How Did Division I-A College Football Cities Vote in 2016?

[NOVA Green]

SEC-East

University of Georgia:

Athens, Georgia....

29.603 HRC (65.1% D), 12,717 Trump (28.0% R)      + 37.1% D

Spent over 30 minutes mucking around with Athens and precinct results from Clarke County, only to discover that the City and County are now one political entity !!!???

Unless anyone can tell me otherwise, at this point I will assume the City results equal the County results....

Not quite but very close.

From Wiki:

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Athens has 98.9% of the population of Clarke County.

Good catch ncLib.... I'll need to back out a few precincts to make the numbers aligned with the "City/County" of Athens....   

[NOVA Green]

Big 12 Conference:

Baylor University:

Waco, Texas:

2016:

Waco without split precincts:

14,251 HRC (48.2% D), 13,319 Trump (45.1% R)              + 3.1% D

Waco split precincts only:

3,277 HRC (31.6% D), 6,450 Trump (62.2% R)                 +30.6% R

Total Waco including split precincts:

17,528 HRC (43.9% D), 19,769 Trump (49.5% R)             + 5.6% R

So how about these  eight split precincts?

Precincts 13, 16, 17, 51, 57, 60, 62, 83....

Precinct 13 had only 69 voters, so whatever....

Precinct 16 had 367 voters, but appears to be overwhelmingly located within the City of Robison.

Precinct 17 had 504 voters, of whom the vast majority appear to be within the City of Waco, with an unincorporated industrial zone appearing as a hole in the middle of the precinct...

Precinct 51 had 2,808 total Voters, which is most likely overwhelmingly located within the City of Waco.

Precinct 57 had 519 total Voters, and eyeballing it appears to be roughly 50% Waco and 50% Robison...

Precinct 60 had 2,863 total voters, and appears to be heavily concentrated in the City of Robison...

Precinct 62 had 2,874 total voters and is overwhelmingly concentrated in the City of Hewitt

Precinct 83 had 360 total Voters and includes one small sliver of Waco, but appears to be an overwhelmingly rural/Uninc precinct....

My thought is that we need to back out precincts 16,60, 62, and 83 since the vast majority of these voters reside outside of Waco City limits...

So now we see something like the following:

Waco 2016:

15,662 HRC (46.8% D), 15,559 Trump (46.5% R)             + 0.3% D

So, at this point I can't definitively state that HRC won Waco, considering that even in the split precincts excluded there were likely enough votes within the Waco sections of the precincts to eke out an extremely narrow Republican win....

Still, since I lived in Texas for awhile, and after all there are only 91 precincts in the County, figured I may as well take a look at the 2012 results by precinct for McLellan County...

Waco 2012:

Non-Split Precincts:

12,764 Obama (48.0% D), 13,500 Romney (50.7% R)         + 2.7% R   ( +5.8% D Swing '12>'16)

Split Precincts (Minus 16, 60,62, 83)

1,236 Obama (33.5% D), 2,070 (56.1% R) Romney               + 22.6% R (+ 1.4% D Swing '12>'16)

TOTAL WACO:

14,000 Obama (46.2% D), 15,570 (51.4% R) Romney     + 5.2% R   (+5.5% D Swing '12>'16)

So what happened in the University Precincts around Baylor???

Precinct #3 (Baylor University Dorms and a few surrounding Undergrad 'hoods)

2012: 496 Obama (42.6% D), 631 Romney (54.2% R)           + 11.6% R
2016: 681 HRC (51.7% D), 421 Trump (32.0% R)                  +19.7% D  (+ 31.3% D Swing)

WOW!!! Honestly this was a bit unexpected, since although I figured Baylor went 'Pub in '12, was not expecting to see such dramatic swings in only four years...

Lets now look at a few "off-campus" precincts with an extremely high percentage of Undergrads...

Precincts 18, 20. and 21 contain an extremely high percentage of Undergrad Students (Although there are a few precincts that could be included as well...

2016: 473 HRC (56.7% D), 259 (31.1% R) Trump                       + 25.6% D
2012: 321 Obama (50.2% D), 299 (46.8% R) Romney                 + 3.4% D   (+22.2% D Swing)

Since I took a bit of time working on Waco Election results....

Overwhelmingly African-American precincts (Precinct 12 & 14)

2016: 2,235 Total Votes

2,028 HRC (91.1% D), 154 Trump  (6.9% R)           + 84.2% D

2012: 2,521 Total Votes

2,412 Obama (95.7% D), 105 (4.2% R) Romney      +91.5% D   (+7.3% R Swing)

So it appears that there was significantly decrease in voter turnout among African Americans in Waco, that likely allowed Waco to remain Republican in '16, albeit narrowly....

What about heavily Latino precincts in Waco that represent about 30% of the City population?

This gets a bit trickier since the Latino population in Waco isn't as heavily concentrated geographically as the African-American population...

Still the following precincts appear to overlap with Census tracts that are roughly 80% plus Latino...

There are likely a few others not on the list below, but at least it gives us enough of a baseline to see how the "Latino Surge" played in Waco, Texas....

(1,2,4,5, 6, 25)

2016: 1,844 Total Votes: 1,216 HRC (65.9% D) , 515  Trump  (27.9% R)       + 38.0% D
2012: 1,621 Total Votes: 1,109 Obama (68.4% D) , 499 Romney (30.8% R)   +37.6% D  (+0.4% D Swing)

So, these are heavily working class Mexican-American precincts that tend to vote much more heavily than Middle-Class and Upper Middle-Class Latinos in Texas, but it doesn't appear that this moved the dial very much in Waco....

Now how about those upper-income College educated White voters???

Well we only have a few of these floating around in the City of Waco, but they tend to be most heavily concentrated around the edges of Lake Waco (Which like most lakes in Texas was built during the Great Depression as part of both an employment related gig, while at the same time creating water storage areas to support growing populations in Metro areas of Texas)

Precinct # 33 perhaps is most representative of this community within Waco.... Located on the Western edge of Lake Waco, the MHI of $ 72.5k/Yr makes it one of the wealthiest precincts in terms of household income located fully within City limits....

It's also 86% Anglo, with 39% having a College Plus Degree, with 15.7% of the workforce having Management listed occupations....

2016: 1,074 Total Votes

347 HRC (32.3% D), 660 Trump (61.5% R)      + 29.2% R

2012: 1,088 Total Votes

310 Obama (28.5% D) , 763 (70.1% R) Romney   + 41.6% R    (+12.4% D Swing)

So there are a few other such precincts in Waco where we see similar results for example (Precinct 52--- 72-27 Romney shifted to 63-32 Trump)

So in Waco we have perhaps one of the most dramatic swings among student voting populations of any Division I-A football City covered thus far....

Any fellow residents or scholars  from Texas out there that can explain why Baylor University precincts swung so dramatically between '12 and '16?

[NOVA Green]

Since Alabama is getting so much attention these days, and I still have a few Football Universities to work through down there, decided it would be appropriate to check up on the numbers for the 3rd largest City in the State, Mobile--- Alabama.

Sun Belt Conference:

University of South Alabama:

Mobile, Alabama:

2016 Mobile without Split Precincts:

41,208 HRC (57.8% D), 28,111 Trump (39.4% R)                         + 18.4% D

2016 Mobile Split Precincts:

4,899 HRC (43.1% D), 6,174 Trump (54.3% R)                             + 11.2% R

Mobile TOTAL:

46,107 HRC (55.8% D), 34,285 Trump (41.5% R)                         + 14.3% D

These numbers probably overstate Republican Pres performance in Mobile in '16, since the split precincts tend to more located in unincorporated areas than within the City proper....

