Why do people think WA/OR will trend Republican?

[NOVA Green]

Anyway, even if there is a "realignment", the only scenario in which WA/OR would become more competitive would be if the Republican Party became as liberal or more liberal than the Democratic Party. I don't think Trump is really causing that to happen.

I don't think so. They vote for the Democratic Party largely on cultural issues. Pre-culture wars (before 1992 when the GOP embraced folks like Buchanan) they were much more likely to vote Republican than they are today.

Hillary Clinton won the highest recorded age bracket in both of these states (100k-200k) by over 20 percentage points. A Sandersized Democratic Party vs. GOP that's not reliant on the southern strategy and that has embraced climate change (Florida is too valuable to lose) will almost certainly make inroads with these voters and cause these states to shift closer into swing state status.

Sanders is actually a much better fit for WA/OR than Clinton was, and he wouldn't have lost some of the Obama voters in places like Tillamook and Cowlitz. It's not just the "culture wars", it's population growth and change. Seattle was a very different city in the early 90s, and places like Bellevue were actually somewhat Republican-leaning. As Seattle has become much more of a tech hub and grown in size, Democrats have gone from winning 2:1 to regularly getting over 80% of the vote. Republicans will not be able to make inroads with even more affluent voters here (except the ones who already vote Republican) unless they become much more socially liberal. Seattle is a fundamentally liberal/progressive city, and as long as Republicans struggle to crack 15% here, they have no chance in a national race in Washington.

Two things,

1. I'm not denying that Sanders platform plays well in these states in the short run, but these kind of voters will be the first to shift in a progressive realignment when it's their pocket books that are affected from higher taxes. Places like Arizona and New Mexico are not gonna retaliate against the Democrats in the same manner given that their support in those states reside primarily in working class populations. So yes, a Sanders Democratic Party will play well here...in the short run.

2. A leftward shift on cultural issues (actually an abandonment of a lot of it) is gonna characterize the GOP these next couple decades whether they like it or not. The cultural wars is a very baby boomer-specific phenomena. The GI generation did not give birth to the religious right or the New Left, and millennials are not at all interested in re-hashing their parents culture wars. When baby boomers (the children of the consciousness revolution and those who ushered in the rise of the New Left and the religious Right) start passing away then they'll have to appeal more and more to Xers, millennials, and Gen Z than they do now. This will fundamentally shift the tone of both political parties moving forward.

While I am hesitant to predict trending, considering the unknowns regarding policy and electoral coalition shifts between the two major political parties and how that will play out at a national level over the next decade or so, especially considering the unknowns of the lasting longevity of "Trumpism" within the Republican Party (Economically protectionist, rhetorically isolationist, and anti-immigrant to the point of accentuating racist themes and stereotypes) and the emergent progressive economic populist wing of the Democratic Party (Sanders style "Modern New Deal" type proposals), I am skeptical that the PNW will trend Republican in the near future for multiple reasons...

I'll leave my focus on Oregon, which arguably would be riper for a "Republican Trend" than Washington State, although many similarities apply.

1.) What Xingkerui said regarding Metro Seattle applies to Metro Portland. Trump only received 13% of the Vote in Portland, way down from the 23% that George W. received in 2004. It's also important to note that HRCs numbers stayed constant, even with almost 10% of the voters defecting to the Left!!!!

2.) It is true that there were some significant swings between '12 and '16 among upper-income precincts and communities in Metro-Portland, as I have detailed elsewhere, that might well swing back to a "normal" style of 'Pub Presidential nominee. These swings likely offset some of the swings towards Trump in parts of rural and downstate Oregon.

3.) What is often missing from discussion regarding Oregon, is the reality that in many ways it is still a relatively blue-collar and working-class state, compared to Washington and California. Regardless of the various stereotypes from Portlandia, this is also the case in Metro-Portland. There was virtually no gain in Republican % numbers in most WWC parts of Metro-PDX The main reason for the swings in some of these communities was a drop-off of Democratic Party support towards 3rd Party Candidates...

4.) This pattern also exists in most of the larger population centers of the State in WWC precincts and neighborhoods from Salem-Keizer, to Albany, to West Eugene, Springfield, etc...

5.) The WWC voters in the larger population centers rejected McCain/Romney/Trump. Why would that change with a new Republican candidate of any stripe?

6.) As others have noted the 'Pub vote is virtually maxed out in most of Eastern and Southern Oregon, and the population that is replacing the older voters doesn't have the same affinity for the Republican Party as their Grandparents. Even in Republican strongholds such as Malheur and Umatilla County, the share of the Latino population has been growing significantly, and many will start reaching voting age over the next decade.

7.) The same demographic pattern exists in the Mid-Willamette Valley (Yamhill/Polk/Marion Counties). These counties are at the core of the Republican base in the 5th Congressional District.

