How Did Division I-A College Football Cities Vote in 2016?

[NOVA Green]

I did check the campus precincts for Alabama and Auburn, and they both went for Trump by double digits and were more Republican than that downballot (AL gives data on straight-ticket voters, and they were roughly 2:1 GOP).  Maybe it's easier for more students to register on campus there compared to other states?  There is no reason that Alabama and Auburn would go for Trump comfortably while LSU wouldn't even give him one-in-seven votes.

Would be interesting in seeing your data from Auburn and Tuscaloosa, in terms of which individual precincts you are referring to....

Unfortunately election results from Alabama are much less transparent than those from many other States within the region.

[NOVA Green]

University of South Dakota

* Flagship University*

Vermillion, South Dakota:

HRC (57.8%), Trump (34.8%)         +23.0% D

[NOVA Green]

University of Montana:

* Flagship University*

Missoula, Montana

1.) Firstly I want to make a formal complaint to the Missoula County Elections division for engaging in the nefarious and dubious practice of engaging in an egregious level of "Split-Precintism".

2.) Although I have experience this phenomenon many times before, Missoula County takes it an egregious level, whereby 17/32 precincts that have boundaries that fall within City Limits are split precincts!

3.) This is a lazy and sloppy practice, and obviously enables the charlatans and scoundrels that inhabit this fine county, to continue to deliberately deceive and obfuscate, the finer details of what should be a relatively transparent and visible election reporting system.

4.) This is not my first run-in with Montana precinct level election results and municipalities within Big Sky country, and will likely not be my last.

5.) Although I get the reason why occasionally split precincts are necessary, particularly in cases where there is a significant amount of annexation to City Limits between redistricting periods, this takes it to a whole new level. I haven't tried to overlap school district boundaries with precinct boundaries, but I suspect that part of the reason for this shady phenomenon in Missoula has to do with school district related elections, which in my mind should be completely separated from municipal elections.

6.) I am sure that I am not alone, as many fellow posters on Atlas, Political Scientists, and thousands of of other Americans condemn this practice in the strongest terms!

Ok---- rant aside....

What do the numbers show?

Missoula, Montana  (Including Split Precincts)

24,930 HRC (58.9% D), 13,348 Trump (31.5%)             +27.4% D

Note: These are the "official numbers" that I will include in my spreadsheet as results from the City of Missoula.

Missoula, Montana (Excluding Split Precincts)

12,950 HRC (67.7% D), 4,111 Trump (21.5% R)            +46.2% D

University District Neighborhood: (Pop ~7k+)

68% of the population is in their '20s....

This includes three precincts w/o splits and very cleanly overlaps with US Census Tracts...

2,422 HRC (74.3% D), 503 Trump (15.4% R)               + 58.9% D

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- time to update the Flagship University City map and numbers....

So, also I decided to add in the 3rd Party combined vote by Flagship University City to see the extent to which voters in these college towns defected from the two major party candidates....

In five states thus far the combined 3rd Party vote exceeded the Republican candidates vote totals   (Berkeley, California--- Amherst, Massachusetts---- Salt Lake City, Utah---- Burlington, Vermont---- Seattle, Washington)

Additionally, I coded Gray Flagship University Cities where the combined 3rd Party vote exceeded 10% (Although I accidentally skipped Morgantown WV).... the list would look something like the following:

Fayetteville, Arkansas--- 10.1%
Moscow, Idaho--- 20.8% (!!!)
Lincoln, Nebraska-- 10.4%
Eugene, Oregon---  11.6%
Morgantown, West Virginia--- 11.1%
Laramie, Wyoming--- 17.3% (!!!)

Now Moscow and Laramie are likely partially explainable because they are part of two states that are at the heart of the "Mormon Belt", so a decent chunk of the 3rd Party defections went to McMullin, as well as your typical Johnson/Stein voters seen throughout most states.....

[NOVA Green]

Sun Belt Conference:

Georgia Southern University:

Statesboro, Georgia (Bulloch County):

5,287 HRC (52.9% D), 4,245 Trump (42.5% R)      + 10.4% D

So basically the City consists mainly of three precincts, with a small part of the City extending into two neighboring precincts, which I did not include in these numbers.

Most likely this wouldn't significantly change the overall numbers, since part of Statesboro Precinct which is included also has rural areas on the Western portion that likely voted Republican by significant margins, offsetting any potential improved Republican performance in the small slivers of the City included in Fair precinct and Hagin Precinct.

If anything Statesboro proper likely voted slightly more Democratic than the numbers above suggest.

How did the University area student vote go in '16?

Although there isn't a "University Precinct" per say, the campus falls heavily inside of the Pittman Park precinct in the South Central part of the City with Census block tracts with populations 80-90% 18-21 years old located on campus, and the neighboring Census Block tracts being roughly 80% 18-29 years old for off-campus student housing.

Also note, that the University precinct is only 25-35% African-American when looking at Census tract maps, versus 58% in the Statesboro precinct that falls within the City of Statesboro, on the Western/ Northwestern part of the City.