Additionally we have some 5,625 absentee ballots not broken down by precinct that went 45.7% D- 51.8% R....   Although we don't have an easy mechanism to determine where exactly these votes came from, it is most likely the bulk of these Democratic votes came from Mobile or areas just North of the City such as Prichard and Chickasaw...

Overall Republican strength in the County appears to mainly come from small town and rural areas in the Northern and Southern parts of the County, Cities like Saraland, Satsuma, and Semmes, as well as exurban heavily White Republican precincts West of the City out by areas West of Cody/ Stolle Road floating along Airport Blvd, Jeff Hamilton Blvd, Dawes, Old Pascagoula Rd, etc....

What about the University of South Alabama Precincts?

Precinct 38: Located mainly on the University Campus

1905 Total Votes:

1,320 HRC (69.3% D), 544 Trump (28.6% R)                 + 40.7% D

Precinct 37: Located directly West of Campus with a high percentage of 18/19 as well as those in their '20s.

1,414 Total Votes:

1,201 HRC (84.9% D), 194 Trump (13.7% R)                + 71.2% D

The campus precinct appears to be heavily White, and the "off-campus" precinct appears to be majority African-American.... either way it looks like University of South Alabama students tend to be heavily Democratic, even White Undergrads living on-campus....

Now, I would be remiss not to pull up a few more places in Mobile where there are significant academic institutions....

Spring Hill College: A Private Catholic Jesuit school, the first Catholic College in the South, and fifth oldest Catholic College in the United States....

There is a whole fascinating backstory here when it comes to the Civil Rights movement era where students chased the KKK off-campus that attempted to storm the campus back in January 21st and 22nd 1957, because it was a Co-Ed institution that in '54 accepted African-American students into all Departments, a few years before the Brown vs Board of Education Supreme Court ruling...

Also, for any JFK conspiracy theorists out there, Lee Harvey Oswald spoke at the College only a dew months before the Kennedy Assassination....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_Hill_College

Precinct 40: 1,792 Total Votes:

375 HRC (20.9% D), 1,354 Trump (75.6% R)             + 54.7% R

Wow--- what a difference 59 years make....

Also, I tried to pull up precinct numbers for the Bishop State Community College, but because on top of being more of a "commuter college", it also has something like four different campuses within the Mobile area, so there isn't really a concentration of College students around any one location....

For what it's worth, Precinct # 27 is located at the Bishop State Community College campus, a few blocks off of MLK and Broad Street, but honestly I'm not sure that this precinct really contains a ton of Millennial College Students because of its location....

Precinct #27:

1,169 Total Votes: 1,041 HRC (89.1% D), 107 Trump (9.2% R)                 + 79.9% D

Although it wouldn't surprise me at all if Community College Students in Mobile tend to be much more Working and Middle-Class and representative of the City at large, in a City that is 51% Black and 44% White, where household income levels tend to be a bit higher, that we would see Community College students vote more heavily Democratic than Public University students...

Even some 20 years back when I was student age, that was always one of the tricks if you were from working and lower-middle class economic abilities, to cut down on your parent's college student loan debt (As well as your own) to try to get as many 100 and 200 level Undergrad classes at the Community College, before you transfer your credits to the State University, where the cost of tuition goes through the roof...

So when looking at Precinct #37, which is a fairly heavily African-American University of South Alabama precinct with a huge % of College Age students (18-29), it might well explain some of the variance between the "Dorm Vote" vs the "Off-Campus Vote", since it frequently takes a few years longer to bank enough Community College Credits, while working at the same time to cover one's college costs, before you move closer to the University, which is more expensive in terms of both housing costs and tuition, and additionally off-campus housing is likely not only preferred, but also potentially required for Junior and Senior College students....

[NOVA Green]

Conf USA- West-

University of Alabama- Birmingham:

Birmingham, Alabama:

74,271 HRC (84.3% D), 10,875 Trump (12.4% R)                        + 59.9% D

Now, I wasn't able to locate the precinct for the U of A- Birmingham because Jefferson County is seriously lacking when it comes to accessibility of precinct maps...

Now, looking at other municipalities within the County, since 'Bama elections are recently attracting major attention

Bessemer is heavily Democratic, but with room for Democratic growth (Same as Homewood)....

Vestavia Hills, Mountain Brook (Both Republican White Birmingham 'Burbs) are the types of places where Jones needs to flip hard in December, along with significantly improving Dem '16 margins in Trussville, in order to maximize Dem margins out of Jefferson County.... If Jones can improve massively off of HRC '16 numbers in these locations, he will likely be doing extremely well in the Birmingham 'Burbs of Shelby and St Clair County as well....

[NOVA Green]

Sun Belt Conference:

Texas State University:

San Marcos, Texas:

10,902 (57.5% D), 6,371 (33.6% R)        + 23.9% D


University precincts are a bit trickier to spot, but precincts 334 & 413 appear to be overwhelmingly student precincts....

1,210 (66.9% D), 482 (26.6% R)             +  40.3% D

[NOVA Green]

Sun Belt Conference:

Coastal Carolina University:

Conway, South Carolina

Located in the heavily Republican Coastal retiree Horry County, the county suffers from all of the same limitations that places elsewhere do in South Carolina when it comes to looking at precinct level results by municipality...

A significant number of split precincts not aligned with municipal boundaries, absentee/ early votes not broken down by precinct etc (15% of the County Vote)....

Still, if we pull the numbers by Election Day votes for Conway including split-precincts we see something like the following:

3,535 HRC (37.5% D), 5,541 Trump (58.8% R)     + 21.3% R

Actual ED City votes are probably less Republican than that, considering the split precincts all went something like 70-26 R, inflating the overall Conway vote total.

We don't really have a way of breaking down the 19k Early and Absentee ballots for the County by location, although overall they did go significantly less Republican than the County as a whole, so most likely this was also the case for the City of Conway...

If we look at the precinct where Coastal Carolina University is located, we see the following ED numbers...

311 HRC (38.7% D), 437 Trump (54.4%)               + 15.7% R

So unless a large number of students living on campus voted early/absentee and voted Democratic by significant numbers, it appears that Coastal Carolina is one of the few University precincts that Trump won of any of the Colleges/Universities on this list.

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- decided to start going back to take a break before delving into a few of the more complicated cities remaining, and start backfilling some of the precinct level data for "Dorm Vote" (Precincts located overwhelmingly on Campus, that are generally disproportionately younger Millennials (18-19), since frequently many Universities have a penalty for "off-campus" housing during the Freshman and Sophomore Years, "Off-Campus" that generally is heavily Undergrad in many cases but frequently blended a bit with Grad Students, and occasionally tenured Professors and Senior Administrators, that typically prefer not to live too close to the "Student Ghettos" because of the noise distractions and all that....

PAC 12- North:

University of Washington:

Seattle, Washington:

1.) Dorm Vote: (90+% 18-19 population)

1,158 HRC (84.1% D), 92 Trump (6.7% R), 3rd Party/ Write-In (9.2%)     + 77.4% D > R

2.) "Off-Campus Undergrad Vote": (heavily 18-19)

1,972 HRC (81.9% D), 175 Trump (7.3% R), 3rd Party/Write-In (10.8%)   + 74.6% D>R

3.) "U-District": Neighborhood of Seattle other than precincts includes in # 1 and #2, that are still heavily Undergrad Precincts, but also include some Grad Students and a few professors, administrators, etc....

