TheAtlantic: Can Millennials Save the Democratic Party? (2016 analysis)

[NOVA Green]

Well now new analysis is tending to show that Clinton won white college educated voters (overall, not just millennials)... which I have argued on this forum for months and was attacked quite vigorously by a certain poster or two.  The fact is that the trendlines are clear, there is one party that has a coalition that will swamp the other party in 10 years.  Hint - "white working class voters" or whatever PC term they are referred to as now, are not growing as a segment of the population... they decline every single election cycle... yet Republicans are doubling down on this group... this is not a sustainable long term strategy... at all...  Republicans just sticking their fingers in their ears and saying "but they're in swing states" need to realize that Iowa and Ohio won't be swing states forever and Democrats certainly won't need those states anyways.

Respectfully Sir, Clinton performing extremely well among White College Educated Voters (Is this a 4 year degree or a 2 year associates degree?) is in no way shape or form, a substitute for the dramatic collapse of WWC voters nationally....

There are a lot more working and middle-class White folk, many of whom voted for Obama once or twice, than there are wealthy people that swung heavily for Clinton between '12 and '16.

As Bill Clinton famously said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It's_the_economy,_stupid

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/09/06/bill-clinton-wonk-in-chief/?utm_term=.d266db2d8084

Millennials are currently a sliver of a much bigger pie.... We have yet to see the largest living generation in American History push the Football over the Goal Line on a 4th down.

I for one am not counting on the fickle attitudes of a future generation to deliver short and medium term results in any meaningful manner at the ballot boxes of America....

The Baby Boom generation thought they were "hot C**P" as well, and voted for Donald Trump by 5% Margins....

If you want to wait 20 years for the blooming of the Millennial generation, as part of a fictitious coalition of Millennials/ Wealthy White/ Latinos/Asians/African-American voters, to somehow win House/Senate/Gubernatorial and even Presidential races, there will be a ton of damage done....

There are a ton of White voters out there, that don't have four year degrees, many of whom don't have associates degrees, and quite a few as well that only have a High School Diploma.

If I understand your argument, then four out of my five daughters, four out of five partners/spouses are somehow ineligible for inclusion into your secret society of the "New Democratic Party" coalition.....

What about my grandchildren, one of whom is now 15, and Walter is only a few years away from graduating from High School, and regardless of his grades will likely face the choice of working for minimum wage, or going through the application and hopefully acceptance into Community College to learn some skills that can hopefully get him an entry level job competing against older workers with much more job experience?

Now--- you are absolutely correct that Iowa and Ohio are not Republican country forever, regardless of massive swings towards Trump in '16.

Quite frankly, I am a bit puzzled with your argument that Dems need to abandon OH and IA.... it also sounds like the Party should abandon Michigan, Wisconsin, and even places like New Hampshire and Maine..... Not even going to go into how the Democrats could lose two House seats in Oregon if your strategic plan is implemented in full.

WWC voters are part of the core of the Democratic Coalition, and if the Democratic Party chooses to abandon the roots of the Labor Movement and the New Deal Coalition, I will likely move to another Party that actually believes in fighting back against Corporate Greed, Wall Street speculation, Union-Busting, and ultimately a protection of all of the benefits that originated under FDR/New Deal/Great Recession and various Democratic Administrations over the years that fought to keep their promises to the working folks of America.

[NOVA Green]

Well now new analysis is tending to show that Clinton won white college educated voters (overall, not just millennials)... which I have argued on this forum for months and was attacked quite vigorously by a certain poster or two.  The fact is that the trendlines are clear, there is one party that has a coalition that will swamp the other party in 10 years.  Hint - "white working class voters" or whatever PC term they are referred to as now, are not growing as a segment of the population... they decline every single election cycle... yet Republicans are doubling down on this group... this is not a sustainable long term strategy... at all...  Republicans just sticking their fingers in their ears and saying "but they're in swing states" need to realize that Iowa and Ohio won't be swing states forever and Democrats certainly won't need those states anyways.

Respectfully Sir, Clinton performing extremely well among White College Educated Voters (Is this a 4 year degree or a 2 year associates degree?) is in no way shape or form, a substitute for the dramatic collapse of WWC voters nationally....

There are a lot more working and middle-class White folk, many of whom voted for Obama once or twice, than there are wealthy people that swung heavily for Clinton between '12 and '16.

As Bill Clinton famously said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It's_the_economy,_stupid

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/09/06/bill-clinton-wonk-in-chief/?utm_term=.d266db2d8084

Millennials are currently a sliver of a much bigger pie.... We have yet to see the largest living generation in American History push the Football over the Goal Line on a 4th down.