8.) Even if we look at some of the key areas where there were significant swings towards Trump, which includes many rural areas and Mill towns throughout Southern and Western Oregon, where Trump exceeded 'Pub margins over the past 20 years in many places, you're still looking at a large number of voters that supported Obama in '08/'12 and voted Merkley/Wyden in '14/'16. Kind of a risky proposition to assume that these voters will stay 'Pub in 2020, let along through the 2030s....

9.) So the theory that if the Pubs shift towards more moderate stances on social issues to win the Portland 'Burbs seems a bit bunk on the surface.... I mean the Oregon Republican Party has been running Moderate candidates in many races for a few decades now, and places like Washington County keep slipping further and further away from their grasp. If Republicans can't even win Statewide races running Moderate candidates and playing local politics, why would be expect that this strategy would work at this point in Oregon with a National candidate?

10.) Sure, could Oregon trend Republican in the near future? Well, it would require the national popular vote to shift significantly towards the Democratic Party, considering the both Romney and Trump lost Oregon by basically the same margins with very different messaging and themes. Even if the US Popular vote shifts Democrat in 2020/2024/2028, it's difficult to see how they keep their '12 or '16 coalition without losing the other leg of their coalition, which in Oregon would amount to essentially a debit/credit on their raw vote totals.

[NOVA Green]

This is something I've wondered myself.  I've often seen these states in the R column with future trend maps or realignment maps, and I'm not sure I buy that.

Even in the case of a realignment, I'm not sure I'm buying it, and that's even if the realignment is couched in generational theory as Timmy describes (which I do give him credit for the effort and time he's taken to write about this theory).  But even if we're presuming all this, I do think it's quite a bit too early to make any predictions in terms of what future coalitions will look like.  I do think that a future realignment is bound to happen at some point- after all, the current party system won't exist in perpetuity.  Notwithstanding that, I think what future coalitions emerge are much more in flux than people seem to think.

For example, yes- we could end up with something resembling an Eisenhower-era GOP with lots of Rockefeller Republicans (though even in this case, I'd expect WA/OR to be some of the last states to flip R, if they ever do.. they may just trend R and become swing states).  But what if we end up with both parties moving in a populist direction (somewhat of the inverse of the Gilded Age) and we have extreme party polarization based almost wholly on racial stratification, in a South African type system?

Now I suspect many would say that couldn't happen, mainly because you wouldn't want it to happen and a system like that probably sounds like quite an ugly one to many of you.  But whether we like it or not, I find it to be a distinct possibility.  I guess I am somewhat echoing Skill&Chance then, in that we could see national white block voting in the future, but where we differ, is I think that even if that happens, WA/OR may still vote D since it would have some of the least likely whites to vote R, even in an era of racial polarization.

One other point, I think NOVA Green mentioned this- in terms of the local weakness of the GOP.  This is something I've thought about as well; it seems local politicians have a much harder time making in roads in this region than a place, like say, New England.  In other words, Charlie Baker could win MA, but I'm not sure even he could win WA or OR.  Now obviously, there are many other variables at play here- Baker ran against a poor candidate and maybe all the pacific NW GOP candidates are joke candidates (I must admit some ignorance here, the pacific NW is one of my least knowledgeable areas), but it seems to me that some of these races should've been winnable (take, e.g., the 2010 OR gubernatorial).  For whatever reason, Baker could overcome the "taint" of the national party, so to speak, and WA/OR Republicans cannot.  That may be worth considering.

Finally, Skill&Chance- absolutely superb post at the top of this page, in re: culture wars, etc.  Very much agree and well done.

The reason the Oregon GOP cant win state wide races, is most of the times their primary process is controlled by the Eastern part of the state which is basically as conservative as Wyoming.

That is part of the equation Old School Republican, but only a fraction of the primary problem that the Republican Party faces in Oregon....

To do a brief historical summary of the political geography of Oregon, the Republican faced an intense and severe internal Civil War that roughly lasted six years, with the aftermath for a decade later.

So the 'Pubs went hard in the late '80s/Early '90s on items such as Anti-Gay and Abortion ballot initiatives. They essentially took control over the Oregon Republican Party by 1994, with the "Oregon Citizens Alliance" at the helm of what was a sinking ship, and singled the decline of the Republican Party at a competitive statewide level.

The OCA wing of the Republican Party, was not solely defined as an "Eastern Oregon" wing of the Party, but rather encompassed Republican voters from most of "downstate Oregon" including Southern Oregon and Mid-Valley regions as key areas of support of the new ascendant "Conservative Populist" wing of the the statewide Republican Party.

This naturally led to the eroding political brand of the Republican Party in key suburban counties in Metro-Portland, as well as a similar communities in places like Salem, Corvallis, Bend, and Eugene.