Pittman Park: University situated precinct:

1,944 HRC (59.2% D), 1,108 Trump (33.7% R)        + 25.5% D

[NOVA Green]

Atlantic Coastal Conference- Atlantic

Florida State University:

Tallahassee, Florida:

City without split precincts:

43,877 HRC (67.9% D), 17,002 Trump (26.3% R)           + 41.6% D

City only including split precincts:

26,440 HRC (61.4% D), 14,406 Trump (33.4% R)           + 28.0% D

City including both split precincts and city only precincts:

70,317 HRC (65.3% D), 31,408 Trump (29.2% R)            + 36.1% D

Since unfortunately there are so many split precincts we'll have to go with the combined number, although it likely slightly overstates the Republican percentage within the City (Areas outside of the City completely went (47.0% D and 48.5 % R)

Now what about the undergrad FSU vote on campus?

Precincts 2503, 1507, and 1314 are located on the FSU campus:

2,427 HRC (60.1% D), 1,367 Trump (33.9% R)                +26.7% D

If we look at several neighboring precincts with large numbers of undergrad students...

1301/1302: (66% D- 28% R)
1303/2502/2504 --- including the FSU football stadium-   (66% D- 25% R)
2506- (65% D- 26% R)

So interestingly enough it looks like the FSU "dorm vote" was slightly more Republican than the City at large, the "off campus" undergrad vote about as Democratic, but Trump performed worse, with significant 3rd Party defections....

Now, since Tallahassee is a major College/University town beyond just FSU, I would be remiss not to take a look at some other large educational facilities in the City.

Florida A & M University, one of the oldest historically African-American Universities in the US....

Precinct 1309 (Located on the campus of FAMU):

1,753 HRC (95.2% D), 33 Trump (1.8%), 55 Others (3.2%)....      + 93.4% D
Trump actually lost to combined 3rd Party voters here.

Precinct 1313: (Located directly adjacent to FAMU)

1,621 HRC (92.5% D), 81 Trump (4.6%)                                      +87.9% D


Now meanwhile down the Road to the West of FSU....

Tallahassee Community College:

Precincts 2305/2358:   (Located on the campus of TCC and adjoining neighborhoods)

3,511 HRC (74.6% D), 909 Trump (19.3% R)                              + 55.3% D

So the Community college vote appears to have gone not only to the Left of the FSU vote, but to the Left of the City of Tallahassee vote as a whole......

So I think this gives us a pretty good idea of the Millennial vote in Tallahassee, which is one of the largest student concentrations within Florida, not to mention compared to most other Cities in the US....

[NOVA Green]

Atlantic Coastal College- Coastal:

University of Miami:

Coral Gables, Florida:

15,875 HRC (56.3% D), 11,183 Trump (39.7% R)                + 16.6% D


What about the student precinct(s)?

Precinct # 640 located on the campus of University of Miami:

1,047 HRC (63.6% D), 531 Trump (32.3% R)                      + 31.3% D

Precinct # 612 located directly next to campus which is part of a census tract that is 88% 18-21 years old, and most of the remainder in their '20s....

568 HRC (61.8% D), 321 (34.9% R)                                   + 26.9% D

[NOVA Green]

Conference USA- East

Florida Atlantic University:

Boca Raton, Florida:


22,782 HRC (48.5% D), 22,769 Trump (48.4%)         + 0.1% D

So this is an interesting one, an although Boca Raton doesn't really fit the conventional definition of a "college" or "University Town", neither do some of the other cities that are home to Division I-A Football teams....

Actually looking at the numbers I really suspect that Boca Raton actually was likely a City that flipped from Romney '12 > HRC '16 and would likely fall on the list of "wealthier places that swung towards Clinton".... I'll probably take a look at those numbers at some point here. since I can pull a precinct report for all of Florida for 2012, but will still need to play around with the precinct changes between '12 and '16 for coding purposes....

Much of Boca Raton consists of upper-income White voters, and this number is likely understated when looking at the Median Household Income (MHI) for the City and various Census tracts, since retirees frequently have relatively modest incomes, even as they own Millions of dollars worth of property and assets, such as the expensive beach homes along the SE Coast of Palm Beach County.

Regardless, it's pretty clear that HRC only won Boca Raton because of the student vote....

University Campus Precinct.... (Located almost entirely on campus). 88% 18-21 Yrs Old

Precinct # 4166:

1,170 HRC (65.0% D), 558 Trump (31.0%)             + 34.0% D

Near campus in a Census Tract that is 60% 18-29 Yrs....

Precinct # 4188:

825 HRC (57.8% D), 549 Trump (38.4% R)             + 19.4% D

[NOVA Green]

Ok.... updated Chart....

Still missing:

Most of these are larger cities where amalgamating precinct level results can frequently be a bit more of a headache for various reasons (Although there are many times I have spent as long dealing with relatively small cities because of various other complicating factors when it comes to precinct coding by municipality....

Arizona: Tucson & Tempe
Texas: Austin, Waco, Dallas, Houston, Denton, San Antonio, San Marcos
New Mexico: Albuquerque
Nevada: Las Vegas
Hawaii: Honolulu
Florida: Tampa, Orlando
Tennessee: Memphis, Mursfreesboro, Nashville
Kentucky: Louisville, Lexington
Georgia: Atlanta
Virginia: Blacksburg
North Carolina: Charlotte
Alabama: Birmingham, Mobile
Indiana: South Bend
South Carolina: Conway

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- since I just bought a new PC yesterday, which is significantly faster than the old "pea-brained dinosaur" kid computer I have been using for the past year plus to run data, I decided to grab a comprehensive '16 GE precinct level data set for Florida yesterday, and then today decided to grab a '16 GE data set for Tennessee....