1,907 HRC (82.3% D), 250 Trump (10.8% R), 3rd Party/Write In (6.9%)     +  71.5% D>R

4.) Total "U-District Vote"

5,037 HRC (82.6% D), 517 Trump (8.5% R), 3rd Party/Write-In (8.9%)       + 74.1% D> R


So here it appears that the undergrads (Younger Millennials) voted more Democratic than older Millennials....

Now, obviously on surface these voting numbers appear abysmal to see only 6,100 votes cast in a neighborhood of 27.8k, however one must remember that obviously international students do not vote in American elections, many out of state undergrads vote via absentee ballot in other states, and in their home counties within Washington State, but still this is the only real raw data point we have with student populations....

Edit: I should note that Trump did not clear above 30% in a single precinct in Seattle....

His to best precincts were a few wealthy precincts around Broadmoor, and a sliver along Lake Washington, another further South along Lake Washington, another around the Hamilton Viewpoint Park on the tip of Puget Sound and Elliot Bay...

These are places that used to vote heavily Republican, back when there were "normal Republicans" (West Coast Style)....

Meanwhile out of the 962 precinct located within the City of Seattle, we have 205 precincts where Trump captured less than 5% of the total vote, and an additional 426 precincts where he captured less than 10% of the Vote....

Although the "Dorm Vote" and "Off-Campus Undergrad Vote", voted to the "Left" of the City overall it's actually not that apparent that the "U-District" did as a whole, where he did manage to capture 8.5% of the vote in the neighborhood versus only 8.4% in the City at large....

[NOVA Green]

PAC-12- North:

Oregon State University:

This is slightly tricky, since unfortunately since Oregon went Vote by Mail (VbM) we have seen a significant decrease in total number of precincts for most municipalities, that unfortunately decreases granularity (Yes I do have comprehensive precinct results for Benton County from '84 to '16 that I will post when I update the County on the Oregon Thread).

Additionally, approximately 40% of the population of Corvallis are students at Oregon State, and in a smaller town of some 60k, means that they are much more widely dispersed than in many other College/University Communities....

Still, we can consider Precinct #4 to be the "Dorm Vote", (Overwhelmingly 18-21 Yrs) that includes not only the Campus Proper, but also many high density off-campus Undergrad housing in close proximity to Campus...

1,772 HRC (70.7% D), 419 Trump (16.7% R), 3rd Party/Write-In (12.6%)      +54.0% D >R

Precinct # 5 is certainly an Undergrad "Off-Campus Vote", that includes not only traditional "Greek Row" but also high density Undergrad shared housing:

1,781 HRC (74.4% D), 291 Trump (12.2%), 3rd Party/Write-In (13.4%)        + 62.2% D > R

Trump places 3rd under 3rd Party Candidates....

Precinct #2 that includes areas East of the University could well be considered be a significant University Precinct, especially with the increased gentrification coming with the shortage of on-campus housing, but still it is a pretty diverse precinct that includes a significant proportion of individuals in "Downtown Corvallis" that are Seniors, individuals with disabilities, and low-income housing, combined with relatively Wealthy Middle-Aged White Liberals in Professional Occupations, as well as "Yuppie" voters living in some of the new recent luxury developments along the Riverfront....

1,737 HRC (71.3% D), 326 Trump (13.4% R), 3rd Party/ Write-In (15.3%)      + 57.9% D > R

Maybe I am misreading some of the major demographic shifts, and housing development projects within this precinct over the past ten years, but this has never historically been a major "student precinct", although the Western half of the Precinct is now overwhelmingly Undergrad.

Precinct #7 obviously deserves an honorable Mention, up the Hill towards Witham Hill Oaks and Witham Hill Village (Some of the larger Apartment complexes in Corvallis), but yet there is still a bunch more Townie than Gownie compared to many other parts of the City when looking at the 18-29 population....

2,963 HRC (76.1% D), 516 Trump (13.3% R), 3rd Party/Write-In (10.6%)       + 62.8% D > R

So although there has always been an Undergrad population in these apartments, actually this would tend to be a bit more "Grad Student Country" in the apartments, and "Professor Country in some of the nice homes built up on the Hills in the '70s when the University was starting to expand...

So the "Dorm vote" appears to have voted slightly to the Left of the City, but the "Grad Student/Professor Vote" to the Left of the "Dorm Vote"....

Still, missing granularity, but a data point nonetheless.....

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- rolling through a few more precinct numbers looking for "Dorm Votes", "Off-Campus Undergrad", and mixed "Undergrad/ Grad student University" precincts....

PAC 12 North:

University of Oregon:

We have two precincts that are predominately located on the University of Oregon Campus (Albeit with precinct consolidation we lose some degree of granularity, since these also include some off-campus undergrad housing, not physically located on Campus.... Still, it's the best we can do for a compare contrast:

"Dorm Vote--- overwhelmingly U of O undergrads located on campus aged 18-19"

Total Vote: 8,432--6,926 HRC (82.1% Dem), 673 Trump (8.0% Rep), 833 Other (9.9%)  + 74.1% D

"Off Campus overwhelmingly Undergrad Vote"--- (1) precinct:

Total Vote: 1,456-1,153 HRC (78.7% Dem), 134 Trump (9.1% Rep), 178 Other (12.8%)   +69.6% D

"Heavily Student Vote proximate to campus aged 18-29 (Mixed Grad and Undergrad)"

Total Vote: 7,178-5,551 HRC (77.3% Dem), 652 Trump (9.1% Rep), 975 Other (13.6%)  + 68.2% D

Combined Results for heavily University Precincts:

Total Vote: 17,075-- 13,630 HRC (79.8% D), 1,459 DJT (8.5% R), 1,986 Other (11.7%)  + 71.3% D

So, here we have yet another University where the Undergrad student population not only voted to the Left of the City, but to the Left of mixed areas with higher percentages of Grad Students....

The tenured "Professor Vote" is virtually non-existent in these types of precincts, as it is in most of the University Precinct results that I have pulled to date for some pretty obvious reasons that should not require yet more additional explanations.

So now the 3rd PAC-12 North University where Trump placed behind the combined 3rd Party vote, among a heavily White Student-Undergrad population....

[NOVA Green]

PAC-12 North:

Washington State University:

2016 Campus Precincts:

Total Vote: 178 Votes, 117 HRC (65.7% Dem), 35 DJT (19.7% Rep), 26 Others (14.6%) + 46.0% D

2016 Off Campus Student Precincts:

Total Vote: 1,481, 994 HRC (67.1% Dem), 208 DJT (14.0% Rep), 279 Others (18.9%) +53.1% D>R

2016 TOTAL Campus + Off-Campus Student Precincts:

Total Vote: 1,659- 1,111 HRC (67.0% Dem), 243 DJT (14.6% DJT), 305 Others (18.4%) +52.4% D

So yet again we have Trump placing 3rd behind the combined 3rd Party Votes....

Since, I already have the data pulled up, let's look at the 2012 numbers to see what they show for WSU student precincts....