As Old School correctly noted, the trend of the 'Pub Party towards supporting extremist candidates for Federal and Statewide elections, contributed towards a direct causality of decline of party registration for Republicans, as the caliber of their candidates became extremely "radicalized" in order to win the Pub Primary process, creating various crops of candidates so extreme and nutzoid, that they couldn't come close generally to winning competitive elections in most parts of Oregon.

[NOVA Green]

this is exactly why I think Oregon will become a swing state in the future(prob not statewide but at a national level yes), as the GOP will become less religious meaning they will do much better in Oregon then they are doing now as the Religious right is a huge reason why Oregon is so dem. Washington on the other hand wont become a swing state(it will become lean Dem though) .


Statewide, Im not sure the GOP will ever recover unless they manage to curb the influence of the Rural parts of the state.

I think your concept of Oregon becoming a "swing state" is a bit far fetched, even by 2030 assuming  that somehow culturally liberal voters in places like the suburbs of Portland, Salem, Corvallis, and Eugene, start voting Republican again at a Presidential Level, that this will be sufficient to make Oregon a competitive state.

One might make a better case that these voters if they start shifting en masse, would make Oregon possibly voting Republican for Oregon Governor, and possibly at the US-House level, and *maybe* start to make up lost ground at the US-SEN level.

Old School--- your definition of "rural Oregon" is very different from mine. The vast majority of "rural" counties have a significant City anchor component. Typically, these areas tend to vote much more Democratic than Rural areas proper.

The reality is that these anchor cities in "rural Oregon" have shifted towards the Republicans more on perception of economic issues than social issues.

Dems shifting towards more of an outright economic populist message, will gain voters in "downstate" Oregon, and easily offset and 'Pub gains at the margins in wealthier precincts in places like West Portland, parts of Washington County, Lake Oswego, not to mention wealthier residents in places in the Hills outside of Eugene and Corvallis.

Sure,, the shift of the Republican Party as a statewide brand towards the Religious Right in the late '80s/ early '90s, with the Oregon Citizens Alliance and all of that homophobic crap they kept pushing, was a direct causality of the massive swings in these places over the next decade or so towards the Democratic Party. Still, it is only a part of the equation when one examines why these places started shifting hard Democratic. Honestly, I'm not convinced that simply "rebranding" the Republican Party will come close to recouping the lost voters in these communities.

The Iraq War was a major issue in the Pacific Northwest.... the lies and deceptions of the W. administration, and a weak President that allowed a small number of extremists ("The Vulcans") to dominate US foreign policy and cause and illegal and unjust war in Iraq, is a major component when you look at the flips in the educated suburbs of Portland, etc....

Oregon has always been a dovish State, from the days of Tom Maccoll and Mark Hatfield to the present day. I have posted elsewhere, that this is the key reason why Republican Senator Gordon Smith was unseated in '08....

It's also the same reason that both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump were able to perform so well in their respective Party primaries....

Meanwhile voters in the suburbs of Portland suburbs are more than happy to vote for minimum wage increases, increases in corporate tax levels, increasing taxes on those making > $250k/Yr, etc.

Not sure about a hypothetical plan to swing Oregon at a Presidential Level, unless the Republican candidates start acting and talking a lot more like Democrats, not just on social issues.

[NOVA Green]

this is exactly why I think Oregon will become a swing state in the future(prob not statewide but at a national level yes), as the GOP will become less religious meaning they will do much better in Oregon then they are doing now as the Religious right is a huge reason why Oregon is so dem. Washington on the other hand wont become a swing state(it will become lean Dem though) .


Statewide, Im not sure the GOP will ever recover unless they manage to curb the influence of the Rural parts of the state.

I think your concept of Oregon becoming a "swing state" is a bit far fetched, even by 2030 assuming  that somehow culturally liberal voters in places like the suburbs of Portland, Salem, Corvallis, and Eugene, start voting Republican again at a Presidential Level, that this will be sufficient to make Oregon a competitive state.

One might make a better case that these voters if they start shifting en masse, would make Oregon possibly voting Republican for Oregon Governor, and possibly at the US-House level, and *maybe* start to make up lost ground at the US-SEN level.

Old School--- your definition of "rural Oregon" is very different from mine. The vast majority of "rural" counties have a significant City anchor component. Typically, these areas tend to vote much more Democratic than Rural areas proper.

The reality is that these anchor cities in "rural Oregon" have shifted towards the Republicans more on perception of economic issues than social issues.

Dems shifting towards more of an outright economic populist message, will gain voters in "downstate" Oregon, and easily offset and 'Pub gains at the margins in wealthier precincts in places like West Portland, parts of Washington County, Lake Oswego, not to mention wealthier residents in places in the Hills outside of Eugene and Corvallis.

