Why didn't coal country flip to the GOP much earlier than it did?

[NOVA Green]

The complete electoral collapse (2012) only happened after a Democratic administration openly and gleefully pursued policies sure cause the collapse of most of the remains of the industry and then proceeded to gloat about it. Like, this isn't really a mystery everyone...

So Sibboleth, what happened in short, medium, and longer term electoral voting patterns in the UK (Midlands, Wales, etc...) after Thatcher destroyed the NUM after the massive Coal Miner Strike of '84-'85?

Although I am extremely supportive of the UMWA, and still have a camouflage UMWA T-Shirt that was given to me by a 3rd generation Ohio Coal Miner, because of solidarity work that I did at college in support of the strike of '93, that was basically an extension of the Pittston Strike of '89/'90 that shut down much of the Coal Production in Appalachia against the practice of "double-breasting" (Coal Operators shutting down Union mines/pits and opening up non-union mines a few hollers down, combined with shifting operations to open non-union giant pit-mines in Wyoming and elsewhere in the Mountain West....

So what in your opinion that the Obama administration did was seen as declaring war on Coal Country?

I don't recall anything specifically..... rather the "Free" trade agenda that Obama pursued, as most of his Democratic and Republican predecessors alike, allowed the "invisible hand of the market" to do its thing, and encouraging everything from oil pipelines from Canada, "fracking" and natural gas production, and supporting shipping literally boatloads of Wyoming Coal to China (Much of this produce leaves out of Ports in Oregon)....

I am sure there is still plenty of Union Coal in Appalachia to continue fueling the aging Coal Power Plants of America, where 33% of our energy supply is still based upon Coal....

If anything, the War on Coal is actually happened directly as a result of imports of Coal from other parts of the World, that is considered "cheaper", than buying locally produced Coal from our Union Mines of places in West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia, etc....

https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/how-much-coal-does-us-export-and-import

[NOVA Green]

The complete electoral collapse (2012) only happened after a Democratic administration openly and gleefully pursued policies sure cause the collapse of most of the remains of the industry and then proceeded to gloat about it. Like, this isn't really a mystery everyone...

So Sibboleth, what happened in short, medium, and longer term electoral voting patterns in the UK (Midlands, Wales, etc...) after Thatcher destroyed the NUM after the massive Coal Miner Strike of '84-'85?

I'll have a go at answering it but it's a more complex question than it sounds:

In areas that were particularly heavily hit by the closure of heavy industry (including coal) that still haven't recovered are still solidly Labour but more by default than anything else. Labour's vote share has been dwindling for years, for example not so long ago Labour used to get 70+% in the Welsh Valleys constituencies, now they are under 50% in most of them but they still easily win these seats due to lack of a credible opposition. The Tories are still absolutely despised, UKIP's potential is limited due to it's links to the Tory right and prior enthusiasm for things like privatisation, the Lib Dems love of 'do-gooder' internationalism is an anathema to these kind of places and Plaid Cymru (in Wales) potential is limited due to their fixation with things like the Welsh language. Also voter turnout in these areas is terrible and interest in politics is at rock bottom.

But as the lesson from the SNP in Scotland shows these areas have fallen out of love with Labour and will happily abandon them should a suitable alternative come along. If Labour does lose these areas as they have in Scotland they are essentially finished as a viable political force, you can't get even remotely close to winning an election with ideologically left wing voters in big cities alone.

However some constituencies with an industrial heritage have seen their demographics shift dramatically, it is particularly strong in areas where the Conservatives always had a strong base (e.g with rural farming areas or middle class professionals) for example South Derbyshire and North West Leicestershire. As the Labour vote collapsed in the ex-industrial part of these type of constituencies former marginals transformed into safe Conservative seats.

In many Labour coal mining seats new middle class housing private developments are springing up left, right and centre to accommodate the Conservative voting middle classes fleeing the big cities (the pattern in constituency boundary changes of many decades has been the cities and metros losing representation and the 'provinces' gaining). Some ex-industrial towns have also reinvented themselves and have become geared towards more skilled manufacturing or have transformed into commuter towns for large cities as the ex-mineworker/steelworker vote literally dies off, the latter change in particular (given voting patterns in Britain) will wipe out Labour's vote in an area in one foul swoop.

These changes potentially present a huge problem for Labour. While the very deprived ex-industrial constituencies should remain Labour at least in the short term but it would only take the right kind of populist movement to sweep them all away. In many others the demographics are shifting in a very unfavourable way as constituencies turn from an ex-industrial ones into 'Middle England' ones.

I hope that helped.

Thanks Vileplume!!!

So if I may attempt to consolidate your insights into a few bullet items:

1.) There has been a slow gradual erosion of Labour support by 15-20% in some heavily Coal and Steel constituencies within the UK over the past 15-20 years. (Similar pattern to what has been observed in Coal Country in Southern WV, SE KY, and a few counties in the Western part of VA).

2.) The Tories ("Center-Right") have not been major beneficiaries, nor have the UKIP, and although there have been some gains along the margins for the SNP and Welsh Nationalists in these areas outside of England, fundamentally voter turnout is significantly lower as individuals in these communities reject the electoral politics and choices in greater numbers than ever before.

3.) Within traditional Coal Mining/ Steel Industry areas  in the North of England, because of and/or a combination of traditional Labour constituencies leaving as result of economic decline, combined with an expanding "exurban" population outside of the cities, has gradually been turning marginal constituencies into strong Torie districts.

I hope that's a fair assessment of your comments, and it is certainly fascinating to see many of the comparisons, and some contrasts as well, with electoral shifts in the UK and US....

Now to wrap back to the original topic, I do believe that Bill Clinton not coming out forcefully in defense of the UMWA during the strike of '93 is where WV started to be lost for decades at the Presidential level....