Oregon 2016 GE Pres Results

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #21- Linn County--- Part II

Time to shift to several of the other larger cities within the County to examine their voting patterns over the past few election cycles, to not only explain the results from November, but also look at the shifting political patterns and electoral coalitions within Linn County....

1.) Lebanon---- Pop 15.6k---- 12.6% of '16 County Vote

88% Non-Latino White, 4% Latino, MHI $ 44.3k/yr (Bit lower than County average).

Occupationally & economically the predominate industries for residents are Health Care (18.6%), Manufacturing (14.8%), Retail (14.3%), Construction (9.5%).....

Men are most concentrated in the Manufacturing Sector (23%) & Construction (15%), 29% of women are employed in the Health Care sector.

Educationally, 24% of the population has a degree higher than a HS Degree, and 15% a four year degree or above....

Major employers: Lowes (Major distribution Center), Wal-Mart (Super Walmart built about 10 years ago), a local Medical Center, and Entek a "Hi-Tech" company that manufactures precision plastics for battery separators....

The unemployment rate went from 14% in '09 to 7% today.

Politically:

1992: (37D- 35R- 28 Perot)       +2 D
2008: (44D- 52R)                      +8 R
2012: (42D- 53 R)                     +11 R
2016: (31D- 54R)                     +23 R   (5% Write-Ins (Bernie?), 7% Libertarian, 3% Green).

So, what is important to note here, is the firstly, the Republicans were the major beneficiaries of the Perot '92 voters between '92 and '08....

Obama was relatively competitive, keeping the Republican voting share barely above 50%....

Clinton was overwhelmingly unpopular, but that vote did not really translate to a gain in Republican votes between '08 and '16....

Unfortunately I don't have the '00/'04 detailed precinct level results, but I suspect that George W. actually performed significantly better in Lebanon than McCain/Romney/Trump for a Republican candidate....

Anyone that has access to those data files, please shoot me a PM, since Linn County precinct numbers are some of the hardest to obtain in Oregon.

2.) Sweet Home--- Pop 9.0k--- 6.2% of County Vote (2016)

One of the "Whitest" parts of Oregon 96% White, 2% Latino.... MHI $ 34.1k/Yr

Occupationally & Economically the collars are overwhelmingly "Blue" and "Pink"....

17% of the population is employed in the manufacturing sector, 17% in Retail, 14% in Health Care, 12% in Education....

18% of workers are classified as administrative by occupation, 10% production, 8% Sales, 6% Food Service, 6% personal care, 6% repair, 6% material moving....

Fully 6% of residents of Sweet Home are employee in Law Enforcement and Fire Fighting....

Sweet Home was one of the hardest hit Timber Based communities in the 1980s, starting with the Reagan Recession of the early '80s, and a bit later on as a result of locally owned mill closures unable to afford the capital to retool later in the decade, with a mixture of foreign competition, automation, and environmental regulations that protected endangered species in Old Growth forests of the Cascade Mountain Range, creating a major local economic collapse....

It is a city local in a very beautiful part of Oregon and the US, close to majestic Mountain Forests and Cascade Foothill lakes, that very much feels like a town in decay, even from when I was young in the 1980s....

There used to be a time not too far back (1980s), when this was a reliably Democratic City, when the Democratic Party was perceived as a party that represented farmers, mill workers (Non-Union here), and mainstreet small businesses... In Sweet Home that is increasingly a fading dream of the past, and just as in other similar communities in the Ohio River Valley, Coal Country in Appalachia, the Corn and Dairy Countries of Wisconsin/Iowa, and elsewhere....

Politically:

1992: (37.2% D- 35.1% R- 27.7 % Perot)       + 2D
2008: (41D-55R)                                             +14 R
2012: (36D-60R)                                             +24 R
2016: (26D-63R)                                             +37 R    (4% Write-Ins, 5% Libertarian, 3% Green)

So here we see a clear pattern.... Perot '92 voters realigned towards McCain in '08, although Obama was able to at least capture 41% of the vote, roughly 1/20 voters that supported Obama in '08 voted for Romney in '12..... Now you see Clinton losing 10% of the Obama '12 Democratic %, and Trump gaining 3% off of Romney '16, and 8% off of McCain '08!!!!

The question for Democrats, is are these numbers reversible? Trump does not appear to have created the trend towards the Republican Presidential candidates, but certainly was best positioned to exploit it politically.

Neo-liberal Democrats are not particularly popular out here, and the downward spiral appears to directly coincide with Bill Clinton's administration, although it is possible that the local politics of Timber might have pushed that along a bit, during a time of extensive Mill Closures in Sweet Home and the surrounding regions.....

Next stop, some of the smaller towns and rural communities, based upon the best data that I have available....

Edit: Meanwhile I neglected to mention the impact of drug addiction & Mexican Cartels that Trump used as part of his campaign stump speech (Although more targeted on Heroin addiction in the Eastern US)..... Meanwhile out in Sweet Home (Like in many parts of small town and rural Oregon), we have a major Crystal Meth problem, and although I am sure Clinton had detailed plans to combat drug addiction, it didn't get any coverage from the MSM (That I can recall) during the GE....

These are LOCAL news stories that Oregonians are seeing regularly, particularly in the hardest hit communities.

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/06/new_drug_report_paints_a_less-.html

https://www.dea.gov/pubs/states/newsrel/seattle070706.html

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/crime/2016/08/05/stolen-guns-meth-seized-linn-county-drug-bust/88296342/

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/crime/2016/09/19/8-arrested-25-pounds-meth-seized-drug-busts/90714656/

http://www.kptv.com/story/28636631/linn-county-deputies-arrest-6-seize-drugs-worth-80k

http://katu.com/news/local/albany-pd-drug-bust-nets-8-arrests-25-pounds-of-meth-113k-cash

Now---- It's all great that we are making progress in taking down labs and distribution networks across the state, but where was Hillary Clinton on the campaign trail talking about substance abuse?

[NOVA Green]

If I may make a request, could you do Lake County next? Keep up the good work!

Finishing up Linn County, as we speak, I can definitely pop over to Lake County next, although because there are relatively few precincts, which makes it a bit more difficult to slice & dice numbers it's harder to drill down to a level of detail, but it is certainly interesting to see such a dramatic swing towards Trump in a part of the state, where many observers had considered the Republican vote virtually maxed out over the past decade or so, but apparently that was not the case at all....

This actually a pretty good analysis. Thanks for this (even if it is a bit tedious)

Thanks for the feedback GoTfan!

Agreed that the format makes it a bit tedious to wade through all of the layers of text....

My preference would be to supplement the text backed format with precinct maps, with visual reference notes on census data overlaps and a few charts and tables to break it up a bit, but unfortunately I don't have access to all precinct maps and software abilities to add more of a "visual element"

For those interested in checking out the works from an individual whose work that I profoundly admire, who combines both insightful analysis and detailed breakdown of Oregon politics, combined with a visual based format....

If you open the link and once you read this excellent extensive article, next step would be to click on his name and pull up many of this other blog postings that provide a similar high quality level of analysis on other Oregon related items....

For any Republican, Indie, and 3rd Party avatars out there, ignore the fact that these works are posted on Daily Kos, but rather review the actual content based nf the analysis itself.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/1/16/1620845/-Oregon-2016-election-results-by-legislative-district

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #21- Linn County--- Part III- Small Town & Rural Linn

So what about the 46% of the voters that don't live in the three largest cities?

This population obviously accounts for a significant population of the county voters, and any shift, even around the margins will have a significant impact on total county percentage results....

This task is slightly more difficult as it includes multiple "split-precincts" that include both smaller towns and some of the surrounding "rural areas".

Additionally, precinct boundaries have shifted around a bit that makes it a bit harder to do direct "apples-to-apples" comparison between '08 and '16, but we can still pull a relatively decent and reasonable comparison over the years....

The "Towns" include the following communities (Sodaville, Halsey, Harrisburg, Mill City, Waterloo, Idanha, Scio, Millersburg, Brownsville, Tangent, Gates, & Lyons).

1.) Small Towns----   13.5% of '16 County Vote

Note that although this includes a variety of communities, generally these are fairly established small population centers, that provide commerce to the surrounding areas, from local feed/agricultural supply stores, diners, and shopping, and in some of these towns there are jobs tied to manufacturing, such as the Pulp mill in Halsey, Grass Seed plants in Tangent, heavy Industry in Millersburg (Connected to Albany as a predominately "Heavy Industrial" zoned community), Harrisburg--- multiple mfg employers)

2008: (39D-58R)      +19R
2012: (34D-63R)      +29 R
2016: (26D- 65R)      +39R        (3% Write-Ins, 5% Libertarian, 2% Green)

Needless to say, these are completely awful results for a Democratic Presidential candidate, and additionally, as have observed in some other small town/rural parts of Western Oregon, the major swing against the Democratic Party occurred in '12, although Trump did manage to increase the Republican vote totals by 2%, which is not insignificant....

Although most of these towns have historically tended to lean slightly Republican, but there are variations, and some of these cities used to have a Democratic lean back in the '80s and early '90s.

I don't have the '88 precinct results available anymore, but it is unfeasible to see Dukakis not having won the majority of the vote in these towns....

If we roll back to '92, we see 5/50 top towns in Oregon for Perot on this list....

Of the top 50 Republican cities/towns in Oregon 3/5 pop up on this list...

Scio:   Not to far from the old Pulp Mill in Millersburg that recently was self-imploded....

1992: (36% Perot- 35% Bill Clinton- 29% Bush Sr)        +6D
2008: (47D- 49R)                                                         +2D
2012: (43D-54R)                                                           +11 R
2016: (23D-63R)                                                           +40R  (2% WI, 9% LBT, 2% Green)

Halsey: Site of a large pulp mill.... I remember way back in '88 Jesse Jackson showed up to a Union Rally during the strike of '88 during the Oregon Democratic primaries)

1992: (37D-34R- 29 Perot)                                            +3 D
2008: (32D-65R)                                                          +33 R
2012: (23D-73R)                                                          +50R
2016: (14D- 77R)                                                         +63R

Meanwhile the mill just got bought out in 2010, after a well respected local company (Pope & Talbot) went bankrupt in '08 in order to sell pulp to China...

http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2010/02/hong_kong_corporation_buys_ore.html

Hmmm....

Brownsville-

1992: (36D- 32R- 32 Perot)                    +4D
2008: (41D-57R)                                   +16R
2012: (38D-59R)                                    +21R
2016: (32D-57R)                                    +25R   (4% WI, 5% Lib, 2% Green)

Harrisburg-

1992: (32D- 40R- 28 Perot)                  +8R
2008: (40D-58R)                                  +18R
2012: (35D-62R)                                  +27R
2016: (27D-63R)                                  +36R     (4% Write-Ins, 5% Lib, 2% Green)

I could roll through more, but I think y'all are starting to get the point....


2.) Rural Linn County-----  33.1% '16 County Vote

So here we see some similar dramatic swings between '08 and '16, and in fact the swings between '08 and '12 are likely understated, because of how some of the rural precincts were split from towns between '08 and '16, and possibly a few annexations outside of Lebanon and Sweet Home....

2008: (37D-60R)                +23R
2012: (34D-62R)                +28R
2016: (25D- 64R)               +39R   (3.9 Write-Ins, 5.1 Lib, 1.9 Green)

Breaking down the rural vote is a bit complicated, considering that Linn County is one of the most difficult counties in Oregon to obtain precinct level data and maps from, but let's make a decent stab regardless...

A.) Lacomb- The largest rural precinct in the County (1243 voters in '16)--- 2.1% of County Total and 6.4% of rural votes....

2008: 1.1k Votes (37D-59R)           +22R
2012: 1.1k Votes (36D-59R)           +23R
2016: 1.2k Votes (25D-65R)           +40R    (4% Write-In, 5% Lib, 2% Green)

B.) Pct #86 Rural E. of Lebanon    (1,158 Voters in '16)--- 2.0% of County Total and 6.0% of rural votes

2008: (35D-62R)                +27R
2012: (31D-66R)                +35R
2016: (22D-66R)                +44R     (4% Write-In, 5% Lib, 1% Green)

Let's take a peak at the top Democratic '08 rural precincts....

C.) Precinct # 44 (Rural Corvallis)...  1.5% County Vote, 4.0% of Rural Vote

Although the name indicates that it is part of Corvallis, it is actually a rural precinct, much more so than North Albany is for example, but the proximity has made it more attractive for those that work in the City, and it is also part of the 509J School District...

1992: 780 Votes (42D-36R- 23 Perot)        +6D
2008: 830 Votes (49D-47R)                       +2D
2012: 800 Votes (49D-47R)                       +2D
2016: 860 Votes (45D-43R)                       +2D    (6% Write-Ins (Bernie?), 4% Lib, 3% Green)

So relatively consistent margins between '08 and '16, but a significant defection to the Left in '16...

D.) Precinct # 47 (Rural SE of Corvallis)---- (0.5% of County Vote)-  (1.4% of Rural Vote)

2008: (51-47D)   +4D
2012: (44-52R)    +8R
2016: (34-56R)    +22R    (5% Write-In, 4% Lib, 2% Green)

E.) Precinct # 19 (Riverside)--- 1.2% of County Vote, 3.8% of Rural Vote

Used to be infamous as one of the primary dope growing regions located on the Eastern banks of the Willamette River between Corvallis and Albany....

1992: (31D-37R- 33 Perot)    +6R
2008: (41D-55R)                  +14R
2012: (40D-54R)                   +14R
2016: (34D-53R)                  +19R    (3% Write-Ins, 8% Lib (!!!), 2% Green

Now, there are a lot more Republican voting rural precincts than Democratic precincts by far, so let's take a look at some of their top performing areas in '08...

So if we eliminate precincts w/o significant populations we see the following:

F.) Precinct # 75 (Union Point) ---- (1.5% County Votes)---  (4.5% Rural Votes)

2008: (30D-66R)            +36R
2012: (31D-66R)            +35R
2016: (23D-66R)            +43R    (4% Write-In, 4% Lib, 2% Green)

Not quite sure exactly what is going on here, but this community outside of Brownsville appears have been settled by an Abolitionist Preacher back in the 1840s, that tried to establish a religious colony, which might explain not only its strong ancestral Republican tendencies, but also the lack of any swing towards Trump, which is a bit unusual in rural Linn County.

G.) Other precincts---

We could start rolling through various rural precincts that are more typical such as # 53 (West Scio) that was (32-64R) in '08, (29-66R) in '12. and (21-70R) in '16 or #54 Shedd (35-61R) in '08, (33-64R) in '12, and (23-65R) in '16....

Green Peter in the far Eastern corner of the County (Logging Country): (40-56R) in '08, (37-57R) in '12, and (26-64R) in '16.....

So to summarize, it doesn't appear that Trump was able to significantly expand the Republican base in Small Town and Rural Linn County between '08 and '16, other than adding a few points to the margins, but more a case of a major drop in the Democratic share of the vote between '08 and '12 in these communities, combined with a massive defection of Obama '12 voters towards 3rd Party Candidates in these same areas in 2016.....

The key question for both Democrats and Republicans, is will these same voters drift back towards the Democratic Party in 2020, or is this a precursor towards the rejection of the Democratic brand itself, rather than one particular candidate?

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #22: Lake County---- Pop 7.9k

(87% Anglo, 8% Latino)--- (MHI $33.6k/yr)--- the lowest income by household in Oregon--- one of the older counties in Oregon (56% of the Population 45+)--- one of the lowest proportions of the population with an HS degree or above in the state.

This county is a bit harder than most, as it is one of only five counties in Oregon that I have never had the pleasure to experience...

Located within the high desert region of SE Oregon, known as the "Oregon Outback" on the NW edge of the Great Basin, the history of the county has been heavily defined by the the timber industry, where there used to be an extensive supply of logs from the Fremont National Forest in the Northern part of the County, as well as agricultural and livestock industries....

Lodgepole Pine in particular was one of the earliest foundations of the county economy, and for many decades was a significant region for production of hardwood timber, especially when the first railroads rolled into the region in the 1890s....

http://www.foresthistory.org/ASPNET/Publications/region/6/fremont/intro.htm

Although timber is only a relatively minor component of the current economy, it is still relative as part of the social history and collective identity in a part of the state where most of the population has ancestry and family history in that industry, in an county that is increasingly aging with a slow amount of external population growth.