I for one am not counting on the fickle attitudes of a future generation to deliver short and medium term results in any meaningful manner at the ballot boxes of America....

The Baby Boom generation thought they were "hot C**P" as well, and voted for Donald Trump by 5% Margins....

If you want to wait 20 years for the blooming of the Millennial generation, as part of a fictitious coalition of Millennials/ Wealthy White/ Latinos/Asians/African-American voters, to somehow win House/Senate/Gubernatorial and even Presidential races, there will be a ton of damage done....

There are a ton of White voters out there, that don't have four year degrees, many of whom don't have associates degrees, and quite a few as well that only have a High School Diploma.

If I understand your argument, then four out of my five daughters, four out of five partners/spouses are somehow ineligible for inclusion into your secret society of the "New Democratic Party" coalition.....

What about my grandchildren, one of whom is now 15, and Walter is only a few years away from graduating from High School, and regardless of his grades will likely face the choice of working for minimum wage, or going through the application and hopefully acceptance into Community College to learn some skills that can hopefully get him an entry level job competing against older workers with much more job experience?

Now--- you are absolutely correct that Iowa and Ohio are not Republican country forever, regardless of massive swings towards Trump in '16.

Quite frankly, I am a bit puzzled with your argument that Dems need to abandon OH and IA.... it also sounds like the Party should abandon Michigan, Wisconsin, and even places like New Hampshire and Maine..... Not even going to go into how the Democrats could lose two House seats in Oregon if your strategic plan is implemented in full.

WWC voters are part of the core of the Democratic Coalition, and if the Democratic Party chooses to abandon the roots of the Labor Movement and the New Deal Coalition, I will likely move to another Party that actually believes in fighting back against Corporate Greed, Wall Street speculation, Union-Busting, and ultimately a protection of all of the benefits that originated under FDR/New Deal/Great Recession and various Democratic Administrations over the years that fought to keep their promises to the working folks of America.

To put it bluntly, I'd prefer if you just not respond to my posts anymore... You have vigorously made your point about white working class voters, I do not in any way shape or form agree with it and I am getting sick of your trollish obsession with this group, as if their interests somehow matter more than anyone elses and your innuendo that the Democratic party needs to continually placate these voters at the expense of others (and in fact, your assertion that WWC voters are the core of the party is no longer even close to true simply by looking at raw vote totals).  If you feel uncomfortable in a party that has changed from a largely union based lower income white party to a diverse college educated party then adieu.

Also, WWC's are no more "working folks" than the rest of us who go into work every day and often pay far more in taxes, so stop acting holier than thou.  Just because some of us believe in free trade does not mean we aren't also "working folks."  Indeed, many of us grew up in humble means and worked far harder than the people you refer to, to get to where we are now and don't blame our circumstances on illegal immigration... so I don't really care for your "secret society" nonsense...

Damn....freaking out a bit are we tonight???

Apologies for hurting your feelings, I am assuming I caught you on a bad night....

Not quite sure why are you accusing me of being a troll, simply because I fundamentally disagree with you on major substantive political policy issues.

Also your references to "blaming circumstances on illegal immigration" is quite frankly extremely bizarre and bewildering, since I have never once, nor have any of my family ever supported that racist crap.

I'm assuming that in your final paragraph you are talking about some of your family members?

NonSwingVoter--- not sure where all this is coming from, and I'll shoot you a PM so we can chat offline, since your response had very little to do with the original topic, and appeared to be more of an emotional response for whatever reason.

[NOVA Green]

Demographics are not nor have ever been destiny.

Political coalitions and partisan affiliations constantly shift.

Where will Millennial voters be 10-20 years from now politically speaking?

Imagine a scenario where this same question was posed back in 1968 or 1970 regarding the Baby Boomers?

What happened in 1984 among voters of that Generation?

Sure, it's pretty clear right now sitting in 2017 America, that Republican policies on a wide variety of issues is not especially popular with Millennial voters at large....

I'm still a bit skeptical on the concept that Millennials overall will really dramatically change the partisan political landscape 10-20 years down the line.

Sure on many social issues (Abortion and Guns excepted) we will likely see some benefits for the Democratic Party.

Foreign policy items, the Millennial generation appears to share more of classic isolationist platform when it comes to elective wars overseas (Totally understandable looking at the disproportionate burden placed as a result of the wars in Afghanistan & Iraq), but ate up the Iraq War II BS, because maybe it had something to do with 9/11 and the Twin Towers in NYC.

Economic Policy---- I don't have a ton of faith in Millennials. Overall, it appears, just like the Baby Boomers earlier, that they want to have their cake an eat it too....

