I was wondering what their strategic angle was here....

My assumption is that the alt.right activists that are currently effectively in a leadership role, by virtue of "mainstreaming" certain concepts to the largest current generation of Americans (Millennials) were hoping for a compare and contrast moment where they might meet a different reaction from a relatively Conservative Trump University County in Tennessee compared to an extremely Liberal college University town in Charlottesville, to see if they would get a different reaction....

Well, apparently they did pull out of the rally, so my assumption is that the test failed....

Still, let's see what the actual election numbers look like from Murfreesboro----

This was an extremely frustrating endeavor trying to code precincts by municipality, plus various places that appeared as split precincts, so will post the precinct numbers that I coded for a peer review, for others to examine in case I accidentally miscoded precincts....

Conference USA- EAST

Middle State Tennessee University:

Murfreesboro, Tennessee:

So I coded the following precincts as Non-Split precincts: (4-2; 14-1; 15-1; 15-2; 16-1; 16-2; 17-1; 17-2; 17-3; 18-1; 21-1; 21-2)

9,562 HRC (43.5% D), 11,022 Trump (50.2% R)             + 6.7% R

Coded the following as Murfreesboro Split Precincts (7-2, 13-1, 14-2, 16-3, 18-2, 20-2)

5,602 HRC (32.9% D), 10,543 Trump (62.0% R)             + 29.1% R

If we were to combine the precincts within the City with split precincts we would likely see something like the following:

Murfreesboro (City + Split)

15,164 HRC (38.9% D), 21,565 Trump (55.3% R)           + 16.4% R

I suspect that likely the overall City numbers would likely equate to a 10-12% Trump win, assuming I coded my precincts correctly.... Looking forward to any Tennessee Volunteers (Or from anywhere else for that matter to jump in and take a look at the numbers in greater detail.....)

So one thing that is really interesting about Rutherford County, TN is that the Democratic voting base isn't as big in the University town as it is in the fast growing Nashville Exurbs of La Vergne, where I think HRC won by a decent margin in '16....

Meanwhile, how are the College Students voting at Middle Tennessee State University?

We have two precincts located basically on the MTSU Campus....

Precinct 17-1:

971 HRC (51.7% D), 743 Trump ( 39.6%)            + 12.1% D

Precinct 17-3:

150 HRC (67.3% D), 45 Trump (20.2%)               +57.1% D

[NOVA Green]

Annapolis voted for Trump while Anne Arundel County went for Clinton? I never would've guessed that

Well Annapolis is likely in need of a more detailed examination....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5864192#msg5864192

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5865137#msg5865137

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2155202#msg2155202

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2156150#msg2156150

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2156167#msg2156167

So, it appears that Annapolis is one of those Cities where it is difficult to dissect the actual vote within the City from the rest of the County because of sloppy election reporting....

EV tends to heavily favor Dems in Anne Arundel County, but without being about to crack the numbers down to individual precinct/municipal level we're shooting darts at the board blind....

I suspect that there might be a way to reverse engineer the numbers if we can determine the ED/EV vote down to a precinct level, and if not at least look at swings by precinct and RV vs actual voters to at least be able to recreate a "missing vote by precinct" math equation for modelling purposes....

[NOVA Green]

SEC- EAST

Vanderbilt University:

Nashville, Tennessee:

138,931 HRC (60.9% D), 75,853 Trump (33.3% R)             + 27.6% D

Ok---- Nashville was initially tricky because of whole Joint City-Davidson County mayoral jurisdiction thing, which I'm not used to....

So I defaulted to what is now considered to be the standard municipal boundaries of the City of Nashville, that essentially includes the entire County, with the exception of six municipalities: (Ridgetop, Goodlettsville, Berry Hill, Belle Meade, Oak Hill, and Forest Hills)....

I backed out the the results from these places from the total County vote total, as well as the 6.5k absentee votes not coded by precinct, and the 1.3k Write-In votes coded to minor party write-in candidates....

If rural and Uninc parts of Davidson County want to be part of the City of Nashville, so be it, and good for them. since it gives them access to resources that would otherwise would not be available, and also helps support the tax base of the City....