Sure,, the shift of the Republican Party as a statewide brand towards the Religious Right in the late '80s/ early '90s, with the Oregon Citizens Alliance and all of that homophobic crap they kept pushing, was a direct causality of the massive swings in these places over the next decade or so towards the Democratic Party. Still, it is only a part of the equation when one examines why these places started shifting hard Democratic. Honestly, I'm not convinced that simply "rebranding" the Republican Party will come close to recouping the lost voters in these communities.

The Iraq War was a major issue in the Pacific Northwest.... the lies and deceptions of the W. administration, and a weak President that allowed a small number of extremists ("The Vulcans") to dominate US foreign policy and cause and illegal and unjust war in Iraq, is a major component when you look at the flips in the educated suburbs of Portland, etc....

Oregon has always been a dovish State, from the days of Tom Maccoll and Mark Hatfield to the present day. I have posted elsewhere, that this is the key reason why Republican Senator Gordon Smith was unseated in '08....

It's also the same reason that both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump were able to perform so well in their respective Party primaries....

Meanwhile voters in the suburbs of Portland suburbs are more than happy to vote for minimum wage increases, increases in corporate tax levels, increasing taxes on those making > $250k/Yr, etc.

Not sure about a hypothetical plan to swing Oregon at a Presidential Level, unless the Republican candidates start acting and talking a lot more like Democrats, not just on social issues.

When you look at county by county , the rural parts of Oregon look just as Republican as the states like Idaho and Wyoming are .

Ill give you an example of elections in Oregon:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=41&year=1968
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=41&year=1996
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=41&year=2016


Looking county by county the GOP has pretty much dominated Eastern Oregon , do pretty well downstate , and other then a few counties like Wascow , and Morrow rural Oregon hasnt changed much. Its been mostly the suburbs what changed .

Define suburbs of where, and how they have changed?

My apologies if I am misrepresenting your argument in any way shape or form....

It sounds like you are pulling up a few relatively small rural counties in Eastern Oregon with both a rapidly aging Anglo population, as well as a rapidly increasingly Latino population younger than voting age about some sort of argument about trends in Oregon?

You do realize that the current counties located within the Oregon 2nd Congressional District are starting to become both increasingly voting age Latino, as well as in the largest counties in the district college educated Anglos (Deschutes & Jackson County)....

Your obsession with the suburbs of Metro Portland, once again indicates your extreme naivety and lack of understanding about the reality of the 50% of Oregonians that don't reside in Metro Portland....

The reality is that the Republican Party brand is basically dead gone and buried in places like Gresham, East Portland, Salem, Springfield, West Eugene, and other larger WWC towns and places throughout Oregon.

Sure, we can talk about major swings towards Trump in '16 in Mill Towns such as Toledo (Lincoln County), Warrenton (Clatsop Co), Cottage Grove (lane Co), etc.... but it does seem a bit imho that you are obsessively fixated on one small region of Oregon.

Let's face it.... Trump only captured 49% in Albany Oregon (Beating HRC by 8%), but most of the rest of the voters wrote in Bernie, or voted Green or Libertarian....

This is a City that only voted for Obama with 51% in '08, so hard to see how the results of the '16 election were solely a result of the "suburban vote".

Once again your obsession and unrealistic fixation on Metro PDX is blinding you to the reality of where the rest of us Oregonians actually live and work......

[NOVA Green]

So why has this thread regarding the potential for WA/OR to trend Republican somehow turned into a discussion regarding Dixiecrats, and items of that nature?

Sure I get the concept that if Southern Whites start swing a bit more Democratic at a National level, it will likely cause the PacNW to trend Republican, considering that likely they hit the floor with Trump as their Pres standard flag dude....

Still, OR and WA had some of the highest level of support for 3rd Party Candidates coming from the Left, so even in Southern and MidWest Whites start swinging back, there is a very good chance that Dem margins might actually pick up a few points in 2020 without HRC at the top of the ticket.

Sure WA/OR might trend Republican if there is a massive swing towards the Democratic candidate in the South and Midwest, but other than that trending if anything will be marginal or Non-existent in 2020 with Trump at the top of the 'Pub ticket, to put out my objective two cents piece....

Still, it does seem like a strange argument to make, considering that Trump has already essentially maxed out his vote in "downstate" Oregon, and unless somehow he were to massively improve in the suburbs of Portland and Seattle, and Upper-Income precincts within both Cities, it is difficult to see how we could hypothetically move the needle in either State in his positive direction. It is precisely the suburbs of Portland and Seattle where Trump could potentially hit a much deeper floor in 2020, whereas in the WWC communities where he maxed the 'Pub numbers in 2016 were mainly W./Obama/Trump voters, with maybe a crossover to Kerry or Romney in '04/'12 mixed in....

Not seeing how the math would work there, maybe someone could explain?