Fortunately in the case of the former the SoS office was happy to provide, in the case of the latter had to spend about 15 minutes copying massive lines of CSV data to the point my index finger was getting numb, before I could convert select files into an Excel based format, let alone do all of the precinct level coding for individual counties that I am looking at....

So Tennessee has been in the National political news a lot lately what with the Corker retirement and Corker-Trump feud, not to mention a failed attempted White Supremacist march through the streets of Murfreesboro, Tennessee that was cancelled before it even happened, because local folks weren't too crazy about that crap...

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/28/us/tennessee-white-nationalist-rally-shelbyville-murfreesboro/index.html

So, while I was trying to pull up the precinct results for Rutherford County, Tennessee (Murfreesboro), I was wondering what their strategic angle was here....

My assumption is that the alt.right activists that are currently effectively in a leadership role, by virtue of "mainstreaming" certain concepts to the largest current generation of Americans (Millennials) were hoping for a compare and contrast moment where they might meet a different reaction from a relatively Conservative Trump University County in Tennessee compared to an extremely Liberal college University town in Charlottesville, to see if they would get a different reaction....

Well, apparently they did pull out of the rally, so my assumption is that the test failed....

Still, let's see what the actual election numbers look like from Murfreesboro----

This was an extremely frustrating endeavor trying to code precincts by municipality, plus various places that appeared as split precincts, so will post the precinct numbers that I coded for a peer review, for others to examine in case I accidentally miscoded precincts....

Conference USA- EAST

Middle State Tennessee University:

Murfreesboro, Tennessee:

So I coded the following precincts as Non-Split precincts: (4-2; 14-1; 15-1; 15-2; 16-1; 16-2; 17-1; 17-2; 17-3; 18-1; 21-1; 21-2)

9,562 HRC (43.5% D), 11,022 Trump (50.2% R)             + 6.7% R

Coded the following as Murfreesboro Split Precincts (7-2, 13-1, 14-2, 16-3, 18-2, 20-2)

5,602 HRC (32.9% D), 10,543 Trump (62.0% R)             + 29.1% R

If we were to combine the precincts within the City with split precincts we would likely see something like the following:

Murfreesboro (City + Split)

15,164 HRC (38.9% D), 21,565 Trump (55.3% R)           + 16.4% R

I suspect that likely the overall City numbers would likely equate to a 10-12% Trump win, assuming I coded my precincts correctly.... Looking forward to any Tennessee Volunteers (Or from anywhere else for that matter to jump in and take a look at the numbers in greater detail.....)

So one thing that is really interesting about Rutherford County, TN is that the Democratic voting base isn't as big in the University town as it is in the fast growing Nashville Exurbs of La Vergne, where I think HRC won by a decent margin in '16....

Meanwhile, how are the College Students voting at Middle Tennessee State University?

We have two precincts located basically on the MTSU Campus....

Precinct 17-1:

971 HRC (51.7% D), 743 Trump ( 39.6%)            + 12.1% D

Precinct 17-3:

150 HRC (67.3% D), 45 Trump (20.2%)               +57.1% D

[NOVA Green]

Annapolis voted for Trump while Anne Arundel County went for Clinton? I never would've guessed that

Well Annapolis is likely in need of a more detailed examination....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5864192#msg5864192

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5865137#msg5865137

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2155202#msg2155202

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2156150#msg2156150

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2156167#msg2156167

So, it appears that Annapolis is one of those Cities where it is difficult to dissect the actual vote within the City from the rest of the County because of sloppy election reporting....

EV tends to heavily favor Dems in Anne Arundel County, but without being about to crack the numbers down to individual precinct/municipal level we're shooting darts at the board blind....

I suspect that there might be a way to reverse engineer the numbers if we can determine the ED/EV vote down to a precinct level, and if not at least look at swings by precinct and RV vs actual voters to at least be able to recreate a "missing vote by precinct" math equation for modelling purposes....

[NOVA Green]

SEC- EAST

Vanderbilt University:

Nashville, Tennessee:

138,931 HRC (60.9% D), 75,853 Trump (33.3% R)             + 27.6% D

Ok---- Nashville was initially tricky because of whole Joint City-Davidson County mayoral jurisdiction thing, which I'm not used to....

So I defaulted to what is now considered to be the standard municipal boundaries of the City of Nashville, that essentially includes the entire County, with the exception of six municipalities: (Ridgetop, Goodlettsville, Berry Hill, Belle Meade, Oak Hill, and Forest Hills)....

I backed out the the results from these places from the total County vote total, as well as the 6.5k absentee votes not coded by precinct, and the 1.3k Write-In votes coded to minor party write-in candidates....

If rural and Uninc parts of Davidson County want to be part of the City of Nashville, so be it, and good for them. since it gives them access to resources that would otherwise would not be available, and also helps support the tax base of the City....

Obviously Nashville is a heck of a lot more than just Vanderbilt, and overall the Metro area is now some 1.6 Million people, and the largest in the State, with about 600k residing within the municipal boundaries of Nashville....

Ok, how did Vanderbilt Student Precincts Vote?