Obviously Nashville is a heck of a lot more than just Vanderbilt, and overall the Metro area is now some 1.6 Million people, and the largest in the State, with about 600k residing within the municipal boundaries of Nashville....

Ok, how did Vanderbilt Student Precincts Vote?

Vanderbilt University Campus:

Precinct 18-01:

113 HRC (83.7% D)-----    12 Trump (8.9% R)     +74.8% D

Ok---- apparently the vast majority of students don't live in on campus dorms....

So where is the student off-campus housing?

Precinct 21-11: (90% 18-21 Yrs) roughly located with the River to North, Ed Temple Blvd to the East, Albion St to the South and 39th Ave N to the West:

1,254 HRC (97.1% D), 15 Trump (1.2%), Others (1.7%)                   + 95.9% D

Ok---- so these numbers were a bit astounding and we look at Census Tract Tract 013602 and see that it is 77% African-American and 17% White... compare that against the overall undergraduate admission and State enrollment numbers....

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#undergradstudentpopulation

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#enrollmentbystate


Precinct 21-4: (80% 18-19 yrs)   Located with Hinkle Drive to the East, West End Avenue to the South, I-40 to the West, and Charlotte Pike to the North.

Appears to be about 85%+ White:

932 HRC (62.1% D), 412 Trump (27.4% R)                              + 34,7% D

Precinct 21-3: located with I-40 W to the North , 18th- 20th Ave to the East, Charlotte Pike to the South, and I-40 to the West....

Appears to be about 62% White and 19% African-American....

892 HRC (89.0% HRC), 62 Trump (6.2% R)                             + 82.8% D


So what I suspect that we are seeing is that many of the White College students at Vanderbilt come from out of State, and out of region, and vote absentee in their home states (As I did as an undergrad a few decades back going to College in other State)....

Still it's pretty clear that White Students at Vanderbilt voted to the Left of the City as a whole, and significantly more Democratic than both the White population within the City, Tennessee, and Whites within the United States of America....

Overall students at Vanderbilt most likely voted more Democratic than in any other SEC-EAST campus, other than the University of Georgia, or possibly the University of Florida....

[NOVA Green]

American Athletic Conference- West

University of Memphis:

Memphis, Tennessee:

157,530 HRC (75.3% D), 44,639 (21.3% R)                               + 74.0% D

So, now we need to look at the "Student Precincts" around the University of Memphis....

These would include precincts 57, 46-2, 67-1, 67-3, 58-1, 68-3

Now the interesting thing about the East Memphis-Colonial-Yorkshire precincts here is that there is fairly old and White population within these Census tracts.... Only about 50% within core census tracts are 18-21 year students....

If we combine the overall numbers for the "core" campus precincts we see the following:

6,037 HRC (45.4% D), 6,474 Trump (48.6% R)                      + 3.2% R

Not familiar at all with the University of Memphis and to what extent it is a commuter school, but this University actually raises more questions than answers....

Maybe someone has more detailed information to contribute?

[NOVA Green]

PAC 12 South:

University of Arizona:

Tucson Arizona:

Tucson (Without Split Precincts)

97,403 HRC (62.2% D), 47,376 Trump (30.3% R)                         + 31.9% D

Tucson (Only Split Precincts)

28,567 HRC (54.8% D), 19,946 Trump (38.3% R)                         + 16.5% D

Total Tucson:  (including both precincts solely within City limits and split precincts that include a part of the City, as unincorporated areas outside)...

125,970 HRC (60.4% D), 67,322 (32.3% R)                              + 28.1% D


Now these numbers likely slightly overstate the Republican share of the total vote and understate the Democratic share, since many of these precincts contain relatively small slivers of Tucson and much larger chunks of suburban type housing outside of the City...

Still, it would only make a small difference on the margins regardless, and since we're not have a discussion about "Who won Tucson Arizona", I don't feel like going through the extensive effort involved to create precinct level modelling to figure out the "exact" estimated percentages....


What about the Student Precinct(s)?