Ranching & Livestock is also a major anchor of the Counties economy....

With the increased ranching settlement of the region, a series of "range wars" erupted between Cattle and Sheep ranchers, that frequently pitted Irish against the Basque immigrants, that had recently started to migrate to this part of Oregon.

https://oregonhistoryproject.org/articles/historical-records/central-oregon-range-wars/#.WJKm4BsrK00

Additionally, you have a major history of mining within the County, including massive Uranium Mine cleanup activities, as well as potential mining opportunities underground for various natural resources...

http://www.oregongeology.org/sub/milo/ohmi-lake.htm

http://www.sandia.gov/caps/lakeview.htm

http://www.oregongeology.org/sub/milo/archive/MiningDistricts/LakeCounty/LakeviewDistrict/LuckyLassMine/LuckyLassMineReports.pdf


All the history and that aside, time to take a look at the voting patterns in Lake County over the past 10+ years at precinct levels, and throw in a few historical county level results going back to '88...

Lake County Election Results (1988-2016)

1988: (36D-62R)                                     +26R
1992: (27D-47R- 26 Perot)                      +20R
2000: (19D-76R)                                     +57R       (3% Nader)
2004: (21D-78R)                                     +57R
2008: (26D-72R)                                     +46R
2012: (21D-76R)                                     +55R
2016: (16D-77R)                                     +61R

There is absolutely no way shape or form that you can discern any silver linings whatsoever for Democratic Presidential candidates since '92 (And even that is an iffy proposition).

Regardless, it actually looks like Trump's numbers have been relatively consistent for a Republican Presidential nominee since 2000, with the exception of the '08 "Obama Bump".

Time to break down Lake County election results in greater detail:

1.) Lakeview---- (Pop 2.3k)---- (35.4% of the County Vote)

93% White/Anglo, 2% Latino--- MHI $37.9k/Yr

Lakeview is basically a regional center that provides commercial, medical, and governmental services to much of the county, in one of the more remote parts of the state....

So it is not surprising to see a much larger than average concentration in occupations such as administrative, sales, health care support, as well as governmental occupations such as law enforcement & firefighting (6+ % of workers in the city!).

Politically, like the overwhelming majority of the county it is heavily Republican, although occasionally Democrats can perform surprisingly well in Lakeview itself, if they are attentive to the local county concerns and needs.

1992: (29 D- 44R- 27 Perot)                      +15 R (8th most Republican City in Oregon '92)
2008: (28D-70R)                                       +42 R
2012: (21D-76R)                                       +55 R
2016: (18D-75R)                                       +57 R   (4% Libertarian)

So interestingly enough, although Obama was only able to match Bill Clinton's '92 numbers in a three person contest, most of the drop-off in Democratic support actually happened between '08 and '12, and not so much between '12 and '16, which is a similar pattern that we have seen in many other rural communities in Oregon (Although most of my focus thus far has been in Oregon Counties West of the Cascade Mountain Range, and not so much in Eastern Oregon (Excepting Central Oregon a few counties along the Columbia River).

Now what does a potential Democratic ceiling look like in Lakeview?

These might slightly understate the level of Democratic support in Lakeview, since I don't have access to precinct maps might have included a relatively small, but overwhelmingly Republican precinct (#14) into the Lakeview numbers based upon 2008 definitions....

So let's look at how Lakeview votes recently for US Senate elections, with Liberal Democrats on the ballot....

1.) 2016 US Senate (40D-54R )         +14R    
2.) 2014 US Senate (32D-55R)          +23R
3.) 2010 US Senate (40D-55R)           +15R
4.) 2008 US Senate (19D-71R)           +62R  

So, it appears clear that Liberal Democrats can actually perform quite well, even in a Republican stronghold in Eastern Oregon when running for the US Senate as incumbents.... '08 was a bit of an odd year since Merkely was running as a Democratic challenger against an incumbent Republican Senator from Eastern Oregon, so there was a huge gap between communities in the Eastern and Western parts of the state for that particular election.

Ok--- time to take a peak at the "rural" parts of Lake County, which accounts for some 65%+ of the total County vote.... This is a bit challenging, without precinct maps, but I'll make a stab at it to the best of my abilities based upon the precinct names and locations within the County.

2.) "Democratic" friendly precincts.... Not a lot to choose from here (Outside of a few precincts in Lakeview), which I will define as precincts where Obama '08 captured >40% of the vote.

Summer Lake is basically a small resort with natural hot springs, and a natural lake with a ton of migratory birds....  I have no idea exactly what the deal is with New Pine Creek, but there is an interesting story regarding how the small community is in a limbo zone, because of some surveyors error over (100) years ago....

So if Trump wants to investigate illegal voting, maybe he should take a look out here to see if people are voting both in Lassen County California (Trump's strongest County in Cali) and also in Lake County Oregon....

This article is worth checking out for the humor value alone, and has nothing to do with elections...

http://articles.latimes.com/2005/jun/26/local/me-bordertown26

This accounts for a minute 4.5% of the County Vote and 6.5% of the rural vote:

Summer Lake: Precinct #2

2008: (40D- 51R)   +11R
2012: (32D- 57R)    +25R
2016: (24D-67R)     +43R    (6% Libertarian)

New Pine Creek: Precinct #15

2008: (46D-52R)    +6R
2012: (37D-61R)    +24R
2016: (16D-76R)     +60R      (6% Write-Ins)

So if we look at the US Senate races in '10/'14/'16 we see:

2010: (Summer Lake--- (41D-52R))---- (New Pine Creek (42D-50R) )
2014: (Summer Lake--- (49D-43R))---  (New Pine Creek (47D-44R))
2016: (Summer Lake--- (33D-56R))---  (New Pine Creek (33D- 55R))

Let's take a look at the most Republican precincts in rural Lake---

3.) Warner Valley--- (Precincts # 5 & 6)--- 3% of County Vote, 4.6% of rural Vote)

Once again, a beautiful part of Oregon (Please Google it if you don't believe me) and hopefully I'll be able to make it out there sometime in the next few years, as part of a SouthEast Oregon roadtrip vacation.... This is overwhelmingly ranching country, where local farmers benefit from utilization and subsidies in publicly owned land (BLM land).

2008: (12D-88R)       +76R
2012: (11D-87R)       +76R
2016: (8D- 91R)        +83R

How did Cattle country vote for US Senate races?

2010: (28D- 64R)       +36R
2014: (21D-74R)        +53R
2016: (29D-75R)        +46R

4.) Now that we have taken a peak at the most Democratic and Republican parts of Lake County, time to look at a few places where rural voters reside....

A.) Christmas Valley- (17.9% of County Voters, 27.7% of rural voters)...

This is predominately an agricultural precinct (Hay Farming and some smaller scale cattle ranching) with a local commercial center, that used to have a US Air force facility until '02.... The small town was initially the pipe-dream of an ambitious real estate personality, that tried to shop the development to the area in the late '50s and early '60s....

http://www.christmasvalley.net/page9/page9.html

https://christmasvalleyproperty.com/about/christmas-valley-full-history

Politically Presidential Returns:

2008: (28D-68R)     +40R
2012: (27D-68R)     +41R
2016: (18D-76R)      +56R    

Senate:

2010: (35D-55R)    +20R
2014: (30D-54R)    +24R
2016: (31D-57R)     +26R

So maybe a bit of a Trump effect here, but it does look like Liberal Democratic Senators significantly outperform Democratic Presidential Candidates in general...

So overall, this should provide a pretty decent level of detail on Lake County, although there are a few odd anomalies that I discovered....

Why did Liberal Dem Senator Ron Wyden capture 42% vs 50% the Republican candidate in '16 in the Cogswell Creek Precinct, that went (16D-76R) for President in '16, despite a history of traditionally voting 3:1 Republican in just about every other election in recent years???

If anyone can provide me with an answer to that question, I would be most fascinated....

[NOVA Green]

Ok---- for a recap here are the counties in Oregon that I have covered to date, although a few of the earlier ones will need a revamp (Marion County in particular)



I'll be rolling in with Clackamas County next to complete the Western part of the State, and then likely move rapidly through the rest of the Eastside, since most of these counties have a small number of precincts (Umatilla and Klamath as the outliers).

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Pop 381k

Clackamas County is the 3rd largest county in Oregon in terms of population, and is a classic "swing" or indicator county for Oregon, since it includes a mixture of working-class communities in places like Milwaukie and Oregon City, as well as some of the wealthiest Cities in Oregon and Metro Portland (Lake Oswego/ West Linn), as well as a significant number of unincorporated urban/suburban/exurban communities, and throw in a large dash of heavily rural precincts and communities in the Southern/Eastern parts of the County....

This is basically a county that if a Republican candidate doesn't win for a Statewide election (Federal or Local), they have exactly a 0% chance of winning period....

Every election where Republicans have come close to winning, thinking a Gubernatorial and Senatorial race, they have been able to win by a decent margin in Clackamas, while also keeping the race close in Washington County, combined with racking up huge margins downstate, and minimizing Democratic margins in Multnomah, Lane, and Benton....

(84% Anglo/White, 8% Latino, 4% Asian)---- (MHI $64.4k/Yr) that makes it by far the highest household income county in Oregon....

Occupations gravitate most heavily towards White Collar occupations (Administrative/Sales/Management).... Relatively, Legal/Mgmt/Construction/Sales/Repair/Business stand out even stronger...

Politically, Clackamas County has long voted to the Right of Oregon in general, although it is increasingly shifting a bit more Democratic over the years...

1988: (48D-52R)                    +4 R
1992: (39D-34R- 25 Perot)     +5 D
2000: (47D-48R)                    +1 R
2004: (49D-50R)                    +1 R
2008: (54D-44R)                    +10D
2012: (50D-46R)                    +4D
2016: (48D-41R)                    +7D      (4% Write-Ins, 5% Libertarian, 2% Green)

So, at least here it appears that overall Clinton was able to maintain the Obama '12 coalition, and that the support for the Republican Party with Trump as the figurehead, has managed to bring the level of support for the Republican Party ever, with the exception of '92 when you had Perot grabbing a full 25% of County Voters....

I'll start rolling through some of the cities in Metro PDX on my next update....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Part II

So, as I alluded to previously, one of the key challenges with Clackamas County, is how to methodically break down the County into logical components, since unlike Washington County,  the other major suburban County in the Tri-County Area (The three counties that define metro Portland---- Multnomah, Washington, & Clackamas--- ) there aren't really any major single cities that help define the "identity" of the County, combined with a significant number of unincorporated and rural areas....

My thought to break down WashCo is something along the following lines:

1.) Traditionally Working-Class established  "inner" communities (Milwaukie, Oregon City, Gladstone)--- 17.1% of County Votes.

2.) Traditionally Upper-Income suburbs (West Linn & Lake Oswego) ---- 18.6 % of County Votes

3.) Relatively newer suburbs located close to I-5 that used to be considered more Exurban, where a rapid growth in box stores, retail jobs, and affordable apartments has changed the composition of the communities (Wilsonville, Tualatin, Rivergrove)---- 6.9% of County Votes

4.) Exurban & Small Cities that identify as predominately rural in character.... (Estacada, Sandy, Molalla, Canby, and Happy Valley)---- 13.4% of County Votes.... this is a bit problematic, since in many ways I think Happy Valley doesn't fit the mold of the rest of these cities, and plus several fall more into a rural category than anything remotely approaching exurban.... Will likely rethink this one, but regardless, need to start somewhere....

5.) Unincorporated areas--- these are areas that clearly fall within the Tri-County Urban Growth Boundary, that do not appear to exhibit a significant rural characteristic. This is also tricky---- 25.4% of County Votes.

6.) Rural----  Areas that appear to be outside the urban growth boundary, and with some exceptions appear to exhibit more of a rural character, although again this is tricky in some cases----- 22.6% of County Votes.

So... let's start with the most  "Inner" working-class suburbs first and then go from there....

1.) Milwaukie- (Pop 20.4k)--- (85% White, 5% Latino, 3% Black, 4% Asian)- (MHI- $51.6k/Yr)--- 5.6% of County Vote

Milwaukie is in many ways more similar to the working-class precincts/neighborhoods of inner SE Portland than anywhere in Clackamas County, but with a lower "Blue Collar" component and fewer "hipsters", and more of a classic bedroom community, with a lovely downtown...

Occupationally, is heavily dominate by "Pink Collar" working-class occupations (Administrative 19%, 13% Sales, 8% food services, 8% mgmt, 7% production).....

If I would have bet on the most Democratic City in Clackamas in '16 Milwaukie would have likely been at the top of my list:

1992: (46D-29R- 25 Perot)                    +17D
2008: (65D-34R)                                   +31D
2012: (65D-32R)                                   +33D
2016: (60D-28R)                                   +32D    (4% Write-In, 5% Lib, 3% Green)

This is a place, where in theory Trump might have been able to make some small inroads, but instead he performed worse than George Bush Sr did in '92 in a competitive three person race....

2.) Gladstone--- (Pop 11.6k)--- (84% White, 8% Latino,  2% Black, 3% Asian)--- (MHI- $54.4k/Yr)

Occupationally, 25% of the labor force is in Administrative jobs, 10% Sales, 8% food service, 7% transportation, 6% mgmt)... Transportation, Administrative, Health Tech, Food Service, Construction, and Repair are disproportionately represented, likely as the result of being an affordable part of town right off the 205 and within close proximity to the I-5....

One could argue that this is not a "traditional suburb", however basically the population growth rate has been virtually flat since 2000, which is a bit unusual for most of Metro Portland....

Regardless, it is a key part of the working-class Democratic coalition in the Portland suburbs of Clackamas County for over thirty years...

1992: (42D-32R- 27 Perot)       +9D
2008: (56D-41R)                      +15D
2012: (54D-43R)                      +11D
2016: (49D-39R)                      +10D    (4% Write-Ins, 6% Lib, 2% Green)

Hmmm...

3.) Oregon City--- (Pop 33.1k)--- (86% White, 8% Latino, 1% Black, 2% Asian)--- (MHI--- $60.2k/Yr)

Occupationally, again heavily dominated by Blue Collar and Pink Collar occupations--- (17% Administrative, 12% Sales, 10% Management, 7% Construction, 5% Production). If we look at relative occupations represented disproportionatly within the labor force we see Law Enforcement, Construction, Repair, Fire Fighting, Health Techs, and administrative in that order....

I specifically called out Oregon City during the Democratic Primaries as a place that Clinton was likely to fail, because her message was not resonating in a heavily well compensated but Blue Collar City in Oregon, which used to vote overwhelmingly Democratic....

Meanwhile, we see the classic pulp mill in Oregon shuttering it's doors as a result of unfair trade competition from China in the Pulp and Paper industry...

When the Blue Heron Mill shut down in Oregon City in 2011, it was more than just an economic blow to the community, it was a massive hit to the very social identity of the entire City itself, regardless of some new employers in the Tech sector that set up shop in recent years...

http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/01/china_is_killing_oregons_paper.html

http://www.oregonlive.com/oregon-city/index.ssf/2011/02/historic_oregon_city_paper_mill_to_close_losing_175_jobs.html

http://www.pamplinmedia.com/cr/26-features/332280-210404-oregon-city-author-robert-bresky-tells-story-of-local-paper-mills-in-new-book

Be that what it may---- Oregon City has moved from a solidly Democratic stronghold, to a marginally Democratic City in '16....

1992: (43D- 28R- 29 Perot)          +15 D    (37th most Democratic City in Oregon)
2008: (54D-43R)                          +11 D
2012: (51D- 46R)                         +5D
2016: (45D- 42R)                         +3D     (5% Write-Ins, 6% Lib, 2% Green)

Lest anyone on the Atlas Forum misconstrue, Oregon City is not filled with a bunch of racist Trump loving bigots, but rather just another working-class community that has been left out under the "New Economy" that both Democrats and Republicans alike have been pushing for decades....

