The Green Thread: Marijuana in the states

[NOVA Green]

Since I don't believe anybody has posted updates relating to the difficulties getting Marijuana reform initiatives in front of voters in November because of signatures for ballot initiatives in the COVID-19 era...

https://blog.norml.org/2020/04/23/state-of-the-states-2020-ballot-initiative-efforts/

There was an article that I read a few weeks back which talked about this as well, but forgot which news organization posted it.

[NOVA Green]

I hear Montana will officially vote as well.

Yeah, full legalization is gonna be on the ballot in NJ, SD, MT, and AZ.

In addition, Medical Marijuana will be on the ballot in MS and SD (again...SD has BOTH medicinal and recreational on the ballot).

In addition, Oregon has a referendum to legalize medicinal psilocybin and a separate referendum to decriminalize (not legalize) all drugs.

MJ Legal Recreational should easily pass in NJ. MT, & AZ...

SD might well be another bag of Seedy Mexican Swag, where we get robbed short because just like first legalization initiatives in the '80s in the West, even "tokers" and "midnight smokers" might vote against to maintain illegal market share, combined with Gen Ex "Social Conservatives" who became "experienced" in the late '70s/ '80s and now that they got kids are worried about the "Gateway Drug"...

Regarding OR & Shrooms... this will likely pass by wide margins (Shrooms weren't illegal in OR until sometime in the late '80s)...

Wouldn't be shocked to see OR decriminalize all drugs, and quite frankly thought that LEA has been declining to prosecute many drug related charges for personal possession for some time....

[NOVA Green]

OR Drug related initiatives appear to be a clear rejection on the "War on Drugs".



Relatively closely tracking with the Biden > Trump wins in OR thus far

[NOVA Green]

Basically it’s only a matter of time with New Hampshire, Hawaii, Delaware, and Maryland. Are there any more purple states that have referendums? Or are we going to have wait 10 or 15 years for big urban southern states?

I think Kentucky and West Virginia could get it before the big southern states. Poor states where pot can grow easily would be a huge cash cow that might be tough to resist. Andy Beshear is up in 2023… he could run promising marijuana legalization. Jim Justice used to be a Democrat, And it’s still a billionaire. The marijuana industry is a multibillion dollar industry, which could be huge for the state with the second-lowest GDP per capita. Justice can’t run in 2024, but he could run in 2028, when he would be 77. Not unheard of, but I think more than likely Justice retires from public in 2024, and what a better way of extending his legacy and prosperity as more than just being a billionaire.

Seem to recall from reading High Times back in the late '80s and early-mid '90's about what a huge %  of Buds supplying the Midwest Market were outdoor grow ops in KY and WV.

Additionally, and perhaps slightly more anecdotally, Outdoor MJ growers in places in Southern and SE OH, would shift to growing plants in the Corn Fields, where with the high level of Machine-Based agricultural production vs labor-intensive, it would be really easy to slip under the radar, especially with the height of the Corn, where one could throw in a few small patches here and there and grab them prior to harvest season, without any fear of the "Skybirds" and "Helicopters", and generally air surveillance we used to face way back in the '80s in places like OR, WA, and CA for outdoor grow ops that sent some of my HS Friends parents to Prison way back in the dayz...

Passing it over to you in the form of a portrait of an artist as a young man....

[NOVA Green]

Most people in Oregon currently in the MJ Industry do not discuss their prior experiences as "OGs" back in the days.

When the Timber economy in Oregon collapsed in the late '70s / early mid '8os when the unemployment levels shot through the roof as part of the Reagan Recession, many of our parents, co-workers, and relatives shifted to cultivation of Marijuana in order to be able to support rural communities, a trend which accelerated dramatically by the Mid-Late '80s.

Techniques involved to combat the increased use of Air Surveillance and Recon, as well as other measures that the LEA used such as monitoring Water and Electrical bills in rural properties, raiding hydroponic shops to seize their customer lists.

Operation Ghost Dancer was a program which directly fell under the DoD budgets in order to directly support Marijuana related eradication programs in Oregon and elsewhere...