2012 Campus Precincts:

Total Votes: 275- 180 Obama (65.5% Dem), 80 Romney (29.1% Rep)    + 36.4% Dem

2012 Off-Campus Student Precincts:

Total Votes: 1,534- 1,072 Obama (69.9% Dem), 348 Romney (22.7% Rep)      + 47.2% Dem

2012 Total Campus plus Off-Campus Precincts:


Total Votes 1,809- 1,252 Obama (69.2% Dem), 428 Romney (23.7% Rep)      + 45.5% Dem

So here you have some interesting contrasts and observations:

1.) Total turnout in student precincts at WSU appears to have dropped almost 10% between 2012 and 2016...

2.) Obama '12 only performed marginally better than HRC at 69% of the student vote, compared to HRC's 67%. This is notable, because of the unusually large 3rd Party voting in 2016 that there wasn't much of a drop-off in total Democratic vote share.

3.) Republican support virtually collapsed between '12 and '16, dropping almost 50% from a fairly low starting baseline to begin with.

4.) The youngest segment of Millennials here at least, do not appear to be any more Republican than those four years older, in fact quite the opposite, although this did not translate into Democratic gains among the vote share in 2016, it did increase the total Democratic vote margin by almost 10% despite lower turnout because of the collapse in Republican support between '12 and '16.

5.) Dorm precincts here appear to be slightly more Republican than the Off-Campus precincts, which is a bit different than we have observed in some other locations that we have examined.

[NOVA Green]

PAC 12- North:

Stanford University:

2016 Campus/ "Dorm" Vote:


Total Votes: 839--- 756 HRC (90.1% Dem), 26 DJT (3.1% Rep), 57 Others (6.8%)    + 87.0% D>R

Note that Trump placed 3rd behind Gary Johnson among Dorm Voters at Stanford.

2016 "Off-Campus" Undergrad Precincts:

Total Votes: 2,202---1,978 HRC (89.8% Dem), 58 Trump (2.6% Rep), 166 Others (7.5%) +87.2% D

Combined Campus Dorm Vote with Off Campus Under-Grad Precincts:

Total Votes: 3,041-- 2,734 HRC (89.9% Dem), 84 DJT (2.8% Rep), 223 Others (7.3%)     +87.1% D

Note that Trump actually placed behind both the Green and Libertarian Candidates and finished 4th in these off-campus undergrad student precincts.

Wow!!! I just pulled these numbers and was so stunned by the results, that I needed to go outside and smoke a cig to think about the implications of arguably the toughest school to get into as an Undergrad in the US and even globally, as rated by recent studies, which is essentially the closest thing we to an Ivy League school in the Western US voting in numbers more reminiscent of votes back in the USSR days, with Trump getting eviscerated to the point where he placed 4th and almost got beat by Write-In voters to win the 5th place prize!!!!

So--- ok now I needed to go back and see how Stanford Undergrads voted in 2012 to see if somehow this is normal against a generic Republican type candidate, where one would imagine that Romney might do a bit better in a University that is very pricey and the student body tends to come mainly from Upper-Middle Class and wealthier family backgrounds....

2012: Campus/ "Dorm" Vote:

Total Vote: 804--- 681 Obama (84.7% Dem), 82 Romney (10.2% Rep)              + 74.5% Dem

2012: Off-Campus Student Vote:

Total Vote 876--- 724 Obama (82.6% Dem), 100 Romney (11.4% Rep)             + 71.2% Dem

2012: Total Campus and Off Campus Undergrad Student Vote:

Total Vote: 1,680---  1,405 Obama (83.6% Dem), 182 Romney (10.8% Rep)     + 72.8% Dem

**** NOTE the reason for the variance between the total off-campus numbers was because of a precinct split between '12 and '16 in one of the "off-campus" precincts, and as I was unable to align it with its new precinct home, left it off the data for 2012, but honestly I doubt that would move that numbers that much in terms of total % of the vote the major Party candidates received in 2012.

Notes/Observations/Comments:

1.) Total Undergrad student voting at Stanford appears to have increased significantly between '12 and '16. The usual caveat here is that in heavily Undergrad campus precincts that there can frequently be ebbs and flows based upon the rates of expansion among the total student population in even a very short time frame such as four years.... Hence we can't necessarily use total votes from student precincts in order to confirm relative enthusiasm for various candidates as a data point in the same way that we can with less dynamic and static precinct populations, but still worthy of a mention.

2.) Overall support for the Democratic Candidate in terms of total vote share increased significantly between '12 and '16, jumping from 84 to 90%.... This itself if a bit interesting because generally in many University precincts overall Dem vote share dropped, even as margins increased, because of defections to 3rd Party Candidates.

What I suspect here is that even though there wasn't a ton of room to expand the Democratic margins as a total percentage spread, is that Stanford swung heavily Democratic as did many other Upper-Income precincts, Cities and Towns where a 15% 2012 to 2016 swing wasn't abnormal as many of us have discussed in another thread examining the 2016 election results in wealthier communities throughout the US. The economic profile of a standard Stanford student tends to skew heavily from this demographic....

3.) Trump??? Well he obviously wasn't particularly popular here, I mean how the hell does a Republican Pres nominee only capture 3% of the 18-22 Vote among what arguably should and was historically until very recently a fairly 'Pub constituency, let alone place behind both Stein and Johnson?

These should be some pretty sobering numbers for my Republican Atlasian friends and 'Pub leaning Indies out there when even fringe candidates beat their main dude...

Sure, I pretty much expected UW and U of O to vote overwhelmingly Dem within the PAC-12, and WSU and OSU to give a higher % of their vote share to Trump than the other PAC-12 schools (Land Grant schools with large focuses on Ag, Science & Engineering, etc), but still.

Next stop Cal (UC-Berkeley) and then I can wrap up the PAC-12 North for Uni Precincts and throw all of this data into a more appealing visual format with a few charts/graphs and all that cool stuff....

At this point the only question remaining is did UC-Berkeley Undergrad precincts vote more Democratic/Republican than Stanford Precincts?

[NOVA Green]

PAC 12 North:

University of California- Berkeley:

2016 Campus/ "Dorm" Vote:

Total Vote: 1,536--- 1,333 HRC (86.8% Dem), 81 Trump (5.3% Rep), 122 Other (7.9%)  + 81.5% D

Trump placed 2nd in the dorm vote, beating Stein by 19 Votes....

2016 Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote 10,264-- 8,924 HRC (86.9% Dem), 398 Trump (3.9% Rep), 942 Other (9.2%)  +83.0% D

Combined Dorm Vote and Off-Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 11,800--- 10,257 HRC (86.9% Dem), 479 Trump (4.1% Rep), 1,064 Other (9.0%)

DJT placed 3rd behind Stein among undergrad precincts in Berkeley....

Note: Off-Campus precincts in Berkeley are a bit tricky, because of the nature of the campus a large majority of Under Grads live off-Campus in the student ghettos South of Campus, as well as a few precincts North of Campus and one or two on the Western Side of Campus.

Inherently, this makes the "off-campus" vote a bit trickier since it dilutes the Undergrad precincts and contaminates the data sample by also adding on voters that are Grad Students in their '20s that don't necessarily vote the same way as the Campus based population.

Still, that data speaks for itself when once again Trump is only bagging 4-5 % of the Undergrad vote in the most difficult school to get admission to in the entire UC program....

Later if I have time will try to pull the 2012 numbers, but as is the case in many States and Counties, this might require a significant amount of time because of precinct changes between '12 and '16....