Increasingly as housing and rental prices have shot through the roof in Central areas of Portland, working families are moving further out, in order to pay their rent and deal with longer commutes to support their families (To far Eastside Portland, parts of Clackamas County, and even into Washington County), like my friends Earl and Dianna, that chose to relocate to Oregon City for housing, and although Earl is "Black" and Dianna is "White", they never thought twice nor have ever said anything negative about living and raising their children in Oregon City...

Back onto topic--- if we look at the traditional "Democratic Inner Communities" of Clackamas, we see Milwaukie, Gladstone, and Oregon City basically holding their own, although it appears that likely 3rd Party Voters would have broken harder towards the "Anti-Trump" Democrat had the candidate not been Hillary Clinton.

Still, the traditionally Democratic Cities of Clackamas County do not explain why Clinton was actually able to improve on Obama '12 margins within the County....

Next stop, traditionally Upper-Income "Inner Suburbs" of ClackCo....

[NOVA Green]

How do you make county maps?

I do it the low-tech way for county level maps by state....

1.) Download Paint.Net
2.) "Google" or whatever search engine you use for example" Idaho Blank County Map"....
3.) Test some different maps to see what works best in terms of resolution and avoiding county bleed-over when you are painting
4.) Crop/Edit whatever you are trying to do to make it as visually appealing as possible, trying to use somewhat standard Atlas Political Party colors and shading
5.) Go to Atlas and click on "Gallery" and upload your map "Add Picture" ---
6.) Once you have uploaded it to your gallery, click on my images...
7.) Select the image you want to Insert
8.) Scroll down to the very bottom to the "Image Linking Codes" and do a "Control C" after highlighting the entire text within that box....
9.) Go back to whatever thread you are posting on, and do a "Control P" to insert the link to your image file into the appropriate section of your post....

Honestly, this is the Po' Boy version of creating a County Map by State on Atlas, and there are a ton of individuals on this Forum much better versed on this matter than  myself, but this thread helped

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=193009.0


There are more complicated ways, involving GiS software, but so far I haven't seen where this process has been sufficiently explained for us lay-people.   

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=134891.0

If we really want to get into it, there is software out there that can help convert even precinct level data into awesome and amazing maps (Assuming that such data is publicly available for a given county/Metro Region/ etc)....  This is a secret process of the Atlas alchemists and wizards that do not share with the uninitiated, since it evidently involves a Multiyear apprenticeship program, as well as a significant amount of blood, sweat, time, and tears....

Cue someone jumping in a providing a link or update in any of the mapping threads so that I can possibly pull some nice precinct level maps of Oregon to embed into the thread?   Pretty please...

[NOVA Green]

Cue someone jumping in a providing a link or update in any of the mapping threads so that I can possibly pull some nice precinct level maps of Oregon to embed into the thread?   Pretty please...

Are you wanting a particular Oregon map?

Sent you a PM.... basically any map in a freeware file format that can be painted....

My focus in on the traditional "swing" or elastic Oregon Counties at competitive statewide elections (Washington, Clackamas, Marion, Jackson, and Deschutes)....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Part III- (Wealthy Inner Clack- 18.6% of County)

So basically we are talking about two cities---- Lake Oswego and West Linn Oregon....

Both cities were some of the fastest growing cities in Oregon between 1990 and 2004, with the population growth rate having leveled off, in what are essentially cities with a small land area, and no room for expansion, and many residents that don't favor a "high density" model...

Two of the wealthiest communities in not only Metro-Portland, but the entire state of Oregon as well in terms of Median Household Income and Per Capita Income....

These are both cities that used to be key indicators of Republican performance in the State, since they exemplified the model of fiscally conservative and socially liberal model that allowed Republicans to own both Senate seats and a majority of the House Congressional delegation, even with Dukakis winning the state by 6% in '88 when Bush Sr was winning nationally by 8%.

Even to this day, the major reason why Republicans haven't been able to win a competitive Gubernatorial Election is because of places like Lake Oswego and West Linn, despite solid performance downstate....

So, please do me the favor and google statistical Atlas, click on the "Household Income by Place" and you will see the top five areas pop up (Bethany and Cedar Mill--- Uninc WashCo and covered under a previous post, Happy Valley--- to be covered in another post, and West Linn and Lake Oswego #4 and #5 wealthiest communities in Oregon)

Time to shift to Election Results:

1.) Lake Oswego--- Pop 37.0k--- MHI $83.6k/Yr---- 87% White, 4% Latino, 7% Asian)

Occupationally: 18% Management, 15% Sales, 10% Administrative, 9% Business

Relative Occupations compared to statewide average: Legal, Health Care, Business, Management, Engineering, and Entertainment

Age: Significantly older than the statewide average, with a significantly lower population 18-39, and a significantly higher population 44-66.

Education: 71.4% Higher than an HS Degree, 66% with a Bachelor Degree or Higher

Politically:

If anyone would have told me 25-30 years ago that Lake Oswego would be the most Democratic City in Clackamas County in 2016, I would have scoffed at them, and called them a fool for making such a crazy prediction...

1992: (41D- 39R- 20 Perot)       +2 D
2008: (63D- 36R)                      +27D
2012: (57D-41R)                       +16D
2016: (63D-27R)                       +36D     (4% Write-In, 4% Libertarian, 1% Green)

+20 D swing '12 to '16....

Obviously a ton of Romney '12/ Clinton '16 voters here...

Let's take a peak at a few of the wealthiest precincts in Lake Oswego:

Precincts # 156 & 157 (South Lake Oswego)-- 24% of City Votes--- MHI $110-$140k/Yr ---- Overwhelmingly White and Non Latino/Asian precincts...
(25% of City Votes) in just these two precincts....

2012: 5,167 Votes (54D-44R)   +10 D
2016: 5,311 Votes (62D-29R)   +33 D


+23 D swing from '12 to '16....

Precinct #153 is the most heavily Asian-American Precinct in Lake Oswego (15.3% Asian).... It's a bit more "Middle-Class" by Lake Oswego Standards---  (MHI $89.7k/Yr)


2012: (58D-40R)     +18D
2016: (64D-25R)     +39D        (4% Write-Ins, 5% Libs, 1 % Green)             

+21 D swing from '12 to '16...

Precinct #158- SW Lake Oswego--- 13% Latino--- MHI $63.6k/Yr

So... here we have the lowest income precinct in the City and the most Latino precinct in the City, so let's see if there was a Latino "surge"....

Note this is not sarcasm, but in all my precinct level data analysis in Oregon, I have yet to see any real evidence of this, although as I mentioned before I will need to examine Marion County in more detail, and in particular the first Latino majority State House district....

2012: 1,697 Votes (54D-43R)    +11 D
2016: 1,864 Votes (60D-29R)     +31 D     (4% Write-In, 6% Libertarian, 1% Green)

+20D Swing from '12 to '16

So what has happened is that one of the most Middle-Class precincts in the County, which in recent years tilted a bit more Republican than the City average, has now become one of the least Democratic precincts in the County, and some of the most Republican Precincts are now getting extremely close to some of the traditionally marginally Democratic Precincts on the North Side of the Lake....

2.) West Linn--- Pop 25.5k--- MHI $84.5k/Yr--- 87% White, 4% Latino, 5% Asian

Occupationally: 20% Management, 17% Sales, 13% Admin, 7% Business, 6% Education
Relative Occupations: Mgmt, Business, Sales, Legal, Health Care, Health Tech

Education: 62.4% Bachelors Degree or Higher

1992: (40D-36%- 25 Perot)    +4D
2008: (59D-39R)                    +20D
2012: (55D-44R)                    +11D
2016: (60D-29R)                    +31D    (4% Write-In, 6% Libertarian, 1% Green)

+20D Swing from '12 to '16.....

I could tell a story about someone that I vaguely knew in college who came from West Linn back in '93, but I came from the other side of the tracks, and downstate Oregon to boot, and plus our personalities, interests, and backgrounds were so diametrically opposed that we never became close to friends, even in a small College way out in Ohio with only a few Oregonians represented.

Reap them and weep both Clinton and Trump supporters alike...

These two cities are where the Clinton strategy of appealing to Upper-Income Anglos/Whites clearly played well "Big League" or is it "Biggly" ()....

As I have demonstrated elsewhere in this thread, the gains among these voting blocks did allow Clinton to obtain Obama '12 margins in Oregon, but at the cost of massive defection of Blue Collar and Working-Class voters in many other parts of the state.

Obviously the key question for Republicans, is will they be able to regain many of these Romney '12 voters that defected to Clinton and 3rd Party Candidates in the General Election, and the key question for Democrats is will they be able to move these voters into the Democratic column in the long term to keep locking down the two Senate seats and Statewide races in Oregon?





 

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Part IV: Exurban Cities

The very definition of Exurbs is a bit problematic, and is increasingly subject to debate, although for the purposes of this thread, I will rely on the relative lack of proximity to the defined "core" urban and suburban cities, with a relatively higher rate of education and income, where much of the population commutes to jobs outside of the "exurban city" as part of a trade off for potentially "more house for less dollars", intangibles such as more of a "small town feel", etc....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commuter_town

So, I will include the cities of Wilsonville, Canby, Happy Valley, and Sandy within this definition--- although there are some significant differences between these four cities, and in some ways Sandy is slightly arguable in this category....

Again, Unincorporated parts of Metro-Clackamas will be covered seperately, which will likely give me a major migraine trying to deconstruct, but oh well....

These are four of the fastest growing cities in Oregon with over 5,000 residents (2010-2014).....

#1: Happy Valley---  (12.6k > 15.7k)  +24.7%
#3: Sandy---           (8.9k  > 9.9k)      +12.2%
#4: Canby---           (15.4k > 16.9k)    +9.3%
#10 Wilsonville---    (18.9k > 20.3k)    +9.3%

* These population numbers are likely understatements following 2015 Census Data that I have seen...

Let's start with the largest Exurban City----

1.) Wilsonville---- (77% White, 14% Latino, 4% Asian)-   (MHI- $56.4k/Yr)

Located a bit South of Portland and straddling I-5 on both sides in a relatively undigified manner, but also close to the suburbs of SW Washington County, but still relatively close to the I-205 for commuters migrating into Clackamas Proper, is actually in many ways more of a traditional older Exurb.... Most of the population growth in recent years has occurred in the Western side of the City around the Villebois area, where there was an urban renewal project to build upon the grounds of a former State Hospital....

It's changed a heck of a lot since the days when I was a kid, in the early/Mid '80s and my Dad would do the reverse commute down the "Five" (Interstate-5) from a modest starter home in the hills of West Portland, to work at the former Tektronix plant, and virtually the only people that lived in Wilsonville were the wealthy boat homes and condos along the South Bank of the Willamette River....

http://www.oregonlive.com/front-porch/index.ssf/2015/09/wilsonville_crushing_single-fa.html

Educationally: 45.7% a degree Higher than an HS Degree, and 40.7% Bachelor Degree or Higher.

Occupationally: Mgmt (14.4%), Admin (13.7%), Sales (12.1%) Business (6.1%)
Relative Occupations by order:  Law Enforcement, Engineering, Health Care, Health Techs, Legal, Mgmt, Repair & Maint, & Business are represented in disproportionate numbers.

Politically: This used to be one of the most Republican cities in Oregon.... I no longer have me '88 Oregon Pres Precinct level results, but I seem to recall Wilsonville giving 70% of the vote to Bush Sr.

1992: (34.3% Clinton, 42.6% Bush, 23.1% Perot)       +9 R    (#15 most Republican City in '92)
2008: 8,006 Voters ( 52D-46R)                                    +8D
2012: 8,438 Voters ( 48.3D- 48.4R)                             +1R
2016: 11,049 Voters (49.6D-37.9R)                             +12D

Wilsonville actually voted to the Left of Oregon as a whole in '16, after voting to the Right of Oregon in both '08 and '16....

So where did these votes change?

Not a ton of precincts to look at, since there are only four precincts in the City....

Let's take a peak at Pct # 203: Charbonneau District--- (19% of the City Vote)- (98% White)- Older retirees (34% of the population is 70+ !!!!)---- (MHI--- $62.5k/Yr)--- This is to be expected in an upper-income retirement community, the MHI is dragged down a bit...

2008: 2,043 Votes (47D-52R)          +5R
2012: 1,968 Votes (43D-56R)          +13R
2016: 2,112 Votes (48D-45R)           +3 D

+16% Swing....

Bop over to West Wilsonville----the most Latino precincts in town 13-21%.... On paper appears to be relatively Middle/ Upper- Middle-Class, but the census tracts don't align with city limits.

Still, Precinct #201 gives us something to work with....

2012: 2,671 Voters (50D-48R)    +2D
2016: 2,743 Voters (53D-35R)    +18 D     (5% Write-Ins, 5% Libertarian, 2% Green)

+16D Swing.....

So interestingly enough the Democratic swing was equal in both the Oldest/White/Wealthy/Retiree precinct as it was in the most Latino and relatively working/ Middle-Class precinct West of I-5.... in the case of the overwhelmingly Anglo Precinct there was a huge gain for Clinton vs Obama '08/'12, and on the Westside there was a gain for Clinton, but greater drop-off of the Republican Vote and increased support for 3rd Party Candidates....

2. Happy Valley--- (69% White, 6% Latino, 18% Asian)---- MHI $ 92.8k/Yr

Korean and Vietnamese-Americans account for 43% of the Asian-American Population, with Chinese-Americans accounting for an additional 14.7%, and "Other" 17% of the community by ancestry,

Education: 58% HS Degree or Higher, 47% Bachelors Degree or Higher

Occupationally: Sales (18%), Management (14.4%), Admin (12.2%), Health Care (6.5%), Business (6.4%), Education 6.3%

Relative Occupations: Health Care, Sales, Law Enforcement, Management, Business, Computers & Math

Age: Population heavily concentrated in the 39-54 yr range, with a significantly lower population of Seniors and those in their '20s, but above statewide average in terms of kids (<18 yrs old)

Politically: Blip on the radar back when I was a teenager in the late '80s.... basically the equivalent of one larger rural precinct....

1992: 1,069 Voters (32D-46R- 23 Perot)      +14R
2008: 5,895 Voters (50D-49R)                     +1D
2012: 6,813 Voters (46D-53R)                     +7R
2016: 9,583 Voters (49D-41R)                     +8D

So +15 D Swing between '12 and '16 and overall looking closer to the Statewide Democratic margins than anytime in the modern history of Oregon Presidential Elections....

Precinct #103 has one of the highest concentration of Asian-Americans in the City

2012: 2,469 Voters (44D-54R)     +10R
2016: 2,966 Voters (47D-44R)     +3 D

Still difficult to break down the Asian-American vote in Happy Valley, considering that the population is relatively equally distributed across the city...

3.) Canby----(72% White, 24% Latino)--- (MHI- $57.9k/yr)

Education: 34% Higher than an HS degree, 27% Higher than a Bachelors Degree

Occupations: Administrative (14%), Sales (11%), Management (9%), Production (7%) Food Services (7%), Education 7%, Construction (6%)

Relative Occupations: Farming, Material Movement/Handling, Construction, Transportation

Is Canby "Exurban" or a rapidly growing commercial center supporting a local rural economy?

IDK---but there is definitely a significant influence and population growth caused by a local demand for labor in the surrounding communities, and I think it probably would fit into this category, regardless of a significant economic and job environment tied to the local rural communities surrounding the city...

1992:  4,466 Votes (34D-40R- 26 Perot)      +6 R
2008: 7,287 Votes  (46D-52R)                     +6R
2012: 7,130 Votes  (42D-55R)                     +13R
2016: 8,069 Votes  (40D-49R)                     +9R    (4% Write-In, 6% Libertarian, 2% Green)

So again, as in many similar communities in Oregon, it doesn't appear that there was a "Latino Surge" towards Clinton, but likely many younger voters defecting to 3rd Party candidates....

4.) Sandy---- (89% White, 6% Latino)--- (MHI $57.0k/Yr)

One could certainly make a strong argument that Sandy is in many ways more of a rural population center than an exurban community, but I will defer to the regional understandings rather than try to reinterpret...