Vanderbilt University Campus:

Precinct 18-01:

113 HRC (83.7% D)-----    12 Trump (8.9% R)     +74.8% D

Ok---- apparently the vast majority of students don't live in on campus dorms....

So where is the student off-campus housing?

Precinct 21-11: (90% 18-21 Yrs) roughly located with the River to North, Ed Temple Blvd to the East, Albion St to the South and 39th Ave N to the West:

1,254 HRC (97.1% D), 15 Trump (1.2%), Others (1.7%)                   + 95.9% D

Ok---- so these numbers were a bit astounding and we look at Census Tract Tract 013602 and see that it is 77% African-American and 17% White... compare that against the overall undergraduate admission and State enrollment numbers....

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#undergradstudentpopulation

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#enrollmentbystate


Precinct 21-4: (80% 18-19 yrs)   Located with Hinkle Drive to the East, West End Avenue to the South, I-40 to the West, and Charlotte Pike to the North.

Appears to be about 85%+ White:

932 HRC (62.1% D), 412 Trump (27.4% R)                              + 34,7% D

Precinct 21-3: located with I-40 W to the North , 18th- 20th Ave to the East, Charlotte Pike to the South, and I-40 to the West....

Appears to be about 62% White and 19% African-American....

892 HRC (89.0% HRC), 62 Trump (6.2% R)                             + 82.8% D


So what I suspect that we are seeing is that many of the White College students at Vanderbilt come from out of State, and out of region, and vote absentee in their home states (As I did as an undergrad a few decades back going to College in other State)....

Still it's pretty clear that White Students at Vanderbilt voted to the Left of the City as a whole, and significantly more Democratic than both the White population within the City, Tennessee, and Whites within the United States of America....

Overall students at Vanderbilt most likely voted more Democratic than in any other SEC-EAST campus, other than the University of Georgia, or possibly the University of Florida....

[NOVA Green]

American Athletic Conference- West

University of Memphis:

Memphis, Tennessee:

157,530 HRC (75.3% D), 44,639 (21.3% R)                               + 74.0% D

So, now we need to look at the "Student Precincts" around the University of Memphis....

These would include precincts 57, 46-2, 67-1, 67-3, 58-1, 68-3

Now the interesting thing about the East Memphis-Colonial-Yorkshire precincts here is that there is fairly old and White population within these Census tracts.... Only about 50% within core census tracts are 18-21 year students....

If we combine the overall numbers for the "core" campus precincts we see the following:

6,037 HRC (45.4% D), 6,474 Trump (48.6% R)                      + 3.2% R

Not familiar at all with the University of Memphis and to what extent it is a commuter school, but this University actually raises more questions than answers....

Maybe someone has more detailed information to contribute?

[NOVA Green]

PAC 12 South:

University of Arizona:

Tucson Arizona:

Tucson (Without Split Precincts)

97,403 HRC (62.2% D), 47,376 Trump (30.3% R)                         + 31.9% D

Tucson (Only Split Precincts)

28,567 HRC (54.8% D), 19,946 Trump (38.3% R)                         + 16.5% D

Total Tucson:  (including both precincts solely within City limits and split precincts that include a part of the City, as unincorporated areas outside)...

125,970 HRC (60.4% D), 67,322 (32.3% R)                              + 28.1% D


Now these numbers likely slightly overstate the Republican share of the total vote and understate the Democratic share, since many of these precincts contain relatively small slivers of Tucson and much larger chunks of suburban type housing outside of the City...

Still, it would only make a small difference on the margins regardless, and since we're not have a discussion about "Who won Tucson Arizona", I don't feel like going through the extensive effort involved to create precinct level modelling to figure out the "exact" estimated percentages....


What about the Student Precinct(s)?

Precinct # 62: University of Arizona Campus--- "Dorm Vote plus a bit of off-campus"

(Speedway Blvd to the North, N. Campbell Ave to the East, E Broadway Blvd to the South, N. Euclid Ave to the West):

896 HRC (74.2% D), 193 Trump (16.0% R)              + 58.2%   D

Precinct # 42: Located North of Speedway  "North University Neighborhood".... Combined 80% 18-29 population:

1,775 HRC (74.8% D), 385 Trump (16.2%)              + 58.6 % D

Precinct # 44: "West University Neighborhood"

1,092 HRC (76.8% D), 204 Trump (14.3% R)           + 62.5 % D

So what's interesting here is that a heavily Anglo undergraduate student body voted so significantly to the "Left" of the City of Tucson, which after all in many ways is considered to be a Minority, but plurality South West Anglo City, which is after all over 40% Latino....

Considering that many of these student voters are home-state residents, who will likely stick around in Arinzona, not to mention California Expat college kids that will likely stay in the region to obtain knowledge sector jobs in a pretty dynamic and versatile statewide economy, these numbers don't look good for the future of Republican dominance in Arizona, that is increasingly dependent upon a fading generation of Southern California retirees as their key electoral base within the State.

[NOVA Green]

SEC- EAST

Vanderbilt University:

Nashville, Tennessee:

138,931 HRC (60.9% D), 75,853 Trump (33.3% R)             + 27.6% D

Ok---- Nashville was initially tricky because of whole Joint City-Davidson County mayoral jurisdiction thing, which I'm not used to....