Most likely none of you have ever experienced regular military helicopters flying low consistently in your home towns to such an extent that for many of us it was more akin to Vietnam, even as younger kids growing up in that era...

Y'all really need to check out this document from the Lt Col. (now declassified) to realize how easy it was from one President of the US to basically mobilize Federal forces against a bunch of small MJ growers in the US.... (Sure I know that Washington might have had some precedent with the Whiskey Rebellion in Western PA, but that was so 1790s...

https://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/defenseissues/marijuana/ADA234053.pdf

[NOVA Green]

So "budsters" and "sinsters", maybe time to upgrade the map?

Bit goofy, but believe the last map I posted on this thread was way back in 2019.



This was on a post that same day where I explained the legend, while naturally "discussing with maps"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=258526.msg7066944#msg7066944

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/RyanFaircloth/status/1610738323991195651?s=20&t=iLlYA1d9...

Death to the weed parties!

Paging BRTD, since in his own admissions over the past couple years, he only likes "Fake Weed".

Regardless like so many States in recent years which have "legalized weed", the question is naturally more a question of "supply and demand", since after all many Oregonians are getting a bit tired, even in "Weed Country" where illegal Grow Ops without permits are buy-passing the Law, contaminating our waterways, simply in order to export their product to many other States, including those which have already legalized Weed.

Grow your own, legally smoke your own, change laws regarding exporting weed to other States, but still not a big fan of illegal grow ops in Oregon, just so BRTD can get High on Legal Herb. :;

[NOVA Green]

40-60 no with 2% in thus far...

18k-27k

[NOVA Green]

No leading 62-38 with 16% in now.

Where are you seeing the 16% in? I'm assuming this is precincts reporting, but not sure if they bundle absentees into one bucket.

Looking at the OK Elections website right now they have it at 5% Statewide Turnout with 114k in.

[NOVA Green]

A few of the county results thus far for larger counties...

YES leading in Oklahoma County (60-40) 13/290 precincts reporting. 10.5k TV
YES leading in Cleveland County (57-43) 20/105 precincts. 11.6k TV
YES leading in Tulsa County (59-41) 26/251 precincts. 13.5k TV

[NOVA Green]

The percentage isn't really budging.   It's been between 60% or 62% no the whole time...boring.

Numbers should improve for YES, assuming that margins in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Cleveland County stay constant.

Collectively amounted to around 45% of the state vote share in the 2020 PRES GE.

Also % precincts in from Tulsa and Oklahoma counties are basically slightly less than half of the total statewide numbers.

[NOVA Green]

The 2 News Oklahoma site called it for No with 55% of precincts in.

Yeah it's been clear for a little bit that this wouldn't pass.

I thought the YES margins would improve with many of the rural counties having come close to maxing, but it is looking like this will not be the case.

Even in the three YES counties, margins have been dropping since I last checked.

[NOVA Green]

Cleveland County just flipped to NO.

Looks like Norman (University of Oklahoma) precincts were disproportionally YES, with southern Oklahoma City precincts voting heavily NO.

Will be interesting to see precinct results by Turnout (TO) levels compared and contrasted.

[NOVA Green]

Still slightly difficult to read the Oklahoma County results with so many precincts outstanding...

It does appear that YES overperformed county vote % in the most heavily African-American census tracts, based upon precincts reporting thus far.

[NOVA Green]

Tulsa County has now flipped to NO with 73% of precincts reporting.

NO is killing it in Northern and Southern Oklahoma County.

YES votes are strongest in places closest to Oklahoma State University and some precincts North of "Downtown", if my brief survey of precinct results, census tracts, and neighborhood mapping is correct.

[NOVA Green]

Now the only suspense remaining is will Oklahoma County vote YES or flip to NO...

226/290 precincts reporting:

YES--- 41,236
NO---  40,219

We have some precincts on the Westside outstanding neighboring "Weedie" precincts, handful on the Northside which are a bit mixed, some big looking rural type precincts on the far Eastside likely without tons of population, and a few other miscellaneous precincts floating around.