So, now will try to pull the PAC-12 North data into a more graphical format to represent the Undergrad votes at these various academic institutions....

[NOVA Green]

So here are the basic numbers for PAC-12 North University Precincts splitting the "Dorm Vote" from the off-campus precincts that are overwhelmingly Undergrad College students...





Needless to say, these numbers do not bode well for the Republican Party within the West Coast, when Trump actually placed 3rd behind combined third party candidates, and in some instances actually placed 3rd or 4th....

I haven't really had a chance to fully digest the data yet on this Thanksgiving Day, but at least wanted to throw the graphs out and complete the PAC-12 North data drilled down to the University Precinct level.

[NOVA Green]

PAC 12- South:

University of Utah:

2016 Campus/ "Dorm" Vote:

Total Vote: 1,089--497 HRC (45.6% Dem),197 DJT (17.6% Rep), 400 Others (36.7%) +28.0% D>R

Note McMullin came in 2nd with 30.2% of the campus vote....

2016 Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 3,347--2,415 HRC (72.2% Dem),416 DJT (12.4% Rep),516 Others (15.4%)
+59.8% D>R

Interestingly enough McMullin only received 8.1% here...

Combined Dorm Vote with Off-Campus Student Vote:

Total Votes: 4,436---  2,912 HRC (65.6% Dem), 613 DJT (13.8% Rep), 916 Others (20.6%)
+ 51.8% Dem

Note McMullin received 13.5% of the combined Vote.

Notes/Observations:

1.) The "Off-Campus" numbers were a bit trickier than in some cities since precinct lines did not neatly align with Census tract data, and additionally the Undergrad population is a bit more dispersed than in some Cities, meaning that the off-campus precincts are a bit more diluted, and likely included a slightly higher proportion of Grad students than some of the other places surveyed to date. Still, I tried to be fairly conservative in which precincts to include to minimize data contamination.

2.) The "Dorm Vote" versus the off-campus numbers are particularly interesting, considering McMullin's extremely strong performance among Dorm voters compared to his not so strong support among off-campus voters. Although I am not an expert on Utah Universities, it appears that the campus based student population appears to have a much higher percentage of Mormons (Which presumably would be McMullin's main base of support) than off-campus students.

3.) In both campus and off-campus precincts Trump's level of support was much lower than one might expect for such a Republican State, and even lower than that of many other fairly reliably Democratic University towns... I am curious what the 2012 precinct numbers will look like by comparison to see if this the norm, or an exception to the norm in previous elections.

4.) Clinton actually performed remarkably well in the off-campus precincts, and actually beat her overall 66% vote share that she received in SLC as a whole in the 2016 GE....

[NOVA Green]

PAC 12- South:

University of Colorado- Boulder:

2016 Campus/Dorm Vote:

Total Vote: 2,698--- 2,035 HRC (75.1% Dem), 437 DJT (16.2% Rep), 226 Other (8.4%)
+ 58.9% Dem

2016 Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 7,896--- 6,173 HRC (78.2% Dem), 1,036 DJT (13.1% Rep), 687 Other (11.1%)
+ 65.1% D

Combined Campus/Dorm Vote with Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 10,594--- 8,208 (77.5% Dem), 1,473 DJT (13.9% Rep), 913 Other (8.6%)
+ 63.6% Dem

So interestingly enough, despite the University of Colorado's reputation as a Liberal "hippie" stronghold, Trump actually performed slightly better than in most of the Universities of the PAC-12 that we have examined thus far....

Still, it doesn't appear that there was a large a defection to 3rd Party candidates that I might have expected and didn't see here or at UC-Berkeley, University of Washington, and University of Oregon, so it looks like HRC held the line at these "Flagship Schools", compared to the higher number of 3rd Party defections at places like Washington State University and Oregon State University.... University of Utah is an exception for obvious reasons....

Ok--- now I just need to crunch the campus precinct numbers for UCLA and USC and then can wrap up the precinct level data for the PAC-12 South and through the data into a graphical format.

[NOVA Green]

Big 12 Conference:

University of Texas- Austin:

Austin, Texas:

Total Vote: 333,172---239,779 HRC (72.0% Dem), 69,150 DJT (20.8% Rep), 24,243 Others (7.3%)
 + 51.2% D

2016 University of Texas Austin- Campus Precincts/ Dorm Vote:

Total Votes: 5,660--- 4,479 HRC (79.1% Dem), 786 Trump (13.9% Rep), 395 Others (7.0%)

+ 65.2% Dem

University of Texas Austin- Off Campus Undergrad Precincts:

Total Votes: 8,781--- 6,666 HRC (75.9% Dem), 1,463 DJT (16.7% Rep), 652 Others (7.4%)

+ 59.2% Dem

Combined UT-Austin Campus and Off-Campus Undergrad Precincts:

Total Votes: 14,441--- 11,145 HRC (77.2% Dem), 2,249 (15.6% Rep), 1,047 Other (7.3%)

Meanwhile here are a few other precincts in Austin that I found with a significant student population:

1.) St Edwards University (Liberal Arts Catholic University)

Total Votes: 2,076--- 1,724 HRC (83.0% Dem), 211 DJT (10.2% Rep)

*** This precinct is slightly tricky in that it does overlap with an off-campus neighborhood of South Austin, which is an overwhelmingly Democratic Part of the City, but still it is the main campus precinct and with an undergrad student population of 5,000, of whom a significant number reside in the dorms, it is still noteworthy and an interesting data point, especially when contrasted with another Catholic university in Mobile, Alabama that voted heavily Republican in 2016.

2.) Austin Community College Riverside---

Here is another precinct (# 429) where there is a significant concentration of Undergrad students located near the Town Lakes area of South Austin, but again precinct lines overlap with some areas that do not have nearly as high a concentration of residents aged 18-19...

Without going into the exact numbers, looks to be roughly 80-11 Dem

Notes/Observations:

1.) Obviously we large Universities located in major Metro areas the Undergrad student vote tends to be a bit more dispersed than in many smaller communities, so although obviously the UT-Austin Undergrad population is represented in significant numbers in some other Census Block Group Maps not included in my precinct calculations, I tried to use a Conservative analysis and generally only include precincts that were overwhelmingly 18-29 within a near proximity to campus, with an especial emphasis on the 18-19 year old population, since this helps separate out much of the Grad Student population, even though obviously Juniors and Seniors tend to be quite a bit more likely to live "off-campus" than Freshman and Sophmores....

2.) So once again we have both a Campus and Off-Campus based student population voting to the "Left" of the City, even a well known Liberal stronghold such as Austin....

Perhaps what is even more remarkable here, is that contrary to the stereotype about Austin that many Anglo-Texans and White Liberal and Conservatives alike have, is that Austin is actually a Minority-Majority City.... Only 49% of the City self-identify as White, 34% as Latino-Americans, 8% African-Americans, 6% Asian-Americans, so one might well expect the UT college students to vote more Republican than the overall population of the City at large, as opposed to the contrary....

This obviously was not the case....

3.) Related topic, it is notable that Trump only won 13/274 precincts in the City of Austin, which is a City of close to or over a Million by 2017, of which (7) of these precincts had fewer than ten voters, and only two had more than 500 voters....