So I defaulted to what is now considered to be the standard municipal boundaries of the City of Nashville, that essentially includes the entire County, with the exception of six municipalities: (Ridgetop, Goodlettsville, Berry Hill, Belle Meade, Oak Hill, and Forest Hills)....

I backed out the the results from these places from the total County vote total, as well as the 6.5k absentee votes not coded by precinct, and the 1.3k Write-In votes coded to minor party write-in candidates....

If rural and Uninc parts of Davidson County want to be part of the City of Nashville, so be it, and good for them. since it gives them access to resources that would otherwise would not be available, and also helps support the tax base of the City....

Obviously Nashville is a heck of a lot more than just Vanderbilt, and overall the Metro area is now some 1.6 Million people, and the largest in the State, with about 600k residing within the municipal boundaries of Nashville....

Ok, how did Vanderbilt Student Precincts Vote?

Vanderbilt University Campus:

Precinct 18-01:

113 HRC (83.7% D)-----    12 Trump (8.9% R)     +74.8% D

Ok---- apparently the vast majority of students don't live in on campus dorms....

So where is the student off-campus housing?

Precinct 21-11: (90% 18-21 Yrs) roughly located with the River to North, Ed Temple Blvd to the East, Albion St to the South and 39th Ave N to the West:

1,254 HRC (97.1% D), 15 Trump (1.2%), Others (1.7%)                   + 95.9% D

Ok---- so these numbers were a bit astounding and we look at Census Tract Tract 013602 and see that it is 77% African-American and 17% White... compare that against the overall undergraduate admission and State enrollment numbers....

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#undergradstudentpopulation

https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/profile/#enrollmentbystate


Precinct 21-4: (80% 18-19 yrs)   Located with Hinkle Drive to the East, West End Avenue to the South, I-40 to the West, and Charlotte Pike to the North.

Appears to be about 85%+ White:

932 HRC (62.1% D), 412 Trump (27.4% R)                              + 34,7% D

Precinct 21-3: located with I-40 W to the North , 18th- 20th Ave to the East, Charlotte Pike to the South, and I-40 to the West....

Appears to be about 62% White and 19% African-American....

892 HRC (89.0% HRC), 62 Trump (6.2% R)                             + 82.8% D


So what I suspect that we are seeing is that many of the White College students at Vanderbilt come from out of State, and out of region, and vote absentee in their home states (As I did as an undergrad a few decades back going to College in other State)....

Still it's pretty clear that White Students at Vanderbilt voted to the Left of the City as a whole, and significantly more Democratic than both the White population within the City, Tennessee, and Whites within the United States of America....

Overall students at Vanderbilt most likely voted more Democratic than in any other SEC-EAST campus, other than the University of Georgia, or possibly the University of Florida....

Actually, over 95% of Vandy students live on campus.  The only explanation for precinct 18-01 is that very few actually vote at their precinct address (it's worth noting that TN requires a TN ID or a US Passport (which legally also means that you can't drive on an out-of-state license).  Plus, there are a significant number of live-in faculty members on Vandy's campus that would likely vote in precinct 18-01 as well (it also includes some areas to the west of campus).

Vandy is also the exact sort of campus that someone like Rubio would have done significantly better than Trump.  I would guess that Vandy was probably about 55-30 Clinton with a strong third party vote this year.  But, Rubio might have won undergraduates.

Several items here---

1.) I have some serious questions about the statement regarding 95% of Vandy students living on-campus....

If that is the case, then why is precinct 21-11 about 90% 18-21???

Why is precinct 21-4 80% 18-29 years old?

Precinct 21-3 also appears to be a heavily Vandy University precinct as well...

2.) So the total student enrollment of Vanderbilt University in Nashville is 12.7k (2014 numbers)....

This would mean that ~ 12k students would be residing in "On Campus: housing" to meet the 95% criteria....

The numbers appear to show maybe 25-30% of the student population living within the Census tracts that are part of the "Dorm Vote"

So where is the gap?

Now, Vanderbilt appears to be split roughly 50-50 between a Undergrad and Grad Student population (Well befitting of an academic institution of this caliber)....

3.) So is precinct 21-11 predominately "townies" that work service level jobs at the University, despite an overwhelmingly African-American 18-29 Yr demographic within the Census tract?

4.) Why is precinct 21-4 that is 85% White and 80% younger voters 62 D- 27 R?

5.) I get the concept that potentially Grad students at Vanderbilt might vote more heavily Democratic than the overall Undergrad population, but at this point I haven't seen any evidence to show that this is the case....

6.) This is your neighborhood, so my apologies for asking logical questions based upon the precinct level data, and Census data that we have publicly available...

My goal with starting this thread was always intended as a subject of rigorous Political Science academic debate and discussion, since I have no real ax to grind nor hidden agenda in my endeavors to contribute to the overall Political Science "Body of Knowledge" when it comes to discussion and analysis where precinct level data is frequently overshadowed by a much lazier approach which is simply looking at County level swings, ignoring the communities that make up all of the counties of our Great Nation....

7.) Not sure if you have ever played Tennis much (joke), but actually really curious about your insights into Vanderbilt and Nashville...

Personally, you are one of my favorite posters from Tennessee on Atlas when it comes to election result related discussions regarding the Volunteer State, especially when it comes down to drilling into County/Municipal/Regional related items....