Precinct # 62: University of Arizona Campus--- "Dorm Vote plus a bit of off-campus"

(Speedway Blvd to the North, N. Campbell Ave to the East, E Broadway Blvd to the South, N. Euclid Ave to the West):

896 HRC (74.2% D), 193 Trump (16.0% R)              + 58.2%   D

Precinct # 42: Located North of Speedway  "North University Neighborhood".... Combined 80% 18-29 population:

1,775 HRC (74.8% D), 385 Trump (16.2%)              + 58.6 % D

Precinct # 44: "West University Neighborhood"

1,092 HRC (76.8% D), 204 Trump (14.3% R)           + 62.5 % D

So what's interesting here is that a heavily Anglo undergraduate student body voted so significantly to the "Left" of the City of Tucson, which after all in many ways is considered to be a Minority, but plurality South West Anglo City, which is after all over 40% Latino....

Considering that many of these student voters are home-state residents, who will likely stick around in Arinzona, not to mention California Expat college kids that will likely stay in the region to obtain knowledge sector jobs in a pretty dynamic and versatile statewide economy, these numbers don't look good for the future of Republican dominance in Arizona, that is increasingly dependent upon a fading generation of Southern California retirees as their key electoral base within the State.

[NOVA Green]

SEC- EAST

Vanderbilt University:

Nashville, Tennessee:

138,931 HRC (60.9% D), 75,853 Trump (33.3% R)             + 27.6% D

Ok---- Nashville was initially tricky because of whole Joint City-Davidson County mayoral jurisdiction thing, which I'm not used to....

So I defaulted to what is now considered to be the standard municipal boundaries of the City of Nashville, that essentially includes the entire County, with the exception of six municipalities: (Ridgetop, Goodlettsville, Berry Hill, Belle Meade, Oak Hill, and Forest Hills)....

I backed out the the results from these places from the total County vote total, as well as the 6.5k absentee votes not coded by precinct, and the 1.3k Write-In votes coded to minor party write-in candidates....

If rural and Uninc parts of Davidson County want to be part of the City of Nashville, so be it, and good for them. since it gives them access to resources that would otherwise would not be available, and also helps support the tax base of the City....

Obviously Nashville is a heck of a lot more than just Vanderbilt, and overall the Metro area is now some 1.6 Million people, and the largest in the State, with about 600k residing within the municipal boundaries of Nashville....

Ok, how did Vanderbilt Student Precincts Vote?

Vanderbilt University Campus:

Precinct 18-01:

113 HRC (83.7% D)-----    12 Trump (8.9% R)     +74.8% D

Ok---- apparently the vast majority of students don't live in on campus dorms....

So where is the student off-campus housing?

Precinct 21-11: (90% 18-21 Yrs) roughly located with the River to North, Ed Temple Blvd to the East, Albion St to the South and 39th Ave N to the West:

1,254 HRC (97.1% D), 15 Trump (1.2%), Others (1.7%)                   + 95.9% D

Ok---- so these numbers were a bit astounding and we look at Census Tract Tract 013602 and see that it is 77% African-American and 17% White... compare that against the overall undergraduate admission and State enrollment numbers....

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#undergradstudentpopulation

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#enrollmentbystate


Precinct 21-4: (80% 18-19 yrs)   Located with Hinkle Drive to the East, West End Avenue to the South, I-40 to the West, and Charlotte Pike to the North.

Appears to be about 85%+ White:

932 HRC (62.1% D), 412 Trump (27.4% R)                              + 34,7% D

Precinct 21-3: located with I-40 W to the North , 18th- 20th Ave to the East, Charlotte Pike to the South, and I-40 to the West....

Appears to be about 62% White and 19% African-American....

892 HRC (89.0% HRC), 62 Trump (6.2% R)                             + 82.8% D


So what I suspect that we are seeing is that many of the White College students at Vanderbilt come from out of State, and out of region, and vote absentee in their home states (As I did as an undergrad a few decades back going to College in other State)....

Still it's pretty clear that White Students at Vanderbilt voted to the Left of the City as a whole, and significantly more Democratic than both the White population within the City, Tennessee, and Whites within the United States of America....

Overall students at Vanderbilt most likely voted more Democratic than in any other SEC-EAST campus, other than the University of Georgia, or possibly the University of Florida....