The only precinct that he won with over 1,000 total voters was Precinct # 212 by (43-52 R) which is really a lovely part of Austin, home to many of the original Mansions that puts on one of the best Christmas Light decorative shows in all of Austin.... Needless to say, I suspect this particular precinct swung heavily between '12 and '16, as did many extremely wealthy precincts in most parts of the United States.

Obviously the struggle for Republicans in Texas, is that appears that one of the largest and fastest growing cities in the State, is becoming a heavily Democratic stronghold based upon overwhelming support from both Anglo and Minority voters alike....   

Trendlines do not look good in "Battleground Texas".....

3.) Again a '12 > '16 Compare contrast would be interesting for Austin, and the UT precincts in particular, since Texas is a state which could well continue to shift increasingly Democratic extremely quickly if swings that we have seen in heavily Anglo precincts in the larger Metro areas, with sustained swings among Middle and Upper-Middle Class Latinos (Which used to be a persuadable 'Pub voting block only a few short years ago), combined with sustained turnout among Working-Class Latinos in the Cities and 'Burbs, which did appear to have occurred in '16.

Obviously discussions regarding Texas '16 results and trends really deserve their own thread, and although I haven't delved down to precinct level data for Travis County in much detail yet, this is obviously a part of Texas that bears close watching, mainly because of the overwhelmingly Democratic numbers pumped out of the City of Austin in '16 +190k D, which in a State like Ohio would likely create much more attention....

[NOVA Green]

So we have now completed the results for the Big-12 Football Conferences by City/Municipality in the 2016 Presidential Election:

Here are how the respective cities of Big-12 Voted (Obviously Campus Votes will have a separate post):



So, what to make of all this?

1.) It obviously challenges the stereotype of the Big-12 essentially representing rural Great Plains and Farm Belt communities, where you have University communities in solidly Trump States (Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, Iowa, and Kansas), voting Democratic with the exceptions of Lubbock, Texas and Stillwater, Oklahoma....

2.) It is interesting that Lawrence, Kansas voted almost as Democratic as Austin Texas, despite it being an overwhelmingly Anglo City compared to Austin....

Austin has always been a foil for Texas 'Pubs as the "Liberal" Heart of Texas, but at some point one must wonder to what extent this is vernacular for "White Liberals" versus ??

Meanwhile quite Anglos appear to have voted more Democratic in places like Ames and Morgantown than the "Liberal" bastion of Texas.

3.) It also appears that HRC won the White Vote in Manhattan, Kansas (KSU).

4.) I haven't yet run all of precinct numbers by University Precincts for the Big-12, but honestly it wouldn't surprise me to see HRC having won ever single Big 12 University Undergrad precincts, with the possible exception of Texas Tech in Lubbock, although TCU might possibly have been a Trump win as well...

To be continued, but Trump's surge in the Great Plains states does not yet appear to have extended to the major Division 1-A Football towns and cities.....

[NOVA Green]

PAC-12 South:

University of Southern California:

2016 Campus/Dorm Vote:

Total Votes: 3,029----  2,573 HRC (84.9% Dem), 288 Trump (11.2% Rep), 168 Other (6.5%)

+ 73.7% Dem

2016 Off Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 2,701--- 2,335 HRC (86.4% Dem), 177 Trump (6.6% Rep), 189 Other (7.0%)

+ 79.8% Dem

*** Trump placed 3rd behind the combined minor party candidate vote

Combined Dorm and Off-Campus Vote:


Total Vote: 5,730--- 4,908 HRC (85.7% Dem), 465 Trump (8.1% Rep), 357 Others (6.2%)

+ 77.6% Dem

NOTES and OBSERVATIONS:

1.) This does not include any Write-In votes, since honestly it would have been a bit of an exercise to try to consolidate these by precinct for LA County.... This likely would have moved the numbers slightly down on the total % for both major party candidates, but not that significantly looking at the total ballots cast by precinct vs the listed candidates on the ballot, and not sure how they treated under-votes and over-votes within the LA County reporting structure.

2.) This is not perfect precinct alignment with "Campus" vs "Off-Campus" precincts since there were a few overlaps, but that would not appear to have significantly impacted the results, since the numbers were fairly close between both.

3.) As in other cases, I tried to minimize inclusion of precincts that did not have a significant component of 18-19 year old voters for off-campus precincts, as well as a large number of residents in their '20s, to minimize accidentally including precincts heavy in Grad Students, TAs, as well as other residents in the surrounding neighborhood who might not be affiliated with the University at all.

This is likely part of the reason why the off-campus vote looks smaller than one might expect, combined with the easy accessibility to off-campus housing a few miles down the various interstates that run by campus, which is not as much the case in many smaller University Cities, where affordable off-campus student housing is more readily available in relatively close proximity to the University.

4.) On-Campus student voter turnout appears to be extremely low by PAC-12 standards, barely above 50%, which could indicate either a general lack of enthusiasm for the choice of candidates presented, or possibly Undergrad students moving out the dorms and failing to register to vote or receive their off-campus ballot, in an election which after all is held just barely half-way through Fall term.

5.) I was slightly surprised to see USC vote so overwhelmingly Democratic compared to most other University precincts in the PAC-12 South, and actually exceeding the overall level of Democratic Presidential support in most of the PAC-12 North University Precincts.

Let's face the cost of tuition has gone through the roof, even at most public schools within the PAC-12 over recent decades, let alone the Private Schools like Stanford and USC...

One must certainly wonder why the Private Universities of the PAC-12 are some of the most Democratic within the Conference?

6.) What makes the USC Undergrad student population so much different than that of ASU, University of Colorado, and University of Arizona, to see these election results?

Next stop UCLA student precincts to complete the PAC-12 South Undergrad Student Vote.....

[NOVA Green]

PAC-12 South:

University of California- Los Angeles:

2016: "Dorm"/Campus Vote:

Total Votes: 10,774: 9,173 HRC (85.1% Dem), 961 Trump (8.9% Rep), 640 Other (5.9%)

+ 76.2% Dem

So here's where it gets a bit tricky is that with UCLA because of the sprawling nature of the Campus that that the Student population is heavily Undergrad, but not so much as one might expect, since it appears that there are some on-campus precincts that likely include some Grad student housing (Unless UCLA has a disproportionately older Undergrad Campus population than one might expect)...

The Off-Campus vote is much more difficult to analyze, since although we have some slivers of 18-19 year old voters in a neighborhood South of Wilshire Boulevard, it makes it difficult to look at as a predominately Undergrad Student Vote....

These precincts appear to have gone roughly 79/80 Dem vs 15-16 Pub....

My thought is that the Undergrad Student vote is closer to the 85-9 D vs the 80-16 D, considering the high preponderance of voters in their '20s in the precincts South of Wilshire, despite the offsets of Grad Student housing on the UCLA campus....

Interestingly enough, UCLA campus turnout is closer to what one might expect for California, even in a heavily Student community, compared to what we saw from USC....

I suspect that a much larger proportion of the Undergrad US Citizen student population are actually from California versus USC....

Whatever the case might be, still I think this is just about the best we can get in terms of looking at the UCLA Undergrad student voting population....

[NOVA Green]

So, let's look at how the PAC-12 South Undergrad University Precincts voted in 2016 in a Graphical Format:

Dorm/Campus Vote:



Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:



So what meaning is there if anything delving into the weeds of Undergrad voting patterns within the PAC 12?

1.) Obviously the results from the University of Utah stand out dramatically, especially looking at the compare/contrast of the Campus Precincts vs Off-Campus Under-Grad Precincts, especially when looking at the numbers from Arizona State University off-campus precincts....