8.) OT--- Personally as a decades long fan of the "Outlaw Country" sound, would love to take a vacation for a week with my wife in Nashville and check out the City and the gigs, not to mention a side trip to the Waylon and Willie Museum....

[NOVA Green]

University of Alaska - Fairbanks isn't actually in Fairbanks (rather, it is in College, Alaska).

College, Alaska CDP (no postal vote)
Trump - 1,539 (45.6%)
Clinton - 1,395 (41.3%)

Excellent work as always reagente when it comes to pulling up precinct level data by municipality!

So I think this not only should be considered "official results" for the Flagship University question the nclib brought up, but additionally potentially the results from the "Dorm Vote" combined with neighboring off-campus precincts that include a significant number of 18-29 year old population that are students and Grad Students of the University....

Either way, will up to the spreadsheet to consider this the official results from the municipality in which the University is located, and maybe a bit later try to add the data to a separate spreadsheet that I just started developing regarding votes in student precincts ("Dorm Votes" and "Off Campus Votes", which was always my intention when I first started this thread....

Obviously cities like LA, Houston, Atlanta, Memphis, etc are not the best representation of the University Vote within these large cities and communities, let alone more obscure places such as Boise, Salt Lake City, Lincoln, Buffalo, etc....

What I was thinking would be an interesting 3rd Wave of the project

Wave 1.) City results by I-A Division Teams

Wave 2.) Precinct Level results for the Dorm and Off-Campus University Districts

Wave 3.) Comparing and contrasting vote patterns and overall turnout levels in '08/'12/'16 to see if there were increases/decreases in total student vote, shifts between support for the two major political parties, as well as the segment of 3rd Party Votes in '16, which in many parts of the Country appears to be very high compared to any election over the past few decades....

[NOVA Green]

Annapolis voted for Trump while Anne Arundel County went for Clinton? I never would've guessed that

Well Annapolis is likely in need of a more detailed examination....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5864192#msg5864192

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5865137#msg5865137

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2155202#msg2155202

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2156150#msg2156150

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88089.msg2156167#msg2156167

So, it appears that Annapolis is one of those Cities where it is difficult to dissect the actual vote within the City from the rest of the County because of sloppy election reporting....

EV tends to heavily favor Dems in Anne Arundel County, but without being about to crack the numbers down to individual precinct/municipal level we're shooting darts at the board blind....

I suspect that there might be a way to reverse engineer the numbers if we can determine the ED/EV vote down to a precinct level, and if not at least look at swings by precinct and RV vs actual voters to at least be able to recreate a "missing vote by precinct" math equation for modelling purposes....

I might be missing something, but isn't every precinct in Annapolis Democratic? Where's this Annapolis voted Republican coming from?

Apologies for the delayed response on this question.... upgraded my laptop last weekend and had files scattered everywhere, including my precinct file from Anne Arundel County...

So, I believe that the precinct numbers that I pulled were from the MD Secretary of State Election website, that excluded a major chunk of the population that voted absentee or early voters....

I suspect that the variance might potentially be from different data sets that you have pulled that show a final vote by precinct, including EVs and Absentees, versus the numbers that I pulled....

Now, do you have a list of precincts that fall solely and/or partially within the City of Annapolis in 2016?

It does seem counter-intuitive that Annapolis voted 'Pub in '16, when the overall County flipped, but still East Shore Maryland precincts in the County swung towards Trump, while Baltimore and DC upper-income Exurbs swung towards HRC....

It appears that Anne Arundel County has some historic issues over the past decade or so when it comes to transparent election reporting, so if you could shed more light on the subject, that would be much appreciated....

[NOVA Green]

PAC 12 SOUTH:

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY:

TEMPE, ARIZONA:

37,240 HRC (57.6% D), 21,085 (32.6%)      + 25.0% D

How did the students vote???

We have a few precincts located on-campus, as well as quite a few off-campus with a high percentage of College students...

Precinct 312: "Hudson"

1,275 HRC (67.0% D), 409 Trump (21.5% R)          + 45.5% D

Precinct 642: Tempe:


335 HRC (59.2% D), 181 Trump (32.0%)                +27.2% D

So what's happening in off-campus student ghetto precincts???

Precinct 323: Jentilly:

1,334 HRC (60.8% D), 619 TRUMP (28.2%)            + 32.6% D

Precinct 416: Mitchell Park:

1,086 HRC (72.8% D), 244 Trump (16.4% R)          + 56.4 % D

So even though we might have a few split precincts here and there in Tempe and Phoenix, Tempe not only went (58-33 D) in '16, but also additionally exceeded the numbers from Phoenix (53-39 D)

Trump appears to have has lost by even more significant margins among the heavily Anglo student population at ASU....

One must wonder to what extent the SoCal aging retirees in places like Mesa that vote in precincts named "Gene Autrey", "Longbow", "Old West", and "Tonto", will continue to be a significant segment of the Metro Phoenix electorate 10-15 years from now....

Mesa voted only (53-37 R)     + 16 % R in '16.... Not good numbers for the 'Pubs even there....

[NOVA Green]

Grand Forks, North Dakota:
Trump - 11,759 (50.6%)
Clinton - 9,007 (38.8%)

Precincts "Alerus 05" and "ICON Arena/Park District Office 04" were split between Grand Forks and what seems to be unincorporated Grand Forks County, but the vast majority of the population is in Grand Forks proper, so I've included it here.