1992: 1,830 Votes (36D- 37R- 27 Perot)     +1R
2008: 3,862 Votes (50D-47R)                     +3 D
2012: 4,004 Votes (46D-50R)                     +4R
2016: 4,853 Votes (36D- 52R)                    +16 R   (4% Write-In, 6% Libertarian, 2% Green)

These results look more typical of a small-town city that is much more rural than exurban, but at the same time there has been a major population growth that is more typical of Exurban communities than anything else.... Anyone more familiar with Sandy want to fill in the blanks on this one???

Regardless, Clinton's performance in the Exurbs (Wilsonville & Happy Valley) definitely appear to have played a role in her outperforming Obama-Romney '12 margins in Clackamas.

[NOVA Green]

Thanks for doing Lake County!

Any time Comrade....

In Lake County, our cells are latent and usually are more similar to the three person cells, much like the Resistance Cells in France and Italy in the 1930s and early/late '40s, unlike places like Hamburg, Bremen, & Berlin, where we adopted larger cell structures as part of the resistance (more akin to the Portland, Eugene, Corvallis, and Ashland?)

Ok--- all joking aside, it is still fascinating that in the most "Trump" county in the state, that Liberal Democratic Senator Ron Wyden was able to perform so well, not just in the "Big City" of Lakeview, but even in rural Cattle precincts within the County.

Meanwhile, I saw a report today the the RNC is now targeting two congressional districts in Oregon CD-04 and CD-05, solely because Trump actually did extremely well (Although the Pub candidates significantly under-performed Trump)....

I will need to roll some numbers on the Congressional results and variance against the Presidential results, but currently my theory is that in both districts you had a significant defection to the Left among typical Democratic constituencies, combined with a defection to the Right on the Presidential level among voters that have voted Democratic for the past four election cycles in rural and WWC Mill towns in Oregon....

Regardless, let the RNC sink a ton of wasted money into trying to swing OR-04 and OR-05, in the case of the former we have a Progressive Democratic US Rep (DeFazio) that has actually deliberately poked a stick in the eye of environmentalists at times with logging issues, stood up for both workers and environmentalist alike when it comes to fundamental Labor Rights and Global Warming, a key Leader of the Progressive Caucus in the US House, and strongly opposed outsourcing of Oregon Forests being shipped overseas, where the products are milled out of state, so that we can buy some cheap TP at our neighborhood Walmart.

CD-05 is a bit trickier..... in theory it should be a more Republican district than it actually is....

One of the first political campaigns that I worked on was in the late '80s/early '90s and the goal was to take the 3-2 Oregon Republican US Rep majority to a 3-2 Dem majority (At that point it was assumed that OR-01 would be Republican because of the dominance of Upper-Income voters in WashCo).

The target was Denny Smith "aka Reagan's Robot", who would consistently support every extremist policy platform (Foreign, Social, and Economic) regardless of the opinions of his constituents....

The wealthy Portland suburbs of Clackamas were ground zero---- hammer him on extremely unpopular voting positions on environmental policies in places like Lake Oswego and West Linn.

Build the base in WWC Democratic strongholds of Oregon City, Gladstone....

Increase the turnout and support levels in the relatively Liberal cities Corvallis & Salem...

Create a tie in Albany/Keizer Oregon....

Minimize the losses in the rural precincts and do a compare/contrast on economic policy....

Although the Trumpistas might have dominated in Lake County, and similar communities in Southern and SE Oregon, I'm not convinced that this is a transferable voting characteristic, although certainly I am the first to admit and have pointed out on several occasions cities/precincts/counties where there was a downballot effect (Coos County springs to mind).... This is still a subject that needs further review.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Part V: Unincorporated Metro Portland 25.4% of County Votes

Deciding how to code unincorporated vs rural precincts was a bit problematic in this regard, since frequently there are overlaps in terms of expansion of population in rural areas, where newcomers might actually commute outside of the rural area and into the cities, suburbs, and exurbs.

Oregon perhaps make it a bit easier than some other states, because the comprehensive land use planning law essentially makes it extremely difficult to add/develop areas outside of the urban growth boundaries, and is designed to protect farmland and timber land against rampant urban sprawl.

Some of my decisions regarding which precincts to include as unincorporated vs rural might be legitimately debatable, but for starters everything located West and North of I-205 pretty clearly fits into this definition....

Additionally, I included areas East of I-205 North of the Clackamas Industrial Area/Mt Talbert (Areas around Happy Valley), and then stretched the map East to include the areas around Damascus and Sunnyside, more Exurban Uninc) North of the 224, cutting off around 242nd Ave and basically starting the area around Boring, Oregon as rural....

2012: 46,475 Votes (24.3% of County Votes)----(54D-43R)   +11 D
2016: 52,206 Votes (25.4% of County Votes)----(51D-38R)   +13 D(4%Write-In, 5% Lib, 2% Green)

So obviously we are talking about a pretty huge chunk of votes from just these areas, and a larger amount of raw votes than most counties in the State....

In a County as fiercely contested by both parties, the difference in just a few percentage points can make the difference between a W and an L.

1.) "Inner Uninc Areas"----

This basically includes the areas surrounding Lake Oswego, Milwaukee, Portland, Gladstone, & West Linn..... areas West & North of I-205.

2012: 27,807 Votes---   (57D-40R)     +17D
2016: 30,691 Votes----  (54D-35R)      +19D

So what happened here?

Generally these communities tended to mirror the voting trends/swings in their surrounding inner suburban communities...

A.) Precincts 280,282, & 283--- 2.2k Voters (Upper Income) swung heavily towards Clinton and Trump captured less than 1/3 votes.... Precinct 283 (Forest Highlands-Birdhill) saw one of the wildest swings between 2012 (52-47 D) and 2016 (62-27D), a +30D swing!!!  This precinct is also 16% Asian-American, (Roughly half Chinese-Americans) one of the highest percentages of Asian-Americans in Clackamas County....

Similar patterns around the leafy mansions of Rosemont Rd - Stafford Rd SE of Lake Oswego and SW of West Linn--- 1.1k Voters (Precinct 320). The results went from 2012 (47D-51R) to (52D-36R)....

B.) Uninc Areas around Milwaukee--- (Pcts 419,420,421, & 422)---- 7176 Votes (

We see a mixture of results with some swinging towards Clinton and some towards Trump (Compared to '12 baseline)....

The biggest swing towards Trump was in Precinct #420, which is basically a small precinct squeezed between SW Portland and Milwaukee....

2012: 510 votes (64D-32R)    +32D
2016: 568 votes (54D-33R)    +21 D

So really no increase in the Republican numbers, just a drop off of Democratic voters towards 3rd Party candidates (Libertarian- 6.7%).

If we look at the larger precincts, Overland Park (3.5k Votes) went from:

2012: (63D-33R)       +30D
2016: (55D-33R)       +22D

I can't tell for sure based upon the census tract level data I'm looking at, but it appears to have an MHI of only $39.4k/Yr and is 10% Latino....

So it looks like in the most working-class precincts of Uninc ClackCo, all of the drop-off was a defection to the Left and 3rd Party candidates, and no swing towards Trump at all!

Time to dip into the breadbasket of Uninc Inner Clackamas----

C.) Oak Grove / Jennings Lodge---- 16,340 Votes

This area tucked in from the NW side of Gladstone to the SW corners of Milwaukee is basically big enough to be it's own city in Oregon....

Precincts: 500, 501, 502, 503, 504, & 505....

83% White, 9% Latino, 2% Black, 4% Mixed----  MHI $55.1k/Yr...

Although generally it averages as a pretty Middle-Class "neighborhood" there are some dramatic differences with some areas only an MHI of $39k/Yr and others above $67k/Yr....

2012: 14,759 Votes (59D-38R)     +21 D
2016: 16,340 Votes (56D-33R)     +23 D      (4.0% Write-In, 4.7% Libertarian, 2.8% Green)

So again, looks like more of a swing towards the Left among 3rd Party Voters... in 4/6 of these precincts there was a swing towards Clinton, and in only 2/6 a swing towards Trump....

Precinct # 504 (Jennings Lodge-North) voted in 2012 (58D-39R) and in '16 voted (51D-36R).... meanwhile Write-Ins (Bernie?) got 5%, Johnson 5%, and Stein 3.3%....

2.) Outer Uninc Areas.... 21,515 Votes

Basically areas outside of Happy Valley and Damascus... many of these areas are more like Uninc Exurbia than Uninc Suburban....

2012: 19,402 Votes (49D-49* R)     +0 R
2016: 21,515 Votes (46D-44R)        +2 D   (3.7% Write-Ins, 5.1% Libertarian, 1.8% Green)

So even in a part of Uninc Clackamas that frequently votes Republican, we actually see Clinton narrowly eking out a win over Trump, with again a significant defection to the Left.

Now some of coding that for example included a rural/exurban precinct of Mulino and parts of Damascus, might be controversial when defined as "Uninc" vs "Rural", but it still illustrates the interesting swing towards Clinton that we saw in Clackamas County.....

So for example, we see Damascus swing towards Trump, with a decrease level of Dem support and Clinton capturing only 34-37% vs Obama's 38-44% in '12.... meanwhile Romney captured 54-59% vs Trump's 53-57%.

If we swing over towards Uninc areas of Happy Valley & Sunnyside, we see a net gain in margins for the Democratic candidate between '12 and '16, although like in many parts of Oregon, a significant defection to the Left.

[NOVA Green]

....

To me, the even more shocking thing about Wyden's strength is his support for the TPP (so much that the Working Families Party ran a candidate against him). Not necessarily sure what was on the minds of Trump voters in Lake County, but I'm guessing it wasn't trade.

Did the town of Paisley have any interesting results? It's always fascinating how such a small settlement can actually have a real city structure. Down south in CA, we have a few towns like that, but there's also large "towns" that are unincorporated.

....

Point #1- Bolded---- "the even more shocking thing about Wyden's strength is his support for the TPP (so much that the Working Families Party ran a candidate against him"

This is an interesting point, considering how well he performed not only in traditional "Liberal Democratic" stronghold counties but even in counties that have been trending Republican over the past decade or so (Coos, Columbia, and Linn spring immediately to mind), as well as within the "Farm Belt" of the Columbia River Valley (Look at Wasco, Sherman, Gilliam, Morrow, & Umatilla) and even down in places like Klamath County....

There were obviously a significant number of Trump/Wyden voters in many parts of the state...

Now, if we look at votes for the "Left" in 2016 Senate Race, we see three candidates that collectively captured 8.8% of the vote (Working Family Parties, Pacific Green Party, and Steven Cody Reynolds (Independent) who ran against the US-OR-House-CD01 Democratic candidate in '14....

http://oregonvotes.gov/voters-guide/english/stevencreynolds.html

It is actually somewhat amazing that Wyden performed as well as he did, considering this level of defection....

I voted for the WFP candidate in the OR Senate GE election, not mainly based on the Trade issue,  since Wyden has generally stood up for the interests of Oregonian workers and businesses alike when it comes to trade policy, and although it sounds like more of an Al Gore 2000 style Democrat "labor and environmental standards" yada... yada... yada.

I voted for a 3rd Party Candidate since he was part of the Democratic Establishment that tried to coronate Clinton as the Democratic Party nominee, before a single vote had been cast....

So, let's pull up a few example to see how the 3rd Party vote played out in Columbia County, which many were shocked as having voted for a Republican President for the first time since the New Deal...

Wyden bags 50% vs the Pubs 39%...

Meanwhile, the highest defection to the WFP candidate are in the Mill Towns in the county...

Clatskanie- 4.7%,
Rainier-     4.0%
St Helens---- 3.6% (?)

Let's roll to the highest level of support for the Independent Candidate (Former Pacific Green Party Opposed to TPP)

We see a mixture of support, with precincts in Deer Island bagging about 6% of the vote, Vernonia (Logging rural town/area) 5% etc....  Scappoose was the lowest level of support within the county running about 3%....)

Going into Coos County--- we see Wyden winning the traditionally Democratic Cities of Coos Bay & North Bend (That swung heavily towards Trump in the GE).... meanwhile we see the two main candidates from the Left (Navickas and Lewallen) capturing over 8%, even ignoring the Green Vote...

We can even go into Linn County, where Wyden captured 42% versus 47% for the Republican, and you see 7% voting for a combination of the WFP candidate and the "Independent" former Green candidate....

Anyway you look at it, it's clear that there is a yearning, even among many Republican leaning voters, as well as Democrats for a 3rd Party voice that stands up against both political parties on this subject.

It's also pretty clear, that there were many Republicans throughout Oregon that felt personally comfortable that Wyden would represent their broader interests, regardless of partisan ideaology, and certainly Oregon does benefit from grain exports to Asia... it still doesn't explain Wyden's performance in SE Oregon, other than just time on the clock and attentiveness to his constituents throughout the state.

2.) Paisley----  Not a particular expert on this precinct/community but here's a breakdown of recent results from '08 to '16

2008: President:          (21D-76R)
2008: US Senate:        (16D-77R)
2008: OR SoS              (19D- 67R)
2008: OR Treasurer      (21D- 60R)
2010: US Senate:        (32D-60R)
2010: OR Gov:             (18D-73R)
2012: President:          (15D-79R)
2012: OR Treasurer      (21D-64R)
2014: US Senate:        (23D-67R)
2014: OR Gov:            (15D-80R)
2016: President:         (13D- 82R)
2016: US Senate:        (27D-63R)


It does appear that Paisley has a pattern of traditionally supporting Democratic US Senators at a much higher level than Democratic Presidential and Statewide candidates....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #23: Clackamas County---- Part VI: Rural ClackCo (25.1% of County Votes)

Time to shift to the rural parts of the county .... These areas account for the second largest number of votes , only narrowly behind unincorporated areas in 2016.

This includes two incorporated small towns within this category Molalla and Estacada, as well as a huge amount of land area that is predominately farming or public/private timber land....
.
2012: 47,050 Votes (41.7 D- 55.3 R)      +13.6 R
2016: 51.585 Votes (34.3 D- 55.2 R)      +20.9 R    (3.8% Write-In, 5.1 Lib, 1.6 Green)

Towns:

1.) Molalla- Pop 8.2k-  (1.7% of County Votes- 7.0% of Rural Votes)

Race/Ethnicity- (88.3% White, 6.8% Latino, 3.7% Black).... One of the youngest cities in Oregon with 28% of the population <18....  with Latinos significantly overrepresented among both the youngest age group, as well as the 20-24 age bracket.

Median Household Income is $48.1k/Yr (towards the bottom of the County)

Occupationally: Administrative (14.2%), Sales (11.4%), Mgmt (7.8%), Construction (7.6%), Repair (7.4%), Production (7.2%), Material Moving (6.1%), Food Service (6.0%)

Relative Occupations---- Repair, Material Moving, Construction, Health Care support, Transportation, & production are disproportionately represented.

This history of Molalla has historically long been associated with the timber industry, and although today there are only two mills remaining, it is still an important part of the communities social and collective identity.

https://www.rsgfp.com/locations

https://books.google.com/books?id=nLLO_ythv_4C&pg=PA113&lpg=PA113&dq=molalla+oregon+timber&source=bl&ots=frScFDCJ64&sig=7Sd70YsMxbHqVzeLDsfMDqRE1Fk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwify8Do5ovSAhUQS2MKHSx7Cw04ChDoAQg7MAk#v=onepage&q=molalla%20oregon%20timber&f=false

As elsewhere in Oregon, China is increasingly seen as one of the major causes of recent mill closures, and in just the past few days I saw tons of Oregon logs being loaded up onto a giant Cargo Ship "African Raven" in Astoria, Oregon, railroad car after railroad car loaded with logs along Hwy-30 heading to the Ports of the Columbia River, rather than being milled here in Oregon which would provide 3x as many jobs to hard hit Oregon Timber Mills...

https://blog.forest2market.com/pacific-northwest-mill-closures-industry-adapts-to-survive

(Scroll down to the "Changing Markets, Revenue, and Considerations" section of the industry blog)

Molalla Presidential Election Results....