*** Maybe *** this is just an issue of which precincts were included in the "off-campus" precinct category, but even when looking at a much cleaner precinct level like the "Dorm Vote" as ASU, it's looking clearly as the most Republican student voters of the entire PAC-12 (24% Trump)....

The numbers are fairly consistent between ASU Campus and Off-Campus Precincts, which appears that this not a random outlier nor variable....

We can all certainly understand why the University of Utah results stand out, but what is even more interesting is why the ASU results stand out so much?

2.) One must certainly wonder UCLA and USC stand out as the most Democratic Universities within the Conference, even compared against traditionally Liberal / Democratic Universities like University of Colorado- Boulder and University of Arizona- Tucson???

What has changed in the composition of the student population over the past few decades that has shifted these number so dramatically?

3.) Regardless of these numbers, the trends to not appear well for Republicans in the Southwest, considering these are generally overwhelmingly Anglo Universities, where the student base appears to be voting very differently from the behavior of their parents....

[NOVA Green]

So here are the overall number for the PAC-12 Student precincts including Campus and Off-Campus Student Votes...

[NOVA Green]

Big 12 Conference:

University of Oklahoma:

2016 Dorm/Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 2,850---- 1,837 HRC (64.5% Dem), 721 DJT (25.3% Rep), 292 Other (10.2%)

+ 39.2% D

2016 Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 2,717--- 1,517 (55.8% Dem), 944 DJT (34.7% Rep), 256 Other (9.4%)

+ 21.1% D

Combined Campus and Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 5,567--- 3,354 (60.2% Dem), 1,665 (29.9% Rep), 548 Other (9.8%)

+ 30.3% D

Notes/Observations:

1.) Insert standard caveats regarding some precincts split between Campus and Off-Campus, and tried to code to the best of my ability against Census Tract Info and Campus Boundaries.

2.) Same deal with trying to carefully code precincts as "off-campus" based not just on physical proximity, but also trying to ensure that these precincts needed to have a significant proportion of 18-19 year old population, combined with am extremely large % of the population, to avoid capturing an excessive quantity of the Grad Student/ "Professor Vote", nor accidentally including nearby precincts, solely because of physical proximity to the University.

3.) So interestingly enough a much large gap between Campus vs Off-Campus precincts than we have seen in many of the other communities where I have pulled these numbers....

4.) It is interesting regardless to see how a State like Oklahoma that went overwhelmingly Trump, still appears to have gone heavily Democratic among the Undergrad student population, many of whom are In-State Oklahoma students, whose parents, like many others can't afford to spend 2x the cost of College Tuition to send their children to an out of state campus....

5.) Again we see another scenario where the Undergrad "Gown Vote" voted significantly differently than the "Town Vote"....

6.) We have observed on other threads how Upper-Income communities in many parts of the Country swung significantly towards the Democratic Pres nominee between '12 and '16, and obviously Norman as essentially not just a University City, but also a suburb/exurban community outside of OKC, likely saw some swings towards HRC among the more monied neighborhoods/ precincts in the City....

It would be interesting to do a compare contrast between '12 and '16 looking at some of the wealthier precincts within Norman, to see if they mirror some of the other significant swings we saw towards HRC in wealthier 'Burbs of OKC and Tulsa....

7.) At some point in relatively "elite" state Universities, one must certainly wonder to what extent their is a correlation between swings between their Middle-Aged and Upper-Middle-Class parents in many of these places....

Certainly a project that someone could like earn a Political Science Masters Thesis on running the data through the more rigorous process of Academia.

[NOVA Green]

So we have now completed the results for the Big-12 Football Conferences by City/Municipality in the 2016 Presidential Election:

Here are how the respective cities of Big-12 Voted (Obviously Campus Votes will have a separate post):



So, what to make of all this?

1.) It obviously challenges the stereotype of the Big-12 essentially representing rural Great Plains and Farm Belt communities, where you have University communities in solidly Trump States (Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, Iowa, and Kansas), voting Democratic with the exceptions of Lubbock, Texas and Stillwater, Oklahoma....

2.) It is interesting that Lawrence, Kansas voted almost as Democratic as Austin Texas, despite it being an overwhelmingly Anglo City compared to Austin....

Austin has always been a foil for Texas 'Pubs as the "Liberal" Heart of Texas, but at some point one must wonder to what extent this is vernacular for "White Liberals" versus ??

Meanwhile quite Anglos appear to have voted more Democratic in places like Ames and Morgantown than the "Liberal" bastion of Texas.

3.) It also appears that HRC won the White Vote in Manhattan, Kansas (KSU).

4.) I haven't yet run all of precinct numbers by University Precincts for the Big-12, but honestly it wouldn't surprise me to see HRC having won ever single Big 12 University Undergrad precincts, with the possible exception of Texas Tech in Lubbock, although TCU might possibly have been a Trump win as well...

To be continued, but Trump's surge in the Great Plains states does not yet appear to have extended to the major Division 1-A Football towns and cities.....

Regarding Austin, I should note that Travis county is the only county (out of something like 254) in Texas where Clinton won the white vote. Whites in Texas are expected to be more conservative than whites on the Great Plains, although those states, being whiter, are more republican. Kansas didn't exhibit the same kind of swing seen in the states around it. Brownback backlash may have been a factor.

Trump's surge didn't really extend to many cities at all. It was mostly a rural phenomenon. I would think that both he and Clinton got less than Romney and Obama in 2012 simply because the rise of third parties was especially pronounced with young voters. It's also worth considering that students who live close to their colleges may have voted at home, perhaps making the on campus vote disproportionately out of staters registered at the last minute (presumably strongly leaning D)

1.) Travis County---- Not to pedantic, but likely the only County where HRC won the "Anglo" Vote.... It wouldn't surprise me if there were a few counties in South Texas where HRC won the "White" Vote, simply because just like in parts of Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico, you have an established "Old Spanish" population that self-identifies as both White, but not necessarily Anglo, despite this group apparently swing Republican a bit between '12 > '16....    Still, your fundamental point is completely taken, received and agreed with....

2.) Texas Anglo Voters---- Yes overall I would agree with that statement that Texas Anglos tend to be more Conservative than Great Plains Whites, and I think it is backed up by various sources including exit polls, statewide population Demographics of the VAP, etc...

The fascinating thing about Texas (Having lived there for some four years until recently) is the stark contrasts not only within regions of the State, but even within the terrain of Metro Geography....

Was Austin the only significant City of population in Texas that HRC won a majority or plurality of the White/Anglo Vote in???

Honestly I don't know the answer to this, and obviously this would be a research project that someone could do a high level Undergrad or Masters Paper on, especially if running a '12 > '16 compare/contrast on voting patterns, demographic change, and turnout in the larger Cities of Texas...

Still, what is perhaps the most significant takeaway here is that likely this population swung heavily Democratic between '12  and '16....

The results from Maricopa County Arizona were not an anomaly, in that the largest swings between '12 and '16 happened in heavily Anglo precincts (Which in the Southwest have a direct correlation to income within the larger Cities)

3.) Kansas is interesting, and the "Brownback Factor" likely played a role here (Certainly in the 'Burbs of KC), but that doesn't necessarily explain similar swings of Upper Middle-Class voters in the largest Cities of Oklahoma, nor Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW)....