Looks about like the numbers that I saw running the precinct data from Grand Forks a month back, and you've obviously spent a bit more time doing a comprehensive examination, so unless anyone else has better numbers, this should likely be considered the "official results" from Grand Forks, without going insane into division of votes from a split precinct....

Curious about Grand Forks results from '08/'12 since it looks like Trump numbers were pretty week here, regardless of Clinton bombing in '16....

[NOVA Green]

PAC 12- South Complete!!!!

Interestingly enough Tempe is the most Republican City in the PAC-12 South, not to even mention the PAC-12 North (Even though Trump only bagged 33% of the vote in Tempe....)



At some point I will try to add University Precincts to the list/map, since who knows what the hell is going on in student precincts in LA, compared to the overall City vote total....

In terms of PAC-12, pretty sure that UW precincts will vote to the Left of Seattle, U of O precincts likely Trump places 3rd, UC- Berkely precincts (Would not be surprised if Trump placed 4th or 5th), Stanford would not be surprised if Trump placed 3rd, Oregon State University--- combined 3rd Party Votes likely beat Trump for 3rd.... University of Colorado would not be surprised if Trump placed 3rd in Campus precincts....

So anyways--- been wanting to finalize PAC-12 numbers for awhile, and took be over 24 hours to run Maricopa Count numbers converting some 150,000 rows from a CSV format into Excel that included every election from County Dogcatcher, to random judges, which was a huge pain in the arse, even regarding the normal issues like trying to code precincts by municipality....

So of all of the Universities in the PAC-12 it appears that Arizona State University likely had the highest share of support for Trump among college students, unless we see results from UCLA and USC that show otherwise...

[NOVA Green]

So based on Reagente's contribution for Lexington, Kentucky, we appear to have a completed SEC-East result by municipality...

Looks like Lexington voted more Democratic than Knoxville, Tennessee....



Now my question for any Atlasian posters out there, is there a legit site to obtain Kentucky precinct level results???

I might have imagined that election results would be more transparent with Grimes as the head of the SoS department in Kentucky, but honestly this is one of the worst states in the Union when it comes to easily obtaining precinct level results....

This trend transcends partisan ideology, since we frequently have Republican States/Counties that do extremely detailed precise returns and Democratic States/Counties that do the same....

We can flip some coins, and see the situation reversed....

I believe that all American Citizens and Voters deserve 100% transparency regarding election data down to the precinct level that is free available and on demand that includes detailed mapping data....

This is obviously something that perhaps only the Federal Government can mandate and provide the financial resources to make available to State Governments to divide the resources to County level Governments as part of a Funnel-Up or Funnel-Down scenario....

[NOVA Green]

Annapolis voted for Trump while Anne Arundel County went for Clinton? I never would've guessed that

snip

I might be missing something, but isn't every precinct in Annapolis Democratic? Where's this Annapolis voted Republican coming from?

Apologies for the delayed response on this question.... upgraded my laptop last weekend and had files scattered everywhere, including my precinct file from Anne Arundel County...

So, I believe that the precinct numbers that I pulled were from the MD Secretary of State Election website, that excluded a major chunk of the population that voted absentee or early voters....

I suspect that the variance might potentially be from different data sets that you have pulled that show a final vote by precinct, including EVs and Absentees, versus the numbers that I pulled....

Now, do you have a list of precincts that fall solely and/or partially within the City of Annapolis in 2016?

It does seem counter-intuitive that Annapolis voted 'Pub in '16, when the overall County flipped, but still East Shore Maryland precincts in the County swung towards Trump, while Baltimore and DC upper-income Exurbs swung towards HRC....

It appears that Anne Arundel County has some historic issues over the past decade or so when it comes to transparent election reporting, so if you could shed more light on the subject, that would be much appreciated....

Unless my source map is off, the precincts in question are 6-1 through 6-8, and 6-11, through 6-18.

Annapolis (no early vote?)
Clinton - 6,644 (63.0%)
Trump - 3,017 (28.6%)

So although I am not doubting your data at all, we have the following as the official Anne Arundel precinct map from 2014... This actually adds further confusion to the discussion, but wanted to post regardless....



Now, we can pull up the official results for municipal (mayor elections in Annapolis back in '09):

https://www.annapolis.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/1019

Next pull up the following links for elections precincts in Anne Arundel for Municipal Elections in Annapolis:

https://www.annapolis.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/7786

The precinct numbers apparently have not changed for the City between '09 and '17 ( Meaning the '16 precinct numbers should be current)...

My numbers have the following precincts located within the City of Annapolis:

01-001
01-011
02-002
02-012
03-003
03-013
04-004
04-014
05-005
05-015
06-006
06-016


So, regardless of the EV vs ED numbers issue, why are our precinct numbers located within Annapolis so different, since apparently voters in Annapolis are still voting in the same election precincts in 2017 as they did in 2009?

[NOVA Green]

Annapolis voted for Trump while Anne Arundel County went for Clinton? I never would've guessed that

snip

I might be missing something, but isn't every precinct in Annapolis Democratic? Where's this Annapolis voted Republican coming from?

Apologies for the delayed response on this question.... upgraded my laptop last weekend and had files scattered everywhere, including my precinct file from Anne Arundel County...