1992: (37 D- 36 R- 27 Perot)      +1 D
2008: (43 D- 54 R)                     +11 R
2012: (37 D- 59 R)                     +22 R
2016: (28 D- 59 R)                     +31 R     (4% Write-Ins, 8% Libertarian, 2% Green)

Wow!----- So a 15 point drop in Dem support since '08 and a 20 point swing since '08....

Note, as I have observed elsewhere, as in many other similar communities in Oregon much of movement of Democratic voters towards Republican Pres candidates actually happened between '08 and '12, with the movement between '12 and '16 more a case of many Obama '12 voters opting for 3rd Party Candidates (No net Republican % increase).....

2.) Estacada- Pop 2.8k-  (0.7% of County Vote, 2.9% of Rural Vote)

Race/Ethnicity- (84.5% White, 10.1% Latino, 1.8% Black, 1.4% Asian).  If you look at ages between 10-18, Latinos make up roughly 20% of the population...

Median Household Income: $45.5k/Yr.... So still on the lower end of the rung compared to surrounding communities, as well as areas within "Metro Portland".

Occupations: Administrative (16.2%), Sales (13.8%), Construction (11.6%), Food Service (6.7%), Facilities (6.3%), Transportation (6.1%).

Relative Occupations: Construction, Material Moving, Transportation, Facilities, Social Services, and Repair all stand out as significantly over-represented compared to the statewide workforce.

Educationally: 15.9% with a degree higher than a HS degree (Including 2 year). 9.9% Bachelor Degree or Higher....

Similar to Molalla, Estacada had its roots as a logging/mill town, although the hydro dam & railroads came first and then the mills, and as a result of the railroad became a "weekend vacation" spot for Portlandiers.... As with Molalla, the decline of the Timber industry has caused the city/surrounding region major economic challenges.

https://oregonencyclopedia.org/articles/estacada/

Christmas Tree farming has increasingly supplanted Timber production in the surrounding areas, along with the cousin of Christmas Tree farming in Oregon, Marijuana production, which I heard first-hand from the son of one of the local residents of the area some ten years back in time.

There is still a mill in Estacada, owned by RSG, the same company that owns a mill in Molalla, as well as in several timber communities in SW Washington State.

Politically Estacada:

1992: (41 D- 31 R- 28 Perot)           +10 D
2008: (49 D- 47 R)                          + 2 D
2012: (48* D- 48 R)                        + 0 D
2016: (35 D- 54 R)                          +19 R  (5% Write-Ins, 6% Libertarian, 1% Green)

So here we clearly have a number of Obama '12/'16 voters that went for Trump (6% of Voters), so unlike Molalla, the Democratic dropoff happened between '12 and '16 vs '08 to '12. Pattern of massive defection to 3rd Party candidates remains the same.

3.) Rural Precincts Proper

So how to break these down becomes the challenge, since precinct boundaries do not easily overlap into Census Bureau tracts, precinct boundaries are not easily identifiable since I lack a Clackamas County precinct map from 2008 (Anyone that has one in their possession please send me a PM)....

What I can do is look at some of the most Democratic and Republican precincts in Clackamas and take a look at the swings between '12 and '16, throw in a mixture of census data that roughly corresponds to the '12/'16 boundaries, add in a dash of comparative numbers from '08 or possibly '92 (Where applicable) to see what we can read from the tea leaves of precinct level data, without some of the historical context to be able to see changes over the past few decades....

Let's start with a few of the heaviest Republican Precincts in 2016....

A.) Far Rural SE County- Precincts # 351 & 361-  (1.5% of County Vote, 6.5% of Rural Vote)

Located SE of Molalla (See above) the land mass of these precincts are overwhelmingly dominated by Federally owned Forest Land....

This region is heavily dominated by individuals who currently or previously worked in the forest products industries (Logging & Millworkers), as well as private land owners who own timber land that they sell to independent logging outfits, that outsource certain functions like trucking/transportation to independent operators, as well as many small business owners dependent upon the revenue that comes into their businesses from neighbors, friends, and family that work or have worked in the industry.

2012: 2,724 Votes (35.4% D- 61.3% R)        +26 R
2016: 3,030 Votes (25.0% D- 65.1% R)        +40 R   (Write-Ins 3.2%, Lib 4.9%, Green 1.6%)

So if we look at a few of the '08 precincts that look like they are a part of the current precinct (#356 Dickey Prairie & Liberal (#351) we see it more like a (38D-59R)....  I suspect that precinct #354 (Colton East) might also be part of the current precinct boundaries (42D- 54 R), but regardless, there was a clear trend towards Trump from Obama '12 voters, combined with 2-3% of Obama '08 voters switching over to Romney in '12.

B.) SW Clackamas- (Marquam Maple Grove- Pct # 352)- (0.9% County Vote, 3.6% Rural Vote)

Located SW of Molalla in the foothills of the Cascade Mountain Range, is still a region where agriculture generally is still associated with timber, and not Grass Seed or other agricultural products more common in the Willamette Valley proper....

2012: 1,670 Voters---  (31 D- 66 R)      +34 R
2016: 1,849 Voters---  (26 D- 65 R)      +39 R   (2.4% Write-Ins, 4.9% Libertarian, 1.7% Green)

ok---- Nothing too dramatic here, unlike in the more heavily rural timber regions to the East/SE.

C.) South and South East of Estacada (Precincts # 362 & 363).... (0.9% of County Votes and 3.8% of Rural Votes)

Located on the NW edge of the National Forests of the Coast Range, these precincts saw the greatest swings between '12 and '16.... Again, this is current and legacy timber country.

2012: 1,687 Votes (46 D- 52 R)     +6 R
2016: 1,779 Votes (32 D- 59 R)     +27 R       (3% Write-In, 4% Libertarian, 1% Green)

D.) East of Sandy (Bull Run-Cherryville)- Precinct # 370-  (1.1% County Vote, 4.4% Rural Vote)

Another area on the edge of the National Forests, this time on the Western Slopes the Northern part of the Cascade Mountain Range.....

2012: 2,071 Votes (44 D- 53 R)     +9 R
2016: 2,269 Votes (33 D- 56 R)    +23 R    (4% Write-In, 5% Libertarian, 2% Green)

E.) Sandy Rural South and SW- (Precinct # 371)

Again a fairly Democratic rural precinct.... (0.8% of County Vote, 3.2% of Rural Vote)

2012: 1,547 Votes (45 D- 52 R)    +7 R
2016: 1,664 Votes (36 D- 54 R)    +18 R     (4% Write-In, 4% Libertarian, 2% Green)

F.) Mt Hood---Brightwood/Welches/Government Camp (Precinct #373)- 1.5% County Vote, 5.9% of Rural Vote.

The most Democratic rural precinct..... A mixture of upper-income Portlandier retirees, some younger ski-bums, as well as to a lesser extent resource impacted communities.

2012: 2,269 Votes (55 D- 41 R)      +14 D
2016: 3,040 Votes (46 D- 41 R)      + 5  D   (4% Write-In, 5% Libertarian, 3% Green)

I could roll through a few more areas such as Beavercreek 2012 (43 D- 54 R) in 2016 (34 D- 55 R) with another 6% or more of the rural County vote, but with a few exceptions, there wasn't really much of a significant gain in Republican Presidential vote % numbers between '12 and '16, but rather a significant drop in Democratic support to 3rd Party candidates....

That being said, the collapse of rural Democratic support in Southern Oregon and Linn County didn't happen overnight either..... it was rather an incremental drop-off starting with a huge support for Perot in '92 and by 2000 and 2004, many of these voters were starting to abandon the Democratic Party for good at the Presidential level, although Obama in '08 was able to pull some of these ancestral Democratic voters back in....

Is the defection of Democratic voters in '16 towards 3rd Party candidates, and to a lesser extent Trump in rural Oregon and Mill Towns a temporary phenomenon relevant only in this one election, or is it a sign of something larger and more permanent?

[NOVA Green]

So here are the 2016 Presidential GE Results for the 100 largest cities in Oregon, by order of population....

Missing a few cities in certain counties, because of precinct issues, maybe RI or someone else could help with that, but it's a pretty comprehensive review of '12/'16 Presidential GE results for almost all of the population centers in Oregon...


1.) Portland- 594.7k---- 2016: (78-13 D); 2012: (79-16 D)         +2% Dem Swing
2.) Eugene-  157.3k---  2016: (66-23 D); 2012: (69-26 D)         +0% Swing
3.) Salem-    156.9k---  2016: (50-39 D); 2012: (54-42 D)         +1% Rep Swing
4.) Gresham- 107.2k--- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (55-42 D)         +3% Rep Swing
5.) Hillsboro-  107.2k--- 2016: (55-32 D); 2012: (56-39 D)        +6% Dem Swing
6.) Beaverton- 91.4k----2016: (63-25 D)2012: (62-34 D)           +10% Dem Swing
7.) Bend----     87.1k--- 2016: (52-36 D); 2012: (53-44 D)         +7 % Dem Swing
8.) Medford--   75.9k--- 2016: (39-51 R); 2012: (43-54 R)          +1% Rep Swing
9.) Springfield--59.7k--  2016: (47-40 D); 2012: (55-39 D)         +9% Rep Swing
10.) Corvallis-- 54.7k--  2016: (70-18 D); 2012: (69-25 D)        +8 % Dem Swin
11.) Albany---- 50.8k-- 2016:  (40-47 R); 2012: (46-49 R)         +4% Rep Swing
12.) Tigard---   49.0k-- 2016: (58-30 D); 2012: (56-40 D)          +12% Dem Swing   
13.) Lake Oswego- 37.0k- 2016: (63-26 D); 2012: (57-41 D)     +20% Dem Swing
14.) Keizer---   36.7k---   2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (45-53 R)       +2% Rep Swing
15.) Grants Pass-- 34.5k- 2016: (32-58 R); 2012: (39-57 R)      +8 % Rep Swing
16.) McMinville-- 32.2k--- 2016: (47-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +0% Swing
17.) Oregon City- 33.1k-  2016: (45-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +2% Rep Swing
18.) Redmond-- 26.2k--  2016: (31-58 R); 2012: (37-59 R)       +5% Rep Swing
19.) Tualatin-- 26.4k--    2016: (53-34 D); 2012: (51-46 D)      +14% Dem Swing
20.) West Linn- 25.5k-- 2016: (60-29 D); 2012: (55-44 D)         +20% Dem Swing
21.) Woodburn--- 24.1k-- 2016: (51-40 D);  2012: (52-45 D)       +4% Dem Swing
22.) Newberg--- 22.1k--- 2016: (40-45 R); 2012: (43-53 R)         +5% Dem Swing
23.) Roseburg-- 21.2k--- 2016: (34-55 R); 2012: (41-55 R)          +7% Rep Swing
24.) Forest Grove-- 21.6k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (53-41 D)     +4% Rep Swing
25.) Klamath Falls--- TBD
26.) Milwaukie-  20.4k- 2016: (60-28 D); 2012: (65-32 D)             +1% Rep Swing
27.) Ashland--- 20.4k-- 2016: (79-12 D); 2012: (81-14 D)             +0% Swing
28.) Wilsonville- 19.6k-  2016: (50-38 D); 2012: (48-48* R)          +12% Dem Swing
29.) Sherwood--- 19.4k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (47-50 R)          +11% Dem Swing
30.) Central Point--- 17.3k-- 2016: (28-63 R); 2012: (34-63 R)      +6% Rep Swing
31.) Hermistion--- TBD
32.) Pendleton---  TBD
33.) Coos Bay---  16.0k-  2016: (40-49 R); 2012: (52-44 D)          +17% Rep Swing
34.) Troutdale--- 16k-     2016: (44-43 D); 2012: (51-46 D)          +4% Rep Swing
35.) Canby----    16.6k-  2016: (40-49 R); 2012: (42-55 R)           +4% Dem Swing
36.) Lebanon-     15.6k-- 2016: (31-54 R); 2012: (42-53 R)         +12% Rep Swing
37.) Dallas--- 14.7k-- 2016:  (34-55 R); 2012: (43-53 R)              +11% Rep Swing
38.) Happy Valley- 14.9k- 2016: (49-41 D); 2012: (46-53 R)        +15% Dem Swing
39.) The Dalles-- 15.3k-- 2016:  (42-45 R); 2012:  (50-47 D)        +6% Rep Swing
40.) La Grande--- TBD
41.) St Helens--- 12.9k-- 2016: (39-47 R); 2012: (54-41 D)        +21% Rep Swing
42.) Cornelius-   12.0k-- 2016:  (52-36 D); 2012: (54-41 D)        +5% Dem Swing
43.) Gladstone- 11.6k-- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (54-43 D)          +1% Rep Swing
44.) Ontario----  TBD
45.) Damascus--- Will need to look into further. 
46.) Newport---- 10.1k-- 2016: (55-35 D); 2012: (62-35 D)         +7% Rep Swing
47.) Baker City-  TBD
48.) North Bend--- 9.6k--- 2016: (37-52 R); 2012: (49-48 D)    +16% Rep Swing
49.) Cottage Grove--- 10k-- 2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (51-46 D)  +15% Rep Swing
50.) Sandy-- 9.7k-     2016: (36-52 R); 2012: (46-50 R)            +12% Rep Swing
51.) Monmouth--9.5k-- 2016: (52-34 D); 2012: (53-42 D)        +7% Dem Swing
52.) Astoria-- 9.5k--    2016: (59-29 D); 2012: (64-31 D)           +3% Rep Swing
53.) Prineville---- TBD
54.) Silverton--- 9.3k---   2016: (45-42 D);  2012: (51-46 D)     +2% Rep Swing
55.) Sweet Home--9.0k-- 2016: (26-63 R);  2012: (36-60 R)     +13% Rep Swing
56.) Fairview--- 9.0k---    2016: (52-38 D);  2012: (57-39 D)     +4% Rep Swing
57.) Independence--9.5k--- 2016: (48-39 D); 2012: (54-40 D)  +5% Rep Swing
58.) Eagle Point--- 8.5k--- 2016: (23-69 R); 2012: (31-67 R)    +10% Rep Swing
59.) Florence--- 8.5k-- 2016: (45-46 R); 2012: (50-46 D)         +5% Rep Swing
60.) Molalla--- 8.2k--- 2016: (28-59 R); 2012: (37-59 R)           +9% Rep Swing
61.) Lincoln City--- 7.9k-- 2016: (48-41 D); 2012: (59-37 D)    +15% Rep Swing
62.) Sutherlin--- 7.8k-- 2016:  (26-65 R); 2012: (34-62 R)       +11% Rep Swing
63.) Stayton--- 3.4k-- 2016: (30-58 R); 2012: (37-60 R)          +5% Rep Swing
64.) Hood River--- 7.2k-- 2016: (69-22 D); 2012: (69-27 D)     +5% Dem Swing
65.) Milton-Freewater--- TBD
66.) Umatilla--- TBD
67.) Scappoose- 6.6k--- 2016: (44-42 D); 2012: (53-43 D)       +8% Rep Swing
68.) Seaside--- 6.5k-- 2016: (50-38 D); 2012: (58-38 D)          +8% Rep Swing
69.) Brookings-- 6.3k-- 2016: (31-59 R); 2012: (38-58 R)         +8% Rep Swing
70.) Sheridan--   6.1k-- 2016: (32-57 R); 2012: (43-52 R)         +16% Rep Swing
71.) Talent--     6.1k-- 2016: (62-27 D); 2012: (65-31 D)            +1% Dem Swing
72.) Madras----   6.1k-- 2016: (35-51 R); 2012: (46-50 R)          +22% Rep Swing
73.) Junction City--- 5.5k--- 2016: (33-55 R); 2012: (42-52 R)    +12% Rep Swing
74.) Winston--- 5.4k-- 2016: (25-66 R); 2012: (35-62 R)            +14% Rep Swing
75.) Creswell--- 5.0k-- 2016: (35-53 R); 2016: (44-52 R)            +10% Rep Swing
76.) Warrenton- 5.1k--- 2016: (37-51 R); 2012: (47-49 R)          +12% Rep Swing
77.) Tillamook--- 4.9k-- 2016:  (38-47 R); 2012: (50-46 D)          +11% Rep Swing
78.) Philomath--- 4.6k- 2016: (48-36 D); 2012: (56-38 D)           +6% Rep Swing
79.) Veneta-----  4.6k-- 2016:  (35-53 R); 2012: (45-50 R)          +13% Rep Swing
80.) Phoenix--- 4.6k-- 2016: (48-43 D); 2012: (53-44 D)             +4% Rep Swing
81.) Reedsport-- 4.2k--- 2016:  (35-56 R); 2012: (45-52 R)         +14% Rep Swing
82.) Wood Village- 3.9k-- 2016: (50-37 D); 2012: (60-36 D)        +11% Rep Swing
83.) Coquille--- 3.9k-- 2016: (27-63 R); 2012: (39-56 R)             +19% Rep Swing   
84.) LaFayette--- Unknown. Split Precinct???
85.) Aumsville- 3.7k-- 2016: (24-64 R); 2012: (31-65)                +6% Rep Swing
86.) Harrisburg--- 3.6k-- 2016: (27-63 R); 2012: (35-62 R)         +9% Rep Swing
87.) Toledo--- 3.5k--- 2016: (38-49 R); 2012: (53-42 D)             +22% Rep Swing
88.) Myrtle Creek- 3.4k-- 2016: (23-69 R); 2012: (34-63 R)        +17% Rep Swing
89.) Mount Angel- 3.4k---2016: (38-50 R); 2012: (43-55 R)        +0% Swing
90.) Nyssa----TBD
91.) Boardman-- TBD
92.) Oakridge--- 3.2k--- 2016: (39-48 R); 2012: (50-42 D)      +17% Rep Swing
93.) Hubbard--  3.2k--   2016: (39-49 R); 2012:  (43-53 R)       +0% Swing
94.) Dundee--- 3.2k--- 2016: (42-45 R); 2012: (47-49 R)         +1% Rep Swing
95.) King City--  3.2k-- 2016: (57-36 D); 2012: (57-40 D)        +4% Dem Swing
96.) Jefferson--- 3.1k-- 2016: (28-60 R); 2012: (37-59 R)         +10 Rep Swing
97.) Bandon--- 3.1k... 2016: (46-45 D); 2012: (52-43 D)          +8% Rep Swing
98.) Shady Cove
99.) Burns-- TBD
100.) Jacksonville--- 2.8k--- 2016: (47-45 D); 2012: (45-53 R)   +10% Dem Swing