What's a bit under the radar for many Americans, and Atlas posters as well, is the extent to which many of these Central Plains states Metros like Kansas City, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Dallas, are some of the fastest growing areas of the United States.

4.) Students Voting "On Campus" or "Off-Campus"....   I think you make a decent point here, although I would argue that perhaps "In-State" University residents might have been more likely to vote absentee mail ballot at their parents address, since that's a lot easier than driving however long to your home town or neighborhood to vote in person!

Still, one would imagine that many "out of state" students would do the same, as I did some 20 years ago when I was going to College in Ohio, but preferred instead of registering and voting locally, to cast my mail-in ballots for elections back home that I was more motivated to vote in than Ohio local and State elections....

[NOVA Green]

Big 12 Conference:

Oklahoma State University:

2016: Campus/ Dorm Vote:

Total Vote: 1,643: 779 HRC (47.4% Dem), 671 DJT (40.8% Rep), 193 Other (11.7%)

+ 6.6% Dem

2016: "Off-Campus Vote:"

Total Vote: 2,614: 1,254 HRC (48.0% Dem), 1,045 DJT (40.0% Rep), 315 Other (12.1%)

+ 8.0% Dem

Combined Campus and Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 4,257: 2,033 HRC (47.8% Dem), 1,716 DJT (40.3% Rep), 508 Other (11.9%)

+ 7.5% Dem


Notes/Comments/Observations:

1.) Usual deal with precinct boundaries not neatly overlapping with OSU campus precincts

2.) Similar gig looking at US Housing Tracts by age at off-campus precincts when measured against % of population in the 18-29 year range

3.) As a relatively small College Town with a population of only some 46k, student populations tend to be a bit more distributed than in larger University Towns and Cities...

Still, if we isolate the heavily Non-Student precincts from the Student precincts we see something like the following:

Total Vote: 9,647--- 3,646 HRC (37.8% Dem), 4,918 Trump (51.0% Rep), 1,083 Other (11.2%)

+ 13.2% Rep

What is interesting here is that Stillwater is overwhelmingly White (76.4%), and the precincts surrounding Oklahoma State University tend to be even more overwhelmingly White, but we see a clear compare contrast between the "Townies and the Gownies".

As a heavily University town, it is also interesting to note that precincts located within places within the highest % of a Phd are quite more Republican than the town as a whole, while precincts with those with a Masters Degree are more Democratic than the town as a whole....

4.) Not yet sure what to make of Stillwater results overall, and not that cognizant on the respective student population and academic programs, etc but obviously the Undergrad student population here is significantly different from that of Norman, Oklahoma for whatever reason...

Still, obviously this is something that my Republican friends might want to consider, especially since this might arguably be one of the most Republican States in the United States, where the sons and daughters of privilege in Oklahoma, at elite State Universities are apparently not voting for the Party of Ronald Reagan....

What has gone wrong with the Republican Party platform and policy positions to cause them to lose the support of what back in the '80s, when College Students voted heavily Republican, we used to refer to as the "Reagan Youth", when Frat districts used to generally vote much more Republican than their surrounding Campus Cities and communities?

The 1980s are long done and gone, but still the faint memories remain (Combined of course with an alternative College Radio classic Punk Song from the Old Skool Band "Reagan Youth" from the early '80s NYC scene...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V47_DQ3WT6c

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan_Youth

5.) Naturally Generational shifts happen, and unfortunately the Generation of my Grandparents that survived the Great Depression, who fought in the War against the Nazis and Italian Fascists on the Western Front (My Grandfather included), and against Asian style Fascism in the form of Japanese Ethno-Nationalism, who were once the most reliably Democratic voting block passed away, along with their collective stories and life wisdoms.

The Millennials are an interesting bunch, including my five kids and their spouses/domestic partners, friends, and co-workers, so even in Stillwater it appears that the Trump style of Republicanism is not resonating....

Yet another community to do a compare/contrast between '12 and '16 Pres overall votes within these campus precincts, and look at swings.

6.) It is also interesting to observe what is an extremely large 3rd Party voting pattern for Oklahoma, which is actually closer to what we have observed in some West Coast student communities.... Maybe we are seeing a significant defection of Romney Republicans towards Gary Johnson and the Libertarian alternative?

We don't know exactly how 3rd Party voters in 2016 in Campus communities would have voted in a Binary election, but in many places thus far it appears as a defection to the "Left".... Maybe at OSU there was a defection to the the Libertarian, as possibly similar type Campus communities such as Waco, Texas, where students might more likely have voted Republican, except for the Dude at the top of their ticket....

[NOVA Green]

Big 12 Conference:

Kansas State University:

Campus/Dorm Vote:

Total Vote: 1,476--- 734 HRC (49.7% Dem), 544 DJT (36.9% Rep), 198 Others (13.4%)

+ 12.8% Dem

Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 1,372--- 814 HRC (59.3% Dem), 390 DJT (28.4% Rep), 168 Others (12.2%)

+ 30.9% Dem

Combined Campus/Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 2,848--- 1,548 HRC (54.4% Dem), 934 DJT (32.8% Rep), 366 Others (12.9%)

+  21.6% Dem

NOTES/COMMENTS/OBSERVATIONS:

1.) Same methodology as elsewhere, lumped the three precincts that were predominately located on campus as the "Dorm/Campus Vote", and only included a few precincts that are overwhelmingly 18-19 and college age population in their 20s for "Off-Campus" Vote.

2.) There was a significant gap between the "Dorm Vote" and the "Off-Campus Undergrad Vote", in this case with the former tending to be quite a bit less Democratic than the latter. However both were still significantly more Democratic than the City at large, and the Undergrad Student vote is likely what provided HRC with her margin of victory in the City of Manhatten, and caused Trump to only win Riley County by a slim 3 % margin. Among the Campus vote, KSU actually is one of the least Democratic Universities that I've pulled precinct data for within the Big 12, but the off-campus numbers are similar to heavily Democratic margins at West Virginia University, University of Oklahoma, and Baylor University.

3.) The other precincts in Manhatten where HRC performed well tended to have a higher proportion of working-class African-American and Latino-American residents... the Upper-Middle-Class precincts in the Western part of the City, presumably where we see more of the "Professor" and "Retired Professor Vote", University Administrators, etc voted narrowly for Trump, although not by extremely large margins.

4.) One other thing I initially thought curious was why voter turnout appeared so low in Riley County compared to the total population of the County, even accounting for lower voter registration and turnout rates among College Students.... Then I remembered that this is also a Military Base County, home to Fort Riley, and frequently younger enlisted Men and Women tend to vote via absentee ballot at their parent's address, because the transitory nature of Military life makes it much more difficult to deal with the hassles of trying to vote locally...

Still, when looking at the subset of younger Millennials, Military Base communities and heavily college precincts are the only places where we can pull data for the voting habits of this Generation, other than exit polls, which obviously have their own inherent limitations, especially once one breaks them down to Statewide levels with inherent MOE issues for population subsets.

Bonus: Fort Riley On-Base Precincts:

Total Votes: 90--- 33 HRC (36.7% Dem), 45 DJT (50.0% Rep), 12 Others (13.3%)    + 13.3 % Rep

So anyways, take all of that with a couple shakers of salt considering the extremely small sample size, but the obvious thing that stands out here is the high 3rd Party vote totals, which are actually relatively similar to what we have seen in many Undergrad Campus precincts....