Any bets if the "Anti Weed" crew will sweep all counties in OK?

[NOVA Green]

Still slightly difficult to read the Oklahoma County results with so many precincts outstanding...

It does appear that YES overperformed county vote % in the most heavily African-American census tracts, based upon precincts reporting thus far.

Does it seem like there are more “yes” or “no” areas left to count?

Apologies was busy looking at some numbers and working on my Oklahoma County post, so didn't see this until after had finished posting.



Wasn't prepared for this election, let alone matching it against some of the other precinct data sets I have, since after all elections involving things like "weed", "abortion", etc aren't typically something that is collected.

Even trying to match against '12, '16, and '20 PRES precinct results for a few of the largest counties isn't something to easily prepare for, even if I had been, let alone not necessarily actionable, especially within the context of what appears to be a very low TO SE.

Your guess is as good as mine.

[NOVA Green]

Oklahoma County update with discrepancies...

Looking like precinct map % are ahead of total county %?  (263/290 precincts reporting)

YES: 49.82%
NO: 50.18%

State Map is showing: (263/290)

YES:  47,511   (50.2%)
NO:   47,108   (49.8%)

Thinking there might be a precinct miscal on either side?

[NOVA Green]

Pretty hilarious in a state where, according to NYT, nearly 10% of the population has a medical marijuana prescription. Guess this is the down-side of the medical argument: the "I already got mine" issue. Might've been a lot closer - or a completely different outcome - if every pothead conservative in the state couldn't legally toke up already because of "tennis elbow" or whatever.

Good point... even the same article which I believe you are citing:

In the past few years, Oklahoma, long a solid bastion of conservatism, has quietly undergone a street-level transformation when it comes to marijuana. Dispensaries dot the landscape, with more than 400 in Oklahoma City alone.

The state legislature passed a two-year moratorium on new medical marijuana business licenses last year. The Oklahoma Farm Bureau, which opposes recreational marijuana legalization, has said the existing marijuana industry in the state is already straining rural infrastructure.

The proliferation of dispensaries — the state counts 2,890 active licenses — is evident on even the shortest drive through many municipalities. In the Oklahoma City neighborhood of Bricktown, which has many restaurants and hotels, dispensaries were already setting up before the election in anticipation of possible marijuana tourism from Texas or other neighboring states, should the ballot measure have passed.

Still, I have been chatting with my wife who grew up in Southern Oregon where illegal marijuana cultivation was a huge source of income when the timber economy was starting to collapse under the Reagan recession in the early '80s.

Even back then many "illegal" marijuana small family farmers were concerned about the potential of "legalization" to squeeze them out of the market at the hands of larger producers, where even "weed growing" places in Oregon back in '86 rejected the "personal use" legalization ballot measure #5  (26 % YES, 74% NO).

I have read multiple articles over recent years regarding Oklahoma medicinal marijuana production and how it has well exceeded levels which could reasonably be consumed within the state, meaning that OK is growing weed which is being exported elsewhere in massive numbers.

I grok the concept that voters in states which have legalized either or both medicinal and recreational marijuana are now facing significant issues with illegal grow operations, which contribute to a wide range of issues including:

1.) Environmental Contamination of waters & streams

2.) Human Trafficking for illegal grow operations

3.) Increase in crime in the form of robberies and shootings involving attempts to create a "heist" of product and cash which could easily be sold and transferred to the black market.

We have seen these problems arise in Oregon, and quite frankly don't blame the voters in Oklahoma for wanting to keep what they got and avoid the externalities.

Sure it was an extremely low turnout election, but yet the NO margins were a bit shocking, considering public opinion polls of OK voters regarding MJ legalization.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/oklahoma-marijuana-ballot.html

The collapse of the legalization vote in SE Oklahoma and populations with a large Native American population certainly tells a story.

Still, looks like there were multiple precincts in Muskogee, Oklahoma which voted YES, even in a low turnout election.

Shots out to Merle, love you man and can't forget seeing you live in concert where you basically said the whole song that was written for you was a joke, and you even appeared to take a toke on-stage while you were battling cancer.