[NOVA Green]

Top 25 Most Democratic Cities/Towns (Municipalities in Oregon- 2016 of Top 100 in State by Pop):

1.) Ashland-            Pop 20.4-   (79-12 D)
2.) Portland-           Pop 594.7k (78-13 D)
3.) Corvallis-           Pop 54.7k   (70-18 D)
4.) Hood River-       Pop  7.2k    (69-22 D)
5.) Eugene             Pop 157.3k (66-23 D)
6.) Beaverton         Pop   91.4k (63-25 D)
7.) Lake Oswego     Pop   37.0k (63-26 D)
8.) Talent-              Pop     7.1k  (62-27 D)
9.) Milwaukie          Pop   20.4k  (60-28 D)
10.) West Linn        Pop   25.5k  (60-29 D)
11.) Astoria            Pop     9.5k   (59-29 D)
12.) Tigard             Pop   49.0k   (58-30 D)
13.) King City         Pop    3.2k    (57-36 D)
14.) Hillsboro         Pop  107.2k   (55-32 D)
15.) Newport         Pop    10.1k   (55-35 D)
16.) Tualatin         Pop    26.4k    (53-34 D)
17.) Monmouth     Pop     9.5k    (52-34 D)
18.) Bend             Pop    87.1k    (52-36 D)
18.) Cornelius       Pop    12.0k    (52-36 D)
20.) Fairview        Pop      9.0k     (52-38 D)
21.) Woodburn     Pop    24.1k     (51-40 D)
22.) Wood Village  Pop     3.9k     (50-37 D)
23.) Wilsonville     Pop    19.6k    (50-38 D)
23.) Seaside         Pop     6.5k     (50-38 D)
25.) Salem           Pop    156.9k  (50-39 D)

Top 25 Most Republican Cities/Towns (Municipalities) in Oregon of Top 100 Populated in State:

1.) Eagle  Point---   Pop   8.5k (23-69 R)
1.) Myrtle Creek     Pop   3.4k (23-69 R)
3.) Winston            Pop  5.4k  (25-66 R)
4.) Aumsville          Pop  3.7k  (24-64 R)
5.) Sweet Home     Pop  9.0k  (26-63 R)
6.) Coquille            Pop  3.9k  (27-63 R)
6.) Harrisburg        Pop  3.6k  (27-63 R)
8.) Central Point    Pop 17.3k  (28-63 R)
9.) Jefferson          Pop  3.1k   (28-60 R)
10.) Molalla           Pop  8.2k   (28-59 R)
11.) Brookings      Pop   6.3k   (31-59 R)
12.) Stayton         Pop   3.4k   (30-58 R)
13.) Redmond       Pop 26.2k   (31-58 R)
14.) Grants Pass   Pop 34.5k   (32-58 R)
15.) Sheridan       Pop  6.1k    (32-57 R)
16.) Reedsport     Pop  4.2k    (35-56 R)
17.) Junction City Pop 5.5k    (33-55 R)
18.) Roseburg       Pop 21.2k  (34-55 R)
19.) Dallas            Pop 14.7k  (34-55 R)
20.) Lebanon        Pop 15.6k  (31-54 R)
21.) Crewsell        Pop  5.0k   (35-53 R)
21.) Veneta          Pop 4.6k    (35-53 R)   
23.) Sandy           pop 9.7k    (36-52 R)
24.) North Bend   Pop 9.6k    (37-52 R)
25.) Madras          Pop 6.1k    (35-51 R)

Top 10 Democratic Swings ('12-16)

1.) Lake Oswego    +20% Dem Swing
1.) West Linn         +20% Dem Swing
3.) Happy Valley     +15% Dem Swing
4.) Tualatin            +14% Dem Swing
5.) Tigard               +12% Dem Swing
5.) Wilsonville         +12% Dem Swing
7.) Sherwood          +11% Dem Swing
8.) Beaverton          +10% Dem Swing
8.) Jacksonville        +10% Dem Swing
10.) Corvallis           +8% Dem Swing

Top 10 Rep Swings 2012-2016:

1.) Toledo-     +22% Rep Swing
1.) Madras-    +22% Rep Swing
3.) St Helens   +21% Rep Swing
4.) Coquille      +19% Rep Swing
5.) Coos Bay-   +17% Rep Swing
5.) Myrtle Creek +17% Rep Swing
5.) Oakridge       +17% Rep Swing
8.) North Bend   +16% Rep Swing
8.) Sheridan       +16% Rep Swing

Also tied for #10: Cottage Grove & Lincoln City- 15% Rep Swing


Note: This excludes some counties in Eastern Oregon notably Klamath, Umatilla, Malheur, Klamath, Union, Baker, Crook, and Harney counties where I will update when and if I receive detailed city level precinct results.

[NOVA Green]

So, if we look at the most Democratic towns in Oregon, we don't see too many surprises at the very top, Ashland and Portland have been in recent cycles overwhelmingly and the the top two most Democratic towns in the state at the Presidential level.

In fact there was relatively little swing between '12 and '16 in either of these cities, likely because the Democratic vote has become essentially maxed out. Now, there was a significant drop off to 3rd Party support in some of the most Democratic precincts within Portland, and a significant increase of Dem support in many Upper-Middle Class precincts, so in theory, there might actually be some room for the Dems to expand in 2020 in both cities.

Hood River is that surprising as well, looks like there wsd some marginal Democratic swing, likely as either/or/ and a combo of increased turnout and swings in a town with a decent sized Latino population as well as a fairly socially Liberal population and a base of upper-income voters swinging against the Trumpster.

Corvallis is a bit interesting, since although it is one of the most Democratic towns in the State, there was a significant swing between '12 and '16. Likely this is because, although there is a large college population, many of the students don't actually vote at Corvallis addresses, but rather at their home addresses elsewhere in the State (Or even out of state for undergrads). Meanwhile you do have a large upper-income population that resides in Corvallis where there are still a significant population of
"independent swing voters" that supported Romney in '12, who were not attracted to Trump's message.

Eugene- Democratic gains in upper-income precincts in North Eugene were offset by some swings towards Trump in precincts in Working-Class West Eugene, combined with a huge surge of 3rd Party support in the overwhelmingly Democratic precincts of Inner West Eugene/ South Eugene, and some of the Central Parts of Eugene and near the University.

What *IS* surprising, as a longer term observer of Oregon politics, is the extent of the Democratic Swings in relatively Upper-Income regions of the Portland suburbs.... (Although we now have some comparitive data showing that +20% Dem swings were not unusual in 2016, even in heavily Republican wealthier communities in Texas, Tennessee for example).

So seeing communities like Lake Oswego, West Linn jump into the "Top Ten Dem list is a big deal, especially if it turns to a point where Republicans can only clear 25-30% in statewide races... Happy Valley, is in a similar category, and as the fastest growing city in Oregon, is typically the type of Exurban communities where the Republican Party for decades has done very well.

Equally and perhaps more significant in the long term, are the types of swings we see in more Multi-Ethnic communities of Washington County (Beaverton, Tigard and Tualatin).... There is a large population of Asian-American voters that appear to swung "Hard-D" in Oregon, based upon Precinct data from Washington County, as well as a significant Latino population on the West Slope communities.

The swings towards the Republicans in 2016 in Newport and Astoria is definitely something to watch, since both of these cities are typically in the Top Ten most Democratic cities in Oregon.... Granted there was likely significant defection to 3rd Party voters from traditionally Democratic constituencies, but this is still potentially significant considering these are Democratic strongholds in historically Democratic counties in WWC Coastal Oregon. Realignment doesn't happen in just one or two election cycles, so we will see.

On the Republican, side not necessarily a ton of surprises in the "Top 25 List", although Myrtle Creek tying for #1 is definitely huge.

The dramatic collapse of Democratic support in North Bend certainly stands out, that allowed entry into the Top 25 list in terms of rankings.

However, overall the most interesting item are the Top Ten most Republican swings in 2016....

If you roll through the list, the #1 item is Toledo, where the largest employer is Georgia-Pacific (Now owned by the Koch brothers), that still has large Pulp Mill.

We scroll through the list of Top Rep swings and for the most part we see a similar pattern.... Historically heavily Democratic smaller cities and towns, that have resisted much of the realignment that we saw in the 1990s and 2000s in many other parts of rural small Mill Town Oregon....

Sheridan is perhaps the major exception to that list, but with a large state prison, much of that swing might be related to the Trump "Law and Order" message in a community with a high proportion of employees directly tied to the correctional industry, as well as those within the broader community that have friends, neighbors, and family members with decent paying jobs within the Prison Industrial Complex.

Lincoln City also stands out, since it has been quite some time since there has been any manufacturing related operations within the City....

This brings up the additional point to be added, is that there are a large number of retirees (65+) there, as well as in many of the other communities where we saw the greatest '12 to '16 Rep swings, so age is definitely an additional variable, but in itself is not sufficient to explain the dramatic swings towards Trump in these particular communities.....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #24- Sherman County

Pop 1.9k----   MHI $42.6k/Yr

90% White, 4.5% Latino



Sherman County is part of the Oregon Grain belt, that includes several other counties within the region, that I will cover shortly. Oregon ranks #14 in Wheat production in the entire US, basically from a handful of low population density counties along the Columbia River Gorge.... Unlike other segments of the agricultural sector, it is more machine intensive versus labor intensive, so the shortage of agricultural labor that has been a major item in the fruit and vegetable growing regions of Oregon is less of an issue, than in places that are much more dependent upon seasonal farmworkers, where there is a shortage of labor because of the legal residency/work status of the migratory agricultural workforce....

Basically, it's a lot more like North Dakota or Kansas, but with much of the Wheat product destined for international exports, as a result of close proximity to the Columbia River, where Grain Silos attached to rails and ports, allow an easy export of product to international markets (Especially Asian markets).

http://www.oregonlive.com/travel/index.ssf/2013/09/oregon.html

http://www.ipmcenters.org/cropprofiles/docs/orwheat.pdf

I'm still a bit confused as to the reason for the massive swings in the Grain Belt of Oregon, considering, that actually HRC and TPP is something would would be a net gain for larger agricultural producers that are increasingly reliant on international exports to maintain margins at a time of collapsing domestic agricultural commodity pricing in the domestic market...

Maybe, someone with more insights on this topic can jump in and explain....

Presidential Election Results 1988-2016:

1988: (43-55 R)                    +12 R
1992: (33-38- 20 Perot)        +5  R
2000: (31-64 R)                    +33 R
2004: (35-63 R)                    +28 R
2008: (37-61 R)                    +24 R
2012: (31-66 R)                    +35 R
2016: (20-72 R)                    +52 R         (+17% R Swing)

Relative Industries:   5% utilities, 16% agricultural, 8% wholesale, 7% transportation, 9% government

Relative Occupations: 10% Transportation, 21% Management, 6% Repair, Farming 3.3%

Education: 26.6% with a 2+ year degree

Age: 25% of the population is 65+  (Pop skews significantly older than most parts of Oregon)

Ok--- so the logical question is why would I spend a few hours looking at one small county , where there are much fewer voters than in a single precinct in places like Portland, Eugene, and other large Metro areas within the state.

Firstly---this is a project of passion and love dissecting Oregon Election results by county & Precinct.

Secondly--- I firmly believe that relative occupations and industries are extremely important when looking at the national picture, particularly within the context of the 2016 Pres GE. Much of the focus thus far has been on education, income, and age among White voters, but I don't believe that truly explains the swings towards Trump among various populations.

So, my theory is that we can look at particular industries and occupations to see patterns among White voters in particular, since it is easier to control for that variable in a heavily White state, and then start to match results between Dairy, Pulp/Paper Mills, wheat farmers with other states in our great nation with similar demographics to see if there is a trend regarding industries and occupations, among key voting blocks that created an electoral college victory for Mr Trump.

There aren't very many precincts in a small county of <2k Pop, but let's roll some numbers to see if there is granularity that is potentially transferable statewide or beyond...

Precinct #1--- Rufus--- Basically includes the narrow band of population along the Columbia River and roughly 17% of the county voting population...

Like many other WWC small towns along the Columbia River used to be heavily ancestral New Deal Democratic...

1992: (44% D- 27% R- 29% Perot)           +17% D
2004: (51% D- 47% R)                             +4%  D
2008: (49% D- 47% R)                             +2%  D
2012: (42% D- 56% R)                             +14% R        (+16% R Swing)
2016: (28% D- 66% R)                             +38% R        (+24% R Swing)



Precinct #2: Wasco:



So, here we so a relatively stable precinct that narrowly supported Bill Clinton in '92, swing heavily towards Trump in '16. (32.5% of County Voters)

1992: (35-34-31 D)          +1 D
2004: (36-63 R)                +27 R
2008: (35-63 R)                +28 R
2012: (32-65 R)                +33 R
2016: (23-72 R)                +49 R     (+16% R Swing)

Precinct #3: Moro

26.7% of County Vote....

1992: (29 D- 46 R- 25 I)      +17 R
2004: (32 D- 66 R)              +34 R
2008: (40 D- 58 R)              +18 R
2012: (33 D- 62 R)              +29 R
2016: (19 D- 75 R)              +56 R     (+27% R Swing)

Precinct #4: Grass Valley:

16.5% of County Vote

1992: (30 D- 34 R- 32 I)         +4 R
2004: (30 D- 69 R)                  +39 R
2008: (29 D- 69 R)                  +40 R
2012: (21 D- 77 R)                  +56 R
2016: (15 D- 79 R)                  +64 R      (+8% R Swing)

Precinct #5: Kent   (Ranching Country)

http://www.ghosttowns.com/states/or/kent.html

7% of County Voters

1992: (14 D- 55 R- 31 I)         +44 R
2004: (18 D- 76 R)                 +58 R
2008: (22 D- 70 R)                 +48 R
2012: (16 D- 84 R)                 +68 R
2016: (7  D- 91 R)                  +84 R      (+16% R Swing)

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #25:  Gilliam County

Pop 1,9k ---   MHI $44.7k/Yr

89% White, 8% Latino



Another small county in the Oregon "Grain Belt" that swung heavily towards Trump....