Actually, over 95% of Vandy students live on campus.  The only explanation for precinct 18-01 is that very few actually vote at their precinct address (it's worth noting that TN requires a TN ID or a US Passport (which legally also means that you can't drive on an out-of-state license).  Plus, there are a significant number of live-in faculty members on Vandy's campus that would likely vote in precinct 18-01 as well (it also includes some areas to the west of campus).

Vandy is also the exact sort of campus that someone like Rubio would have done significantly better than Trump.  I would guess that Vandy was probably about 55-30 Clinton with a strong third party vote this year.  But, Rubio might have won undergraduates.

Several items here---

1.) I have some serious questions about the statement regarding 95% of Vandy students living on-campus....

If that is the case, then why is precinct 21-11 about 90% 18-21???

Why is precinct 21-4 80% 18-29 years old?

Precinct 21-3 also appears to be a heavily Vandy University precinct as well...

2.) So the total student enrollment of Vanderbilt University in Nashville is 12.7k (2014 numbers)....

This would mean that ~ 12k students would be residing in "On Campus: housing" to meet the 95% criteria....

The numbers appear to show maybe 25-30% of the student population living within the Census tracts that are part of the "Dorm Vote"

So where is the gap?

Now, Vanderbilt appears to be split roughly 50-50 between a Undergrad and Grad Student population (Well befitting of an academic institution of this caliber)....

3.) So is precinct 21-11 predominately "townies" that work service level jobs at the University, despite an overwhelmingly African-American 18-29 Yr demographic within the Census tract?

4.) Why is precinct 21-4 that is 85% White and 80% younger voters 62 D- 27 R?

5.) I get the concept that potentially Grad students at Vanderbilt might vote more heavily Democratic than the overall Undergrad population, but at this point I haven't seen any evidence to show that this is the case....

6.) This is your neighborhood, so my apologies for asking logical questions based upon the precinct level data, and Census data that we have publicly available...

My goal with starting this thread was always intended as a subject of rigorous Political Science academic debate and discussion, since I have no real ax to grind nor hidden agenda in my endeavors to contribute to the overall Political Science "Body of Knowledge" when it comes to discussion and analysis where precinct level data is frequently overshadowed by a much lazier approach which is simply looking at County level swings, ignoring the communities that make up all of the counties of our Great Nation....

7.) Not sure if you have ever played Tennis much (joke), but actually really curious about your insights into Vanderbilt and Nashville...

Personally, you are one of my favorite posters from Tennessee on Atlas when it comes to election result related discussions regarding the Volunteer State, especially when it comes down to drilling into County/Municipal/Regional related items....

8.) OT--- Personally as a decades long fan of the "Outlaw Country" sound, would love to take a vacation for a week with my wife in Nashville and check out the City and the gigs, not to mention a side trip to the Waylon and Willie Museum....

[NOVA Green]

University of Alaska - Fairbanks isn't actually in Fairbanks (rather, it is in College, Alaska).

College, Alaska CDP (no postal vote)
Trump - 1,539 (45.6%)
Clinton - 1,395 (41.3%)

Excellent work as always reagente when it comes to pulling up precinct level data by municipality!

So I think this not only should be considered "official results" for the Flagship University question the nclib brought up, but additionally potentially the results from the "Dorm Vote" combined with neighboring off-campus precincts that include a significant number of 18-29 year old population that are students and Grad Students of the University....

Either way, will up to the spreadsheet to consider this the official results from the municipality in which the University is located, and maybe a bit later try to add the data to a separate spreadsheet that I just started developing regarding votes in student precincts ("Dorm Votes" and "Off Campus Votes", which was always my intention when I first started this thread....

Obviously cities like LA, Houston, Atlanta, Memphis, etc are not the best representation of the University Vote within these large cities and communities, let alone more obscure places such as Boise, Salt Lake City, Lincoln, Buffalo, etc....

What I was thinking would be an interesting 3rd Wave of the project

Wave 1.) City results by I-A Division Teams

Wave 2.) Precinct Level results for the Dorm and Off-Campus University Districts

Wave 3.) Comparing and contrasting vote patterns and overall turnout levels in '08/'12/'16 to see if there were increases/decreases in total student vote, shifts between support for the two major political parties, as well as the segment of 3rd Party Votes in '16, which in many parts of the Country appears to be very high compared to any election over the past few decades....

