Remaining votes (Update: about 500K ballots left to count nationwide)

[NOVA Green]

arizona is now closer than NC.....

So for all of the attention that Clinton paid to NC, would it have made more sense to focus on AZ instead for an unexpected wildcard flip scenario?

Obviously the messanger, the message, and the campaign should have focused more on the Rust Belt than they did, but would AZ have been a better potential flip as part of an "expanding the map strategy" than NC?

[NOVA Green]

arizona is now closer than NC.....

So for all of the attention that Clinton paid to NC, would it have made more sense to focus on AZ instead for an unexpected wildcard flip scenario?

Obviously the messanger, the message, and the campaign should have focused more on the Rust Belt than they did, but would AZ have been a better potential flip as part of an "expanding the map strategy" than NC?

Well, it stands to reason that a message tailored toward AZ would pay dividends in Florida as well (retirees + Hispanics).  If a Clinton/Becerra ticket, for example, was able to flip both FL and AZ, that gets her just barely over 270.  Based on 2012-16 trends and Trump's likely governing style, that might actually be the path of least resistance in 2020.  We now know the Clinton campaign had a lot of bad data in general. At this rate, NC might not even trend left this year.  It's really been nothing but tilting at windmills in NC since 2010, and the high Dem investment has only egged on the ridiculous behavior of the state government there.

Well, this is one of the things that most confused me about the "Air Wars" this GE, in that neither candidate seemed to focus much on micro-targeting in the advertising campaigns...

For example, where were the Clinton adds in AZ, FL, PA, OH, WI, and MI doing a "compare and contrast" on Medicare/Medicaid/ Social Security?

Where were the adds in the "Rust Belt" on bread and butter economic issues?

Instead most of Clinton's ads focused on Trumps personality, judgement, experience, and influence on the youth of America...

One could argue that Trump did not produce any real micro-targeted ads as well.

It seemed that this election was so nationalized to the point that both campaigns made strategic decisions to ignore key voting blocks throughout our great nation, and arguably this benefited Trump more than Clinton when it came to messaging in the Industrial Midwest, as well as similar parts of Pennsylvania.

[NOVA Green]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        63.66 million     47.98%
Trump         61.95 million     46.69%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.24 million     48.14%
Trump         63.05 million     46.52%

For a Clinton victory of 1.62%

I suspect the true size of victory will be smaller than this since all things equal the estimate of outstanding ballots are overestimated since not all of them necessary voted for President.

Not quite sure where you are pulling the estimated vote outstanding numbers from, but it is important to note that in California the "Unprocessed Ballot Report" overstates the number outstanding, since it is the last to update based upon when counties decide to process. The county websites are generally better, since some of the larger counties post more updated information than has been provided to the state, but even so many counties don't update those numbers frequently, plus some of the provisional and miscellaneous ballots will be thrown out for various reasons.

[NOVA Green]

The following states have certified (or all but in name) their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
AL           58.6%                    58.9%          0.3%
AK          58.7%                    61.3%          2.6%
AZ          52.6%                    54.3%          1.7%
AR          50.7%                    52.6%          1.9%
CA          55.1%                    55.6%          0.5%
CO          69.9%                    69.9%          0.0%
CT          61.3%                    63.9%          2.6%
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           44.2%                    41.7%         -2.5%
ID           59.8%                    59.4%         -0.4%
IL           58.9%                    61.6%          2.7%
IA           70.3%                     68.2%       -2.1%
KS           56.9%                    57.3%         0.4%
KY           55.7%                    58.7%         3.0%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
ME          68.2%                    70.7%         2.5%
MD          66.6%                    66.2%        -0.4%
MA          65.9%                    66.8%          0.9%
MI           64.7%                    64.7%        -0.1%
MN          76.0%                    74.1%        -1.9%
MS          59.3%                    55.5%        -3.8%
MO          62.2%                   62.1%         -0.1%
MT          62.5%                    61.5%        -1.0%
NE          60.3%                    62.4%         2.1%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%         0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%         1.3%
NJ           61.5%                    63.6%         2.1%
NM          54.6%                   54.7%         0.1%
NY           53.1%                   55.7%         2.6%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OH          64.5%                    62.8%        -1.7%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%         2.8%
OR          63.1%                    66.6%         3.5%
RI           58.0%                    59.0%          1.0%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
SD          59.3%                    58.5%         -0.8%
TN          51.9%                    51.2%         -0.7%
TX          49.6%                     51.2%         1.6%
UT          55.5%                    56.8%          1.3%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WA         64.8%                    65.7%          0.9%
WV         46.3%                    49.9%         3.6%
WI          72.9%                    69.3%        -3.6%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

I have no idea where you are getting this information..... but according to the Oregon Secretary of State website the turnout of registered voters is actually 80.3% and not the 66.6% you have listed....

Not sure if it a typo, or if it is pulled from a bogus website, but the Oregon numbers are straight from the horse's mouth.... it also makes we wonder about the accuracy of the rest of the numbers posted about. Maybe you are posting "eligable voter" numbers instead of registered voter turnout numbers ?

http://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/participation-stats-11-2016.pdf

[NOVA Green]

The following states have certified (or all but in name) their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

I have no idea where you are getting this information..... but according to the Oregon Secretary of State website the turnout of registered voters is actually 80.3% and not the 66.6% you have listed....

Not sure if it a typo, or if it is pulled from a bogus website, but the Oregon numbers are straight from the horse's mouth.... it also makes we wonder about the accuracy of the rest of the numbers posted about. Maybe you are posting "eligable voter" numbers instead of registered voter turnout numbers ?

http://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/participation-stats-11-2016.pdf

Registered voter (turnout) numbers are misleading.

Turnout is always based on the VEP (voting eligible population) to compare US numbers with European or other turnout.

The number of registered voters in the US is significantly lower than the VEP, therefore the turnout among RV is much higher and misleading. Many people in the US who are eligible simply are not registered to vote.

ok--- so basically what I suspected when reviewing the list....

I'm still a bit surprised at the Oregon numbers, since we have an automatic DMV registration deal for new voters and those that have to change their stuff with the DMV, however maybe it's a lag since we have something like a seven year period before people need to renew their driver's licenses.... still surprised that turnout would be higher in Colorado.... doesn't totally make sense, but I'll give you NH because of the culture of voter registration out there...