Relative Industries: 15% Agriculture, Utilities 3%, Transportation 11 %, Administrative 12%, Science 3%, Construction 10%, Government 6%

Relative Occupations: Farming 8%, Transportation 12%, Science 3%, Construction 9%, Repair 5%, material moving 4%, Facilities 5%


1988:  (46-52 R)        +6 R
2000:  (33-62 R)        +29 R
2004:  (33-66 R)        +33 R
2008:  (39-58 R)        +19 R
2012:  (35-60 R)        +25 R
2016:  (23-66 R)        +43 R

Let's roll into what exists for precinct level data to see if we can pick up any additional data...

1.) Precinct #1 appears to have combined the classic precinct of Arlington, as well as Olex, smaller i population and much more rural and possibly more ranching country than grain farmers ().

38.5 % of County Vote

1992: (34 D- 38 R- 28 Perot)         +4 R
2012: (29 D- 66 R)                        +37 R
2016: (21 D- 68 R)                        +47 R     (+10% R Swing)



2.) Precinct # 6 Condon East---- (26.7% of County Vote)

1992: (39 D- 36 R- 25 Perot)        +3 %  D
2012: (32 D- 65 R)                       +31% R
2016: (24 D- 69 R)                       +45 % R      (+14% R Swing)

3.) Precinct #7 Condon West---- (34.7% of County Vote)

1992: (36 D- 36 R- 29 Perot)        +0% D/R
2012: (44 D- 50 R)                       +6% R
2016: (26 D- 61 R)                       +35 % R      (+26% R Swing)



Idk... why "West Condon" was generally much more receptive to Obama in '12 and swung so hard towards Trump in '16 vs "East Condon"....

The only thing that springs to mind is a much larger ranching community in East Condon, and a bit more timber industry component in West Condon....

Maybe someone has additional insights here???

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #26: Morrow County



Pop 11.2k--- MHI $49.9k/Yr--- 64% White, 32% Latino

Relative Occupations: 14% Farming, 6% Material Movement, 5% Repair, 1 % Law Enforcement, 10% Production, 6% Construction, 1% Fire fighting

Relative Industries: 21% Agriculture, 15% manufacturing, 10% retail

1988: (46-51 R)              +5 % R
1992: (34-34*- 32 I)      +0 % R
2000: (33-62 R)             +29% R
2004: (33-66 R)             +33% R
2008: (35-62 R)             +27% R
2012: (31-65 R)             +34% R
2016: (24-65 R)             +41% R

Although I lump Morrow County into the "Grain Belt" along the Columbia River gorge of Eastern Oregon, in many ways it is more similar to Umatilla County to the East, in terms of the demographic profile and occupational composition of the population.

It has a much large manufacturing component, heavily concentrated in the food processing industry, as well as one of the largest Latino populations of almost all counties in Oregon.

In theory, one might have expected the 2016 "Latino surge" to hit heavily here, but the reality is that even excepting the foreign national guest worker component of the population, a significant majority of the Latino population is <18 years old, and actually over 40% of the population of the <10 age bracket.

As much as 50% of the county population is likely Migratory and season workers and family members under H-2B visas working in the agricultural and food processing industries....

Let's take a stroll through the precincts of Morrow County:

1.) Boardman--- Accounts for 25% of the voting population of the county and is 60% Latino.

The city economy is heavily dominated by potato processing manufacturing facilities....



This is the most heavily Democratic precinct in Morrow County...

Pres:

2012: (38-57 R)    +19 R
2016: (37-51 R)    +14 R   (+5% Dem Swing)

Note: Although the exact precincts might be slightly different, it is important to note, that Ross Perot actually won the City of Boardman in 1992:  (32 D- 33 R-34 I)

US Senate:

2010: (45-50 R)     +5 R
2014: (41-48 R)     +7 R
2016: (49-38 D)     +11 D

OR Gov:

2010: (31-62 R)     +31 R
2014: (35-58 R)     +23 R
2016: (40-52 R)     +12 R

Although it doesn't appear that a Latino surge made much difference at the Presidential level, in terms of increased support for the Democratic Pres candidate, it does appear that this played a factor at the US Senate and US Gov election level.... My suspicion is that Latino Millennials were more sympathetic to 3rd Party candidates at the Presidential level here, and that similar to another Latino majority city in Oregon, Woodburn, there was a significant dropoff in Republican support without a corresponding increase in Democratic support. Of course, some of that might be that Anglos that backed Obama in '12 swung towards Trump in these precincts and were offset by increased Latino support for Clinton.

2.) Irrigon---- Includes the City of Irrigon and possibly part of the surrounding area and is 33% of the Voting Population....

The City is in the NE part of the County along the Columbia River, and is a mainly a food and agricultural feed processing town.

Pop 2.1k.... 38% Latino... MHI $50.8k,

Relative Occupations: 11.6% Material Handling, 8.1% Farming, 2.8% Firefighting, 13.6% Production, 7.6% Transportation, 5.8% Repair.

Relative Industries- 14.5% Agriculture, 0.4% Oil/Gas/Mining, 10% Transportation, 25% Manufacturing, 1.4% Utilities, 5.9% Government, 13.9% Retail



US Pres:

2012: (34- 63 R)        +31 R
2016: (24- 66 R)        +42 R      (+11% Rep Swing)

So interestingly enough a complete collapse in Democratic support between '12 and '16, with only a marginal Republican gain....

Bonus--- 1992---  (34-27-38   Dem-Rep-Perot)

US Sen:

2010:  (44-49 R)        +5 R
2014:  (37-54 R)        +17 R
2016:  (40-48 R)        +8 R

US Gov:

2010:  (33-61 R)         +28 R
2014:  (31-63 R)         +32 R
2016:  (30-63 R)         +33 R

3.)  Lexington and surrounding areas----  (8% of County Votes)

Squarely located within the Grain Belt of Central Morrow County, it is not only much more heavily Anglo than the Columbia River parts of the County to the North, but additionally the area is not only less dependent upon a foreign national labor force (Mechanized farming vs labor intensive agriculture) but additionally grain as a commodity can at least be stored until market values recover, unlike more perishable products such as dairy and fruits/vegetables.

The collapse of domestic agricultural pricing and a glut of product within the domestic US Market, has led many farmers and agricultural producers (Particularly those on the West Coast of the US) to attempt to increase exports to the rapidly growing markets of Asia, which is why I am so perplexed at "Dairy Country" in particular swinging hard towards Trump, and to some extent the grain producing farmers as well throughout the country....



US PRES:

2012: (19-76 R)            +57 R
2016: (12-79 R)            +67 R     (+10% Rep Swing)

1992: (29-46-26)     D-R-Perot)201

So, just a few years after Dukakis did extremely well in the "Grain Belt" of America, including North-Central Oregon, the Dakotas, etc.... we still see a fairly decent Democratic Presidential chunk of the vote here....

US SEN:

2010:    (30-67 R)      +37 R
2014:    (21-69 R)      +47 R
2016:    (29-60 R)      +31 R


OR GOV:

2010:  (14-83 R)     +69 R
2014:  (15-82 R)     +67 R
2016:  (12-79 R)     +67 R

4.) Ione- 8% of County Vote

Similar story to Lexington and class small town iconic Americana as a local small town that supports a wider agricultural what producing region in terms of basic services and retail opportunities...



US PRES:

2012: (22-78 R)       +56 R
2016: (18-73 R)       +55 R

US SEN:

2010: (40-58 R)      +18 R
2014: (27-66 R)      +39 R
2016: (43-52 R)      +9 R

Wow---- So Ron Wyden actually significantly shrinks the gap here between '10 and '16, while the precinct is overwhelmingly supporting Trump, albeit with a 4-5% drop in both the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates level of support.

OR GOV:

2010:  (18-81R)     +63 R
2014:  (20-77 R)    +57 R
2016:  (21-76 R)    +55 R

5.) Heppner--- This includes a town of about 1.1k, as well as much of the rural part of the county, so once you amalgamate both you are looking at 26% of the County Vote.

It is the county seat, and although I don't have access to exact precinct boundaries in Morrow County, it appears to be much more heavily "cattle country" than "grain country".

The town and rural areas are fairly heavily White, even by Oregon standards, but the myth of Cowboys being mainly White, which is also heavily reinforced by "New Country" singer-songwriters and Country Music in general, definitely doesn't recognize the significant and growing population of Latinos working as farmhands in the ranching industry in much of the Western United States.

I do have to admit Garth and Alan Jackson are some of my favorite "New Country" artists (and am definitely showing my age there), but anyways I'll save the real Rodeo for when I hit Pendleton Oregon and Umatilla County...



US PRES:

2012: (28-68 R)        +40 R
2016: (19-72 R)        +63 R       (+23% R Swing)

1992: (38-34-28   D-R-Perot)    +4 D

So, Democrats actually used to do extremely well in Cowboy Country in Oregon, barely over 20 years ago.... A 50% vote collapse between '92 and '16.

US SEN:

2010:  (47-50R)     +3 R
2014:  (37-57 R)    +20 R
2016:  (41-52 R)    +11 R

So Oregon Cowboys apparently generally are chill with Ron Wyden, and even if we look at the Merkley brand (He appeals more to mill workers and rural timber communities in Western Oregon), he still bagged 2x the vote that HRC did in '16.

OR GOV:

2010:  (24-73R)     +59 R
2014:  (24-69 R)    +45 R
2016:  (21-72 R)    +51 R

There is definitely a path forward for Democrats in Morrow County, that combines both restoring margins among the heavily food processing plants of the Columbia River communities of Boardman and Irrigon, with a rapidly growing Latino majority), as well as performing well in the "Cowboy Belt" in the Southern Part of the County....

This is NOT just an Oregon scenario, but if Democrats can actually play well in places like Morrow County, which is more akin to Eastern Montana than most parts of Oregon in many ways, this opens up a much more competitive scenario.

Democrats at a national level can either chose to focus on suburban and exurban voters and consign themselves to a permanent US House and Senate minority status, or actually fight for rural and small town America, where there is a deep yearning for political leaders of both parties to actually address the specific needs of communities that have been left behind for decades.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #27: Wheeler County



Pop- 1.3k, MHI $38.0k/Yr, 94.3% White, 2.6% Latino, 52% is 60+ Years Old

Relative Occupations: 9.8% Farming, 2.3% Law Enforcement, 8.6% Construction, 19.6% Management, 6.1% Transportation, 8.4% Education

Relative Industries: 1.9% Oil, Gas, & Mining, 18.9% Agriculture, 11% Government, 5.1% Entertainment, 11.7% Construction, 13% Education

Although most Oregonians tend to think of the area because of the John Day Fossil Monument, and tourist related activities, historically the backbone of the county economy was more logging up through the late '70s and early '80s, as well as non-forestry related agriculture, which is still a significant element of the counties economy and workforce. As is often the case in smaller isolated rural communities, government related employment is a disproportionate share of the counties workforce. Tourism is certainly a component, but is often seasonal with people drawn to fishing and water recreation on the John Day River, the Fossil Beds National Monument areas, and the annual Memorial Day Rodeo in Spray, Oregon.

Politically, in recent years it has tended to be a fairly Republican County in Presidential and Statewide elections.

US Presidential--- Wheeler County

1988: (41% D- 55% R)                      +14 R
1992: (32% D- 42% R- 27% Perot)    +12 R
2000: (24% D- 69% R)                      +45 R
2004: (28% D- 70% R)                      +42 R
2008: (35% D- 61% R)                      +26 R
2012: (31% D- 64% R)                      +33 R
2016: (19% D- 72% R)                      +53 R

Let's take a look at the three precincts in the county for greater detail:

Fossil--- 47% of County Votes



Includes the largest town in the county Fossil (Pop 450) and likely some rural outskirts. The town used to be heavily dominated by the timber industry, with a company-owned mill town of Kinzoa located about 7 Miles East of town that operated between 1927 and 1978. At one point Fossil had a population of 800 people, and after the mill closed down the population collapsed by close to 50%.

US Presidential:

1992: 379 Votes---- (31% D- 39% R- 30% Perot)          +8 R
2004: 406 Votes---- (32% D- 60% R)                           +28 R
2008: 352 Votes---  (43% D- 52% R)                            +9 R
2012: 400 Votes--   (38% D- 58% R)                            +20 R
2016: 382 Votes--   (22% D- 66% R)                            +44 R    (+24% R Swing)

US Senate

2004: (63 26 R)                                                       +37 D
2008: (32-59 R)                                                       +27 R
2010: (58-39 D)                                                       +19 D
2014: (47-47 Tie)                                                     +0 D/R
2016: (53-37 D)                                                       +16 D

OR-Gov:

2006: (37-49 R)                                                       +12 R
2010: (36-59 R)                                                       +23 R
2014: (38-57 R)                                                       +19 R
2016: (29-64 R)                                                       +35 R

Mitchell--- (25% of County Total)



2nd largest town in the county. It started as a stagecoach stop down back in the mid 1800s on a route between The Dalles and the gold mining areas of Eastern Oregon, and later shifted into being an agricultural and cattle area, along with a major logging company Hudspeth Land & Logging company being a major employer until the 1980s.

US Presidential

1992: 243 Votes (30 D- 44.0 R- 26 Perot)                        +14 R
2004: 267 Votes (27 D- 67 R)                                          +40 R
2008: 230 Votes (33 D- 63 R)                                          +30 R
2012: 232 Votes (32 D- 63 R)                                          +31 R
2016: 206 Votes (20 D- 74 R)                                         +54 R   (+23% R Swing)

US Senate:

2004: (49 D- 40 R)                                                          +9 D
2008: (26 D- 66 R)                                                          +40 R
2010: (37 D- 54 R)                                                          +17 R
2014: (41 D- 50 R)                                                          + 9 R
2016: (40 D- 56 R)                                                          +16 R

OR Gov:

2006: (29 D- 64 R)                             +35 R
2010: (29 D- 66 R)                             +37 R
2014: (29 D- 63 R)                             +34 R
2016: (22 D- 75 R)                             +53 R

Spray- Oregon (28% of County Vote)

Located along the John Day River, Spray is perhaps best known for its annual Memorial Day Rodeo. The local economy is heavily dependent on agriculture and livestock, and to a lesser extent tourism.



US Presidential:

1992: 229 Votes (34 D- 41 R- 20 Perot)                +7 R
2004: 243 Votes (18 D- 77 R)                               +59 R
2008: 230 Votes (24 D- 74 R)                               +50 R
2012: 226 Votes (19 D- 74 R)                               +53 R
2016: 230 Votes (12 D- 81 R)                               +69 R       (+16% R Swing)

US Senate:

2004:  (44 D- 42 R)          +2 D
2008:  (20 D- 71 R)          +51 R
2010:  (28 D- 69 R)          +41 R
2014:  (29 D- 57 R)          +38 R
2016:  (33 D- 60 R)          +27 R

OR Gov:

2006: (26 D- 64 R)           +38 R
2010: (18 D- 78 R)           +60 R
2014: (16 D- 75 R)           +59 R
2016: (16 D- 76 R)           +60 R


1.) So one of the items that is interesting about Wheeler county is the extent to which Democratic US Senate candidates outperform Presidential candidates. The one exception was 2008, when you had an incumbent Republican Senator from Eastern Oregon, who performed quite well throughout the region, although ultimately losing to Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley.

2.) The swing towards Trump was astronomical between '12 and '16 (23-24%) in both the most Democratic Precinct in the County (Fossil) as well as in Mitchell...

Fossil went from only +9 R in '08 to +44 R in '16.... considering the propensity of the largest precinct in the county to frequently back Democrats for the US Senate, the key question is was the performance of Obama in 2008 an deviance from the norm, or is simply that a rural/ small-town precinct doesn't feel that they are getting the attention and their interests represented by Democratic US Presidential candidates...  Jeff Merkley tied the precinct in 2014 in an off year election, so its pretty clear that populist progressive Democrats can play ball pretty well out here.