[NOVA Green]

Annapolis voted for Trump while Anne Arundel County went for Clinton? I never would've guessed that

Well Annapolis is likely in need of a more detailed examination....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5864192#msg5864192

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5865137#msg5865137

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2155202#msg2155202

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2156150#msg2156150

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2156167#msg2156167

So, it appears that Annapolis is one of those Cities where it is difficult to dissect the actual vote within the City from the rest of the County because of sloppy election reporting....

EV tends to heavily favor Dems in Anne Arundel County, but without being about to crack the numbers down to individual precinct/municipal level we're shooting darts at the board blind....

I suspect that there might be a way to reverse engineer the numbers if we can determine the ED/EV vote down to a precinct level, and if not at least look at swings by precinct and RV vs actual voters to at least be able to recreate a "missing vote by precinct" math equation for modelling purposes....

I might be missing something, but isn't every precinct in Annapolis Democratic? Where's this Annapolis voted Republican coming from?

Apologies for the delayed response on this question.... upgraded my laptop last weekend and had files scattered everywhere, including my precinct file from Anne Arundel County...

So, I believe that the precinct numbers that I pulled were from the MD Secretary of State Election website, that excluded a major chunk of the population that voted absentee or early voters....

I suspect that the variance might potentially be from different data sets that you have pulled that show a final vote by precinct, including EVs and Absentees, versus the numbers that I pulled....

Now, do you have a list of precincts that fall solely and/or partially within the City of Annapolis in 2016?

It does seem counter-intuitive that Annapolis voted 'Pub in '16, when the overall County flipped, but still East Shore Maryland precincts in the County swung towards Trump, while Baltimore and DC upper-income Exurbs swung towards HRC....

It appears that Anne Arundel County has some historic issues over the past decade or so when it comes to transparent election reporting, so if you could shed more light on the subject, that would be much appreciated....

[NOVA Green]

PAC 12 SOUTH:

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY:

TEMPE, ARIZONA:

37,240 HRC (57.6% D), 21,085 (32.6%)      + 25.0% D

How did the students vote???

We have a few precincts located on-campus, as well as quite a few off-campus with a high percentage of College students...

Precinct 312: "Hudson"

1,275 HRC (67.0% D), 409 Trump (21.5% R)          + 45.5% D

Precinct 642: Tempe:


335 HRC (59.2% D), 181 Trump (32.0%)                +27.2% D

So what's happening in off-campus student ghetto precincts???

Precinct 323: Jentilly:

1,334 HRC (60.8% D), 619 TRUMP (28.2%)            + 32.6% D

Precinct 416: Mitchell Park:

1,086 HRC (72.8% D), 244 Trump (16.4% R)          + 56.4 % D

So even though we might have a few split precincts here and there in Tempe and Phoenix, Tempe not only went (58-33 D) in '16, but also additionally exceeded the numbers from Phoenix (53-39 D)

Trump appears to have has lost by even more significant margins among the heavily Anglo student population at ASU....

One must wonder to what extent the SoCal aging retirees in places like Mesa that vote in precincts named "Gene Autrey", "Longbow", "Old West", and "Tonto", will continue to be a significant segment of the Metro Phoenix electorate 10-15 years from now....

Mesa voted only (53-37 R)     + 16 % R in '16.... Not good numbers for the 'Pubs even there....

[NOVA Green]

Grand Forks, North Dakota:
Trump - 11,759 (50.6%)
Clinton - 9,007 (38.8%)

Precincts "Alerus 05" and "ICON Arena/Park District Office 04" were split between Grand Forks and what seems to be unincorporated Grand Forks County, but the vast majority of the population is in Grand Forks proper, so I've included it here.

Looks about like the numbers that I saw running the precinct data from Grand Forks a month back, and you've obviously spent a bit more time doing a comprehensive examination, so unless anyone else has better numbers, this should likely be considered the "official results" from Grand Forks, without going insane into division of votes from a split precinct....

Curious about Grand Forks results from '08/'12 since it looks like Trump numbers were pretty week here, regardless of Clinton bombing in '16....