They don't want to pay for national medical insurance, but expect to have comprehensive medical coverage. They are generally supportive of Free Trade and shop at Wal-Mart on a regular basis because of the "cheap prices", while meanwhile friends and family members have and are losing jobs, as a direct result of unfair foreign competition that is killing the manufacturing sector.

Maybe I'm missing something, but at this point it appears that overall the Millennial Generation is extremely lacking in any type of comprehensive political paradigm that is easily translatable into a true Progressive Democratic Party Coalition....

Sure, maybe I sound a bit harsh, especially on a Forum overwhelmingly dominated by Millennials (Although most of y'all are totally awesome and political Geeks that make me wish I had the ability to go back to Grad school!).

[NOVA Green]

Economic Policy---- I don't have a ton of faith in Millennials. Overall, it appears, just like the Baby Boomers earlier, that they want to have their cake an eat it too....

They don't want to pay for national medical insurance, but expect to have comprehensive medical coverage. They are generally supportive of Free Trade and shop at Wal-Mart on a regular basis because of the "cheap prices", while meanwhile friends and family members have and are losing jobs, as a direct result of unfair foreign competition that is killing the manufacturing sector.

Maybe I'm missing something, but at this point it appears that overall the Millennial Generation is extremely lacking in any type of comprehensive political paradigm that is easily translatable into a true Progressive Democratic Party Coalition....

Sure, maybe I sound a bit harsh, especially on a Forum overwhelmingly dominated by Millennials (Although most of y'all are totally awesome and political Geeks that make me wish I had the ability to go back to Grad school!).

Didn't millennials just break large for the socialist Jew from Vermont promising them single payer healthcare and rail against free trade agreements? I think you might be letting your age color your views here. I think Millennials are gonna be much more supportive progressive economic policies just based on their current economic situation. We're the least entrepreneurial generation in decades, we have less savings and more debt than past generations, our average earnings are much lower. All of this is despite the fact that we're the most educated generation in history. We're the group who felt the brunt of the great recession. I feel like we deserve a little more credit than this.

Welcome to the Forum!

Bolded your initial point....

It is true that Democratic Millennials and "true independent" Millennials broke heavily for Bernie during the Democratic Primaries, as well as to a lesser extent Republican leaning Millennials.

Although there is no question that was a core base of support for Bernie in the Democratic Primaries that either allowed open primaries, or easy ability to shift voter party affiliation to vote in the Democratic Primaries, this was actually an overall relatively small sliver of the Sanders Coalition, despite all of the associated media hype.

The core base of the Bernie primary coalition was a combination of rural, small-town, and Blue Collar Democrats, in areas outside of the Deep South the vast majority of whom were Middle-Aged Democrats (35-55).

Now, you do raise some extremely important points in your subsequent statements:

"I think Millennials are gonna be much more supportive progressive economic policies just based on their current economic situation. We're the least entrepreneurial generation in decades, we have less savings and more debt than past generations, our average earnings are much lower. All of this is despite the fact that we're the most educated generation in history. We're the group who felt the brunt of the great recession. I feel like we deserve a little more credit than this."

I absolutely agree that in many ways the Millennials face the worst short-term economic outlook of just about any Generation in modern American Political History....

It is true that Generational attitudes are frequently heavily shaped by the direct economic & foreign policy environment that they experienced in their younger years (Look at the Greatest Generation of my Grandparents dealing with the Great Depression and WW II back-to-back). The "Silent Generation"/"Baby Boomers" like my parents lived through the Vietnam War & Civil Rights Movement at a time of general economic prosperity and upwards mobility.

Me and my wife are both "Gen-Exers", which is essentially now a loosely discombobulation of what used to known as Gen-X and Gen-Y....  In terms of Social Issues, we were at the forefront of extremely Liberal attitudes towards sexuality, attended racially integrated public schools, experienced the downfall of the Soviet empire as the young generation, dealt with massive cutbacks to governmental funded social programs as part of the "Reagan Revolution", in an era where the divorce rate was hitting 50% and many of us grew up in single-parent households, explosion of the AIDS epidemic, where a number of Americans thought it was either "God's plan" or somehow communicable from sitting on public toilet seats. The War on Drugs was kicking in, that essentially meant a massive rate of imprisonment for non-violent drug offenses, including simply growing or selling small amounts of marijuana.

Also, as the "No Future" generation, we did create some pretty cool music in the form of Punk Rock, Hip-Hop, Heavy Metal, and other items as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_X

Still, my fundamental point had less to do with Millennials in general, and more about *where this generation will be in 10-20 years*....

I am still not convinced that the Millennial Generation will save the Democratic Party in the short, medium, nor long-term, although there are obviously some hopeful signs on certain issues.