3.) As I have commented elsewhere, Democratic Gubernatorial results are generally abysmal in many rural parts of Oregon... That is the upstate/downstate dynamic always in play for those types of statewide elections...  the fact that HRC even did worse than the Democratic candidate for Governor of Oregon out here is pretty telling.

4.) Interestingly enough, there appears to have been a minor down-ballot impact for the US Senate race in the two more "Democratic" precincts in the County comparing Wyden's 2010 vs 2016 results, but in the most Republican precinct (Spray) there was actually a +14% D swing between '10 and '16.... Not sure exactly what to make of that, but it is certainly noteworthy.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update # 28: Baker County Part I---- Pop 16.1k



Baker County was essentially uninhabited until 1861, was the exception of small Native American population and travelers heading West along the Oregon trail, until the discovery of Gold led to a major population boom, with the historic ghost town of Auburn boosting 5,000 residents within a few years of the discovery.

Although the Gold Rush was short lived, there was still mining in the area, it led to a regional population boom as a transportation corridor starting with the statecoaches and later a major railroad line, and by 1900 Baker City had a population larger than that of Spokane or Boise within the "Inland Empire" region.

It is also worthy to note that Baker County is part of the "Mormon Belt" of Eastern Oregon, likely because the Oregon Railway and Navigation Company that built a line to Baker City, a few years later attracted the Oregon Lumber Company to Baker City. The company was owned by Mormons from Salt Lake City, and likely played a major role in attracting Mormons to the region over between the late 1880s and early 1920s. Currently almost 9% of Baker County are LDS members.

Today, Baker County still has a large agricultural component, and although logging is a pale shadow of what it was even 30-40 years ago, still is a part of the counties economy, as well as a mixture of tourism, government services, and hospitality related activities, as well as serving as a "regional" retail hub.

Ethnically: 92.3% White, 3.5% Latino

Income- MHI $41.5k/Yr

Age- 37% 60+ Years

Relative Occupations: 3.7% Social Svcs, 1.2% Law Enforcement, 2.1% Health Care, 2.7% Farming, 4.4% Transportation, 5.3% Construction, 7.0% Education, 1.2% Fire Fighting, 3.4% Repair, 11.7% Management, 5.1% Personal Care, 14.6% Administration

Relative Industries: 0.6% Oil, Gas, & Mining, 2.7% Utilities, 16.3% Agriculture, 3.4% Information, 6.1% Government, 12.9% Retail, 7.8% Hospitality, 5.7% Construction

Politically, at a Presidential and generally statewide level Baker County has been reliably Republican for quite a few decades, although this was not always the case.

1988: (42 D- 54 R)                        +12 R
1992: (32 D- 38 R- 29 Perot)         +6 R
2000: (27 D- 68 R)                        +41 R
2004: (29 D- 69 R)                        +40 R
2008: (32 D- 64 R)                        +32 R
2012: (28 D- 68 R)                        +40 R
2016: (20 D- 71 R)                        +51 R

So doesn't look like many McCain/Romney voters switching over to Clinton, but it does look like there were a number of Obama '08 and/or '12 voters that went Trump in '16. Again, most of the loss of the Democratic Candidate vote appears to have gone for 3rd Party candidates....

US Senate:

2002: (21-76 R)                       +55 R
2004: (50-46 D)                       +4 D
2008: (26-66 R)                       +40 R
2010: (40-55 R)                       +15 R
2014: (33-60 R)                       +27 R
2016: (39-54 R)                       +15 R

So note that with the exception of the '02 and '08 US Senate races where Republican Gordon Smith from Eastern Oregon was on the ballot, generally as a whole the county is much more receptive to Democratic US Senate candidates than Presidential or Gubernatorial Candidates. Also, Democratic Senator Merkley did not perform nearly as well as Wyden out here, he still exceeded the level of support of Democratic Presidential candidates from '92 to '16.

Let's take a look at some of the individual communities in the county...

1.) Baker City--- Pop 9.8k--- MHI $37.2k/Yr--- 55% of County Voters



One of the largest cities in Eastern Oregon both historically and to the present, Baker City's is now only the 3rd largest City in that part of the state, lagging behind Pendleton and La Grande.

It did place in the top two slot for "the coolest small town in America", because of the City's rich history, and proximity to some extremely rugged, remote and beautiful location's in the Western United States.

http://www.oregonlive.com/travel/index.ssf/2016/05/is_baker_city_the_coolest_smal.html

As a major regional center, it's occupations by industry are more heavily concentrated in health care, retail, and hospitality (43% of the workforce), and a smaller than statewide average, but growing manufacturing sector, with 4 employers with a total of 450 employees in the mfg sector.

US Presidential:

1992: (32 D- 38 R- 29 Perot)                           +6 R
2004: (32 D- 67 R)                                          +35 R
2008: (34 D- 60 R)                                          +26 R
2012: (31 D- 66 R)                                          +35 R
2016: (22 D- 68 R)                                          +46 R

US Senate

2004: (53 D- 43 R)                                          +10 D
2008: (34 D- 60 R)                                          +26 R
2010: (44 D- 52 R)                                          + 8 R
2014: (36 D- 56 R)                                          +20 R
2016: (41 D- 50 R)                                          + 9 R

OR Gov

2006: (37 D- 56 R)                                         + 19 R
2010: (30 D- 65 R)                                         + 35 R
2014: (30 D- 64 R)                                         + 34 R
2016: (26 D- 66 R)                                         + 40 R

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #28: Baker County--- Part II

So time to take a stroll through the other 45% of Baker County, which is pretty much all small town and rural to see what's going on in various other communities.

First stop, the most Democratic part of Baker County over the past few decades.

2.) Huntington, Oregon--- Pop 500--- 2.7% of County Vote



A small town right over the Snake River border between Oregon and Idaho in the SE part of the county on Highway I-84. For years the local economy was dominated by a local cement plant, which was built during the Great Depression to supply cement to the Owyhee Dam over the Snake River, and after for various other regional commercial purposes. That Mill was shut down in the '70s once the Limestone ran out, and a new plant was built a few miles West of Town, while the old one became both a DEQ and EPA hazardous waste site, as well as inspiring numerous legions of ghost hunters to investigate the mysterious happenings at this old facility.

http://archive.lyza.com/2009/09/29/weekend-abandoned-cement-plant-in-lime-oregon/

Tourism has always been an element of the local economy, mainly as a result of some pretty dank fishing to be had off of this portion of the Snake River, as well as "base camp" to explore some of the Wild & Scenic areas nearby.

Now Weed tourism is on the rise, since Huntington is the only place within 250 Miles, within Oregon where one allows recreational Cannabis shops, not to mention to constant stream of visitors from Prohibitionist Idaho, earning it the nickname, as the "busiest weed store in Oregon"

http://www.portlandmercury.com/cannabuzz/2017/03/15/18893138/a-small-oregon-town-triumphs-with-cannabis

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2017/03/pot_sales_to_idaho_residents_b.html

US Presidential:

1992: (44 D- 25 R- 30 Perot)           +19 D
2004: (45 D- 53 R)                          +8 R
2008: (41 D- 49 R)                          +8 R
2012: (41 D- 51 R)                          +10 R
2016: (19 D- 70 R)                          +51 R    (+41% R Swing).....   Damn!!! Biggest in Oregon???

US Senate:

2004: (66 D- 30 R)                          +36 D
2008: (41 D-49 R)                           +8 R
2010: (52 D- 40 R)                          +12 D
2014: (49 D- 42 R)                          +7 D
2016: (44 D- 37 R)                          +7 D

OR GOV:

2006: (44 D- 42 R)                         +2 D
2010: (33 D- 57 R)                         +24 R
2014: (40 D- 53 R)                         +13 R
2016: (29 D- 60 R)                         +31 R

3.) Pine Valley Rural--- 6.7% of County Vote



This is a rural precinct located in the NE part of the County, starting outside of the small town of Halfway, Oregon. It's basically a gateway to the Wild & Scenic Hell's Canyon area, and there is plethora of year round outdoor activities from white-water rafting in the Summer to snowboarding in the Winter.

It is a precinct that is sometimes more receptive to Democratic candidates than many others in the county, and appears to include both the small town of Halfway and surrounding area.

US President:

1992: (39 D- 28 R- 33 Perot)          +11 D.... Perot actually placed 2nd here which is notable
2004: (38 D- 60 R)                         +22 R     (2nd most Dem Pct in the County)
2008: (39 D- 59 R)                         +20 R
2012: (39 D- 57 R)                         +18 R     (2nd most Dem Pct in County)
2016: (28 D- 63 R)                         +35 R     (Most Dem Pct in cty)

US Senate:

2004: (53 D- 43 R)                        +10 D
2008: (35 D- 58 R)                        +23 R
2010: (40 D- 54 R)                        +14 R
2014: (44 D- 50 R)                        +6 R
2016: (43 D- 50 R)                        +7 R

OR GOV:

2006: (45 D- 50 R)                        +5 R   (Most Dem Pct)
2010: (40 D- 54 R)                        +14 R (Most Dem Pct)
2014: (37 D- 60 R)                        +23 R
2016: (29 D- 63 R)                        +34 R

ok.... time to take a peak at the most Republican rural precincts in the county....

4.) Durkee, Herford, Keating & Unity (4.6% of County Vote)

A. Durkee- Small community a few miles NW of Huntington, and home to Ash Grove Cement, where high levels of mercury in the concrete are a major Federal issue, likely caused by natural geological conditions.



US Pres:

1992: (37 D- 33 R- 30 Perot)            +4 D
2004: (16 D- 84 R)                           +68 R
2008: (8 D- 82 R)                             +74 R
2012: (7 D- 83 R)                             +76 R
2016: (5 D- 94 R)                             +89 R

US Senate:

2004: (40 D- 55 R)                          +15 R
2008: (13 D- 76 R)                          +63 R
2010: (19 D- 73 R)                          +54 R
2014: (14 D- 82 R)                          +68 R
2016: (13 D- 81 R)                          +68 R





B.) Hereford--- Ranching Country. Precinct named after local ranch



US PRES:

1992: (6 D- 68 R- 26 Perot)              +62 R
2004: (10 D- 86 R)                           +76 R
2008: (9 D- 79 R)                             +70 R
2012: (6 D- 86 R)                             +80 R
2016: (5 D- 89 R)                             +84 R

US SEN:

2004: (18 D- 78 R)                          +60 R
2008: (9 D-   79 R)                          +70 R
2010: (16 D- 82 R)                          +66 R
2014: (7 D-   87 R)                          +80 R
2016: (20 D- 71 R)                          +51 R



C.) Keating--- rural livestock & animal feed pct outside of Baker City



1992: (16 D- 50 R- 34 Perot)             +34 R
2004: (10 D- 88 R)                            +78 R
2008: (15 D- 83 R)                            +68 R
2012: (14 D- 81 R)                            +67 R
2016: (9 D-   81 R)                            +72 R

US SEN:

2004: (29 D- 67 R)                          +38 R
2008: (9 D-   90 R)                          +81 R
2010: (25 D- 72 R)                          +47 R
2014: (19 D- 78 R)                          +59 R
2016: (22 D- 73 R)                          +51 R

D.) Unity--- Small ranching community in the SW Part of the County



1992: (28 D- 42 R- 29 Perot)             +14 R
2004: (17 D- 83 R)                            +66 R
2008: (22 D- 70 R)                            +48 R
2012: (17 D- 75 R)                            +58 R
2016: (7  D-  91 R)                            +84 R

US SEN:

2004: (40 D- 61 R)                          +21 R
2008: (17 D- 81 R)                          +64 R
2010: (30 D- 65 R)                          +35 R
2014: (13 D- 85 R)                          +72 R
2016: (15 D- 81 R)                          +66 R

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Update #29- Umatilla County--- Pop 76.3k- MHI $ 48.4k/Yr



Many, myself included were curious to see what impact the large Latino population might have in the 2016 Presidential Election results....

The largest county by population located solely within the 2nd Congressional District of Oregon, other than Deschutes County.

It is county heavily dominated by agriculture, with 1,603 farms, roughly 60% cropland and 30% pasture land, with almost 50% of the farms less than 50 acres.

It ranks 3rd in Oregon for total value of agricultural products sold, 1st the State in terms of grains, 2nd for vegetables, and 4th for sheep/goats and horses.

Additionally, it has a large number of agricultural product processing plants that are a significant amount of both the labor force, and local economy, processing a wide variety of agricultural products from Eatern Washington, Eastern Oregon, and even the Snake River areas of Idaho.

Fully 10.4% of the jobs are in the agricultural industry, 7.3% in the Governmental industry, 5.1% in Transportation, and 12.9% in Retail.

In terms of relative occupations, 7% is farming, 2.2% law enforcement, 5.5% in material movement, and 5.2% in transportation.

Ethnically, it has one of the highest percentages of Latinos of almost any county in Oregon, 24% of the county, as well as a large Native American population centered around the Umatilla Indian Reservation East of Pendleton, and only 69% of the population is Anglo.

However, it should be noted, that it has an estimated 9.9k of Migrant/Seasonal Workers/Dependents in the county, the vast majority of whom are under H2-A Visas, as farmer and food processing facilities have expanded their requests to deal with a local shortage of labor for these jobs.

Also, a large number of Latino US Citizens are under the age of 18, as well as Adult Latino Citizens who work in the the fields frequently moving from region to region to harvest the crops, and much less likely to participate in elections as a result.

Umatilla County is also part of the "Mormon Belt" of Eastern Oregon, and almost 10% of the population are estimated to be LDS members, including the Last Republican Senator from Oregon, Gordon Smith, who is actually related to the family Udall political family of the Western United States with many prominent elected officials over the decades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_H._Smith

Umatilla County will be interesting to watch over the next few decades, since although for the most part there is scant evidence of a massive Latino voting surge, as the next generation comes of age--- the sons and daughters of fieldworkers and food factory workers, to see how the county shifts politically.

Politically, although Umatilla County has shifted Republican at a Presidential Level since 1988, their vote share has also remained impressively stagnant all the way between 2000 and 2016.

So.... let's take a look at the "boring stuff" Presidential, US Senate, and OR Governor results at the County level going back a few cycles.... which most of y'all can look up on the Elections tab, but again I'll save everyone the trouble and just make a few lists, before delving into Precinct level data in Part II, and maybe even part III, since I just found a bunch of Oregon Precinct data that I thought I had tossed a decade or so back.

US President:

1988: (44 D- 54 R)               +10 R
1992: (35 D- 36 R- 29 Perot)     + 1 R
2000: (34 D- 61 R)               +27 R
2004: (34 D- 65 R)               +31 R
2008: (37 D- 60 R)               +23 R
2012: (35 D- 62 R)               +27 R
2016: (28 D- 62 R)               +34 R

US Senate:

1990: (43 D- 57 R)              +14 R

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Oregon,_1990

1992: (36 D- 64 R)              +28 R

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Oregon,_1992

2002: (24 D- 72 R)              +48 R
2004: (58 D- 38 R)              +20 D
2008: (24 D- 72 R)              +48 R
2010: (42 D- 54 R)              +12 R
2014: (36 D- 57 R)              +21 R
2016: (42 D- 48 R)              +6  R

OR GOV:

1986: (47 D- 53 R)             +6 R
1990: (40 D- 42 R- 16 OCA)     +2 R

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Citizens_Alliance

https://oregonencyclopedia.org/articles/oregon_citizens_alliance/#.WQva5-Xyu00

2002: (38 D- 58 R)             +20 R
2006: (38 D- 56 R)             +18 R
2010: (32 D- 64 R)             +32 R
2014: (29 D- 65 R)             +36 R
2016: (32 D- 61 R)             +29 R

Bonus---

1990: Ballot Initiative #8: Banning Abortion with (3 exceptions)

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Prohibition_of_Abortion_and_Exceptions,_Measure_8_(1990)

36% Yes--- 64% No

1990: Ballot Initiative #10: Parental Notification for Minors performing Abortions

53% Yes--- 47% No

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Notice_to_Minor%E2%80%99s_Parents_Before_an_Abortion,_Measure_10_(1990)