So, I believe that the precinct numbers that I pulled were from the MD Secretary of State Election website, that excluded a major chunk of the population that voted absentee or early voters....

I suspect that the variance might potentially be from different data sets that you have pulled that show a final vote by precinct, including EVs and Absentees, versus the numbers that I pulled....

Now, do you have a list of precincts that fall solely and/or partially within the City of Annapolis in 2016?

It does seem counter-intuitive that Annapolis voted 'Pub in '16, when the overall County flipped, but still East Shore Maryland precincts in the County swung towards Trump, while Baltimore and DC upper-income Exurbs swung towards HRC....

It appears that Anne Arundel County has some historic issues over the past decade or so when it comes to transparent election reporting, so if you could shed more light on the subject, that would be much appreciated....

Unless my source map is off, the precincts in question are 6-1 through 6-8, and 6-11, through 6-18.

Annapolis (no early vote?)
Clinton - 6,644 (63.0%)
Trump - 3,017 (28.6%)

So although I am not doubting your data at all, we have the following as the official Anne Arundel precinct map from 2014... This actually adds further confusion to the discussion, but wanted to post regardless....



Now, we can pull up the official results for municipal (mayor elections in Annapolis back in '09):

https://www.annapolis.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/1019

Next pull up the following links for elections precincts in Anne Arundel for Municipal Elections in Annapolis:

https://www.annapolis.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/7786

The precinct numbers apparently have not changed for the City between '09 and '17 ( Meaning the '16 precinct numbers should be current)...

My numbers have the following precincts located within the City of Annapolis:

01-001
01-011
02-002
02-012
03-003
03-013
04-004
04-014
05-005
05-015
06-006
06-016


So, regardless of the EV vs ED numbers issue, why are our precinct numbers located within Annapolis so different, since apparently voters in Annapolis are still voting in the same election precincts in 2017 as they did in 2009?

I think the last three numbers for the precincts are identical, my map just has different numbers for the first two digits. My current theory is that they use different numbering for on and off election year precincts.

Whatever else, I'm certain that your precincts do not match the Annapolis 2016 results for the following reason:

All of Annapolis is in the 3rd Congressional District, yet not all of these precincts in 2016 voted for that congressional race:

01-001 - 3rd
01-011 - 2nd
02-002 - 4th
02-012 - 3rd
03-003 - 4th
03-013 - 4th
04-004 - 4th
04-014 - 4th
05-005 - 4th
05-015 - 4th
06-006 - 3rd
06-016 - 3rd

All of the precincts I listed, were, in the 2016 election, voting in the 3rd district.

Bolded the same conclusion that I was coming to this morning after further reflection....

My thought is that we take the precinct numbers from the '14 Precinct map, which I believe align with your precinct numbers, as the "official" numbers from Annapolis...

We still have the EV/ED issue to resolve, but at least I think we agree upon which precincts were used for the 2016 GE results.

We should be able to potentially model the EV/ED numbers if we can obtain total turnout numbers that include both numbers to estimate how many votes are outstanding from Annapolis....

BTW: I want to thank both you and PNM for calling this discrepancy out and to use a Poker term "keeping me honest" on the numbers here...

One of the main things that got me into Atlas 10 years ago was the quality of posters regarding detailed election data, combined with discussion and analysis....

I appreciate all of your contributions to the Forum, and will definitely go back and revise the numbers accordingly, although obviously we still need to drill down the EV/ED vote, especially considering the nature of active duty members of the USAF, which in this case is combined with a College/University student population....

Side note---- my foul up on the Annapolis numbers is a humbling lesson that recognizes both the strengths and potential weaknesses of transposing Municipal level election results in order to code precincts.... I should have caught the gap between the precinct map data and the Municipal Election precinct coding earlier, but defaulted to the municipal precinct numbers rather than the precinct map...

My sincere apologies since NOVA Green does not knowingly spread "fake news" (In this case inaccurate reporting of election returns), since the data is the data, the numbers are the numbers, regardless of how one chooses to interpret the data, election results are an objective fact....

[NOVA Green]

So, since I just ran the 2012 numbers for Tempe...

2012: 33,265 Obama (55.6% D), 24,589 Romney (41.1% R)      +14.5% D   59,868 TVs
2016: 37,240 HRC (57.6% D), 21,085 Trump (32.6% R)              +25.0% D   64,615 TVs


So mixture of significant swings from Romney '12 voters to HRC '16 voters, combined with massive defection to the Left on the part of 3rd Party candidates...

[NOVA Green]

So, since I just ran the 2012 numbers for Tempe...

2012: 33,265 Obama (55.6% D), 24,589 Romney (41.1% R)      +14.5% D   59,868 TVs
2016: 37,240 HRC (57.6% D), 21,085 Trump (32.6% R)              +25.0% D   64,615 TVs


So mixture of significant swings from Romney '12 voters to HRC '16 voters, combined with massive defection to the Left on the part of 3rd Party candidates...

So looking at the same three overwhelmingly ASU Undergrad precincts:

2012: 4,053 Total Votes (61.9% D- 33.0% R)           + 28.9% D
2016: 4,663 Total Votes (63.1% D- 25.9% R)           + 37.2% D      (+ 8.3% D Swing)